bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 2, 2021 11:35:20 GMT
Hopefully the government loses at least one of these by-elections. I don't care which, who to, and/or why. I'm sure many on the Labour left would also have quietly wanted Labour to lose Batley and Spen (to Galloway if not the Tories) , making it 2 spectacular losses in a row and the calls to resign would have come out then. Now after Chesham could it be 2 in a row for Johnson? The Tory party unlike Labour are quite adept at turfing out ailing leaders... not only Thatcher, never forget IDS... |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 2, 2021 11:38:54 GMT
This whole Christmas party last year story seems to be the final headline ‘bombshell’ (short of anything on the day), will it have any impact or is this genuinely a storm in a teacup, digging up a party from last year which the PM may or may not have gone to. Many people may even sympathise and may have had their own illicit parties, or would it still have an impact and a compound the ‘one rule for them’ feeling, from those who genuinely cancelled their Christmas work parties and other social interactions at that time, for example? There are so many of these stories that it will make no difference imo. The problem for Johnson is breaking promises and constant u-turns. It just looks like he is not in control. His personal life is discounted and people expect little or nothing from him there, apart from the many who already hate him. (the possible exception being the suspicion that there is a power behind the throne) Without Cummings it leaves him even more exposed and vulnerable (DC of course calls him the Trolley), everything that he does that goes wrong/looks bad is now his fault, save for the few that also like to say his wife is the one truly in power. Whereas if Cummings was still around everybody would just blame him (for example the Paterson affair and vote) |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Dec 2, 2021 12:29:15 GMT
There are so many of these stories that it will make no difference imo. The problem for Johnson is breaking promises and constant u-turns. It just looks like he is not in control. His personal life is discounted and people expect little or nothing from him there, apart from the many who already hate him. (the possible exception being the suspicion that there is a power behind the throne) Without Cummings it leaves him even more exposed and vulnerable (DC of course calls him the Trolley), everything that he does that goes wrong/looks bad is now his fault, save for the few that also like to say his wife is the one truly in power. Whereas if Cummings was still around everybody would just blame him (for example the Paterson affair and vote) I'd expect the reverse to be true; had Dominic Cummings still been in post, he'd have spotted the danger of such blatant corruption to try to save Owen Paterson a mile off, not least because he'd remember Barnard Castle. He'd have had no sympathy for Tory toffs protecting their own. I actually suggest that it's the absence of a Cummings-type figure that has caused some of the recent damage. Shows how exciting events in Bexley and Old Sidcup are that we're discussing this on polling day though. If anyone wants to explain the Bexhill reference above to the young/ignorant please feel free as well..... |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Dec 2, 2021 12:29:21 GMT
Hopefully the government loses at least one of these by-elections. I don't care which, who to, and/or why. I'm sure many on the Labour left would also have quietly wanted Labour to lose Batley and Spen (to Galloway if not the Tories) , making it 2 spectacular losses in a row and the calls to resign would have come out then. Now after Chesham could it be 2 in a row for Johnson? The Tory party unlike Labour are quite adept at turfing out ailing leaders... not only Thatcher, never forget IDS... Do you think the Tories could lose this seat? |
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Post by ibnu on Dec 2, 2021 12:32:29 GMT
Tories will hold it with a 6-7k majority, normaly it would be seen as a terrible result if it wasn't for the oppostion failling at exepectations management and good managment from the tories. Similar to how Starmer was able to spin objectivley terrible results in Batley and Spen as a victory for the party.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 2, 2021 12:49:23 GMT
I'm sure many on the Labour left would also have quietly wanted Labour to lose Batley and Spen (to Galloway if not the Tories) , making it 2 spectacular losses in a row and the calls to resign would have come out then. Now after Chesham could it be 2 in a row for Johnson? The Tory party unlike Labour are quite adept at turfing out ailing leaders... not only Thatcher, never forget IDS... Do you think the Tories could lose this seat? After Chesham, who knows? The majority here is only around 2k higher than it was in Chesham, which also never had a sub-5-figure majority even in 1997 whereas here Heath's majority was trimmed down to 3k so large swings have happened here before, if Labour gets the majority back down to that level that would be good and a win a bonus as it were. And if the Tories do hang on, then Labour mustn't do an 'Amanda Milling' on Friday morning... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2021 12:56:48 GMT
Tories will hold it with a 6-7k majority, normaly it would be seen as a terrible result if it wasn't for the oppostion failling at exepectations management and good managment from the tories. Similar to how Starmer was able to spin objectivley terrible results in Batley and Spen as a victory for the party. Depends how you define "objectively" - literally nobody thought beforehand that a Galloway share of over 20% would mean anything but a Tory win, and likely comfortably. As for this one, I don't think the Tories are seriously worried about losing. They may be concerned that lots of their supporters staying at home or drifting to right wing splinters (plus even a few protest voting for Labour) could mean the majority is embarrassingly low. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 2, 2021 13:00:30 GMT
There are so many of these stories that it will make no difference imo. The problem for Johnson is breaking promises and constant u-turns. It just looks like he is not in control. His personal life is discounted and people expect little or nothing from him there, apart from the many who already hate him. (the possible exception being the suspicion that there is a power behind the throne) Without Cummings it leaves him even more exposed and vulnerable (DC of course calls him the Trolley), everything that he does that goes wrong/looks bad is now his fault, save for the few that also like to say his wife is the one truly in power. Whereas if Cummings was still around everybody would just blame him (for example the Paterson affair and vote) DC calls him that? Who is pushing the trolley? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 2, 2021 13:06:36 GMT
If anyone wants to explain the Bexhill reference above to the young/ignorant please feel free as well..... Feel free to share this:
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Post by andrewp on Dec 2, 2021 13:32:18 GMT
According to a Times article on the by election today, ‘one local Tory source predicted that the majority would be between 7-8,000 but that it could go lower.
As usual they managed to find a couple of voters.
Freda, 73, used to vote Labour, but stopped under Corbyn because he was too left wing, but thinks that Starner doesn’t seem to have a lot of drive, but he’s come out a bit lately. And she likes Angela Rayner
David, 75, former Labour voter, voted Conservative in 2019, now ‘ if I do vote, it will be for Richard Tice because of the migrant crisis’.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 2, 2021 13:32:39 GMT
I'm sure many on the Labour left would also have quietly wanted Labour to lose Batley and Spen (to Galloway if not the Tories) , making it 2 spectacular losses in a row and the calls to resign would have come out then. Now after Chesham could it be 2 in a row for Johnson? The Tory party unlike Labour are quite adept at turfing out ailing leaders... not only Thatcher, never forget IDS... Do you think the Tories could lose this seat? The last time the Tories lost seats like this to Labour was in the dog days of the Major Parliament, so if they did it would be a sign of a change in opinion not yet seen in any poll. Lib Dems can get such swings more or less independent of polling, as we have seen this year and many times before |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 2, 2021 13:37:24 GMT
It's a measure of the long-lasting legacy of Spike Milligan and the Goon Show that any mention of Bexhill-on-Sea will still instantly prompt suggestions of batter-pudding hurling. And that is a very good thing. It does no such thing, instantly or otherwise. Nobody in the world has ever associated Bexhill-on-Sea with anything to do with batter pudding, hurled or otherwise, nor has had any reason to make any such association. It is the height of absurdity and illogicality to cite in evidence an episode of a radio programme which nobody has ever listened to, and which - if it ever existed in the first place, which I doubt - was, by definition, broadcast many years before anybody was born. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2021 13:52:38 GMT
According to a Times article on the by election today, ‘one local Tory source predicted that the majority would be between 7-8,000 but that it could go lower. As usual they managed to find a couple of voters. Freda, 73, used to vote Labour, but stopped under Corbyn because he was too left wing, but thinks that Starner doesn’t seem to have a lot of drive, but he’s come out a bit lately. And she likes Angela Rayner David, 75, former Labour voter, voted Conservative in 2019, now ‘ if I do vote, it will be for Richard Tice because of the migrant crisis’. So even in this seat they're managing to push a "Labour losing out to the populist right" narrative? Does anybody actually take these things seriously at this point? |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 2, 2021 13:54:32 GMT
It's a measure of the long-lasting legacy of Spike Milligan and the Goon Show that any mention of Bexhill-on-Sea will still instantly prompt suggestions of batter-pudding hurling. And that is a very good thing. It does no such thing, instantly or otherwise. Nobody in the world has ever associated Bexhill-on-Sea with anything to do with batter pudding, hurled or otherwise, nor has had any reason to make any such association. It is the height of absurdity and illogicality to cite in evidence an episode of a radio programme which nobody has ever listened to, and which - if it ever existed in the first place, which I doubt - was, by definition, broadcast many years before anybody was born. Do we live in a world where no-one was born before 1954 already? The Goon show has been widely recycled since and I have heard many episodes in my adult life en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dreaded_Batter_Pudding_Hurler_(of_Bexhill-on-Sea) |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 2, 2021 13:57:23 GMT
It does no such thing, instantly or otherwise. Nobody in the world has ever associated Bexhill-on-Sea with anything to do with batter pudding, hurled or otherwise, nor has had any reason to make any such association. It is the height of absurdity and illogicality to cite in evidence an episode of a radio programme which nobody has ever listened to, and which - if it ever existed in the first place, which I doubt - was, by definition, broadcast many years before anybody was born. Do we live in a world where no-one was born before 1954 already? The Goon show has been widely recycled since and I have heard many episodes in my adult life en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dreaded_Batter_Pudding_Hurler_(of_Bexhill-on-Sea)
My dad loved the Goons, so Ying Tang and pudding hurling are well known to me, if he hadn't, I may have not come across them, who knows.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 2, 2021 14:21:45 GMT
I was in the constituency yesterday and have never been to a by-election where there was less evidence of one taking place. Didn't see any posters or signs anywhere. Do you always visit constituencies when there is a by-election on? I've noticed you often comment about having been in the constituency on other by-election threads. I used to do this when they were fairly close by - I remember going to Greenwich and Kensington to 'observe' the by-elections there but can't remember visiting the scene of a by-election recently other than to campaign (most recently in Clacton and Rochester). I was in Hartlepool during the by-election campaign but my visit there was totally unrelated to that. I made the same observation there though - not a single poster anywhere (and bearing in mind this was the same day as the Tees Valley Mayor election, I didn't see any in the other parts of that region either) |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 2, 2021 14:54:33 GMT
I was in the constituency yesterday and have never been to a by-election where there was less evidence of one taking place. Didn't see any posters or signs anywhere. Do you always visit constituencies when there is a by-election on? I've noticed you often comment about having been in the constituency on other by-election threads. I used to do this when they were fairly close by - I remember going to Greenwich and Kensington to 'observe' the by-elections there but can't remember visiting the scene of a by-election recently other than to campaign (most recently in Clacton and Rochester). I was in Hartlepool during the by-election campaign but my visit there was totally unrelated to that. I made the same observation there though - not a single poster anywhere (and bearing in mind this was the same day as the Tees Valley Mayor election, I didn't see any in the other parts of that region either) I try to do so. This visit was interesting because I've never been to the area before. Just noticed on election maps that the north-western part of the seat is closer than I thought to Woolwich Arsenal. Only about 1.8 miles. |
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Post by matureleft on Dec 2, 2021 14:59:44 GMT
Posters on private property are rarer than they were when I started out in the 1970s. I have wondered about why. I think neighbourhoods are rather less seemingly homogenous than they were - where you felt almost all of your neighbours felt the same way. I think party alignment is weaker. I suspect family differences are more common (or more openly discussed). The 'I'm scared of someone breaking my window' element is often an excuse but can reflect anxiety about the lowering of tolerance, and that is real.
I would assume a comfortable Tory hold. This by-election is held in sad circumstances, to replace a well-respected member. The Tory candidate seems appropriate. There's no obvious local issue. The wider political context would suggest a modest decline in Tory support, probably mostly reflected in a poor turnout. The opposition parties have no constituency history of success, even at local government level.
Assuming a hold of any kind this result will rapidly be forgotten. It's a rarity that a failure to gain a seat has wider resonance. Arguably Roy Jenkins' not particularly close miss in Warrington in 1981 had some impact.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 2, 2021 15:12:03 GMT
It does feel like if the Conservatives had to choose one of their seats for a by election at the moment, Old Bexley and Sidcup would be towards the top of the list- 60+% leave and no Lib Dem base or history.
Had the ageing Edward Heath resigned or died in the 1992-97 parliament, presumably a BE here at that time would have resulted in a Labour gain , and if he had died or resigned in the 1997-2001 parliament, a by election here would have been an interesting battle.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 2, 2021 15:17:20 GMT
Posters on private property are rarer than they were when I started out in the 1970s. I have wondered about why. I think neighbourhoods are rather less seemingly homogenous than they were - where you felt almost all of your neighbours felt the same way. I think party alignment is weaker. I suspect family differences are more common (or more openly discussed). The 'I'm scared of someone breaking my window' element is often an excuse but can reflect anxiety about the lowering of tolerance, and that is real. I would assume a comfortable Tory hold. This by-election is held in sad circumstances, to replace a well-respected member. The Tory candidate seems appropriate. There's no obvious local issue. The wider political context would suggest a modest decline in Tory support, probably mostly reflected in a poor turnout. The opposition parties have no constituency history of success, even at local government level. Assuming a hold of any kind this result will rapidly be forgotten. It's a rarity that a failure to gain a seat has wider resonance. Arguably Roy Jenkins' not particularly close miss in Warrington in 1981 had some impact. I did not visit Chesham and Amersham, but Facebook suggests a large number of Lib Dem posters. That was all part of creating momentum in the campaign, and people were apparently very happy to join the winning team with a poster once they thought an upset was on the cards. My impression is that the Labour Party believe you win elections by "voter Id" these days, and that visible signs of support are not very important. |
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