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Post by batman on Dec 3, 2021 15:47:49 GMT
A 10.25% swing to Labour from the Tories is a pretty good result when compared to some earlier Parliaments. In the 1959 - 1964 period Labour only bettered that performance in a single seat - Stratford on Avon caused by the resignation of John Profumo in Summer of 1963.It is also much better than achieved by the party in Tory-held seats during the Heath Government - 1970 - 1974 - with the exception of Bromsgrove in May 1971 which pretty well matched it. indeed, Labour failed to gain Uxbridge in a 1972 by-election as apparently the Conservatives squeezed the vote of the Liberals (who lost their deposit). Only a modest swing was required to gain the seat, which had voted Labour in the 1966 general election. |
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Post by batman on Dec 3, 2021 15:50:26 GMT
Applied nationally the result would see Labour exceed 300 seats in a GE - with theTories on circa 250.
So next general election the turn out will be less than 40%?
obviously not, and obviously a by-election should never be extrapolated into a general election result. But it wasn't only the Tories who didn't get their vote out; Labour too will attract extra votes in the general election when it comes. The council by-election I worked in yesterday saw a higher turnout than this parliamentary contest. |
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Post by batman on Dec 3, 2021 15:52:59 GMT
It is how 'swing' has always been calculated! The intervention of other candidates will inevitably have an effect on both main parties. Thus if as result of new party standing which polls - say - 12%, the Tory vote falls by 10% and the Labour vote by 2% , the result would still represent a swing from Tory to Labour of 4% - because the Tory majority has fallen by 8% - or the Labour majority has increased by 8%. In this case,however, Labour's vote has actually increased by over 7%.
I appreciate what you mean by swing !! but it does imply a 2 party transaction (for want of a better word) when clearly this isn't the case. no, it really doesn't. Swing is a net figure. It does not mean & never has meant the percentage of voters directly transferring their votes from one party to the beneficiary-of-the-swing party. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 3, 2021 15:53:53 GMT
Tories - a hold, and over 50%. They can be satisfied although might be a little worried about their abstention rate being so much higher than the others Labour - can be pleased with that swing but would probably have liked to narrow ot further if they're on the way to government Reform - disaster really. Should at least have hit 10% in this constituency under these circumstances Everyone else - also rans of no consequence Reform's best result under the name so far is not a disaster. 6% from the Tories could lose a lot of seats. Correct! UKIP, Reform and Reclaim are tactical attacks to cause damage to the Conservatives and get them to stop being :- Overtly Wet Fiscally Imprudent Useless in Immigration Tacitly Socialist Worse than Useless on Asylum Seekers Far Too Green Useless on Fuel and Energy Weak in Tax And just so generally gormless and twerpish on everything. The irritation is there and it is festering. So far it is just chuntering, staying at home and not renewing subs. Next stage is voting for Reclaim, Reform UKIP whoever leads them and whatever they say to make a heavy-handed point Final stage is active support with cash and work in attempt to do as much damage as possible to the rejected Conservatives. The Conservatives must beware this happening before their very eyes without it being noticed until the revulsion is in full swing. I am still an irritated tacit supporter but a few months and some more utter daftness and I shall be happy to cause the party as much distress as I can. If I make that move at least 1Mn more will be with me. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 16:00:40 GMT
I appreciate what you mean by swing !! but it does imply a 2 party transaction (for want of a better word) when clearly this isn't the case. no, it really doesn't. Swing is a net figure. It does not mean & never has meant the percentage of voters directly transferring their votes from one party to the beneficiary-of-the-swing party. "In the UK, a two-party swing (averaged model) is generally used, which adds one party's increase in share of the vote (expressed as a percentage point) to the percentage-point fall of another party, and divides the total by two" & many other similar definitions on google |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 3, 2021 16:28:52 GMT
Reform's best result under the name so far is not a disaster. 6% from the Tories could lose a lot of seats. Correct! UKIP, Reform and Reclaim are tactical attacks to cause damage to the Conservatives and get them to stop being :- Overtly Wet Fiscally Imprudent Useless in Immigration Tacitly Socialist Worse than Useless on Asylum Seekers Far Too Green Useless on Fuel and Energy Weak in Tax And just so generally gormless and twerpish on everything. The irritation is there and it is festering. So far it is just chuntering, staying at home and not renewing subs. Next stage is voting for Reclaim, Reform UKIP whoever leads them and whatever they say to make a heavy-handed point Final stage is active support with cash and work in attempt to do as much damage as possible to the rejected Conservatives. The Conservatives must beware this happening before their very eyes without it being noticed until the revulsion is in full swing. I am still an irritated tacit supporter but a few months and some more utter daftness and I shall be happy to cause the party as much distress as I can. If I make that move at least 1Mn more will be with me. Great description, damn this political homelessness! |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 3, 2021 17:15:49 GMT
FWIW, if the swing was repeated nationally  Can you do one based on the swing from the local by-election in North Norfolk? That would be much more fun. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 17:22:51 GMT
FWIW, if the swing was repeated nationally Still a couple of seats in Wales. Silver linings. |
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Post by phil156 on Dec 3, 2021 17:34:29 GMT
So North Shropshire goes blue in the next GE
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 3, 2021 17:49:30 GMT
I appreciate what you mean by swing !! but it does imply a 2 party transaction (for want of a better word) when clearly this isn't the case. no, it really doesn't. Swing is a net figure. It does not mean & never has meant the percentage of voters directly transferring their votes from one party to the beneficiary-of-the-swing party. nyes, given that this side discussion started with a comparison with the Macmillan government (why though!?) when most of GB had a two party system and swing did generally speaking actually mean that in practice. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2021 18:29:23 GMT
no, it really doesn't. Swing is a net figure. It does not mean & never has meant the percentage of voters directly transferring their votes from one party to the beneficiary-of-the-swing party. nyes, given that this side discussion started with a comparison with the Macmillan government (why though!?) when most of GB had a two party system and swing did generally speaking actually mean that in practice. Since 2015 England - though not Scotland and Wales - has pretty well returned to a two party system to a far greater extent than had prevailed since the February 1974 election. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 4, 2021 11:14:25 GMT
This post gets my nomination for "most Lib Dem post of 2021". 5th place and a lost deposit: now that is intense. A week is a long time in politics.  That Reform weren't challenging for 2nd place rather underlines their lack of traction. (I have trenchant views on the Lib Dem performance, but that is for another place.) The yellow room is waiting with bated breath! |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 4, 2021 17:12:53 GMT
A week is a long time in politics. That Reform weren't challenging for 2nd place rather underlines their lack of traction. (I have trenchant views on the Lib Dem performance, but that is for another place.) The yellow room is waiting with bated breath! We committed members of The Breath Abatement Society are appalled at your levity! |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 4, 2021 20:58:15 GMT
The yellow room is waiting with bated breath! We committed members of The Breath Abatement Society are appalled at your levity! Sounds like a suicide squad. Anyway, get your damned Abatement Society off our Lawn! |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 4, 2021 21:30:19 GMT
We committed members of The Breath Abatement Society are appalled at your levity! Sounds like a suicide squad. Anyway, get your damned Abatement Society off our Lawn! Bill Bryson pointed out in one of his books that some mad Victorian founded the "Society for the Suppression of Eating". |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Dec 5, 2021 15:34:34 GMT
Sounds like a suicide squad. Anyway, get your damned Abatement Society off our Lawn! Bill Bryson pointed out in one of his books that some mad Victorian founded the "Society for the Suppression of Eating". Someone has to speak up for hunger strikers I suppose... |
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Post by batman on Dec 5, 2021 17:24:43 GMT
Well I strongly supported Richard Radcliffe's hunger strike in the cause of freeing his wife from prison & I'm sure many here would have done the same.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Dec 5, 2021 20:53:17 GMT
Well I strongly supported Richard Radcliffe's hunger strike in the cause of freeing his wife from prison & I'm sure many here would have done the same. I didn't, because I knew he wouldn't go through with it. Unless you're doing the full Bobby Sands it's a waste of time. Radcliffe is absolutely in the right but he was never going to go the whole way and any publicity value has now vanished. If that was my partner, I'd be hammering the line that the UK owes Iran £400 million and that HMG values a human life less than what is a fraction of our military spending. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 5, 2021 21:25:47 GMT
Well I strongly supported Richard Radcliffe's hunger strike in the cause of freeing his wife from prison & I'm sure many here would have done the same. I didn't, because I knew he wouldn't go through with it. Unless you're doing the full Bobby Sands it's a waste of time. Radcliffe is absolutely in the right but he was never going to go the whole way and any publicity value has now vanished. If that was my partner, I'd be hammering the line that the UK owes Iran £400 million and that HMG values a human life less than what is a fraction of our military spending. I don't know why we're so keen not to re-pay the £400m. There's no legal argument that we don't owe it AFAICT and we are supposed to favour the rule of law and to want Iran to enter into some sort of binding agreement over nukes. I don't see why we aren't at least willing to throw settlement of the debt into the pot of any deal over nuclear weapons, and to publicly say so. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 5, 2021 21:37:54 GMT
I didn't, because I knew he wouldn't go through with it. Unless you're doing the full Bobby Sands it's a waste of time. Radcliffe is absolutely in the right but he was never going to go the whole way and any publicity value has now vanished. If that was my partner, I'd be hammering the line that the UK owes Iran £400 million and that HMG values a human life less than what is a fraction of our military spending. I don't know why we're so keen not to re-pay the £400m. There's no legal argument that we don't owe it AFAICT and we are supposed to favour the rule of law and to want Iran to enter into some sort of binding agreement over nukes. I don't see why we aren't at least willing to throw settlement of the debt into the pot of any deal over nuclear weapons, and to publicly say so. I think we are willing to repay it in principle, but the government’s claim is that their legal advice is that to do so would breach UN (and, probably more importantly US) sanctions thereby bringing further penalties on our trading relationship with Washington. It had been hoped that Biden would be more amenable to turning a blind eye, but that doesn’t appear to have come to fruition. |
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