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Post by rcronald on Dec 3, 2021 11:17:06 GMT
Tories - a hold, and over 50%. They can be satisfied although might be a little worried about their abstention rate being so much higher than the others Labour - can be pleased with that swing but would probably have liked to narrow ot further if they're on the way to government Reform - disaster really. Should at least have hit 10% in this constituency under these circumstances Everyone else - also rans of no consequence Reform's best result under the name so far is not a disaster. 6% from the Tories could lose a lot of seats. I would have probably voted reform in the by-election just as a warning shot, but there is no chance in hell that I’m voting for them in a GE….. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 3, 2021 11:21:43 GMT
Yes, a poor result for Reform would have been losing their deposit.
Avoiding that was the basic requirement to demonstrate at least some potential viability, and they managed it.
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 3, 2021 11:31:36 GMT
Tories - a hold, and over 50%. They can be satisfied although might be a little worried about their abstention rate being so much higher than the others Labour - can be pleased with that swing but would probably have liked to narrow ot further if they're on the way to government Reform - disaster really. Should at least have hit 10% in this constituency under these circumstances Everyone else - also rans of no consequence Reform's best result under the name so far is not a disaster. 6% from the Tories could lose a lot of seats. Not a disaster as he did save his deposit, but it's pretty damn poor. Tice will be very disappointed personally I imagine.
Your second point shows great naivety. Do you really think he took six points directly from the Tories? I'd be surprised if even a third of that was direct Tory -> REFUK movement. There'll be people who wouldn't normally vote and every seat in the country has a core protest vote of people who vote against the government for one reason or another. Undoubtedly there will have been people who voted Lib Dem, Labour, and Green last time who voted REFUK this time. If you don't think so, you've clearly not met enough of the electorate.
And that was a high profile campaign. A paper candidate would have seen them get 1-2%.
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Post by johnloony on Dec 3, 2021 11:33:10 GMT
Was there ever really a beginning for the Heritage Party? Coming fourth in Hartlepool was definitely a high point for them (and made me overestimate their potential). Conservative came 4th in Hartlepool. Whatever happened to them? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 11:33:56 GMT
Reform need something really dramatic to happen (a la Euro 2014 elections) - or consistent notable polling in the way the Greens seem to manage now - if they're going to make real progress in a general election, and not just look like a completely wasted vote.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 3, 2021 11:39:08 GMT
Reform need something really dramatic to happen (a la Euro 2014 elections) - or consistent notable polling in the way the Greens seem to manage now - if they're going to make real progress in a general election, and not just look like a completely wasted vote.
No such things as a wasted vote.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 3, 2021 11:40:56 GMT
It's not a great result for Labour, but it's the sort of result that wouldn't be inconsistent with a hung parliament at the next election (especially if the LDs are able to make inroads into the Tory flank.) And Labour is much more likely as things stand to be able to come to an arrangement with other parties than the Tories are. So it's not a result that produces very much celebration, but it also doesn't produce much concern.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 11:49:21 GMT
Dunt, as usual, goes overboard. But tactical voting is a developing theme and replacing Corbyn must help that along That's why North Shropshire will be interesting It is not just tactical voting (squeeze) but also switch. I don't know if we are going to win in Shropshire but we will get a lot more switches from Tories than Labour just did here. If this alleged pact is going to work, both sides will have to play much better than in 2019. The coalition led to an attitude among many in the Labour Party that the Lib Dems losing a seat to the Tories was a good thing. (understandable, imo, but not conducive to stopping a majority Tory government). In 2019 my Party was deluded by some constituency polls etc and we thought we could take a bunch of seats from third place. There has to be a bit of realism, and local bitterness in places like Stockport put aside.. Lib Dems have to work superhard to win any seat. The Lib Dem targets will be obvious to anyone in the constituency with a letterbox. The test will be what Labour do in a seat like Wimbledon. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2021 11:56:18 GMT
A 10.25% swing to Labour from the Tories is a pretty good result when compared to some earlier Parliaments. In the 1959 - 1964 period Labour only bettered that performance in a single seat - Stratford on Avon caused by the resignation of John Profumo in Summer of 1963.It is also much better than achieved by the party in Tory-held seats during the Heath Government - 1970 - 1974 - with the exception of Bromsgrove in May 1971 which pretty well matched it.
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2021 11:58:30 GMT
It's not a great result for Labour, but it's the sort of result that wouldn't be inconsistent with a hung parliament at the next election (especially if the LDs are able to make inroads into the Tory flank.) And Labour is much more likely as things stand to be able to come to an arrangement with other parties than the Tories are. So it's not a result that produces very much celebration, but it also doesn't produce much concern. Applied nationally the result would see Labour exceed 300 seats in a GE - with theTories on circa 250. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 3, 2021 12:00:17 GMT
It's not a great result for Labour, but it's the sort of result that wouldn't be inconsistent with a hung parliament at the next election (especially if the LDs are able to make inroads into the Tory flank.) And Labour is much more likely as things stand to be able to come to an arrangement with other parties than the Tories are. So it's not a result that produces very much celebration, but it also doesn't produce much concern. Applied nationally the result would see Labour exceed 300 seats in a GE - with theTories on circa 250.
So next general election the turn out will be less than 40%?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 3, 2021 12:01:07 GMT
Really worrying result for Reform. They got little more than what they’re polling nationally in a favourable seat (their vote is mostly Brexit voting 2019 Conservatives) in a by-election where they supposedly campaigned hard. If these circumstances only lead to a 6.6% vote share, then where are they going to even save their deposit come the general election?
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Post by andrewp on Dec 3, 2021 12:02:45 GMT
It is, and probably always will be, consciously easier for normally Conservative voters who want to protest about the Conservative government/ party to cast a vote for the Lib Dem’s ( or Reform/ UKIP etc) than for Labour in a by election. That is one of the reasons that it is more likely for the Lib Dem’s than Labour to be able to gain a Conservative seat from way back in a by election in my opinion. I suspect if the Lib Dem’s had started on 20% in Bexley and Sidcup they probably would have won.
For the annoyed normally Tory voter, they can vote Lib Dem knowing that they are not endorsing a possible alternative government/ PM. Casting a vote for Labour and the notion of an alternative government is further along the scale of being pissed off. Also, that person almost certainly knows more about Labour and their policies than the Lib Dem’s, the Lib Dem’s are a bit of a blank canvas protest vote to some of them.
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 3, 2021 12:04:37 GMT
Perhaps but this highlights the nonsense around making the Mayor the Returning Officer. The person who actually runs the election should be the Returning Officer; there's too much Acting and Deputy in the system for clarity. By all means allow the Mayor in regalia to make the announcement but electoral processes shouldn't be structured around that. (And in the process set down some clear consistent rules. All present & willing candidates lined up for the declaration. Party names/descriptions to be included in the announcement. Rejected ballot papers to be announced first to get them out of the way/give the TV time to switch over.) Full credit to the Mayor for reading out the rejected ballot papers first. Points deducted for only wearing the chain and not the full robes. If UKIP could defeat Reform (unlikely but not impossible in this seat) that could be Reform's equivalent of the SDP losing to the Monster Raving Loonies in Bootle. In May they did achieve that on the list vote in this constituency - Ukip 2.7% (5th best in London), RefUK 1.8% (4th best), Heritage 0.9% (1st best). However on the mayoral vote Reclaim got 3.3% (5th best) with Heritage (with Kurten as the candidate) taking 0.84% (1st best) and Ukip was not in their best five (so below 1.2%). Overall this looks like one of the places where the battle between Ukip and its breakaways is not settled - and Kurten complicates matters. And the outcome was firmly settled in RefUK's favour. I saw one Ukip leaflet but otherwise nothing. Did the party deny resources to the candidate (who stood against Hamilton for the leadership) or is this yet another sign to call it a day? Reform need something really dramatic to happen (a la Euro 2014 elections) - or consistent notable polling in the way the Greens seem to manage now - if they're going to make real progress in a general election, and not just look like a completely wasted vote. Is this why Nigel Farage is talking about yet another comeback? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 3, 2021 12:07:29 GMT
Really worrying result for Reform. They got little more than what they’re polling nationally in a favourable seat (their vote is mostly Brexit voting 2019 Conservatives) in a by-election where they supposedly campaigned hard. If these circumstances only lead to a 6.6% vote share, then where are they going to even save their deposit come the general election? In YouGov surveys, some other pollsters beg to differ a bit. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 12:24:08 GMT
A 10.25% swing to Labour from the Tories is a pretty good result when compared to some earlier Parliaments. In the 1959 - 1964 period Labour only bettered that performance in a single seat - Stratford on Avon caused by the resignation of John Profumo in Summer of 1963.It is also much better than achieved by the party in Tory-held seats during the Heath Government - 1970 - 1974 - with the exception of Bromsgrove in May 1971 which pretty well matched it. But it’s not really a 10% swing (sadly) the gap between Labour & the Tories was artificially shrunk by the Tories voting FUKUP REFUK |
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Post by ibfc on Dec 3, 2021 12:25:39 GMT
Dunt, as usual, goes overboard. But tactical voting is a developing theme and replacing Corbyn must help that along That's why North Shropshire will be interesting Add that to Brexit no longer motivating voters on the right flank and Johnson is in quite a bit of trouble. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2021 12:31:13 GMT
A 10.25% swing to Labour from the Tories is a pretty good result when compared to some earlier Parliaments. In the 1959 - 1964 period Labour only bettered that performance in a single seat - Stratford on Avon caused by the resignation of John Profumo in Summer of 1963.It is also much better than achieved by the party in Tory-held seats during the Heath Government - 1970 - 1974 - with the exception of Bromsgrove in May 1971 which pretty well matched it. But it’s not really a 10% swing (sadly) the gap between Labour & the Tories was artificially inflated by the Tories voting FUKUP REFUK It is how 'swing' has always been calculated! The intervention of other candidates will inevitably have an effect on both main parties. Thus if as result of new party standing which polls - say - 12%, the Tory vote falls by 10% and the Labour vote by 2% , the result would still represent a swing from Tory to Labour of 4% - because the Tory majority has fallen by 8% - or the Labour majority has increased by 8%. In this case,however, Labour's vote has actually increased by over 7%.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Dec 3, 2021 12:45:59 GMT
I think it falls into the ‘uneventful’ category, a bit like Newark.
In the last few years we’ve become used to some drama - Brexit finding a way to lose Peterborough against all the odds, Chesham & Amersham with a huge majority overturned etc.
Perhaps we might start getting some more boring ones.
Hopefully not.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 12:50:24 GMT
But it’s not really a 10% swing (sadly) the gap between Labour & the Tories was artificially inflated by the Tories voting FUKUP REFUK It is how 'swing' has always been calculated! The intervention of other candidates will inevitably have an effect on both main parties. Thus if as result of new party standing which polls - say - 12%, the Tory vote falls by 10% and the Labour vote by 2% , the result would still represent a swing from Tory to Labour of 4% - because the Tory majority has fallen by 8% - or the Labour majority has increased by 8%. In this case,however, Labour's vote has actually increased by over 7%.
I appreciate what you mean by swing !! but it does imply a 2 party transaction (for want of a better word) when clearly this isn't the case. |
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