|
|
Post by markgoodair on Nov 8, 2021 14:11:44 GMT
William Hill are offering the following odds
Conservative 1/12
Labour 8/1
Lib Dems 14/1
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,812
|
Post by right on Nov 8, 2021 14:19:02 GMT
A couple of quick searches on Twitter reveal no evidence of a Lib Dem campaign here at all. It's all Reform UK, Labour and Tories. So blue wall means the sorts of seats that the Lib Dems have picked up in by-elections since the early 1960s rather than the outer London commuter belt that the Tories took for granted. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
|
Post by johng on Nov 8, 2021 14:45:11 GMT
A couple of quick searches on Twitter reveal no evidence of a Lib Dem campaign here at all. It's all Reform UK, Labour and Tories. So blue wall means the sorts of seats that the Lib Dems have picked up in by-elections since the early 1960s rather than the outer London commuter belt that the Tories took for granted. Blue wall and red wall are made-up terms which seem to mean whatever someone wants them to mean. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 8, 2021 14:52:48 GMT
A couple of quick searches on Twitter reveal no evidence of a Lib Dem campaign here at all. It's all Reform UK, Labour and Tories. So blue wall means the sorts of seats that the Lib Dems have picked up in by-elections since the early 1960s rather than the outer London commuter belt that the Tories took for granted. (sigh) what the blue wall is from the horse's mouth: strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/the-blue-wallOthers have extended this definition, but no-one but you includes Old Bexley and Sidcup in it |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,812
|
Post by right on Nov 8, 2021 15:59:39 GMT
So blue wall means the sorts of seats that the Lib Dems have picked up in by-elections since the early 1960s rather than the outer London commuter belt that the Tories took for granted. Blue wall and red wall are made-up terms which seem to mean whatever someone wants them to mean. Thank you. That's been the whole point. |
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 8, 2021 16:11:53 GMT
Took Richard's nomination forms in this afternoon and they were accepted, so now I can just concentrate on canvassing.
|
|
Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
|
Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 8, 2021 16:17:11 GMT
A couple of quick searches on Twitter reveal no evidence of a Lib Dem campaign here at all. It's all Reform UK, Labour and Tories. Lib Dems clearly putting their primary emphasis on North Shropshire. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Nov 8, 2021 16:19:42 GMT
Took Richard's nomination forms in this afternoon and they were accepted, so now I can just concentrate on canvassing. How long did they take to accept them? |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2021 23:16:07 GMT
So blue wall means the sorts of seats that the Lib Dems have picked up in by-elections since the early 1960s rather than the outer London commuter belt that the Tories took for granted. Blue wall and red wall are made-up terms which seem to mean whatever someone wants them to mean. All Terms are made up by their very nature. People use all terms to mean what they want them to mean. So what's new? |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Nov 9, 2021 0:10:39 GMT
Blue wall and red wall are made-up terms which seem to mean whatever someone wants them to mean. All Terms are made up by their very nature. People use all terms to mean what they want them to mean. So what's new? Of course, but there are a few differences.
First is that these are very new terms. The red wall being referred to only came about not long before the 2019 election. The blue wall being referred to came even later and I only saw popular discussion on it around and since the C&A by-election. Both, no doubt, influenced by our good friends across the pond with Hilary's 2016 'blue wall'.
Second is that certain writers use them as absolute concrete terms when they are no such thing.
Of course we are all guilty of the latter at times. I am sure I have used these terms in the way I envisage they should be used. To my mind these terms have an ancestral basis. No seat that voted Thatcher could ever be described as 'red wall' just as no seat that voted Blair could be 'blue wall'. Others clearly have radically different views.
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 9, 2021 0:59:15 GMT
The Wall chat does feel like an Americanism but that's nothing new, in general life as well as politics!
|
|
|
|
Post by Alun Elder-Brown Esq on Nov 9, 2021 15:53:51 GMT
John Poynton is the UKIP candidate for Old Bexley and Sidcup
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Nov 9, 2021 16:05:20 GMT
Last seen losing the Ukip leadership election to Neil Hamilton.
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Nov 9, 2021 16:51:20 GMT
Any sign of the SOPN yet? Bexley has a rather poorly laid out website.
|
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Nov 9, 2021 17:33:58 GMT
If UKIP could defeat Reform (unlikely but not impossible in this seat) that could be Reform's equivalent of the SDP losing to the Monster Raving Loonies in Bootle.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,914
|
Post by YL on Nov 9, 2021 18:21:32 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by November_Rain on Nov 9, 2021 18:43:48 GMT
That's quite a lot of candidates - not as many as Hartlepool and Batley and Spen.
The Tories probably will hold albeit with a reduced majority but Labour will give it a go and Reform UK are a safe bet for bronze imo.
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Nov 9, 2021 18:45:52 GMT
A rundown of the candidates. Three of them were in adjacent positions in the same ward in 2018.
Elaine Cheeseman - English Democrats. Contested here in 2010.
Daniel Francis - Labour. Councillor in Belvedere ward in borough and in the Erith & Thamesmead constituency.
Louie French - Conservative. Councillor in Falconwood & Welling ward in the constituency. Contested Eltham in 2019.
Richard Hewison - Rejoin EU. Stood for Mayor of London and at the top of the party's London Assembly list in 2021.
David Kurten - Heritage Party. Stood for Sidcup ward in 2018 (for Ukip) and for Mayor of London and at the top of the Heritage Party's London Assembly list in 2021. Also stood for Camberwell & Peckham in 2015, Castle Point in 2017, Lewisham East in 2018 by-election and Bognor Regis & Littlehampton in 2019 and was elected on the London Assembly list in 2016 (all for Ukip).
John Poynton - Ukip. Stood for Ealing Southall in 2015 & 2017 and was 7 on the party's London Assembly list in 2021.
Simone Reynolds - Lib Dem. Stood here in 2019 & for Sidcup ward in 2018. Stood in Bexleyheath & Crayford in 2017.
Jonathan Rooks - Green. Stood here in 2010, for Bexley & Bromley Assembly constituency in 2012 and for Sidcup ward in 2018. Stood for Longlands ward in 2021 by-election.
Richard Tice - RefUK. Stood at top of the party's London Assembly list and for Havering & Redbridge Assembly constituency in 2021. Elected MEP for Eastern region in 2019 and stood for Hartlepool in 2019 (when the party was then called Brexit Party).
Carol Margaret Valinejad - CPA. Stood here in 2019 and was fourth on the party's London Assembly list in 2021.
Mad Mike Young - OMRLP. Stood in Sittingbourne & Sheppey 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019. Also stood for Sheppey division in 2017, Sheppey Central ward in 2019 and was 3 on the party list in South Wales East in the then Welsh Assembly in 2016.
|
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 9, 2021 19:02:40 GMT
With long serving MPs there's often a point where their personal effect switches to a negative "Gone on for too long". I'm not sure if/when this hit here. Is it possible that happened to Dennis Skinner to some extent? interesting that there are no independent candidates here? Nobody with a spare £500? Surely at a by election a few would spring up for their 30 seconds of fame? |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
|
Post by Sibboleth on Nov 9, 2021 19:06:13 GMT
Is it possible that happened to Dennis Skinner to some extent? It definitely did, though that was an extreme case as he went from being a high-profile backbencher constantly on the telly and also very active in his constituency to someone that a lot of people assumed had already retired. His doctors didn't even allow him to visit the constituency, let alone campaign, during that last, strange time he appeared on the ballot. I maintain that what happened to him constitutes elder abuse. |
|
