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Post by swanarcadian on Dec 3, 2021 7:34:21 GMT
10 percent swing, mid term, after 11 years in office. One can never be complacent but it has to be said, I’ve seen much, much worse.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 7:35:40 GMT
The Tories got a higher vote share in Hartlepool (51.9%) than in Old Bexley & Sidcup (51.5%).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 7:42:27 GMT
10 percent swing, mid term, after 11 years in office. One can never be complacent but it has to be said, I’ve seen much, much worse. low turnout, govt hold with the REFUK vote to return at the next GE. Bexley & Sidcup decided not to vote Labour shock horror. Nothing to see, move on .... |
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right
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Post by right on Dec 3, 2021 8:33:45 GMT
10 percent swing, mid term, after 11 years in office. One can never be complacent but it has to be said, I’ve seen much, much worse. In a way this is a bad result for us for this very reason. It's clear we're alienating base supporters and there's a competence issue, but while the main opposition is a dud then we'll get results like this and any Tory MP not sitting on an ex Liberal seat will simply shrug at every mishap. Starmer's strategy of taking to the centre and burying Brexit is a decent strategy. We can't rely forever, not even to the next election, on continued Labour poor tactics and execution. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Dec 3, 2021 8:53:34 GMT
The ultimate ‘nothing to see here’ result.
My main takeaway - disagreeing with several views above - is that it was awful for Reform:UK. Small parties don’t get to choose where by-elections happen but they need to take full advantage when they can. Reform:UK went for it, party leader, big campaign, disaffected Tories all around, and get a measly 6%. Even UKIP got 8% back in Bromley in 2006. I would not want to bet money on them holding another deposit - ever - based on this.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 3, 2021 9:08:36 GMT
That's a hefty drop for the Tories. Not the 19.9 points from C&A, but there was no clear opposition here.
Not a bad result for us given how this is hardly fertile ground. Up 7.4 points which means people switching to us (however much the pundits say nobody did) and/or our voters being more likely to turnout.
I think this result definitely seems to vindicate recent polls which have us a touch ahead nationally.
Then there's REFUK. I've already seen stuff online that 6% was a good result. Yes, they saved their deposit (just), but not much more than a thousand votes is nothing given the money spent on the campaign, the '90% of doors knocked' or whatever it was, their 'amazing app', and the ridiculous amount of media coverage the party got. Without their star leader or raison d'être, the party seems totally aimless with next to no support in the real world.
That is a lot worse for Labour than I expected. Most of the increase was the expected squeeze of the Lib Dem vote, with only 2-3% switch from the Tories. The biggest change was Tory abstentions at a higher rate than the rest. The Labour % was only a couple of % better than 2017, and with the mid term blues of the current Tories Starmer should have got more than that. Over a 10% swing to Labour isn't bad at all given, as I said, this isn't fertile ground for us demographically and has no Labour history.
Looking at the prediction thread, most were predicting high 20s to low 30s. At 'a lot worse', maybe your prediction was just off? The Tory share above 50% is down to the almost complete absence of third parties. I can't believe there are people on this very forum saying it was a reasonable result for Tice. I didn't expect him to do particularly well. Basically every election they've stood in as ReformUK has not gone well, but to barely save his deposit in a seat they'd targeted heavily can only be seen as a disappointment.
swanarcadian A mid-term poll, yes, but isn't one of the big things about Boris Johnson that the public don't see this as the 11th year of a Tory government? Major was a governmental continuation of Thatcher, Brown of Blair, May of Cameron, but Boris Johnson is seen as something totally different.
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Post by rcronald on Dec 3, 2021 9:26:22 GMT
10 percent swing, mid term, after 11 years in office. One can never be complacent but it has to be said, I’ve seen much, much worse. I still remember Timpson winning Crewe on an 18% swing back in 08. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 9:30:33 GMT
That is a lot worse for Labour than I expected. Most of the increase was the expected squeeze of the Lib Dem vote, with only 2-3% switch from the Tories. The biggest change was Tory abstentions at a higher rate than the rest. The Labour % was only a couple of % better than 2017, and with the mid term blues of the current Tories Starmer should have got more than that. Over a 10% swing to Labour isn't bad at all given, as I said, this isn't fertile ground for us demographically and has no Labour history.
Looking at the prediction thread, most were predicting high 20s to low 30s. At 'a lot worse', maybe your prediction was just off? The Tory share above 50% is down to the almost complete absence of third parties. I can't believe there are people on this very forum saying it was a reasonable result for Tice. I didn't expect him to do particularly well. Basically every election they've stood in as ReformUK has not gone well, but to barely save his deposit in a seat they'd targeted heavily can only be seen as a disappointment.
swanarcadian A mid-term poll, yes, but isn't one of the big things about Boris Johnson that the public don't see this as the 11th year of a Tory government? Major was a governmental continuation of Thatcher, Brown of Blair, May of Cameron, but Boris Johnson is seen as something totally different.
I agree re. Reform. Their poor performance relative to effort put in is good news for the Tories and hence bad news for Labour. But "10% swing Tory to Labour" is comfort blanket self delusion. In reality it was at most a 3% swing Tory to Labour. The real swings were Tory to Reform and Lib Dem to Lab tactical voting. And most of that 3% was low turnout by Tory voters. Most of the seats Labour lost in 2019 have very little Lib Dem vote to squeeze. You need either Tory switchers or UKIP scale splintering off to the right. What woukd worry the Tories would be Farage going back to Reform. Tice is far too nice. |
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 3, 2021 9:41:07 GMT
Over a 10% swing to Labour isn't bad at all given, as I said, this isn't fertile ground for us demographically and has no Labour history.
Looking at the prediction thread, most were predicting high 20s to low 30s. At 'a lot worse', maybe your prediction was just off? The Tory share above 50% is down to the almost complete absence of third parties. I can't believe there are people on this very forum saying it was a reasonable result for Tice. I didn't expect him to do particularly well. Basically every election they've stood in as ReformUK has not gone well, but to barely save his deposit in a seat they'd targeted heavily can only be seen as a disappointment.
swanarcadian A mid-term poll, yes, but isn't one of the big things about Boris Johnson that the public don't see this as the 11th year of a Tory government? Major was a governmental continuation of Thatcher, Brown of Blair, May of Cameron, but Boris Johnson is seen as something totally different. I agree re. Reform. Their poor performance relative to effort put in is good news for the Tories and hence bad news for Labour. But "10% swing Tory to Labour" is comfort blanket self delusion. In reality it was at most a 3% swing Tory to Labour. The real swings were Tory to Reform and Lib Dem to Lab tactical voting. And most of that 3% was low turnout by Tory voters. Most of the seats Labour lost in 2019 have very little Lib Dem vote to squeeze. You need either Tory switchers or UKIP scale splintering off to the right. What woukd worry the Tories would be Farage going back to Reform. Tice is far too nice. Also depends where Reform is positioned on the spectrum. Their pitch is far too narrow. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 3, 2021 9:50:43 GMT
It would be good to see Johnson and his government get a good rinsing here but I think it is out of reach for both opposition parties. Even if Reform stand and take a healthy vote share (the latter seems unlikely) - I think it'll remain in the blue column. I think the 2nd/3rd battle will be more intense than that for 1st/2nd. I've forgotten already whose project Reform is so I suspect any traction may be limited. This post gets my nomination for "most Lib Dem post of 2021". 5th place and a lost deposit: now that is intense. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 9:58:58 GMT
Tories - a hold, and over 50%. They can be satisfied although might be a little worried about their abstention rate being so much higher than the others
Labour - can be pleased with that swing but would probably have liked to narrow ot further if they're on the way to government
Reform - disaster really. Should at least have hit 10% in this constituency under these circumstances
Everyone else - also rans of no consequence
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Post by matureleft on Dec 3, 2021 10:04:47 GMT
An "OK" result for both the Tories and Labour. As I said up thread there was no basis for suggesting any other result in the context of both the national picture and the local circumstances in the constituency. We are nowhere near the Major period disasters where any seat was vulnerable, normally to Labour. A gentle signal of mild boredom and irritation from a very loyal electorate. The local circumstances in North Shropshire and the perceived main opposition that is more suitable for a brief, mild protest vote may well produce a rather different result.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 3, 2021 10:11:09 GMT
An "OK" result for both the Tories and Labour. As I said up thread there was no basis for suggesting any other result in the context of both the national picture and the local circumstances in the constituency. We are nowhere near the Major period disasters where any seat was vulnerable, normally to Labour. A gentle signal of mild boredom and irritation from a very loyal electorate. The local circumstances in North Shropshire and the perceived main opposition that is more suitable for a brief, mild protest vote may well produce a rather different result. Perfectly good result for LDs too, if you want to be cynical. Tory vote share down to circa 2005 level in this safe Tory constituency but no Labour breakthrough. Bet we could easily have saved our deposit if we'd tried but we didn't for obvious reasons. Bit of goodwill from Labour for doing so pretty clearly being mirrored in N Shrops. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Dec 3, 2021 10:19:50 GMT
Exactly the sort of result you’d expect in a safe seat by-election after a party has been in power so long, overall Johnson won’t be too damaged by it after the spell he’s had recently
Guess it comes down to North Shropshire now
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msc
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Post by msc on Dec 3, 2021 10:31:59 GMT
Much as expected then. Tory vote down but still safe in this seat, Labour vote up slightly. Lib vote down when not immediate challengers. (In Amersham, the Labour and Lib Dem positions were reversed and it was the Labour vote that crashed instead - interesting to see if this carries on.) If Old Bexley had been too close to call or a gain, we'd be in a Tory annihilation landscape, which would have been news to me!
Backs my overall gut feeling with the polls that the government are falling in popularity, and that Labour have risen slowly but not to a game changing level yet. (Although obviously a 10% swing across the country would change the government but, Christmas by-election, low turnout..)
Nobody will get carried away, but neither will they lose hope over this one. A lot of water to pass under the bridge before the next election.
As for Reform, saving your deposit on only around a 1000 votes tells a story in itself!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 3, 2021 11:00:07 GMT
I find it hilarious that the margin is larger then almost all of the projections that were made here, yet people are dooming….. Smaller Tory-Lab swing than Corby in 2012. But you would expect that given Corby was actually a Labour target! Yes this is a somewhat better result than Tories may have feared, but I still wouldn't go overboard about it. This is, as remarked when the vacancy first came up, a deep-dyed Tory place in the way some seats with similar majorities are not (as we *might* see in a fortnight) and the circumstances were also pretty benign - well respected across the board incumbent dies, their successor is a local worthy who stays clear of trouble (save for one remark about second jobs) throughout the campaign. North Shropshire was always likely to be more interesting. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 11:04:21 GMT
Smaller Tory-Lab swing than Corby in 2012. But you would expect that given Corby was actually a Labour target! Yes this is a somewhat better result than Tories may have feared, but I still wouldn't go overboard about it. This is, as remarked when the vacancy first came up, a deep-dyed Tory place in the way some seats with similar majorities are not (as we *might* see in a fortnight) and the circumstances were also pretty benign - well respected across the board incumbent dies, their successor is a local worthy who stays clear of trouble (save for one remark about second jobs) throughout the campaign. North Shropshire was always likely to be more interesting.Which also makes the result likely irrelevant in the long term. (Just getting the excuses in early  ) |
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right
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Post by right on Dec 3, 2021 11:06:21 GMT
Dunt, as usual, goes overboard. But tactical voting is a developing theme and replacing Corbyn must help that along
That's why North Shropshire will be interesting
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 3, 2021 11:09:48 GMT
Over a 10% swing to Labour isn't bad at all given, as I said, this isn't fertile ground for us demographically and has no Labour history.
Looking at the prediction thread, most were predicting high 20s to low 30s. At 'a lot worse', maybe your prediction was just off? The Tory share above 50% is down to the almost complete absence of third parties. I can't believe there are people on this very forum saying it was a reasonable result for Tice. I didn't expect him to do particularly well. Basically every election they've stood in as ReformUK has not gone well, but to barely save his deposit in a seat they'd targeted heavily can only be seen as a disappointment.
swanarcadian A mid-term poll, yes, but isn't one of the big things about Boris Johnson that the public don't see this as the 11th year of a Tory government? Major was a governmental continuation of Thatcher, Brown of Blair, May of Cameron, but Boris Johnson is seen as something totally different. I agree re. Reform. Their poor performance relative to effort put in is good news for the Tories and hence bad news for Labour. But "10% swing Tory to Labour" is comfort blanket self delusion. In reality it was at most a 3% swing Tory to Labour. The real swings were Tory to Reform and Lib Dem to Lab tactical voting. And most of that 3% was low turnout by Tory voters. Most of the seats Labour lost in 2019 have very little Lib Dem vote to squeeze. You need either Tory switchers or UKIP scale splintering off to the right. What woukd worry the Tories would be Farage going back to Reform. Tice is far too nice. And quite a few seats Labour lost in 2019 have more scope for Tory switchers than this one. A rule of thumb is that a bad Tory result here would have been them dropping below 50%, and Labour going above one third. We were a bit short of that in both respects, but lets not go overboard in the other direction saying it was a brilliant result for the Tories and terrible for Labour - its still actually only the latter's second increase in vote share for a Westminster byelection since the 2016 referendum. "Meh" pretty much sums it up IMO. |
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right
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Post by right on Dec 3, 2021 11:14:50 GMT
Tories - a hold, and over 50%. They can be satisfied although might be a little worried about their abstention rate being so much higher than the others Labour - can be pleased with that swing but would probably have liked to narrow ot further if they're on the way to government Reform - disaster really. Should at least have hit 10% in this constituency under these circumstances Everyone else - also rans of no consequence Reform's best result under the name so far is not a disaster. 6% from the Tories could lose a lot of seats. |
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