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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 9, 2021 19:26:52 GMT
The constituency, ahem, trended heavily to the Tories in 2017 as well as 2019, but not really before then. Of course similarish things happened in similarish seats and the seat was also targetted by the Tories from 2017 on, but it does look like Skinner had a positive personal vote as late as 2015 but not thereafter.
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 9, 2021 20:15:29 GMT
If UKIP could defeat Reform (unlikely but not impossible in this seat) that could be Reform's equivalent of the SDP losing to the Monster Raving Loonies in Bootle. In May they did achieve that on the list vote in this constituency - Ukip 2.7% (5th best in London), RefUK 1.8% (4th best), Heritage 0.9% (1st best). However on the mayoral vote Reclaim got 3.3% (5th best) with Heritage (with Kurten as the candidate) taking 0.84% (1st best) and Ukip was not in their best five (so below 1.2%). Overall this looks like one of the places where the battle between Ukip and its breakaways is not settled - and Kurten complicates matters. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 9, 2021 20:35:09 GMT
With long serving MPs there's often a point where their personal effect switches to a negative "Gone on for too long". I'm not sure if/when this hit here. Is it possible that happened to Dennis Skinner to some extent? interesting that there are no independent candidates here? Nobody with a spare £500? Surely at a by election a few would spring up for their 30 seconds of fame? Independent candidates, aside from those with a strong local following, are getting rarer in by-elections, especially with more political parties to choose from than in the 1990s. |
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Post by mrsir on Nov 9, 2021 21:13:49 GMT
If UKIP could defeat Reform (unlikely but not impossible in this seat) that could be Reform's equivalent of the SDP losing to the Monster Raving Loonies in Bootle. I think UKIP would have probably achieved this if they had put up a candidate in Hartlepool. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 9, 2021 21:20:34 GMT
If UKIP could defeat Reform (unlikely but not impossible in this seat) that could be Reform's equivalent of the SDP losing to the Monster Raving Loonies in Bootle. In May they did achieve that on the list vote in this constituency - Ukip 2.7% (5th best in London), RefUK 1.8% (4th best), Heritage 0.9% (1st best). However on the mayoral vote Reclaim got 3.3% (5th best) with Heritage (with Kurten as the candidate) taking 0.84% (1st best) and Ukip was not in their best five (so below 1.2%). Overall this looks like one of the places where the battle between Ukip and its breakaways is not settled - and Kurten complicates matters. Kurten strikes me as a very odd figure. He is becoming a perennial candidate doing pathetically badly in every election he contests of late. |
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Post by samdwebber on Nov 9, 2021 21:54:33 GMT
Jonathan Rooks, the Green candidate, also contested the Bexley and Bromley London Assembly seat in 2012, when I was his Lib Dem opponent. He got 5.5% of the vote. A rundown of the candidates. Three of them were in adjacent positions in the same ward in 2018. Elaine Cheeseman - English Democrats. Contested here in 2010. Daniel Francis - Labour. Councillor in Belvedere ward in borough and in the Erith & Thamesmead constituency. Louie French - Conservative. Councillor in Falconwood & Welling ward in the constituency. Contested Eltham in 2019. Richard Hewison - Rejoin EU. Stood for Mayor of London and at the top of the party's London Assembly list in 2021. David Kurten - Heritage Party. Stood for Sidcup ward in 2018 (for Ukip) and for Mayor of London and at the top of the Heritage Party's London Assembly list in 2021. Also stood for Camberwell & Peckham in 2015, Castle Point in 2017, Lewisham East in 2018 by-election and Bognor Regis & Littlehampton in 2019 (all for Ukip). John Poynton - Ukip. Stood for Ealing Southall in 2015 & 2017 and was 7 on the party's London Assembly list in 2021. Simone Reynolds - Lib Dem. Stood here in 2019 & for Sidcup ward in 2018. Stood in Bexleyheath & Crayford in 2017. Jonathan Rooks - Green. Stood here in 2010 & for Sidcup ward in 2018. Stood for Longlands ward in 2021 by-election. Richard Tice - RefUK. Stood at top of the party's London Assembly list and for Havering & Redbridge Assembly constituency in 2021. Elected MEP for Eastern region in 2019 and stood for Hartlepool in 2019 (when the party was then called Brexit Party). Carol Margaret Valinejad - CPA. Stood here in 2019 and was fourth on the party's London Assembly list in 2021. Mad Mike Young - OMRLP. Stood in Sittingbourne & Sheppey 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019. Also stood for Sheppey division in 2017, Sheppey Central ward in 2019 and was 3 on the party list in South Wales East in the then Welsh Assembly in 2016. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 9, 2021 22:06:55 GMT
If UKIP could defeat Reform (unlikely but not impossible in this seat) that could be Reform's equivalent of the SDP losing to the Monster Raving Loonies in Bootle. In May they did achieve that on the list vote in this constituency - Ukip 2.7% (5th best in London), RefUK 1.8% (4th best), Heritage 0.9% (1st best). However on the mayoral vote Reclaim got 3.3% (5th best) with Heritage (with Kurten as the candidate) taking 0.84% (1st best) and Ukip was not in their best five (so below 1.2%). Overall this looks like one of the places where the battle between Ukip and its breakaways is not settled - and Kurten complicates matters. Could it be Kurtens for one of them? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 9, 2021 22:15:01 GMT
In May they did achieve that on the list vote in this constituency - Ukip 2.7% (5th best in London), RefUK 1.8% (4th best), Heritage 0.9% (1st best). However on the mayoral vote Reclaim got 3.3% (5th best) with Heritage (with Kurten as the candidate) taking 0.84% (1st best) and Ukip was not in their best five (so below 1.2%). Overall this looks like one of the places where the battle between Ukip and its breakaways is not settled - and Kurten complicates matters. Kurten strikes me as a very odd figure. He is becoming a perennial candidate doing pathetically badly in every election he contests of late. True but this is his heartland and IIRC he used to live here but now seems to have moved out to the coast. Perhaps he can clear up what the following means: "over the Gatling gun in the Bognor Saint Regis tea kettle. And then she shat on a turtle!" |
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 9, 2021 22:19:29 GMT
Jonathan Rooks, the Green candidate, also contested the Bexley and Bromley London Assembly seat in 2012, when I was his Lib Dem opponent. Added thanks. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 9, 2021 23:25:56 GMT
The constituency, ahem, trended heavily to the Tories in 2017 as well as 2019, but not really before then. Of course similarish things happened in similarish seats and the seat was also targetted by the Tories from 2017 on, but it does look like Skinner had a positive personal vote as late as 2015 but not thereafter. Which tracks with the point at which he pretty much disappeared from public consciousness as an active political figure. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Nov 10, 2021 0:03:02 GMT
Is it possible that happened to Dennis Skinner to some extent? It definitely did, though that was an extreme case as he went from being a high-profile backbencher constantly on the telly and also very active in his constituency to someone that a lot of people assumed had already retired. His doctors didn't even allow him to visit the constituency, let alone campaign, during that last, strange time he appeared on the ballot. I maintain that what happened to him constitutes elder abuse. Do you mean that in the sense he was pushed into standing in the election by others? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 10, 2021 0:53:49 GMT
The constituency, ahem, trended heavily to the Tories in 2017 as well as 2019, but not really before then. Of course similarish things happened in similarish seats and the seat was also targetted by the Tories from 2017 on, but it does look like Skinner had a positive personal vote as late as 2015 but not thereafter. Which tracks with the point at which he pretty much disappeared from public consciousness as an active political figure. Skinner was still active on the Labour benches post the 2017 election (and getting attacked as unprincipled by Corbynistas for... voting the same he has since 1970) and also looked pretty active at the 2018 conference: (The video won't play on other sites)(and here he was in the Commons in February 2019) |
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Post by southernliberal on Nov 10, 2021 10:20:24 GMT
A couple of quick searches on Twitter reveal no evidence of a Lib Dem campaign here at all. It's all Reform UK, Labour and Tories. So blue wall means the sorts of seats that the Lib Dems have picked up in by-elections since the early 1960s rather than the outer London commuter belt that the Tories took for granted. Obviously there is no agreed definition of what the current "blue wall" actually is because its just a term that's essentially been made up in the last year or so by my party, but for what it's worth if I was trying to define which seats fell into it: Currently Conservative held (Obviously) and in most cases has voted Conservative pretty consistently in recent general elections Voted Remain in 2016 Liberal Democrats finished second in 2019, with an increased share of the vote In the London commuter belt - with a not insignificant proportion of workers who commute into Central London or work from home on "London-based" jobs More affluent than the average constituency Greater educational obtainment than the average constituency For these six "blue-wall factors" or whatever you would like to call them, I can only see that OB&S would meet three or four of them (Con held, in London/commuter belt, affluent and maybe greater educational obtainment) |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Nov 10, 2021 10:33:32 GMT
So blue wall means the sorts of seats that the Lib Dems have picked up in by-elections since the early 1960s rather than the outer London commuter belt that the Tories took for granted. Obviously there is no agreed definition of what the current "blue wall" actually is because its just a term that's essentially been made up in the last year or so by my party, but for what it's worth if I was trying to define which seats fell into it: Currently Conservative held (Obviously) and in most cases has voted Conservative pretty consistently in recent general elections Voted Remain in 2016 Liberal Democrats finished second in 2019, with an increased share of the vote In the London commuter belt - with a not insignificant proportion of workers who commute into Central London or work from home on "London-based" jobs More affluent than the average constituency Greater educational obtainment than the average constituency For these six "blue-wall factors" or whatever you would like to call them, I can only see that OB&S would meet three or four of them (Con held, in London/commuter belt, affluent and maybe greater educational obtainment) Interesting. How many seats does that count. I would argue that for by-elections then the net (particularly for Lib Dems) needs to be drawn wider. So a seat that you wouldn't have a hope in a General election could often be a target in a by-election. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 10, 2021 10:47:46 GMT
So blue wall means the sorts of seats that the Lib Dems have picked up in by-elections since the early 1960s rather than the outer London commuter belt that the Tories took for granted. Obviously there is no agreed definition of what the current "blue wall" actually is because its just a term that's essentially been made up in the last year or so by my party, but for what it's worth if I was trying to define which seats fell into it: Currently Conservative held (Obviously) and in most cases has voted Conservative pretty consistently in recent general elections Voted Remain in 2016 Liberal Democrats finished second in 2019, with an increased share of the vote In the London commuter belt - with a not insignificant proportion of workers who commute into Central London or work from home on "London-based" jobs More affluent than the average constituency Greater educational obtainment than the average constituency For these six "blue-wall factors" or whatever you would like to call them, I can only see that OB&S would meet three or four of them (Con held, in London/commuter belt, affluent and maybe greater educational obtainment) We did not coin the term "blue wall", although we may have given it salience. I quote the person to whom the term is attributed up thread. Just as Leave voting is an essential feature of the "red wall" so Remain voting is an essential characteristic of the blue equivalent.. |
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Post by southernliberal on Nov 10, 2021 11:02:56 GMT
Obviously there is no agreed definition of what the current "blue wall" actually is because its just a term that's essentially been made up in the last year or so by my party, but for what it's worth if I was trying to define which seats fell into it: Currently Conservative held (Obviously) and in most cases has voted Conservative pretty consistently in recent general elections Voted Remain in 2016 Liberal Democrats finished second in 2019, with an increased share of the vote In the London commuter belt - with a not insignificant proportion of workers who commute into Central London or work from home on "London-based" jobs More affluent than the average constituency Greater educational obtainment than the average constituency For these six "blue-wall factors" or whatever you would like to call them, I can only see that OB&S would meet three or four of them (Con held, in London/commuter belt, affluent and maybe greater educational obtainment) Interesting. How many seats does that count. I would argue that for by-elections then the net (particularly for Lib Dems) needs to be drawn wider. So a seat that you wouldn't have a hope in a General election could often be a target in a by-election. I agree entirely - Chesham & Amersham for example would have been a seat we'd have had no hope in a general election despite being "blue wall" but obviously won in the by-election. That doesn't mean that every single by-election falls into the category however. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Nov 10, 2021 11:09:02 GMT
Interesting. How many seats does that count. I would argue that for by-elections then the net (particularly for Lib Dems) needs to be drawn wider. So a seat that you wouldn't have a hope in a General election could often be a target in a by-election. I agree entirely - Chesham & Amersham for example would have been a seat we'd have had no hope in a general election despite being "blue wall" but obviously won in the by-election. That doesn't mean that every single by-election falls into the category however. But if Chesham and Amersham is only somewhere Lib Dems could win in a by-election, then the blue wall is meaningless. Losing by-elections is an irritation with an 80 seat majority. The threat has to be at General Elections for it to be meaningful at all. |
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Post by southernliberal on Nov 10, 2021 11:14:44 GMT
I agree entirely - Chesham & Amersham for example would have been a seat we'd have had no hope in a general election despite being "blue wall" but obviously won in the by-election. That doesn't mean that every single by-election falls into the category however. But if Chesham and Amersham is only somewhere Lib Dems could win in a by-election, then the blue wall is meaningless. Losing by-elections is an irritation with an 80 seat majority. The threat has to be at General Elections for it to be meaningful at all. Realistically, the Liberal Democrats will be trying to win a total of no more than 30 - 40 seats at the next general election (including held seats) - note that some of these seats we'll be trying to win aren't blue wall (e.g. Scottish held seats, Cheadle and Hazel Grove in the North West etc) - I'd agree the term "blue wall" is relatively meaningless, its just a term used to describe a number of seats that are broadly similar and which the Liberal Democrats do have a better chance it (although noting that better chance doesn't neccearily mean we're going to be spreading ourselves out and trying to win every single one at the next general election) |
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Post by southernliberal on Nov 10, 2021 11:17:23 GMT
I think the key difference is that you seem to think that every single "blue wall" seat is vulnerable or needs to be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats at the next general election which simply wont be the case when the biggest mistake the party made in 2019 was spreading themselves too thinly and targeting too many seats.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 10, 2021 11:26:36 GMT
I think you would need a significantly less elderly seat, given how much more common attending university is amongst younger generations. Certainly if you look at the 2011 census statistics on Boundary Assistant then Christchurch doesn't look particularly graduate-heavy.
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