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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 16, 2021 18:49:07 GMT
My prediction is that UKIP will stand and save their deposit if Reform don’t which I don’t think they will. Not so sure. They didn't stand in Batley & Spen - quite different party now, different leadership etc (I don't even know who is the leader now) but they'd have some affinity with David Amess so I could see them not contesting it and Reform maybe likewise for the same reason. Obviously various right wing parties won votes (albeit not many) in Batley & Spen because there was no mainstream candidate to the right of Labour. In this case, the gap in the market will be on the left (assuming the Lib Dems don't stand - if they did while Labour didn't it would amount to a de facto, even if unintentional, progressive alliance). If the Greens also decline to stand then it would provide a small opportunity for some kind of fringe left-wing outfit like the Breakthrough party (I don't think Galloway would touch this for various reasons) |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 16, 2021 19:54:25 GMT
My prediction is that UKIP will stand and save their deposit if Reform don’t which I don’t think they will. Not so sure. They didn't stand in Batley & Spen - quite different party now, different leadership etc (I don't even know who is the leader now) but they'd have some affinity with David Amess so I could see them not contesting it and Reform maybe likewise for the same reason. Obviously various right wing parties won votes (albeit not many) in Batley & Spen because there was no mainstream candidate to the right of Labour. In this case, the gap in the market will be on the left (assuming the Lib Dems don't stand - if they did while Labour didn't it would amount to a de facto, even if unintentional, progressive alliance). If the Greens also decline to stand then it would provide a small opportunity for some kind of fringe left-wing outfit like the Breakthrough party (I don't think Galloway would touch this for various reasons) Neil Hamilton I think. As he was once a colleague of Sir David, perhaps he won't want to🤷🏻♂️. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 16, 2021 20:06:45 GMT
I might be imagining it, but I seem to recall Labour had a rule that they had to stand in every seat. Has that now changed? This rule could be waived in exceptional circumstances. Labour did not contest the Haltemprice & Howden by-election of 2008, for example, seeing it as nothing more than a time-wasting publicity stunt. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 16, 2021 20:15:02 GMT
I have heard via Twitter that the Green Party will likely not contest this by-election either.
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Post by chorleyboy on Oct 16, 2021 20:17:45 GMT
We’ll never see an uncontested parliamentary election. There’ll always be someone to challenge. The last time a UK parliamentary by-election was uncontested was 1954, in Armagh, Northern Ireland (1946 in Hemsworth in mainland Britain). In effect four of the fifteen by-elections in Northen Ireland in 1986 were uncontested (Strangford, Londonderry East, North Antrim and South Antrim), as no other party decided to contest the seat and a paper candidate was put in place who did not campaign. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 16, 2021 20:29:09 GMT
I have heard via Twitter that the Green Party will likely not contest this by-election either. Seeing as they didn't stand in 2019, and in 2017 they got 1.8%, they're probably better off hanging on to their £500. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 16, 2021 20:31:57 GMT
I have heard via Twitter that the Green Party will likely not contest this by-election either. Seeing as they didn't stand in 2019, and in 2017 they got 1.8%, they're probably better off hanging on to their £500. With the absence of Lab and LibDems they would comfortably save their deposit even if they did no campaigning. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 16, 2021 20:32:37 GMT
The last time a UK parliamentary by-election was uncontested was 1954, in Armagh, Northern Ireland (1946 in Hemsworth in mainland Britain). In effect four of the fifteen by-elections in Northen Ireland in 1986 were uncontested (Strangford, Londonderry East, North Antrim and South Antrim), as no other party decided to contest the seat and a paper candidate was put in place who did not campaign. I was referring to a genuinely uncontested by-election (the 1954 Armagh by-election literally had only one candidate, C.W. Armstrong of the Ulster Unionists) rather than a practically uncontested by-election. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 16, 2021 20:33:13 GMT
I might be imagining it, but I seem to recall Labour had a rule that they had to stand in every seat. Has that now changed? This rule could be waived in exceptional circumstances. Labour did not contest the Haltemprice & Howden by-election of 2008, for example, seeing it as nothing more than a time-wasting publicity stunt. Didn’t stand in Tatton in 1997 either. Labour also don’t stand against the Speaker. The only party I know who have it in their rules to stand everywhere is the SNP (who obviously only stand in Scotland) |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 16, 2021 20:35:40 GMT
The last time a UK parliamentary by-election was uncontested was 1954, in Armagh, Northern Ireland (1946 in Hemsworth in mainland Britain). In effect four of the fifteen by-elections in Northen Ireland in 1986 were uncontested (Strangford, Londonderry East, North Antrim and South Antrim), as no other party decided to contest the seat and a paper candidate was put in place who did not campaign. Although "Peter Barry" did better than Brabin's motley opponents – he somehow saved three of his four deposits. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 16, 2021 20:43:17 GMT
This rule could be waived in exceptional circumstances. Labour did not contest the Haltemprice & Howden by-election of 2008, for example, seeing it as nothing more than a time-wasting publicity stunt. Didn’t stand in Tatton in 1997 either. Labour also don’t stand against the Speaker. The only party I know who have it in their rules to stand everywhere is the SNP (who obviously only stand in Scotland) They only don't stand against Speakers who either were Labour before or end up defecting to Labour afterwards. They stood against Speakers Weatherill, Lloyd, and Hylton-Foster. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 16, 2021 20:45:33 GMT
In effect four of the fifteen by-elections in Northen Ireland in 1986 were uncontested (Strangford, Londonderry East, North Antrim and South Antrim), as no other party decided to contest the seat and a paper candidate was put in place who did not campaign. I was referring to a genuinely uncontested by-election (the 1954 Armagh by-election literally had only one candidate, C.W. Armstrong of the Ulster Unionists) rather than a practically uncontested by-election. Of the same era, there was also the faintly ludicrous 1955 Mid Ulster by-election, where both candidates ended up being disqualified after the election. |
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Post by chorleyboy on Oct 16, 2021 20:55:53 GMT
In effect four of the fifteen by-elections in Northen Ireland in 1986 were uncontested (Strangford, Londonderry East, North Antrim and South Antrim), as no other party decided to contest the seat and a paper candidate was put in place who did not campaign. Although "Peter Barry" did better than Brabin's motley opponents – he somehow saved three of his four deposits. There being only two candidates in all four of the constituencies he contested as opposed to the ten in Batley and Spen would obviously have helped his chances. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 17, 2021 9:27:49 GMT
Seeing as they didn't stand in 2019, and in 2017 they got 1.8%, they're probably better off hanging on to their £500. With the absence of Lab and LibDems they would comfortably save their deposit even if they did no campaigning. They might, but personally I doubt it. Green voters are not headbangers like English Democrats, and the Greens would look pretty bad standing under the circumstances, with the others withdrawing. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 17, 2021 9:31:13 GMT
Didn’t stand in Tatton in 1997 either. Labour also don’t stand against the Speaker. The only party I know who have it in their rules to stand everywhere is the SNP (who obviously only stand in Scotland) They only don't stand against Speakers who either were Labour before or end up defecting to Labour afterwards. They stood against Speakers Weatherill, Lloyd, and Hylton-Foster. Because that was obvious back in 2010, of course  In any case, now that the precedent has been set with Bercow there must be a good chance it will be followed in future. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 17, 2021 10:03:03 GMT
I have heard via Twitter that the Green Party will likely not contest this by-election either. Seeing as they didn't stand in 2019, and in 2017 they got 1.8%, they're probably better off hanging on to their £500. The Greens got 8% at the last local elections in Southend - a very respectable showing, and would certainly save their deposit comfortably if either Labour or Liberal Democrats didn't stand, and might do so anyway at a by-election. Regardless of the circumstances there are lots of people who won't vote Conservative, and would choose to exercise their right to vote against them, rather than simply abstain. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 17, 2021 10:31:23 GMT
I would hope and expect that the upcoming by-election will not be contested by opposition parties. I know it wasn’t in Jo Cox’s case but a couple of by-elections where Tory MPs got killed by the IRA were fully contested. I don’t know the context then of course or how controversial it was or not. I can certainly recall arguments that Enfield Southgate in 1984 shouldn't have been contested by the other "main" parties. And this gained currency after the LibDems actually won Eastbourne in 1990, though the clumsy Tory attempts to make it an issue were undoubtedly a factor there. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 17, 2021 11:01:33 GMT
Seeing as they didn't stand in 2019, and in 2017 they got 1.8%, they're probably better off hanging on to their £500. The Greens got 8% at the last local elections in Southend - a very respectable showing, and would certainly save their deposit comfortably if either Labour or Liberal Democrats didn't stand, and might do so anyway at a by-election. Regardless of the circumstances there are lots of people who won't vote Conservative, and would choose to exercise their right to vote against them, rather than simply abstain. If you look at Batley and Spen, the frustrated anti-Labour voters went mainly for the English Democrats and other far right Parties, not for more neutral Independents. My conclusion from that woukd be that more sensible voters decided to stay home or vote Labour rather than vote anti-Labour. Of course we can't know how any mainstream Party (other than Labour) would have done in Batley and Spen and almost certainly will not get to find out in Southend. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 17, 2021 11:10:01 GMT
I know it wasn’t in Jo Cox’s case but a couple of by-elections where Tory MPs got killed by the IRA were fully contested. I don’t know the context then of course or how controversial it was or not. I can certainly recall arguments that Enfield Southgate in 1984 shouldn't have been contested by the other "main" parties. And this gained currency after the LibDems actually won Eastbourne in 1990, though the clumsy Tory attempts to make it an issue were undoubtedly a factor there. The context was a bit different in that the IRA murders were seen as an organised attack on our democracy, whereas no organisation claimed responsibility for the murder of Jo Cox. How much that would work now as an argument is less clear. The precedent for uncontested by-elections in the case of murder has been set. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Oct 17, 2021 11:21:02 GMT
It is an attack on democracy by the establishment that this will be largely uncontested. I am disappointed with both Labour and the Greens.
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