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Post by andrew111 on Dec 2, 2021 15:21:15 GMT
It does feel like if the Conservatives had to choose one of their seats for a by election at the moment, Old Bexley and Sidcup would be towards the top of the list- 60+% leave and no Lib Dem base or history. Had the ageing Edward Heath resigned or died in the 1992-97 parliament, presumably a BE here at that time would have resulted in a Labour gain , and if he had died or resigned in the 1997-2001 parliament, a by election here would have been an interesting battle. Indeed. Dudley West 1994, 29% swing Con to Lab |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 2, 2021 15:35:13 GMT
It does feel like if the Conservatives had to choose one of their seats for a by election at the moment, Old Bexley and Sidcup would be towards the top of the list- 60+% leave and no Lib Dem base or history. Had the ageing Edward Heath resigned or died in the 1992-97 parliament, presumably a BE here at that time would have resulted in a Labour gain , and if he had died or resigned in the 1997-2001 parliament, a by election here would have been an interesting battle. I've no doubt, but it would have been a price worth paying.. |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 2, 2021 16:13:28 GMT
It does feel like if the Conservatives had to choose one of their seats for a by election at the moment, Old Bexley and Sidcup would be towards the top of the list- 60+% leave and no Lib Dem base or history. Had the ageing Edward Heath resigned or died in the 1992-97 parliament, presumably a BE here at that time would have resulted in a Labour gain , and if he had died or resigned in the 1997-2001 parliament, a by election here would have been an interesting battle. The Conservative Party would have lost all parliamentary by-elections in 1993-1996 regardless of what type of constituency they were in. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 2, 2021 16:25:00 GMT
I did not visit Chesham and Amersham, but Facebook suggests a large number of Lib Dem posters. That was all part of creating momentum in the campaign, and people were apparently very happy to join the winning team with a poster once they thought an upset was on the cards. My impression is that the Labour Party believe you win elections by "voter Id" these days, and that visible signs of support are not very important. Chesham Itself was covered in LD posters, something I found plesently pleasing when walking from the Tube Station to our HQ. As you said people enjoy being part of the winning team and the LD success in the local town council a few weeks before undoubtedly helped too. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 2, 2021 16:58:01 GMT
It's a measure of the long-lasting legacy of Spike Milligan and the Goon Show that any mention of Bexhill-on-Sea will still instantly prompt suggestions of batter-pudding hurling. And that is a very good thing. Pavilioned in splendour, we are Delaware of that. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,774
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 2, 2021 17:59:05 GMT
It's a measure of the long-lasting legacy of Spike Milligan and the Goon Show that any mention of Bexhill-on-Sea will still instantly prompt suggestions of batter-pudding hurling. And that is a very good thing. It does no such thing, instantly or otherwise. Nobody in the world has ever associated Bexhill-on-Sea with anything to do with batter pudding, hurled or otherwise, nor has had any reason to make any such association. It is the height of absurdity and illogicality to cite in evidence an episode of a radio programme which nobody has ever listened to, and which - if it ever existed in the first place, which I doubt - was, by definition, broadcast many years before anybody was born. You're right. I know the episode by reading it.  |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 2, 2021 18:05:16 GMT
It's a measure of the long-lasting legacy of Spike Milligan and the Goon Show that any mention of Bexhill-on-Sea will still instantly prompt suggestions of batter-pudding hurling. And that is a very good thing. Pavilioned in splendour, we are Delaware of that. Easy as ABC, although murder at other times. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 2, 2021 18:12:23 GMT
It does feel like if the Conservatives had to choose one of their seats for a by election at the moment, Old Bexley and Sidcup would be towards the top of the list- 60+% leave and no Lib Dem base or history. Had the ageing Edward Heath resigned or died in the 1992-97 parliament, presumably a BE here at that time would have resulted in a Labour gain , and if he had died or resigned in the 1997-2001 parliament, a by election here would have been an interesting battle. The Conservative Party would have lost all parliamentary by-elections in 1993-1996 regardless of what type of constituency they were in. Not sure about the then Chelsea seat but I agree in 99% of seats |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2021 18:25:35 GMT
What are we thinking... 4 or 5 am declaration?
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Post by andrewp on Dec 2, 2021 18:35:32 GMT
What are we thinking... 4 or 5 am declaration? Wouldn’t we hope for a bit earlier? Low turnout and compact constituency. |
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Post by bigfatron on Dec 2, 2021 18:41:47 GMT
I can't see much of a turnout - it's bloody cold here with a bit of sleet, which is about 8 miles from Sidcup
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Post by tonyhill on Dec 2, 2021 19:47:04 GMT
How can a radio programme "by definition" be broadcast many years before anybody was born? I for one used to listen to it - didn't like it much though.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 2, 2021 20:16:59 GMT
It was first broadcast in 1954, so originally before my time, but my dad had the episodes on old reel-tape (I’ve no idea how he acquired them, apart from my paternal grandparents used to keep the pub frequented by early BBC Radio Stoke people, some of whom had been at the BBC in the days of The Light Service), so I heard it often growing up, and as its veracity was questioned…
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Post by londonseal80 on Dec 2, 2021 20:38:36 GMT
The Conservative Party would have lost all parliamentary by-elections in 1993-1996 regardless of what type of constituency they were in. Not sure about the then Chelsea seat but I agree in 99% of seats I would have said the following seats to be likely Tory held (maybe very marginally in some cases) in a 1993 by election Chertsey and Walton Epsom and Ewell Reigate Surrey East Surrey Heath Tonbridge and Malling Sevenoaks Aldershot Hertsmere Broxbourne Saffron Walden Mid Kent |
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 2, 2021 20:50:25 GMT
Not sure about the then Chelsea seat but I agree in 99% of seats I would have said the following seats to be likely Tory held (maybe very marginally in some cases) in a 1993 by election Chertsey and Walton Epsom and Ewell Reigate Surrey East Surrey Heath Tonbridge and Malling Sevenoaks Aldershot Hertsmere Broxbourne Saffron Walden Mid Kent I’d say Beckenham too given Labour couldn’t win it in a by-election a few years later and that the demographics would have been more favourable in 1993-6. Beaconsfield too. |
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Post by redvers on Dec 2, 2021 21:09:11 GMT
Apologies if already answered, but anyone showing an election special tonight?
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Post by justin124 on Dec 2, 2021 21:18:36 GMT
Not sure about the then Chelsea seat but I agree in 99% of seats I would have said the following seats to be likely Tory held (maybe very marginally in some cases) in a 1993 by election Chertsey and Walton Epsom and Ewell Reigate Surrey East Surrey Heath Tonbridge and Malling Sevenoaks Aldershot Hertsmere Broxbourne Saffron Walden Mid Kent Labour was actually quite competive in Saffron Walden in the days when RA Butler was the MP. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Dec 2, 2021 21:22:55 GMT
Apologies if already answered, but anyone showing an election special tonight? I thought GB News was but I've just looked at the schedule and it doesn't look like it. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,815
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Post by iang on Dec 2, 2021 21:29:34 GMT
It does feel like if the Conservatives had to choose one of their seats for a by election at the moment, Old Bexley and Sidcup would be towards the top of the list- 60+% leave and no Lib Dem base or history. Had the ageing Edward Heath resigned or died in the 1992-97 parliament, presumably a BE here at that time would have resulted in a Labour gain , and if he had died or resigned in the 1997-2001 parliament, a by election here would have been an interesting battle. On the boundaries then. On the current boundaries, the LDs would have had some history and been quite competitive - in the mid 90s, they would have held the wards in the Welling part of the seat, but back then, that was in Bexleyheath. In 1994, most of those wards had been LD since the early/ mid 80s, but were to be lost in 1998 & 2002 |
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Post by agbutler on Dec 2, 2021 21:38:06 GMT
Apologies if already answered, but anyone showing an election special tonight? Sky News apparently |
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