graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Dec 3, 2021 1:57:57 GMT
Swing from Tory to Labour is 10.25%
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 3, 2021 1:58:10 GMT
David Kurten looked utterly depressed at the declaration. Is this the end of the Heritage Party?
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Post by agbutler on Dec 3, 2021 1:59:37 GMT
David Kurten looked utterly depressed at the declaration. Is this the end of the Heritage Party? Was there ever really a beginning for the Heritage Party? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 2:00:34 GMT
David Kurten looked utterly depressed at the declaration. Is this the end of the Heritage Party? I presume he has a big ego. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 3, 2021 2:03:29 GMT
David Kurten looked utterly depressed at the declaration. Is this the end of the Heritage Party? Was there ever really a beginning for the Heritage Party? Coming fourth in Hartlepool was definitely a high point for them (and made me overestimate their potential). |
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Post by ibnu on Dec 3, 2021 2:05:12 GMT
Was there ever really a beginning for the Heritage Party? Coming fourth in Hartlepool was definitely a high point for them (and made me overestimate their potential). I mean when your potenial is negligible that's pretty easy to do so. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,013
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 3, 2021 2:10:11 GMT
The key line here is that the Tories still polled over 50%. With everything else going on I'm sure they'll take that.
It does point to pretty terrible campaigning by everyone else though (this was a golden opportunity for RefUK and to not even break 10% must be very disappointing, especially with this turnout).
North Shropshire I expect will be a somewhat different story...
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Dec 3, 2021 2:10:28 GMT
CON: 51.5% (-13.1) LAB: 30.9% (+7.4) REFUK: 6.6% (+6.6)
That's a hefty drop for the Tories. Not the 19.9 points from C&A, but there was no clear opposition here.
Not a bad result for us given how this is hardly fertile ground. Up 7.4 points which means people switching to us (however much the pundits say nobody did) and/or our voters being more likely to turnout.
I think this result definitely seems to vindicate recent polls which have us a touch ahead nationally.
Then there's REFUK. I've already seen stuff online that 6% was a good result. Yes, they saved their deposit (just), but not much more than a thousand votes is nothing given the money spent on the campaign, the '90% of doors knocked' or whatever it was, their 'amazing app', and the ridiculous amount of media coverage the party got. Without their star leader or raison d'être, the party seems totally aimless with next to no support in the real world.
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 3, 2021 2:21:35 GMT
I didn't mention it before but the empty RefUK bus driving round and round the constituency during the campaign did not look impressive. Only the night before did it seem to have anyone on it.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Dec 3, 2021 2:25:56 GMT
This result is just about bad enough for the media to portray the Tories as starting to lose ground and for Labour to claim some sort of victory. Its not bad enough for the blue team to actually worry or for the red team to imagine that they might be on the road to government. However, if this contest had been held six months ago there would probably not have been a significant swing away from the Tories, so there are genuine signs of declining support, and no doubt this swing would lose the Cons several seats if replicated at a general election. This is a "reduced majority" level swing, nothing more. North Shropshire might indeed prove more of a challenge. I have observed starting in May onwards that the Tories do worse when their main opponent is someone other than Labour.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Dec 3, 2021 2:39:44 GMT
I didn't mention it before but the empty RefUK bus driving round and round the constituency during the campaign did not look impressive. Only the night before did it seem to have anyone on it.
On Election Day 1997 I witnessed a minibus driving *one person and a cake* from one end of the seat to the other and back again.
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Post by johnloony on Dec 3, 2021 2:42:22 GMT
Biggest net swing from Con to Lab in a parliamentary by-election since 2014
Biggest share of the vote for a Conservative hold in a parliamentary by-election since 2008
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 3:58:31 GMT
Old Bexley and Sidcup swing: 10.2%
1997 General Election national swing: 10%
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Post by rcronald on Dec 3, 2021 4:08:35 GMT
I find it hilarious that the margin is larger then almost all of the projections that were made here, yet people are dooming…..
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 4:20:53 GMT
If the Conservative to Labour swing in Old Bexley & Sidcup swing was repeated nationally, Labour would win 322 seats including Boris Johnson's: www.yapms.com/app/?m=dat1 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 4:20:56 GMT
I find it hilarious that the margin is larger then almost all of the projections that were made here, yet people are dooming….. Smaller Tory-Lab swing than Corby in 2012. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 3, 2021 5:00:35 GMT
Labour lost 38% of their vote compared to 2019.
(Mind you, the Tories lost 62% and the LDs 83%. Greens 44, CPA 52)
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 6:29:57 GMT
CON: 51.5% (-13.1) LAB: 30.9% (+7.4) REFUK: 6.6% (+6.6)
That's a hefty drop for the Tories. Not the 19.9 points from C&A, but there was no clear opposition here.
Not a bad result for us given how this is hardly fertile ground. Up 7.4 points which means people switching to us (however much the pundits say nobody did) and/or our voters being more likely to turnout.
I think this result definitely seems to vindicate recent polls which have us a touch ahead nationally.
Then there's REFUK. I've already seen stuff online that 6% was a good result. Yes, they saved their deposit (just), but not much more than a thousand votes is nothing given the money spent on the campaign, the '90% of doors knocked' or whatever it was, their 'amazing app', and the ridiculous amount of media coverage the party got. Without their star leader or raison d'être, the party seems totally aimless with next to no support in the real world.
That is a lot worse for Labour than I expected. Most of the increase was the expected squeeze of the Lib Dem vote, with only 2-3% switch from the Tories. The biggest change was Tory abstentions at a higher rate than the rest. The Labour % was only a couple of % better than 2017, and with the mid term blues of the current Tories Starmer should have got more than that. |
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Post by ibfc on Dec 3, 2021 6:32:46 GMT
I find it hilarious that the margin is larger then almost all of the projections that were made here, yet people are dooming….. I think this is a much better performance than what this government could’ve reasonably expected at this point. Not sure who that’s supposed to comfort but as mentioned upthread, I think the Conservatives are going to struggle a lot more in places where Labour is not the main challenger. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 3, 2021 6:46:04 GMT
Very disappointed that Mad Mike came last. Good result for Tice though. Enough to scare the Tories. This could be the start of the beginning! |
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