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Post by finsobruce on Oct 26, 2021 10:00:51 GMT
We will see how this plays out. I would not be surprised that if this goes as far as a recall petition, then the petition would not break the 10% threshold (8356 signatures). He's a very good fit for the constituency and he has a lot of goodwill and sympathy on his side after the death of his wife. As one of his constituents, I only voted for him in 2010 but I won't be signing* any recall petition if it happens. Apart from anything, should he retain the Conservative whip and the recall petition is successful and he chooses to fight the subsequent byelection, he will still be returned with a thumping majority. *Actually, what are the rules concerning overseas voters and signing recall petitions? You can apply to vote by post or proxy.
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,032
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Post by ilerda on Oct 26, 2021 10:07:09 GMT
Can you apply to not vote by post or proxy?
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,621
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Post by European Lefty on Oct 26, 2021 10:12:48 GMT
We will see how this plays out. I would not be surprised that if this goes as far as a recall petition, then the petition would not break the 10% threshold (8356 signatures). He's a very good fit for the constituency and he has a lot of goodwill and sympathy on his side after the death of his wife. As one of his constituents, I only voted for him in 2010 but I won't be signing* any recall petition if it happens. Apart from anything, should he retain the Conservative whip and the recall petition is successful and he chooses to fight the subsequent byelection, he will still be returned with a thumping majority. *Actually, what are the rules concerning overseas voters and signing recall petitions? I suspect that opposition parties are also probably not organised enough to orchestrate a successful recall campaign, and given what you've said would probably decide it wasn't worth it anyway and might be actively harmful
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WJ
Non-Aligned
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Post by WJ on Oct 26, 2021 10:19:08 GMT
We will see how this plays out. I would not be surprised that if this goes as far as a recall petition, then the petition would not break the 10% threshold (8356 signatures). He's a very good fit for the constituency and he has a lot of goodwill and sympathy on his side after the death of his wife. As one of his constituents, I only voted for him in 2010 but I won't be signing* any recall petition if it happens. Apart from anything, should he retain the Conservative whip and the recall petition is successful and he chooses to fight the subsequent byelection, he will still be returned with a thumping majority. *Actually, what are the rules concerning overseas voters and signing recall petitions? I suspect that opposition parties are also probably not organised enough to orchestrate a successful recall campaign, and given what you've said would probably decide it wasn't worth it anyway and might be actively harmful My understanding is that Labour machinery is in very poor shape in the constituency, although they could send people in from Shrewsbury. The Lib Dems have a more efficient machine and had a pretty successful local campaign this year, unseating or coming very close to unseating Tories in a bunch of wards in the country (although, as we know, local voting patterns are often a poor marker for national voting patterns), but as you point out, whether either party would bother would be another matter. The Greens have got relatively good infrastructure in the county, especially in Oswestry, and while they would have absolutely no hope of making the Tories sweat in a byelection, I could see them being the sort to push a recall petition regardless.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,332
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Post by ricmk on Oct 26, 2021 10:25:18 GMT
Just skimmed the report as best I can. It's pretty brutal in places, and the summary describes it as an egregious case of paid advocacy. There is a large number of minor issues as well, but it's systematic paid lobbying on 14 occasions that's the root of it, and the Johnsonian defence of 'I was elected to use my judgement and I did' doesn't wash at all neither does the accusations of bias (and paragraph 206 certainly is interesting as highlighted above) Looks like a black and white breach to me - so will be difficult for MPs to vote against suspension.
As others have said the recall process may well not succeed, due to local sympathy, a lack of public interest in lobbying compared to easier to grasp conduct issues, and the rurality of the constituency which was a factor in the N Antrim petition failing. However Paterson has been an MP for 24 years - I wonder if he might pre-empt some of this by announcing his intention to retire at the next GE? Would take the sails right out of any recall process.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 26, 2021 10:59:36 GMT
The recall petition will need 8,200 valid signatures. It is going to be difficult to gather because the constituency is mostly rural, but there are several towns (Oswestry, Market Drayton and Wem) which could provide enough on their own.
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Oct 26, 2021 11:03:52 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Oct 26, 2021 11:05:34 GMT
21,069 voters in N.Shropshire voted for a candidate who is not Owen Peterson, which means that roughly 39% of them would need to sign the recall petition.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 26, 2021 11:11:19 GMT
Whilst I don’t disagree he’s popular and well liked and could benefit from some sympathy given his late wife’s death, the public by in large don’t like MPs having second jobs especially if those second jobs seem to take priority over being an MP.
Almost 12,500 people in this seat voted for Labour and Corbyn at the last election. How many of them will be sympathetic to him?
The North Antrim petition narrowly failed (7,099 people signed, 444 more were needed) because of only three signing places (verses six in B&R) and of course the far more partisan nature of NI politics, with the DUP virtually banning their followers from signing.
If this goes to a petition I’ll happily wager that it’ll be successful.
Edit: beaten to it!
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WJ
Non-Aligned
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Post by WJ on Oct 26, 2021 11:19:57 GMT
But Brecon and Radnor is a much more marginal seat, as was Peterborough for that matter. Therefore, there might have been more impetus for non-Tories to get out to sign a recall petition, knowing that there could be the chance to win the subsequent byelection.
If it happens, North Shropshire would be the first recall petition in a "boring" seat and we have no way of telling how voters who did not vote for the incumbent party will behave in situations where a byelection is unlikely to change the incumbent party.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2021 11:22:48 GMT
Isn't North Shropshire one of the longest held Tory seats anywhere in the country?
I think they lost Oswestry in a by-election in 1904 but other than that it's been blue since 1835, one year after the Conservative Party was founded. Close-ish in 1997 though.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,213
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Post by cogload on Oct 26, 2021 11:24:07 GMT
Mr Paterson wants to go to court to clear his name.
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 26, 2021 11:28:26 GMT
the rurality of the constituency which was a factor in the N Antrim petition failing. IIRC the three centres were in the three main towns in the constituency and nowhere was more than 20 minutes drive away. And there was postal signing on demand. The number of locations row had a whiff of opponents getting their excuses in early.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 26, 2021 11:32:22 GMT
Mr Paterson wants to go to court to clear his name. Mr Paterson, let me introduce you to Article 9 of the Bill of Rights. Article 9, this is Rt Hon Owen Paterson MP. I'm sure you'll both get on fine.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 26, 2021 11:34:31 GMT
the rurality of the constituency which was a factor in the N Antrim petition failing. IIRC the three centres were in the three main towns in the constituency and nowhere was more than 20 minutes drive away. And there was postal signing on demand. The number of locations row had a quiff of opponents getting their excuses in early. I think it’s a fair complaint if I’m honest. IIRC three is the bare minimum requirement? How many signing centres did Peterborough have any how far was the furthest distance from one?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 26, 2021 11:37:57 GMT
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Oct 26, 2021 11:41:39 GMT
There are five towns in North Shropshire, so presumably it'll be those plus maybe a couple of the larger villages? 7 or so seems more than enough to give everyone an equal chance of getting there within 6 weeks if they want to.
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 26, 2021 11:42:30 GMT
IIRC the three centres were in the three main towns in the constituency and nowhere was more than 20 minutes drive away. And there was postal signing on demand. The number of locations row had a quiff of opponents getting their excuses in early. I think it’s a far complaint if I’m honest. IIRC three is the bare minimum requirement? At the time the Chief Electoral Officer for NI said: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45055761
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WJ
Non-Aligned
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Post by WJ on Oct 26, 2021 11:44:57 GMT
If I were an opposition activist, I would push for Oswestry, Ellesmere, Wem, Whitchurch and Market Drayton for an absolute minimum. I'd also angle for places like Baschurch and Shawbury too, to cover the southern parts of the constituency, denizens of which, would be more likely to conduct their business in Shrewsbury rather than in the North Shropshire towns.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,681
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 26, 2021 12:00:24 GMT
I suspect that opposition parties are also probably not organised enough to orchestrate a successful recall campaign, and given what you've said would probably decide it wasn't worth it anyway and might be actively harmful My understanding is that Labour machinery is in very poor shape in the constituency Its surely not impossible they could see a recall process as a way of gaining greater visibility. As for the outcome of any byelection, yes a Tory hold (indeed by Paterson if he stands again) is very likely - but "thumping majority"? Possibly not.
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