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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 12:51:00 GMT
But it’s not really a 10% swing (sadly) the gap between Labour & the Tories was artificially inflated by the Tories voting FUKUP REFUK It is how 'swing' has always been calculated! The intervention of other candidates will inevitably have an effect on both main parties. Thus if as result of new party standing which polls - say - 12%, the Tory vote falls by 10% and the Labour vote by 2% , the result would still represent a swing from Tory to Labour of 4% - because the Tory majority has fallen by 8% - or the Labour majority has increased by 8%. In this case,however, Labour's vote has actually increased by over 7%.
Yes it is swing. Can be applied in any meaningful way to a General election? No. (no more than Chesham and Amersham can) |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 3, 2021 12:55:43 GMT
I think the 2nd/3rd battle will be more intense than that for 1st/2nd. I've forgotten already whose project Reform is so I suspect any traction may be limited. This post gets my nomination for "most Lib Dem post of 2021". 5th place and a lost deposit: now that is intense. A week is a long time in politics.  That Reform weren't challenging for 2nd place rather underlines their lack of traction. (I have trenchant views on the Lib Dem performance, but that is for another place.) |
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2021 12:57:54 GMT
It is how 'swing' has always been calculated! The intervention of other candidates will inevitably have an effect on both main parties. Thus if as result of new party standing which polls - say - 12%, the Tory vote falls by 10% and the Labour vote by 2% , the result would still represent a swing from Tory to Labour of 4% - because the Tory majority has fallen by 8% - or the Labour majority has increased by 8%. In this case,however, Labour's vote has actually increased by over 7%.
Yes it is swing. Can be applied in any meaningful way to a General election? No. (no more than Chesham and Amersham can) But that has always been true of by elections. The March 1962 spectacular Orpington byelection did not reveal much about the 1964 GE - neither did the January 1965 Leyton byelection offer much guidance re-the 1966 GE. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 3, 2021 13:00:51 GMT
It's not a great result for Labour, but it's the sort of result that wouldn't be inconsistent with a hung parliament at the next election (especially if the LDs are able to make inroads into the Tory flank.) And Labour is much more likely as things stand to be able to come to an arrangement with other parties than the Tories are. So it's not a result that produces very much celebration, but it also doesn't produce much concern. Applied nationally the result would see Labour exceed 300 seats in a GE - with theTories on circa 250. Yes, but you would usually expect by-elections to see greater swings that general elections, as differences in turnout enthusiasm are smoothed out somewhat and there's less incentive to protest vote. So you probably ought to be discounting that figure significantly. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2021 13:12:50 GMT
Applied nationally the result would see Labour exceed 300 seats in a GE - with theTories on circa 250. Yes, but you would usually expect by-elections to see greater swings that general elections, as differences in turnout enthusiasm are smoothed out somewhat and there's less incentive to protest vote. So you probably ought to be discounting that figure significantly. I tend to agree - though it does not always work out like that. Tessa Jowell lost the March 1978 Ilford North by election by a smaller majority than at the May 1979 GE. Labour's majority at the Berwick & East Lothian by election in late Autumn that year was bigger than achieved at the GE six months later. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 3, 2021 13:22:09 GMT
I didn't see the interview with Richard Tice but did the by-election end with RefUK complaining about postal and ethnic votes or have they finally moved on from that?
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 3, 2021 13:25:21 GMT
Historical swings:-
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 3, 2021 13:30:22 GMT
Whoever made that missed Eastleigh if we’re talking about government defences.
Also, oddly the by-elections are in reverse order in each Callander year.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 3, 2021 13:31:51 GMT
It's not a result to give Tories sleepless nights, some Labour folks might want to cling on to the fact that it's a higher swing than the current national polls but to me that's clutching at straws |
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Post by matureleft on Dec 3, 2021 13:38:55 GMT
Tories - a hold, and over 50%. They can be satisfied although might be a little worried about their abstention rate being so much higher than the others Labour - can be pleased with that swing but would probably have liked to narrow ot further if they're on the way to government Reform - disaster really. Should at least have hit 10% in this constituency under these circumstances Everyone else - also rans of no consequence Reform's best result under the name so far is not a disaster. 6% from the Tories could lose a lot of seats. The likelihood of that being repeated in a General Election when people are choosing a government is slim indeed. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 13:39:26 GMT
Reform need something really dramatic to happen (a la Euro 2014 elections) - or consistent notable polling in the way the Greens seem to manage now - if they're going to make real progress in a general election, and not just look like a completely wasted vote.
No such things as a wasted vote.
I agree, but the electorate may not. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2021 13:42:21 GMT
It's not a result to give Tories sleepless nights, some Labour folks might want to cling on to the fact that it's a higher swing than the current national polls but to me that's clutching at straws It can also reasonably be argued that the effect of Covid has been to delay Midterm in that political debate has been frozen out for so long. On that basis , it will be mid-2022 and later before we reach that point. - and that what we are seeing at the moment is more comparable to what in the past might have been expected a year or so into a Parliament. |
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Post by matureleft on Dec 3, 2021 13:58:08 GMT
Really worrying result for Reform. They got little more than what they’re polling nationally in a favourable seat (their vote is mostly Brexit voting 2019 Conservatives) in a by-election where they supposedly campaigned hard. If these circumstances only lead to a 6.6% vote share, then where are they going to even save their deposit come the general election? The difficulty with minor parties is that they often lack enough people with knowledge of how to campaign properly. What did they actually do? We heard about the claimed contact rate. They also suffer from an unclear identity with the path from UKIP to Brexit Party then Reform UK (a vague and arguably misleading name) seemingly only linked to Farage. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 14:16:49 GMT
Really worrying result for Reform. They got little more than what they’re polling nationally in a favourable seat (their vote is mostly Brexit voting 2019 Conservatives) in a by-election where they supposedly campaigned hard. If these circumstances only lead to a 6.6% vote share, then where are they going to even save their deposit come the general election? The difficulty with minor parties is that they often lack enough people with knowledge of how to campaign properly. What did they actually do? We heard about the claimed contact rate. They also suffer from an unclear identity with the path from UKIP to Brexit Party then Reform UK (a vague and arguably misleading name) seemingly only linked to Farage. All those Parties were one man shows as far as the voters were concerned. Reform is a no-man (or person) show, currently. Farage has charisma and a record of success in his main project. If he went back to Reform they would put fear into the Tories, and we see on this forum the range of issues on which they could outflank Johnson. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 3, 2021 14:27:11 GMT
FWIW, if the swing was repeated nationally  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 3, 2021 14:39:17 GMT
Looking at it like that (i've not got round to adding up the numbers) its not great, but we're a long way from the fabled days when the Parliamentary Conservative party was reduced to Norman Fowler (and frankly the 'its a better swing than anything in the 1959 parliament' is the most hilarious spin I've ever encountered even on here)
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 14:51:43 GMT
Looking at it like that (i've not got round to adding up the numbers) its not great, but we're a long way from the fabled days when the Parliamentary Conservative party was reduced to Norman Fowler (and frankly the 'its a better swing than anything in the 1959 parliament' is the most hilarious spin I've ever encountered even on here) Did you do one of those for Chesham and Amersham? They look like they could make a nice set of historical tablemats! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 3, 2021 14:53:54 GMT
Looking at it like that (i've not got round to adding up the numbers) its not great, but we're a long way from the fabled days when the Parliamentary Conservative party was reduced to Norman Fowler (and frankly the 'its a better swing than anything in the 1959 parliament' is the most hilarious spin I've ever encountered even on here) Did you do one of those for Chesham and Amersham? They look like they could make a nice set of historical tablemats! I think I did and would have posted it on that thread. I've done them for all the English by-elections in this Parliament |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 14:56:21 GMT
Did you do one of those for Chesham and Amersham? They look like they could make a nice set of historical tablemats! I think I did and would have posted it on that thread. I've done them for all the English by-elections in this Parliament OK, will have a look.. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 3, 2021 15:41:51 GMT
The reason the Old Bexley and Sidcup result stands out is not because it’s an abnormally large swing to the main opposition, it’s because it actually looks more like a normal by-election result. Hartlepool was a phenomenal result for the Conservatives/unmitigated disaster for Labour, Chesham and Amersham was amazing for the Lib Dems, and Batley and Spen was Labour narrowly holding a seat that voted for Corbyn twice with a big Galloway vote. By contrast, yesterday’s election saw a comfortable swing to the opposition and a modest smaller party protest vote. That this is seen by some as good for Labour/bad for the government is indicative of how odd the previous elections held under Johnson’s government have been.
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