The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 5, 2021 12:34:40 GMT
I also think that a reason for negative swings is running the council. By far the best Tory result last night was in the ward in the Labour run council That may have been a factor in said result, but the locally based reasons already cited are more likely to have been decisive. Basically, it was a gamble by Labour - and such gambles sometimes pay off, but on this occasion it didn't. |
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 5, 2021 13:11:30 GMT
It used to be claimed for Parliamentary by elections, based mainly on Labour's experience in the 70s I think that it was easier to hold a seat when the incumbent had died rather than when they had resigned especially if it was to go off and do something else. Not entirely sure the stats bear that out mind you Isn't the classic example of that the night Labour held Grimsby (following a death) but lost Ashfield(?) where the MP had resigned to take a post at the EU? Which also gave us the No.1 Roy Jenkins joke. |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,817
Member is Online
|
Post by iang on Nov 5, 2021 13:15:41 GMT
It used to be claimed for Parliamentary by elections, based mainly on Labour's experience in the 70s I think that it was easier to hold a seat when the incumbent had died rather than when they had resigned especially if it was to go off and do something else. Not entirely sure the stats bear that out mind you Isn't the classic example of that the night Labour held Grimsby (following a death) but lost Ashfield(?) where the MP had resigned to take a post at the EU? Which also gave us the No.1 Roy Jenkins joke. Yes that was what I was thinking of, but I'm not sure how typical it was - from memory, Grimsby was on paper more vulnerable, but it was held and Ashfield wasn't |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Nov 5, 2021 13:18:50 GMT
It used to be claimed for Parliamentary by elections, based mainly on Labour's experience in the 70s I think that it was easier to hold a seat when the incumbent had died rather than when they had resigned especially if it was to go off and do something else. Not entirely sure the stats bear that out mind you Isn't the classic example of that the night Labour held Grimsby (following a death) but lost Ashfield(?) where the MP had resigned to take a post at the EU? Which also gave us the No.1 Roy Jenkins joke. I thought you were taking Marquand with you. |
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 5, 2021 13:42:50 GMT
Isn't the classic example of that the night Labour held Grimsby (following a death) but lost Ashfield(?) where the MP had resigned to take a post at the EU? Which also gave us the No.1 Roy Jenkins joke. I thought you were taking Marquand with you. That's the one!  |
|
|
|
Post by listener on Nov 5, 2021 15:55:02 GMT
Much healthier turnouts generally this week, but Salford was barely 10%.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 5, 2021 18:25:57 GMT
Much healthier turnouts generally this week, but Salford was barely 10%. It does depend a lot on the electorate getting more through the door than just a polling card.. (I bet Salford was about 80% PV) |
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Nov 5, 2021 18:45:11 GMT
Much healthier turnouts generally this week, but Salford was barely 10%. It does depend a lot on the electorate getting more through the door than just a polling card.. (I bet Salford was about 80% PV) PV turnout: 43% (369 votes). In-person turnout: 6% (419 votes). Apparently it was two leaflets each from Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. Incredibly hard ward to work, most of it is apartments blocks with no easy access. Also the kind of housing that sees a very high turnover of residents. |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 5, 2021 18:54:48 GMT
Apartment blocks are a bugger, but there's often a Trade buzzer that lets you in before about midday. Can't always be relied upon to work, of course.
|
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Nov 5, 2021 18:57:17 GMT
Apartment blocks are a bugger, but there's often a Trade buzzer that lets you in before about midday. Can't always be relied upon to work, of course. City-centre ones tend to be locked down more, to prevent rough sleeping in stairwells etc. |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 5, 2021 19:00:56 GMT
Apartment blocks are a bugger, but there's often a Trade buzzer that lets you in before about midday. Can't always be relied upon to work, of course. City-centre ones tend to be locked down more, to prevent rough sleeping in stairwells etc. I can believe that. Need to have a friend with the entry code, not easy to obtain. |
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Nov 5, 2021 19:04:14 GMT
City-centre ones tend to be locked down more, to prevent rough sleeping in stairwells etc. I can believe that. Need to have a friend with the entry code, not easy to obtain. And even then, we had that for one large block for a while, then it was disabled due to drug dealing operating out of one apartment. And that was in Altrincham, not inner-city Salford. |
|
|
|
Post by froome on Nov 5, 2021 19:43:28 GMT
I can believe that. Need to have a friend with the entry code, not easy to obtain. And even then, we had that for one large block for a while, then it was disabled due to drug dealing operating out of one apartment. And that was in Altrincham, not inner-city Salford. And even if you manage to gain entry, some blocks can feel pretty off putting, if not frightening, to wander around. I found myself on the top floor of one block in Bristol a few years back where most of the tenants may well have been involved in drug dealing and were definitely not happy to have anyone knocking on their doors, or delivering leaflets to them! |
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Nov 5, 2021 19:56:46 GMT
And even then, we had that for one large block for a while, then it was disabled due to drug dealing operating out of one apartment. And that was in Altrincham, not inner-city Salford. And even if you manage to gain entry, some blocks can feel pretty off putting, if not frightening, to wander around. I found myself on the top floor of one block in Bristol a few years back where most of the tenants may well have been involved in drug dealing and were definitely not happy to have anyone knocking on their doors, or delivering leaflets to them! 1970s: "Look at our wonderful new Hulme Crescents" 1980s: "Oh. They're already leaking, falling apart, and full of cockroaches. Now they're a haven for drug dealing and general criminal behaviour." 1990s: "We've demolished the Crescents!" 2000s: "Look at our new luxurious modern city-lifestyle apartments" 2010s: "Look at our bargain wardrobe-size one-bed buy-to-let-owned apartments" 2020s: "Oh. They're covered in highly flammable materials and the leaseholders are being bankrupted. Now they're becoming hot-spots for drug dealing and general criminal behaviour." 2030s: .... |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
|
Post by Sibboleth on Nov 5, 2021 20:14:12 GMT
Still, isn't it heartwarming to learn that the private sector can so thoroughly emulate the public sector at times?
|
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Nov 5, 2021 20:20:10 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Nov 5, 2021 21:08:49 GMT
City-centre ones tend to be locked down more, to prevent rough sleeping in stairwells etc. I can believe that. Need to have a friend with the entry code, not easy to obtain. Often you need a fob. Or to communicate over the intercom with some clueless person based a couple of hundred miles away (unstaffed on Saturdays). Maybe the next Bill for making leafletting easier should make external letterboxes mandatory? |
|
|
|
Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Nov 5, 2021 21:19:48 GMT
So overall I would say a pretty bad week for the Tories (1 hold, 2 losses, and 2 they could have gained but didn't), very good for the Lib Dems (1 hold 2 gains) and moderatly good for Labour (1 hold 1 gain, but missing out on West Lancs which they should have managed). An interesting week. Of course a bonus for Labour is getting the foot in the door in Rutland. Looking at the census data and deprivation report, this looks like an area that's reasonably deprived by local standards but not necessarily by national standards which is exactly the sort of place where Labour really need to be winning local elections (if not necessarily general elections) I was sent an e-mail by Momentum on Wednesday asking for help in getting Leah elected. They were highlighting the fact her Tory opponent is Sir Peter Bottomley's son. Interesting to have a socialist elected in Rutland. |
|
|
|
Post by ideal4radio on Nov 5, 2021 22:04:06 GMT
I'd hardly call her a parachute candidate - she's been a councillor in West Lancashire in the past (albeit in Skem), and her candidacy for parliament was in Southport. If she'd come from Manchester, or heaven forbid London, then I think it'd be fair to say it was because she was a parachute. But she's pretty local - unless the definition of local round there is literally restricted to a handful of villages. I certainly know of areas where coming from a nearby major town is a worse sin than coming from London or the major provincial city Burnley and Blackburn would be one, I suspect ! |
|
|
|
Post by ideal4radio on Nov 5, 2021 22:33:27 GMT
Isn't the classic example of that the night Labour held Grimsby (following a death) but lost Ashfield(?) where the MP had resigned to take a post at the EU? Which also gave us the No.1 Roy Jenkins joke. I thought you were taking Marquand with you. On 28th April 1977, by-elections took place in Great Grimsby, following the death of Tony Crosland, then the Foreign Secretary aged 58, following a massive stroke he had whilst working on his papers on Sunday 13th February, and in Ashfield, where David Marquand resigned to take up a role advising Roy Jenkins, who'd been appointed as a European Commissioner. Ashfield had a Labour majority of 22,915 but was lost, with the Conservative, Tim Smith, getting a majority of 264, on a swing of 20.8%. Great Grimsby, with Crosland's majority of 6,982, was retained by Austin Mitchell, with a majority of 520. The swing against Labour was much lower, at 7.03%. I suspect that the relative causes of the by-elections had much to do with these results, Crosland died in Office, working on Government business, whilst Marquand ( in the view of many ) was deserting dull, dreary old England for a cushy post in Brussels. For younger readers, the No.1 Roy Jenkins joke needs explaining. Jenkins, who had difficulties pronouncing his " r's ", made a speech declaring that, " I leave British Politics without any rancour ", to which a wag was said to have shouted, " I thought you were taking Marquand with you ! " ..... apocryphal I suspect ! |
|
