Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,759
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 2, 2022 7:46:43 GMT
Staffordshire South East (which was the forerunner of this seat) back in 1996 when there was a by-election there saw the following ratio changes:
Con -43%, Lab +58%, Lib Dem -50%
If those ratios were repeated at a by-election, the result would be: Con 38%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 3%, therefore Labour would absolutely fancy a Tamworth by-election.
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Post by batman on Jul 2, 2022 8:14:39 GMT
Labour was much further ahead in the opinion polls in 1996 than they are now. I wouldn't say Tamworth is unwinnable, but it would be a very tough ask.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2022 8:21:43 GMT
Labour was much further ahead in the opinion polls in 1996 than they are now. I wouldn't say Tamworth is unwinnable, but it would be a very tough ask. I think you are right - but it does highlight Labour's difficulties in terms of voter distribution. This is a traditional marginal, the sort of seat which has very high swings, but also the sort of seat - very white, Midlands, small town - where they have notably fallen back. It was a Labour seat from 1996-2010. It now has a 20000 Conservative majority. That's quite some shift. If Labour can't win back Tamworth, and similar seats, then they will need other types of seats which they can win or the best they can do is largest party status.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 2, 2022 8:36:15 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2022 8:48:49 GMT
Times front page has more on Pincher…I think we’re close to by-election time again. It would give a major boost to Boris Johnson to potentially win a by-election. The swing in Wakefield was 12.7%, the swing required in Tamworth is 21.3%. Literally everybody who has speculated on a possible Tamworth byelection has said the Tories would still hold it as things stand. So I'm not convinced about "major boost", really. Conversely though, if it *was* somehow lost Johnson's end would surely be nigh.
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Post by president1 on Jul 2, 2022 8:50:10 GMT
Does anyone have the figures (for the council election results in May) for the wards that comprise the Tamworth constituency? ie vote share, gains/losses I have figures for Tamworth Borough Council, but assume that these may cover wards outside the constituency? Thank you en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tamworth_Borough_Council_election
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2022 8:58:22 GMT
Does anyone have the figures (for the council election results in May) for the wards that comprise the Tamworth constituency? ie vote share, gains/losses I have figures for Tamworth Borough Council, but assume that these may cover wards outside the constituency? Thank you en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tamworth_Borough_Council_electionThe whole of Tamworth borough is in the constituency - as are the District of Lichfield wards of Bourne Vale, Fazeley, Little Aston, Mease and Tame, Shenstone, and Stonnall. I haven't checked but I'd imagine they would all be Tory but a relatively small part of the seat numerically.
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 360
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Post by mrtoad on Jul 2, 2022 8:58:41 GMT
Does anyone have the figures (for the council election results in May) for the wards that comprise the Tamworth constituency? ie vote share, gains/losses I have figures for Tamworth Borough Council, but assume that these may cover wards outside the constituency? Thank you en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tamworth_Borough_Council_electionLichfield DC didn't have local elections this May. I think - from memory - although Fazeley has been Labour in good years the rural wards and Shenstone are hard-core 80% Tory territory.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2022 8:59:50 GMT
And the Lichfield wards will not have voted this year (or indeed since 2019)
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2022 9:00:43 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think). I very much doubt it. It votes like a new town (and looks rather like one too) and I think when there are the sort of shifts we have seen, individual MP's hardly matter at all. This is where we disagree - our approach is becoming ever more presidential, and the myth of large personal votes is I think becoming ever more apparent.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2022 9:03:12 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think). I very much doubt it. It votes like a new town (and looks rather like one too) and I think when there are the sort of shifts we have seen, individual MP's hardly matter at all. This is where we disagree - our approach is becoming ever more presidential, and the myth of large personal votes is I think becoming ever more apparent. I know what you are saying, but the drop for Labour support here in 2010-15 was notable and above average even for the wider area.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2022 9:07:40 GMT
I very much doubt it. It votes like a new town (and looks rather like one too) and I think when there are the sort of shifts we have seen, individual MP's hardly matter at all. This is where we disagree - our approach is becoming ever more presidential, and the myth of large personal votes is I think becoming ever more apparent. I know what you are saying, but the drop for Labour support here in 2010-15 was notable and above average even for the wider area. But the really big drop was in 2010 when Jenkins was the candidate and lost the seat. If he had the sort of personal vote suggested, then the loss of Labour vote there would have been far less notable in 2010.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 2, 2022 9:14:14 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think). I very much doubt it. It votes like a new town (and looks rather like one too) and I think when there are the sort of shifts we have seen, individual MP's hardly matter at all. This is where we disagree - our approach is becoming ever more presidential, and the myth of large personal votes is I think becoming ever more apparent. I actually agree with you in part. Personal votes, in any positive sense, are rarely huge. But incumbency produces some inertia - less personal enthusiasm and more a rather conservative instinct against change (unless the MP has been pretty bad). Jenkins had been MP since 1996, must have been ok at casework and (being resident) public profile. That tends to weigh a bit against change. An opponent of any colour needs to be noticed. Pincher tried in 2005 so it was a long project.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 2, 2022 10:47:35 GMT
And the Lichfield wards will not have voted this year (or indeed since 2019) Those particular wards haven't voted since 2011 actually, as a new map came into effect in 2015 and there are two crossconstituency wards. 47-40 across Tamworth for the Tories at the locals, masked by losing only one seat, doesn't sound like a totally safe seat tbh. But the Lichfield component is over 20% of the seat (23% under the 2nd Zombie proposals and its numbers, which I totally didn't use merely because they were the first set I found but which are minimum-changey) and the notional 2022 Tory lead in the constituency would obviously quite a bit larger.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jul 2, 2022 10:52:07 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think). Another one who didn't trouble the front bench. Obviously the massive pool of 1997-2005 Labour MPs meant many just didn't become ministers, but was this because he didn't want to or was he on the wrong wing or what?
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2022 11:07:18 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think). Another one who didn't trouble the front bench. Obviously the massive pool of 1997-2005 Labour MPs meant many just didn't become ministers, but was this because he didn't want to or was he on the wrong wing or what? I think there are MP's who want to become ministers and climb the greasy pole, but also those who want to serve their local area and enjoy being a backbench 'good constituency MP'. I'd say he was in this category. There are also MP's who find their niche doing the scrutiny and committee work - Chris Bryant has been very effective at this (though he is needed on the Labour front bench) as was Tony Wright (Cannock) who was a well known political science academic and found his place doing the painstaking detail work of the committees. Its probably fair to say that current party strategy may lead to quite a number of the former being selected at by-elections.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 2, 2022 11:13:41 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,301
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 2, 2022 11:23:16 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think). He was known to be a personally popular incumbent: a telling thing is that when he ceased to be the candidate (2015) the Labour vote slumped significantly, which was not actually typical in that election. Though it's also worth noting that until 2019 the Conservative majorities were still not massively higher than what they'd taken in the predecessor constituency in the 1980s. But I think in general for Labour this is very much an area where what demographic change once giveth, now demographic change hath taken away.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2022 11:25:20 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think). He was known to be a personally popular incumbent: a telling thing is that when he ceased to be the candidate (2015) the Labour vote slumped significantly, which was not actually typical in that election. Though it's also worth noting that until 2019 the Conservative majorities were still not massively higher than what they'd taken in the predecessor constituency in the 1980s. But I think in general for Labour this is very much an area where what demographic change once giveth, now demographic change hath taken away. Isn't it more that the existing demographic has changed its voting patterns, rather than demographic change per se?
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Post by matureleft on Jul 2, 2022 11:25:32 GMT
Minimal and the subjects suggest some moral objections on particular topics plus some procedural votes.
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