Local Council by-elections 7th October 2021

[Tony Otim]

FLINTSHIRE UA; Penyfford (New Ind resigned)
Candidates:
IBBOTSON, Alasdair James Fraser (Labour)
RANSOME, Pat (Independent)
SAXON, Steve (Independent)
WAKELAM, Roy Alan (Independent)

2017: Lab & Ind unopp.
2012: Lab 812; Ind 563, 362
2008: Lab 630; Ind 629, 622
2004: Ind 694; Lab 693, 446

Current Council: Lab 34; Ind All 16; Con 6; LD 6; Ind 3; New Ind 3; Non-aligned 1; 1 vacancy



NOTTINGHAM UA; St Anns (Labour resigned)
Candidates:
CHADWICK, Florence Sophia (TUSC)
COULSON, Barbara Joy (Green)
HOUSLEY, James (Liberal Democrat)
JENKINS, Corall Joy (Labour)
LARI, Francesco (Nottingham Independents)
TRAN, Ngoc Thanh (Conservative)

2019: Lab 1990, 1990, 1838; Con 335, 329, 252; LD 322

James Housley was the Lib Dem candidate in 2019.



NOTTINGHAM UA; Sherwood (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BARRATT, Colin Leslie Allen (Nottingham Independents)
PATEL, Nayab Abdul Hamid (Labour)
PRYOR, Alfred Stephen (Conservative)
ROUSE, Alison (Liberal Democrat)
SIBERT, Catriona Helen Kate (Green)
THOMAS, Geraint (TUSC)

2019: Lab 2773, 2715, 2634; Con 599, 556, 481; LD 529, 490, 406; UKIP 372, 365, 357

Current Council: Lab 48; Ind 3; Con 2; 2 vacancies



RUSHCLIFFE DC; Musters (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
CHAPLAIN, Julie Elizabeth (Labour)
COE, Paul Frederick (Conservative)
PRICE, Vicky (Liberal Democrat)

2019: LD 917, 873; Con 379, 311; Lab 320, 278
2015: LD 1209, 1158; Con 814, 723; Lab 596, 586

Julie Chaplain (Lab) was Labour candidate for West Bridgford West division, which contains part of this ward, in May. Vicky Price (Lib Dem) stood in West Bridgford North which does not overlap this ward

Current Council: Con 29; Lab 7; Ind 3; Grn 2; LD 2; 1 vacancy



SOMERSET CC; Comeytrowe and Trull (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
HARMON, Ruth (Conservative)
JOHNSON, Dawn Elaine (Liberal Democrat)
McGUFFIE, Michael Charles (Labour)

2017: LD 1790; Con 1496; Lab 219; Grn 132; UKIP 128
2013: LD 1498; Con 1164; UKIP 713; Lab 243; Grn 139

Dawn Johnson (Lib Dem) won the by-election this May for the Somerset West & Taunton district ward of Trull, Pitminster & Corfe, which is partially in this division.

Current Council: Con 33; LD 13; Lab 3; Grn 2; Ind 2; No affiliation 1; 1 vacancy



SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; Wilton & Sherford (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
DEAKIN, Tom (Liberal Democrat)
HARMON, Ruth (Conservative)
HICKS, Fran (Green)

2019: LD 692; Con 320

Current Council: LD 29; Ind 13; Con 10; Lab 3; Grn 2; Non aligned 1; 1 vacancy
(meaning the Lib Dems need to hold this to regain their majority on the council)



WAVERLEY DC: Cranleigh East (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BURBRIDGE, Rosemary Brenda (Conservative)
TOWNSEND, Philip (Liberal Democrat)

2019: LD 779, 702, 664; Con 678, 648, 610; Lab 280
2015: Con 1652, 1600, 1570; LD 901, 879, 831; Ind 600; Lab 509, 490
2011: Con 1219, 1201, 970; LD 850, 804, 745; Lab 394, 387
2007: LD 1237, 1173, 1170; Con 1121, 1093, 1031
Jul 04by: LD 936; Con 855; Lab 156 (LD gain from Con)
2003: LD 1029, 975, 884; Con 915, 836, 803; Lab 228, 210, 189

I don’t know if they are related, but I would guess they might be – Liz Townsend is the Lib Dem councillor for Cranleigh & Ewhurst division on Surrey County Council since this May.

Current Council: Con 21; Farnham Res 15; LD 14; Grn 2; Lab 2; Ind 2; 1 vacancy

[Tony Otim]

I can't find the Flintshire SOPN yet, so will update once it has been published.

EDIT: Now updated.

[andrewp]

I live in the Somerset West and Taunton ward and the Somerset electoral division. No leaflets as yet , but a handful of Lib Dem stake boards have appeared this weekend.

I wonder if there’s an arrangement between Labour and the Greens to stand in one of the contests each. Otherwise I’m surprised why the Greens aren’t standing in the County election aswell.

I know of both the Lib Dem and Conservative candidates through some COVID volunteering that I did and through a community Facebook group that I administer.

[evergreenadam]

The Flintshire results were so close in 2004 and 2008!

[Terry Weldon]

Cranleigh falls within my LD local party, and I can confirm that Philip Townsend is indeed Liz Townsend's husband. I'm told that he is also a "well-known community activist in his own right".

[Tony Otim]

OP updated with the 2 contests in Nottingham

[shadsy]

Smarkets have a market this week for the exciting showdown in......Cranleigh East.
smarkets.com/event/42406540/politics/uk/local-government/cranleigh-east-by-election

[Terry Weldon]

Oct 4, 2021 13:41:57 GMT shadsy said:

Smarkets have a market this week for the exciting showdown in......Cranleigh East.
smarkets.com/event/42406540/politics/uk/local-government/cranleigh-east-by-election

Interesting. 

I can confirm that both parties have put some decent effort into this campaign, with leaflets and canvassing, but not super-intensive.
(I've been there a few times myself, know what our side have done, and have seen/heard reports of Conservative activity.

I'll be at the count Thursday night - not officially for this, but as a councillor, to observe the Haslemere NP referendum count. Both counts will be at the same venue.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

FLINTSHIRE UA; Penyfford

All 3 Independents are on the community council, Ransome and Saxon as Independents but Wakelam, co-opted and vice-chair as Labour, but standing against Labour here.

[minionofmidas]

Oct 5, 2021 14:27:18 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

FLINTSHIRE UA; Penyfford

All 3 Independents are on the community council, Ransome and Saxon as Independents but Wakelam, co-opted and vice-chair as Labour, but standing against Labour here.

lol. Sounds like a very functional council, party, and by-election.

[listener]

There is a governance referendum tomorrow in the financially challenged London Borough of Croydon

www.croydon.gov.uk/council-and-elections/voting-and-elections/governance-referendum-7-october-2021

[johnloony]

Oct 6, 2021 16:12:12 GMT listener said:

There is a governance referendum tomorrow in the financially challenged London Borough of Croydon

www.croydon.gov.uk/council-and-elections/voting-and-elections/governance-referendum-7-october-2021

I've been officially observing the staff processing the incoming postal votes for the last week and a half, so obviously I'm not allowed to give any clues or make any predictions about what the result might be.

[listener]

insidecroydon.com/2021/10/04/has-labour-already-lined-up-its-candidate-for-elected-mayor/

[andrewp]

I have just been to vote in the 2 Somerset by elections. Conservative and Lib Dem tellers having a nice chat in the sun outside. I asked the poll clerk if it had been quiet, and she said very quiet. As one who often is a presiding officer, even a relatively high local election turnout can feel ‘quiet’.

[timmullen1]

Here are Andrew’s Previews for this week:

www.britainelects.com/2021/10/07/previewing-the-six-council-by-elections-of-07-oct-2021/

[johnloony]

Turnout in the two polling stations near to me up to 4pm today was 159 & 54 respectively, compared with 379 & 158 respectively at the same time of day for the same two polling stations in the local council by-election in May 2021.

Assuming that the turnout in the whole of Croydon is lower in the same proportions as these 2 polling stations (and that is a big assumption), that points to a total turnout of about 59,000 (22%) which would be a turnout of about 27,000 (56%) in the postal votes and about 32,000 (14%) in the on-the-day votes.

P.S. bear in mind that the turnout in Park Hill & Whitgift ward in May was the highest of all the wards in Croydon, so we can’t necessarily make such assumptions about the turnout being correspondingly lower in other wards where the turnout in May was much lower already.

[wallington]

Oct 7, 2021 16:25:38 GMT johnloony said:

Turnout in the two polling stations near to me up to 4pm today was 159 & 54 respectively, compared with 379 & 158 respectively at the same time of day for the same two polling stations in the local council by-election in May 2021.

Assuming that the turnout in the whole of Croydon is lower in the same proportions as these 2 polling stations (and that is a big assumption), that points to a total turnout of about 59,000 (22%) which would be a turnout of about 27,000 (56%) in the postal votes and about 32,000 (14%) in the on-the-day votes.

P.S. bear in mind that the turnout in Park Hill & Whitgift ward in May was the highest of all the wards in Croydon, so we can’t necessarily make such assumptions about the turnout being correspondingly lower in other wards where the turnout in May was much lower already.

I went to vote a couple hours ago, I was apparently the first person to go in the polling station "for about half an hour". Didn't have a look at any turnout figures, but I get the idea it had been very quiet all day. I predict turnout will be around 15% with the mayoral model winning 80/20.

[andrew111]

Oct 7, 2021 17:23:06 GMT wallington said:

Oct 7, 2021 16:25:38 GMT johnloony said:

Turnout in the two polling stations near to me up to 4pm today was 159 & 54 respectively, compared with 379 & 158 respectively at the same time of day for the same two polling stations in the local council by-election in May 2021.

Assuming that the turnout in the whole of Croydon is lower in the same proportions as these 2 polling stations (and that is a big assumption), that points to a total turnout of about 59,000 (22%) which would be a turnout of about 27,000 (56%) in the postal votes and about 32,000 (14%) in the on-the-day votes.

P.S. bear in mind that the turnout in Park Hill & Whitgift ward in May was the highest of all the wards in Croydon, so we can’t necessarily make such assumptions about the turnout being correspondingly lower in other wards where the turnout in May was much lower already.

I went to vote a couple hours ago, I was apparently the first person to go in the polling station "for about half an hour". Didn't have a look at any turnout figures, but I get the idea it had been very quiet all day. I predict turnout will be around 15% with the mayoral model winning 80/20.

The longstanding tradition where local voters have participated in a referendum on whether to have a Mayor is surely for the govt to impose the opposite of what people wanted?

[timrollpickering]

Oct 7, 2021 17:51:32 GMT andrew111 said:

Oct 7, 2021 17:23:06 GMT wallington said:

I went to vote a couple hours ago, I was apparently the first person to go in the polling station "for about half an hour". Didn't have a look at any turnout figures, but I get the idea it had been very quiet all day. I predict turnout will be around 15% with the mayoral model winning 80/20.

The longstanding tradition where local voters have participated in a referendum on whether to have a Mayor is surely for the govt to impose the opposite of what people wanted?

And what authority was given a mayor against a referendum?

Or in our case had the mayor taken away despite the referendum?

[andrew111]

Oct 7, 2021 20:20:10 GMT timrollpickering said:

Oct 7, 2021 17:51:32 GMT andrew111 said:

The longstanding tradition where local voters have participated in a referendum on whether to have a Mayor is surely for the govt to impose the opposite of what people wanted?

And what authority was given a mayor against a referendum?

Or in our case had the mayor taken away despite the referendum?

Kirklees, Leeds and Wakefield, for a start