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Post by andrew111 on Oct 7, 2021 23:15:29 GMT
4 solid holds. I will take that!
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Post by greenhert on Oct 7, 2021 23:17:05 GMT
I knew this would happen-Labour got in because the Independents' personal votes worked against each other, even though this is exactly the type of place that is not fond of Sir Keir Starmer.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Oct 7, 2021 23:18:18 GMT
Labour hold both Nottingham defences
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 7, 2021 23:19:16 GMT
4 solid holds. I will take that! Have we had the result from West Somerset & Taunton, then? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 7, 2021 23:19:48 GMT
Sherwood (Nottingham) by-election result:
LAB: 47.8% (-17.1)
NIND: 25.6% (+25.6)
CON: 13.0% (-1.0)
GRN: 7.9% (+7.9)
TUSC: 3.1% (+3.1)
LDEM: 2.6% (-9.8)
Labour HOLD.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 7, 2021 23:20:31 GMT
St Ann’s (Nottingham) by-election result:
LAB: 65.5% (+0.9)
NIND: 12.7% (+12.7)
CON: 12.1% (+1.2)
GRN: 5.7% (+5.7)
LDEM: 2.5% (-8.0)
TUSC: 1.5% (+1.5)
Labour HOLD.
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Post by BucksDucks on Oct 7, 2021 23:28:35 GMT
Lib Dem Hold - Wilton and Sherford, Somerset West & Taunton
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 7, 2021 23:32:58 GMT
4 solid holds. I will take that! Have we had the result from West Somerset & Taunton, then? Ah, no. I got confused by repetitions |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 7, 2021 23:33:56 GMT
We have now ... and yes, it is 4 holds
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 7, 2021 23:34:21 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 7, 2021 23:36:22 GMT
4 solid holds. I will take that! Have we had the result from West Somerset & Taunton, then? Not sure that we have , but given the county figures I woud guess the LDs are pretty confident about the district following a similar pattern?(okay' it came through while posting this !) Not much sense of a Tory conference bounce tonight? If anything it might be Labour with the most to celebrate? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 7, 2021 23:49:38 GMT
The Somerset district result is 5 posts higher.
Confirming the order of the Inds
Penyffordd (Flintshire) by-election result:
LAB: 37.4%
IND (Saxon): 24.5%
IND (Ransome): 24.2%
IND (Wakelam): 13.9%
Labour GAIN from Independent.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 8, 2021 0:08:43 GMT
Flintshire: Penyffordd - Labour gain from Independent| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | 2017 result | 2012 result | | Labour | 437 | 37.4% | unopposed | 46.7% | | Independent Saxon | 286 | 24.5% |
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| | Independent Ransome | 283 | 24.2% |
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| | Independent Wakelam | 163 | 13.9% |
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| | Independent Williams |
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| unopposed | 32.4% | | Independent Bithell |
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| 20.8% | | Total votes | 1,169 |
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Swing: Council now: 35 Labour, 16 Independent Alliance, 6 Conservative, 6 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 3 New Independent, 1 non-aligned Nottingham : St Ann's - Labour hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Labour | 1,048 | 65.5% | +0.9% | +0.8% | | Nottingham Independent | 204 | 12.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 193 | 12.1% | +1.2% | +1.9% | | Green | 92 | 5.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 40 | 2.5% | -8.0% | -8.2% | | TUSC | 24 | 1.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -14.1% | -14.5% | | Total votes | 1,601 |
| 52% | 53% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 50 Labour, 3 Independent, 2 Conservative Nottingham: Sherwood - Labour hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Labour | 1,174 | 47.8% | -17.1% | -18.4% | | Nottingham Independent | 629 | 25.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 320 | 13.0% | -1.0% | -0.3% | | Green | 195 | 7.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSC | 76 | 3.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 63 | 2.6% | -9.8% | -9.0% | | UKIP |
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| -8.7% | -8.9% | | Total votes | 2,457
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| 58% | 60% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 50 Labour, 3 Independent, 2 Conservative Rushcliffe: Musters - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 557 | 45.3% | -11.5% | -12.9% | -0.9% | -1.3% | | Labour | 353 | 28.7% | +8.9% | +9.3% | +5.9% | +5.5% | | Conservative | 320 | 26.0% | +2.6% | +3.6% | -5.1% | -4.2% | | Total votes | 1,230
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| 76% | 80% | 47% | 48% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Labour 10¼% / 11% since 2019 and 3½% since 2015 Liberal Democrat to Conservative 7% / 8½% since 2019 but Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2% / 1½% since 2015 Council now: 29 Conservative, 7 Labour, 3 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 2 Green Somerset: Cometrowe & Tull - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | | Liberal Democrat | 1,677
| 63.2% | +15.6% | +23.3% | | Conservative | 886 | 33.4% | -6.4% | +2.4% | | Labour | 92 | 3.5% | -2.4% | -3.0% | | Green |
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| -3.5% | -3.7% | | UKIP |
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| -3.4% | -19.0% | | Total votes | 2,655 |
| 71% | 71% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 11% since 2017 and 10½% since 2013 Council now: 33 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 2 Green, 2 Independent, 1 non-aligned Somerset West & Taunton: Wilton & Sherford - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | | Liberal Democrat | 489 | 56.9% | -11.5% | | Conservative | 314 | 36.5% | +4.9% | | Green | 57 | 6.6% | from nowhere | | Total votes | 860 |
| 85% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 8¼% since 2019 Council now: 30 Liberal Democrat, 13 Independent, 10 Conservative, 3 Labour, 2 Green, 1 no affiliation Waverley: Cranleigh East - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | Since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 903 | 56.8% | +12.0% | +13.2% | +32.2% | +32.5% | | Conservative | 686 | 43.2% | +4.1% | +3.8% | -1.9% | -1.8% | | Labour |
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| -16.1% | -17.1% | -13.9% | -14.0% | | Independent |
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| -16.4% | -16.8% | | Total votes | 1,589 |
| 91% | 97% | 43% | 44% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 4% / 4¾% since 2019 and 17% / 17¼% since 2015 Council now: 21 Conservative, 15 Liberal Democrat, 15 Farnham Residents, 2 Labour, 2 Green, 2 Independent
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,557
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Oct 8, 2021 0:32:14 GMT
They have just announced that the turnout in the Croydon referendum was 57,319 (21%). The postal votes were approximately 80% in favour of a democratically elected mayor. The votes from polling stations are about 70% in safe Labour wards, and more than 90% in some of the safe Conservative wards. I expect a final result of approximately 11,000 & 46,000.
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,557
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Oct 8, 2021 1:40:41 GMT
Croydon Referendum
Status Quo 11,519 (19.6%)
Elected Mayor 47,165 (80.4%)
spoilt 213
Turnout 58,897 (21.3%)
Electorate 277,022
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 8, 2021 6:05:49 GMT
Adding the changes since last time where comparisons are possible gives Lab + 6.6%; Con + 5.4%, and LibDem - 13.2%. I don't know if this is a useful metric or not - maybe time will tell.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 8, 2021 6:46:54 GMT
Adding the changes since last time where comparisons are possible gives Lab + 6.6%; Con + 5.4%, and LibDem - 13.2%. I don't know if this is a useful metric or not - maybe time will tell. I'm not sure it tells us much - after all 4 tricky-ish LD defences where change from incumbent always liable to count against you, especially where it's from a resignation, and the two Nottingham results where I assume there would be no effort made as I guess any available resources would have gone to Rushcliffe. It would have been surprising if the LD voteshare has not been down quite a bit. I suppose the fact that marginally the swing is more towards Labour than the Tories may be a bit surprising but I guess more reflects the particular seats that happen to have come up- but as I said precious little sign of the Boris conference bounce some seem to have anticipated. |
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,098
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Post by ilerda on Oct 8, 2021 7:13:52 GMT
I am not aware of any directly elected mayors for any of those cities or boroughs. All three of those boroughs now have participated in an election for a Mayor. Therefore they have a Mayor.
All three of those boroughs rejected the idea of having an elected Mayor by large majorities in referendums. No further referendums have been held regarding a Mayor for West Yorkshire - that Mayor has been imposed without consultation.
Since the much narrower Brexit referendum has been interpreted by the Tories as rejection of membership of the Single Market, I think I am perfectly entitled to interpret the Mayoral referendums as rejection of the concept of an elected Mayor in general. And as we know, such decisions last for generations, apparently
The fact they happen to have the same title does not mean they are the same job. They rejected a directly elected local authority mayor as a change from the cabinet system. They did not reject a devolved metro mayor as that was not on the ballot paper at the time. The fact that no referendum was held on the metro mayor is not the same as saying it was imposed against the result of a referendum - it was simply done without one. It would be like using the result of the EU referendum to claim a mandate to also withdraw from NATO and the UN, even though neither of those things were part of the question. At least the single market is part of the EU - metro mayors and local authority mayors are entirely separate things. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Oct 8, 2021 7:27:10 GMT
The Sherwood (Nottingham) Labour branch is one of those suspended this summer for antisemitism incidents.
Moreover, former Nottingham East CLP chair Louise Regan (who was suspended last year after an all member meetings that discussed a pro-Corbyn motion) was from that branch.
It is probably quite dysfunctional.
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 8, 2021 7:33:15 GMT
Also, I believe Tony's stat is perhaps potentially misleading - using all of the results except Flintshire I get:
Labour -9.2% (down 359 votes)
Tory -0.8% (down 36 votes)
Lib Dem 0.0% (up 1 vote)
The intervention of the Nottingham Independents in an area of Labour strength will undoubtedly introduce an artificial skew against Labour overall - without that they would have been up, and given the gain in Flintshire then a good night for Labour.
Four successful defenses and a flat vote overall looks like a success to me for the Lib Dems.
Four possible targets, no successes, during conference week and an overall drop in votes looks like a weak night for the Tories.
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