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Post by olympian95 on Nov 5, 2021 0:35:56 GMT
LD gain Bourne in West Sussex
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 5, 2021 0:37:41 GMT
LD gain Bourne in West Sussex That looks like a pretty good day for us! |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Nov 5, 2021 0:39:42 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 5, 2021 0:42:11 GMT
I'd hardly call her a parachute candidate - she's been a councillor in West Lancashire in the past (albeit in Skem), and her candidacy for parliament was in Southport. If she'd come from Manchester, or heaven forbid London, then I think it'd be fair to say it was because she was a parachute. But she's pretty local - unless the definition of local round there is literally restricted to a handful of villages. SOPN said she is from Tarleton, which is literaly in the next ward over. In my experience voters are not all that keen on council candidates moving around from one ward to another, and if there is a sniff that you care more about a neighbouring parliamentary constituency than local government, they don't like that either. If you work a ward hard, get respect, and then stand for Parliament it is different |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2021 0:45:44 GMT
I'd hardly call her a parachute candidate - she's been a councillor in West Lancashire in the past (albeit in Skem), and her candidacy for parliament was in Southport. If she'd come from Manchester, or heaven forbid London, then I think it'd be fair to say it was because she was a parachute. But she's pretty local - unless the definition of local round there is literally restricted to a handful of villages. SOPN said she is from Tarleton, which is literaly in the next ward over. But if someone decided to make an issue of it that won't have cut through as well as "former Skem Cllr who ran for parliament in Southport" |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307 
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 5, 2021 0:49:56 GMT
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Nov 5, 2021 0:51:02 GMT
So overall I would say a pretty bad week for the Tories (1 hold, 2 losses, and 2 they could have gained but didn't), very good for the Lib Dems (1 hold 2 gains) and moderatly good for Labour (1 hold 1 gain, but missing out on West Lancs which they should have managed). An interesting week. Of course a bonus for Labour is getting the foot in the door in Rutland.
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 5, 2021 0:51:39 GMT
I make that 3 strong results for the yellow team, coupled with a big loss for Cons in Rutland, where they should have won.
Tory sleaze chickens coming home to roost, this early?
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 5, 2021 0:55:36 GMT
Gloucester: Longlevens - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2016 B | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,520 | 60.3% | +15.1% | +14.8% | +23.4% | +47.1% | +46.8% | | Conservative | 781 | 31.0% | -17.8% | -16.4% | -15.2% | -11.5% | -10.1% | | Labour | 135 | 5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -4.3% | -12.5% | -12.9% | | Green | 86 | 3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | -9.2% | -9.5% | | Libertarian |
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| -6.0% | -7.1% |
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| | UKIP |
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| -7.2% | -13.9% | -14.2% | | Total votes | 2,522 |
| 75% | 88% | 109% | 65% | 66% |
Swing: Conservatives to Liberal Democrat 16½ / 15½% since May, 19¼% since 2016 by-election and 29¼ / 28½% since 2016 Council now: 25 Conservative, 11 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour Huntingdonshire: Huntingdon East - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 813 | 55.3% | +8.3% | +8.8% | | Conservative | 656 | 44.7% | +5.6% | +5.9% | | Labour |
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| -13.9% | -14.7% | | Total votes | 1,469 |
| 77% | 83% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 1¼% / 1½% since 2018 Council now: 30 Conservative, 10 Huntingdonshire Independent Group, 7 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 2 Independent Rutland: Oakham North West - Labour gain from Independent| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | 2019 result | | Labour | 293 | 62.6% |
| | Conservative | 175 | 37.4% | unopposed | | Independent |
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| unopposed | | Total votes | 468 |
| n / a |
Swing: not applicable Council now: 14 Conservative, 5 Independent, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 non-aligned, 1 Labour, 1 Green Salford: Blackfriars & Trinity - Labour hold | Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | | Labour | 408 | 51.8% | -2.3% | -7.1% | | Green | 160 | 20.3% | -6.4% | -1.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 152 | 19.3% | +13.0% | +14.1% | | Conservative | 68 | 8.6% | +0.8% | +0.4% | | Independent |
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| -5.2% | -6.2% | | Total votes | 788 |
| 35% | 41% |
Swing: Green to Labour 2% since May on "top" vote, Labour to Green 3% on "average" vote Council now: 52 Labour + elected Mayor, 7 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat West Lancashire: North Meols - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Conservative | 634 | 64.9% | +15.6% | +20.3% | +14.4% | +24.2% | | Labour | 343 | 35.1% | -3.0% | -20.3% | +6.3% | +9.5% | | UKIP |
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| -12.6% |
| -20.7% | -33.7% | | Total votes | 977 |
| 81% | 87% | 48% | 112% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 9¼% since 2019, 20¼% since 2018, 4% since 2015 and, if particularly meaningful 7¼% since 2014 Council now: 26 Labour, 20 Conservative, 7 Our West Lancashire, 1 Independent West Sussex: Bourne - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 | since 2019 B | since 2017 | | Liberal Democrat | 1,180 | 51.8% | +22.8% | +15.8% | +32.3% | | Conservative | 893 | 39.2% | -11.7% | -9.6% | -0.9% | | Green | 178 | 7.8% | -3.1% | -1.1% | +0.9% | | Labour | 25 | 1.1% | -8.1% | -4.7% | -6.7% | | Patria |
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| -25.6% | | Total votes | 2,276 |
| 62% | 82% | Row 8 column 6 |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 17¼% since May, 12¾% since 2019 by-election and 16½% since 2017
Council now: 47 Conservative, 11 Liberal Democrat, 9 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Independent, 1 Local Alliance
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2021 0:57:55 GMT
So overall I would say a pretty bad week for the Tories (1 hold, 2 losses, and 2 they could have gained but didn't), very good for the Lib Dems (1 hold 2 gains) and moderatly good for Labour (1 hold 1 gain, but missing out on West Lancs which they should have managed). An interesting week. Of course a bonus for Labour is getting the foot in the door in Rutland. Looking at the census data and deprivation report, this looks like an area that's reasonably deprived by local standards but not necessarily by national standards which is exactly the sort of place where Labour really need to be winning local elections (if not necessarily general elections) |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 5, 2021 0:59:56 GMT
I make that 3 strong results for the yellow team, coupled with a big loss for Cons in Rutland, where they should have won. Tory sleaze chickens coming home to roost, this early? I can only comment on the Longlevens result, and in that case a result on this scale was apparent from canvassing a week ago i.e. before the Paterson affair blew up. However, what was noticeable was the disenchantment with the government among previous Tory voters before Paterson. Whatever the polls say, I do not think this is a popular or respected government (at least not in southern England, I can't speak for the rest of the UK) and any poll lead is (I think) more down to Starmer and Labour generally failing to inspire, while we and the Greens are marginalised, than actual support for Johnson. When there is a clear alternative, it is possible to capitalise. We might speculate that a drip-drip of cock-ups and poor standards may increase that tendency. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 5, 2021 1:02:38 GMT
I make that 3 strong results for the yellow team, coupled with a big loss for Cons in Rutland, where they should have won. Tory sleaze chickens coming home to roost, this early? The biggest factor causing large negative swings in recent months in my opinion have been unnecessary resignations. In particular if you resign within 3 or 4 months of being elected (as in the case of Gloucester and West Sussex) your party will have an uphill struggle unless there is a very good reason for your resignation. |
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 5, 2021 1:07:31 GMT
I make that 3 strong results for the yellow team, coupled with a big loss for Cons in Rutland, where they should have won. Tory sleaze chickens coming home to roost, this early? The biggest factor causing large negative swings in recent months in my opinion have been unnecessary resignations. In particular if you resign within 3 or 4 months of being elected (as in the case of Gloucester and West Sussex) your party will have an uphill struggle unless there is a very good reason for your resignation. And rightly so...wasting peoples time sorry to local politics is boring! Getting elected is probably the exciting part |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 5, 2021 1:09:54 GMT
I make that 3 strong results for the yellow team, coupled with a big loss for Cons in Rutland, where they should have won. Tory sleaze chickens coming home to roost, this early? The biggest factor causing large negative swings in recent months in my opinion have been unnecessary resignations. In particular if you resign within 3 or 4 months of being elected (as in the case of Gloucester and West Sussex) your party will have an uphill struggle unless there is a very good reason for your resignation. That's sound too. It also means the local party have to rush around to find a new candidate at short notice whereas the opposition can re-run their losing candidate from May if they had a good one, as we were able to do in Gloucester. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Nov 5, 2021 6:43:52 GMT
It used to be claimed for Parliamentary by elections, based mainly on Labour's experience in the 70s I think that it was easier to hold a seat when the incumbent had died rather than when they had resigned especially if it was to go off and do something else. Not entirely sure the stats bear that out mind you
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 5, 2021 7:05:49 GMT
The biggest factor causing large negative swings in recent months in my opinion have been unnecessary resignations. In particular if you resign within 3 or 4 months of being elected (as in the case of Gloucester and West Sussex) your party will have an uphill struggle unless there is a very good reason for your resignation. That's sound too. It also means the local party have to rush around to find a new candidate at short notice whereas the opposition can re-run their losing candidate from May if they had a good one, as we were able to do in Gloucester. Although in Gloucester the Tories also re-ran their unsuccessful candidate from May. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 5, 2021 7:14:58 GMT
I also think that a reason for negative swings is running the council. By far the best Tory result last night was in the ward in the Labour run council. The Lib Dem’s have done better in recent weeks/ months in councils which the Conservatives run than in wards in councils where they have overall control themselves. It’s pretty unusual for the party in control of the council to be seen as popular.
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Post by Rutlander on Nov 5, 2021 7:52:21 GMT
And, on the night that Rutland has its first Labour councillor since 2003, a Conservative councillor (and cabinet member) in Rutland, Alan Walters (Oakham NE), announces he is becoming an Independent. (He was originally elected as an Ind)
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Post by galloglass on Nov 5, 2021 9:36:12 GMT
Is this a case of being punished for parachuting a candidate from elsewhere? Very much so. When I was looking for candidates to be competitive in Banks you needed someone who was born there and then lived there for the next 40 years. Nothing appears to have changed in the intervening 30 odd years. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 5, 2021 9:54:35 GMT
Comparing actual vote shares last night to the average forecast shares of the competitors in our prediction competition.
Conservative
Gloucester -7.8%
Huntingdon + 0.6%
Rutland -25.9%
Salford -1.8%
West Lancs +15.3%
West Sussex -5.5%
Average -4.2% compared to prediction
Labour
Gloucester -3.1%
Rutland +25.9%
Salford -2.1%
West Lancs -15.3%
West Sussex -2.5%
Average +0.6% compared to prediction
Lib Dem
Gloucester +17%
Huntingdonshire -0.6%
Salford +9.2%
West Sussex +14.1%
Average +9.9% compared to prediction
Green
Gloucester -6%
Salford -5.4%
West Sussex -6.1%
Average -5.8% compared to prediction
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