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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2021 11:29:17 GMT
It should be remembered that to some extent the education divide us a consequence of the age divide, ie that the younger voters who are voting Labour are more likely to have also gone to university than the older voters who are voting Tory, simply because more people are going to uni.
It is not really that education differences *cause* people to vote differently but more that they correlate with a far more important divide
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 10, 2021 11:54:52 GMT
A necessary condition for a seat to be "Blue Wall" would probably be higher than average number of graduates. Incidentally that makes me wonder which seat that voted Leave had the highest percentage of graduates. Maybe somewhere like Christchurch which is both elderly and well-off. It's probably a lower Leave percentage than is obvious and is closer to the 50/50 split. Orpington and Sevenoaks could be up there. And maybe Solihull, Sutton Coldfield, Warrington South, Bromsgrove, Stratford-on-Avon, Hazel Grove... Places of that ilk. Interesting question though. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 10, 2021 12:09:08 GMT
A necessary condition for a seat to be "Blue Wall" would probably be higher than average number of graduates. Incidentally that makes me wonder which seat that voted Leave had the highest percentage of graduates. Maybe somewhere like Christchurch which is both elderly and well-off. It's probably a lower Leave percentage than is obvious and is closer to the 50/50 split. Orpington and Sevenoaks could be up there. And maybe Solihull, Sutton Coldfield, Warrington South, Bromsgrove, Stratford-on-Avon, Hazel Grove... Places of that ilk. Interesting question though. Possibly Stone? Around 58% Leave, with 30% of residents being graduates (average is 27%). |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 10, 2021 12:12:17 GMT
It should be remembered that to some extent the education divide us a consequence of the age divide, ie that the younger voters who are voting Labour are more likely to have also gone to university than the older voters who are voting Tory, simply because more people are going to uni. It is not really that education differences *cause* people to vote differently but more that they correlate with a far more important divide Its was a few years ago now, but when I was at university it was surprising how much of the academic literature found a large education divide across many European countries that nonetheless was overwhelmingly correlation rather than causation if they tested it. Similarly, when other studies narrowed it down to the act of attending university, people's political attitudes changed very little at all (slightly more socially liberal), it was simply that left-liberal people were much more likely to attend university. This is particularly true in the UK given the very large age divide between Labour and Conservative voters. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 10, 2021 12:44:23 GMT
One has to bear in mind that the referendum wasn't counted by constituency so estimates are required in most cases. However there are a reasonable number (but scarcely a "wall"!) of currently Tory seats that could fit parts of the bill. In declining order of estimated Remain vote where the margin was reasonably clear.
Cities of London and Westminster
Chelsea and Fulham
Wimbledon
Finchley and Golders Green
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire
Altrincham and Sale West
Winchester
Hitchin and Harpenden
South West Surrey
Chipping Barnet
Guildford
Rushcliffe
Esher and Walton
Hendon
Cheltenham
Woking
Tunbridge Wells
Maidenhead
(Chesham and Amersham)
South East Cambridgeshire
But the Lib Dems aren't always the challenger, the salience of a vote cast long ago is questionable, the broader context is unknown...
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Post by justin124 on Nov 10, 2021 12:54:40 GMT
One has to bear in mind that the referendum wasn't counted by constituency so estimates are required in most cases. However there are a reasonable number (but scarcely a "wall"!) of currently Tory seats that could fit parts of the bill. In declining order of estimated Remain vote where the margin was reasonably clear. Cities of London and Westminster Chelsea and Fulham Wimbledon Finchley and Golders Green Kensington South Cambridgeshire Altrincham and Sale West Winchester Hitchin and Harpenden South West Surrey Chipping Barnet Guildford Rushcliffe Esher and Walton Hendon Cheltenham Woking Tunbridge Wells Maidenhead (Chesham and Amersham) South East Cambridgeshire But the Lib Dems aren't always the challenger, the salience of a vote cast long ago is questionable, the broader context is unknown... Labour is likely to recover its position as the main anti-Tory challenger next time in seats such as Finchley & Golders Green and Cities of London & Westminster. Wimbledon could end up as a three - way contest. |
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 10, 2021 13:03:23 GMT
One has to bear in mind that the referendum wasn't counted by constituency so estimates are required in most cases. However there are a reasonable number (but scarcely a "wall"!) of currently Tory seats that could fit parts of the bill. In declining order of estimated Remain vote where the margin was reasonably clear. Cities of London and Westminster Chelsea and Fulham Wimbledon Finchley and Golders Green Kensington South Cambridgeshire Altrincham and Sale West Winchester Hitchin and Harpenden South West Surrey Chipping Barnet Guildford Rushcliffe Esher and Walton Hendon Cheltenham Woking Tunbridge Wells Maidenhead (Chesham and Amersham) South East Cambridgeshire But the Lib Dems aren't always the challenger, the salience of a vote cast long ago is questionable, the broader context is unknown... That's basically their 2019 target list. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 10, 2021 13:21:47 GMT
One has to bear in mind that the referendum wasn't counted by constituency so estimates are required in most cases. However there are a reasonable number (but scarcely a "wall"!) of currently Tory seats that could fit parts of the bill. In declining order of estimated Remain vote where the margin was reasonably clear. Cities of London and Westminster Chelsea and Fulham Wimbledon Finchley and Golders Green Kensington South Cambridgeshire Altrincham and Sale West Winchester Hitchin and Harpenden South West Surrey Chipping Barnet Guildford Rushcliffe Esher and Walton Hendon Cheltenham Woking Tunbridge Wells Maidenhead (Chesham and Amersham) South East Cambridgeshire But the Lib Dems aren't always the challenger, the salience of a vote cast long ago is questionable, the broader context is unknown... That's basically their 2019 target list. Indeed. Confusion over which party was the real challenger (not helped by the Lib Dems fielding high profile candidates in some less promising seats on the list like Kensington), the anxiety that a fair proportion of Tory Remain voters had at the prospect of a Labour government and a lacklustre Lib Dem campaign nationally secured Tory success in each case. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 10, 2021 13:52:42 GMT
It should be remembered that to some extent the education divide us a consequence of the age divide, ie that the younger voters who are voting Labour are more likely to have also gone to university than the older voters who are voting Tory, simply because more people are going to uni. It is not really that education differences *cause* people to vote differently but more that they correlate with a far more important divide There was a study that I lost track of that indicated that Remain was ahead amongst university educated voters in every generation. It was a somewhat complex analysis, but it ought to be possible to extract more direct data from the British Election Study. University tends to establish life long friendship groups. Such groups tend to be self reinforcing particularly in terms of social values. We know that as people become older they become more Tory as personal wealth increases in salience, but social values do not change so easily and positive attitudes towards sharing sovereignty seem to go with that. It is not education but peer group that influences people most. |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 10, 2021 14:29:10 GMT
That's basically their 2019 target list. Indeed. Confusion over which party was the real challenger (not helped by the Lib Dems fielding high profile candidates in some less promising seats on the list like Kensington), the anxiety that a fair proportion of Tory Remain voters had at the prospect of a Labour government and a lacklustre Lib Dem campaign nationally secured Tory success in each case. How lacklustre was the Lib Dem campaign really? It was certainly poorly targeted and they played the expectations game very poorly, but they got a big increase in their vote. So what metric do we measure "lacklustre" apart from that they underperformed expectations? |
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 10, 2021 14:30:49 GMT
It should be remembered that to some extent the education divide us a consequence of the age divide, ie that the younger voters who are voting Labour are more likely to have also gone to university than the older voters who are voting Tory, simply because more people are going to uni. It is not really that education differences *cause* people to vote differently but more that they correlate with a far more important divide There was a study that I lost track of that indicated that Remain was ahead amongst university educated voters in every generation. It was a somewhat complex analysis, but it ought to be possible to extract more direct data from the British Election Study. I’m sure I saw a study that showed this, and quite clearly too, but hadn’t posted because I was trying to track it down. Party voting is rather more complex though. |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 10, 2021 14:33:13 GMT
It should be remembered that to some extent the education divide us a consequence of the age divide, ie that the younger voters who are voting Labour are more likely to have also gone to university than the older voters who are voting Tory, simply because more people are going to uni. It is not really that education differences *cause* people to vote differently but more that they correlate with a far more important divide There was a study that I lost track of that indicated that Remain was ahead amongst university educated voters in every generation. It was a somewhat complex analysis, but it ought to be possible to extract more direct data from the British Election Study. University tends to establish life long friendship groups. Such groups tend to be self reinforcing particularly in terms of social values. We know that as people become older they become more Tory as personal wealth increases in salience, but social values do not change so easily and positive attitudes towards sharing sovereignty seem to go with that. It is not education but peer group that influences people most. We've also got to remember that the more well off voted Remain and the less well off voted Leave. So in the older cohort then although they were in a more Leave voting group, as there were fewer graduates there is a bigger wealth gap between those with a degree in their 70s and those without, compared to those with a degree in their 30s and those without. I wouldn't be surprised if education was a factor - among the prosperous the self made seemed much more likely to vote Leave than the upper salariat up and down the age range - but it's tied up with so much. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 10, 2021 14:56:37 GMT
Indeed. Confusion over which party was the real challenger (not helped by the Lib Dems fielding high profile candidates in some less promising seats on the list like Kensington), the anxiety that a fair proportion of Tory Remain voters had at the prospect of a Labour government and a lacklustre Lib Dem campaign nationally secured Tory success in each case. How lacklustre was the Lib Dem campaign really? It was certainly poorly targeted and they played the expectations game very poorly, but they got a big increase in their vote. So what metric do we measure "lacklustre" apart from that they underperformed expectations? At the very least, that sizeable increase in vote share resulting in a net zero gain of MPs suggests incredibly poor targeting. Going off on wild goose chases across the country (often carried away by European elections hype) whilst failing to ensure that (eg) Carshalton and Hallam were nailed down. (and we won't even mention the seat of the then leader - and imminent PM, we were told) |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 10, 2021 14:56:50 GMT
Indeed. Confusion over which party was the real challenger (not helped by the Lib Dems fielding high profile candidates in some less promising seats on the list like Kensington), the anxiety that a fair proportion of Tory Remain voters had at the prospect of a Labour government and a lacklustre Lib Dem campaign nationally secured Tory success in each case. How lacklustre was the Lib Dem campaign really? It was certainly poorly targeted and they played the expectations game very poorly, but they got a big increase in their vote. So what metric do we measure "lacklustre" apart from that they underperformed expectations? I think you have covered most of the ground there: 1. They started the campaign with polls showing them just short of 20%. This was nearly halved through the campaign, this in spite of their having a crippled left-of-centre opposition and pretty close alignment on the core campaign issue with the sentiments of a substantial part of the electorate. 2. They swallowed many of the Change UK MPs, a seeming advantage, but then utilised them poorly. 3. By taking an extreme Brexit position they traded enthusiasm from the strong Remainers for alienation in historical Liberal areas where that played ill. A more nuanced policy would probably have served them better. 4. They gambled on a performance akin to that in the European elections with potential gains almost anywhere. 5. And the campaign attracted little interest. Their focus on the one issue left them short of coverage, something they desperately need in any campaign with their smaller core and lighter infrastructure compared to the other parties. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 10, 2021 15:29:18 GMT
There was a study that I lost track of that indicated that Remain was ahead amongst university educated voters in every generation. It was a somewhat complex analysis, but it ought to be possible to extract more direct data from the British Election Study. University tends to establish life long friendship groups. Such groups tend to be self reinforcing particularly in terms of social values. We know that as people become older they become more Tory as personal wealth increases in salience, but social values do not change so easily and positive attitudes towards sharing sovereignty seem to go with that. It is not education but peer group that influences people most. We've also got to remember that the more well off voted Remain and the less well off voted Leave. So in the older cohort then although they were in a more Leave voting group, as there were fewer graduates there is a bigger wealth gap between those with a degree in their 70s and those without, compared to those with a degree in their 30s and those without. I wouldn't be surprised if education was a factor - among the prosperous the self made seemed much more likely to vote Leave than the upper salariat up and down the age range - but it's tied up with so much. Yes, so many things do correlate with education that are not necessarily caused by education, including career income.. However it would be amazing if attending university for 3 or 4 years were not a formative experience for alot of people. Especially the middle class who tend to go away for university and therefore escape from the parental home for the first time. |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 10, 2021 15:33:35 GMT
How lacklustre was the Lib Dem campaign really? It was certainly poorly targeted and they played the expectations game very poorly, but they got a big increase in their vote. So what metric do we measure "lacklustre" apart from that they underperformed expectations? I think you have covered most of the ground there: 1. They started the campaign with polls showing them just short of 20%. This was nearly halved through the campaign, this in spite of their having a crippled left-of-centre opposition and pretty close alignment on the core campaign issue with the sentiments of a substantial part of the electorate. 2. They swallowed many of the Change UK MPs, a seeming advantage, but then utilised them poorly. 3. By taking an extreme Brexit position they traded enthusiasm from the strong Remainers for alienation in historical Liberal areas where that played ill. A more nuanced policy would probably have served them better. 4. They gambled on a performance akin to that in the European elections with potential gains almost anywhere. 5. And the campaign attracted little interest. Their focus on the one issue left them short of coverage, something they desperately need in any campaign with their smaller core and lighter infrastructure compared to the other parties. Losing vote share is damning, but when was the last election when they gained vote share during the campaign? There must be an allowable loss of vote share before we say it's a poor campaign. However halving the vote share doesn't look good. From my perspective in a Tory\Labour marginal we saw quite a few loyal Tory voters, sometimes lifetime voters, go Lib Dem. To no affect admittedly, but I was expecting to see a clutch of surprising "blue wall" Lib Dem gains being one of the secondary stories of the night. |
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Post by southernliberal on Nov 10, 2021 15:40:06 GMT
I think you have covered most of the ground there: 1. They started the campaign with polls showing them just short of 20%. This was nearly halved through the campaign, this in spite of their having a crippled left-of-centre opposition and pretty close alignment on the core campaign issue with the sentiments of a substantial part of the electorate. 2. They swallowed many of the Change UK MPs, a seeming advantage, but then utilised them poorly. 3. By taking an extreme Brexit position they traded enthusiasm from the strong Remainers for alienation in historical Liberal areas where that played ill. A more nuanced policy would probably have served them better. 4. They gambled on a performance akin to that in the European elections with potential gains almost anywhere. 5. And the campaign attracted little interest. Their focus on the one issue left them short of coverage, something they desperately need in any campaign with their smaller core and lighter infrastructure compared to the other parties. Losing vote share is damning, but when was the last election when they gained vote share during the campaign? There must be an allowable loss of vote share before we say it's a poor campaign. However halving the vote share doesn't look good. From my perspective in a Tory\Labour marginal we saw quite a few loyal Tory voters, sometimes lifetime voters, go Lib Dem. To no affect admittedly, but I was expecting to see a clutch of surprising "blue wall" Lib Dem gains being one of the secondary stories of the night. 2015 the party didn't lose any vote share during the campaign but also didn't gain anything. 2010 is the last time the party actually gained vote share during the campaign. 2017 and 2019 both involved losing vote share during the campaign. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 10, 2021 15:56:31 GMT
It should be remembered that to some extent the education divide us a consequence of the age divide, ie that the younger voters who are voting Labour are more likely to have also gone to university than the older voters who are voting Tory, simply because more people are going to uni. It is not really that education differences *cause* people to vote differently but more that they correlate with a far more important divide There were some MORI numbers which I put in this post which suggested that it was a bit of both: age is certainly important and is correlated with education but that even within age groups people with degrees do seem to be less Tory than those without. |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 10, 2021 16:01:42 GMT
Losing vote share is damning, but when was the last election when they gained vote share during the campaign? There must be an allowable loss of vote share before we say it's a poor campaign. However halving the vote share doesn't look good. From my perspective in a Tory\Labour marginal we saw quite a few loyal Tory voters, sometimes lifetime voters, go Lib Dem. To no affect admittedly, but I was expecting to see a clutch of surprising "blue wall" Lib Dem gains being one of the secondary stories of the night. 2015 the party didn't lose any vote share during the campaign but also didn't gain anything. 2010 is the last time the party actually gained vote share during the campaign. 2017 and 2019 both involved losing vote share during the campaign. I didn't realise vote share was gained in 2010. The focus tended to be on the juxtaposition between Cleggmania and the Lib Dems losing votes and seats compared to 2005. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 10, 2021 16:10:56 GMT
2015 the party didn't lose any vote share during the campaign but also didn't gain anything. 2010 is the last time the party actually gained vote share during the campaign. 2017 and 2019 both involved losing vote share during the campaign. I didn't realise vote share was gained in 2010. The focus tended to be on the juxtaposition between Cleggmania and the Lib Dems losing votes and seats compared to 2005. That's FPTP for you. We gained share (and votes, contrary to what you suggest) compared with 2005, but so did the Tories, and in some places their gains cancelled ours out. |
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