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Post by agbutler on Sept 15, 2021 21:34:40 GMT
Ealing, Hobbayne. Lab 59, Con 20, Green 15, LD 5, TUSC 1
Malvern Hills, Tenbury. Ind 21, Con 26, Lab 27, LD 26
Middlesbrough, Ladgate. Lab 35, Grainge 22, Con 17, Platt 19, Hoban 5, LD 2
Sheffield, Firth Park. Lab 65, Con 20, Green 6, LD 5, Ind 4
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 15, 2021 21:49:34 GMT
Ealing LBC, Hobbayne:
Conservative 29, Labour 51, Liberal Democrat 7, Green 12, TUSC 1.
Malvern Hills DC, Tenbury:
Conservative 33, Labour 20, Liberal Democrat 3, Independent 44.
Middlesbrough UA, Ladgate:
Conservative 39, Labour 38, Liberal Democrat 2, Independent Grainge 11, Independent Hoban 2.5, Independent Platt 7.5.
Sheffield MBC, Firth Park:
Conservative 20, Labour 62, Liberal Democrat 5, Green 8.5, Worrall 4.5.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 15, 2021 23:10:20 GMT
Where are the usual Teale previews? I can’t find them. Anyway, Büosagab:
Ealing Hobbayne: Lab 55 Con 25 Grn 12 LD 7 TUSC 1
Malvern Hills Tenbury: Con 38 Ind 30 Lab 18 LD 14
Middlesbrough Ladgate: Lab 42 Con 20 G 16 P 14 H 4 LD 4
Sheffield Firth Prak: Lab 60 Con 21 Grn 11 LD 4 W 4
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 15, 2021 23:16:30 GMT
Ealing LBC, Hobbayne:
Conservative 27, Labour 49, Liberal Democrat 10, Green 13, TUSC 1.
Malvern Hills DC, Tenbury:
Conservative 39, Labour 10, Liberal Democrat 10, Independent 41.
Middlesbrough UA, Ladgate:
Conservative 32, Labour 33, Liberal Democrat 3, Independent Grainge 13, Independent Hoban 4, Independent Platt 15.
Sheffield MBC, Firth Park:
Conservative 22, Labour 52, Liberal Democrat 10, Green 12, Worrall 4.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2021 23:19:57 GMT
Hobbayne (Ealing): Lab 52 Con 25 Grn 12 LD 10 TUSC 1
Tenbury (Malvern Hills): Ind 43 Con 37 LD 17 Lab 3
Ladgate (Middlesbrough): Ind (Grainge) 27 Lab 25 Con 20 Ind (Platt) 18 Ind (Hoban) 7 LD 3
Firth Park (Sheffield): Lab 50 Con 20 Grn 18 LD 7 Ind 5
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Post by rightleaning on Sept 16, 2021 4:52:44 GMT
Ealing Hobbayne: Lab 53, C 27, Gn 10, LD 9, TUSC 1
Malvern Hills Tenbury: Ind 40, C 38, Lab 14, LD 8
Middlesbrough Ladgate: C 37, Lab 34, Ind (G) 11, Ind (P) 8, LD 6, Ind (H) 4
Sheffield Firth Prak: Lab 55, C 24, Gn 11, LD 6, Ind 4
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 16, 2021 5:35:26 GMT
Where are the usual Teale previews? I can’t find them._(my underscore) Anyway, Büosagab: Ealing Hobbayne: Lab 55 Con 25 Grn 12 LD 7 TUSC 1 Malvern Hills Tenbury: Con 38 Ind 30 Lab 18 LD 14 Middlesbrough Ladgate: Lab 42 Con 20 G 16 P 14 H 4 LD 4 Sheffield Firth Prak: Lab 60 Con 21 Grn 11 LD 4 W 4 All the usual ones can be found at www.britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/ |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 16, 2021 6:18:53 GMT
Ealing, Hobbayne: Con 25, Lab 55, LD 5, GP 14, TUSC1.
Malvern Hills, Tenbury: Con 35, Lab 12, LD 15, Ind Bruton 38
Middlesbrough, Ladgate: Con 27, Lab 33, LD 2, Ind Grainge 20, Ind Platt 12,Ind Hobain 6.
Sheffield, Firth: Con 17, Lab 58, LD 10, GP11, ND Worrall 4
These were all ready to go by midnight last night, but after last week's fiasco didn't risk posting them then. The forecasts may be quite wrong (unsurprisingly given this difficult lot)but I hope I have at least avoided giving the votes to a party that wasn't standing.
(Oh and the later edit was just to embolden Labour in Sheffield, if you see what I mean)
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 16, 2021 6:35:42 GMT
Ealing LBC, Hobbayne: Lab 50, Con 27, Grn 15, LDm 7, TUSC 1
Malvern Hills DC, Tenbury: Ind 45, Con 36, Lab 13, LDm 6
Middlesbrough UA, Ladgate: Lab 27, Con 25, Ind Grainge 24, Ind Platt 17, Ind Hoban 4, LDm 3
Sheffield MBC, Firth Park: Lab 48, Con 27, LDm 11, Grn 10, Ind 4
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 16, 2021 7:23:01 GMT
Ealing, Hobbayne: Con 25, Lab 55, LD 5, GP 14, TUSC1. Malvern Hills, Tenbury: Con 35, Lab 12, LD 15, Ind Bruton 38
Middlesbrough, Ladgate: Con 27, Lab 33, LD 2, Ind Grainge 20, Ind Platt 12,Ind Hobain 6. Sheffield, Firth: Con 17, Lab 58, LD 10, GP11, ND Worrall 4 These were all ready to go by midnight last night, but after last week's fiasco didn't risk posting them then. The forecasts may be quite wrong (unsurprisingly given this difficult lot)but I hope I have at least avoided giving the votes to a party that wasn't standing. (Oh and the later edit was just to embolden Labour in Sheffield, if you see what I mean_(my underscore)) More or less or possibly, and as it happens minutes after posting i saw an EnglandElects tweet that had the LibDems 'working Firth Park hard' and then also found other info indicating so. Hence for the purpose of the competition the earlier post shall count, but for the purpose of my prediction the LibDem in Firth Park is hiked by 15 percent at the expense of the Labour candidate. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 16, 2021 8:34:04 GMT
Ealing, Hobbayne: Con 25, Lab 55, LD 5, GP 14, TUSC1. Malvern Hills, Tenbury: Con 35, Lab 12, LD 15, Ind Bruton 38
Middlesbrough, Ladgate: Con 27, Lab 33, LD 2, Ind Grainge 20, Ind Platt 12,Ind Hobain 6. Sheffield, Firth: Con 17, Lab 58, LD 10, GP11, ND Worrall 4 These were all ready to go by midnight last night, but after last week's fiasco didn't risk posting them then. The forecasts may be quite wrong (unsurprisingly given this difficult lot)but I hope I have at least avoided giving the votes to a party that wasn't standing. (Oh and the later edit was just to embolden Labour in Sheffield, if you see what I mean_(my underscore)) More or less or possibly, and as it happens minutes after posting i saw an EnglandElects tweet that had the LibDems 'working Firth Park hard' and then also found other info indicating so. Hence for the purpose of the competition the earlier post shall count, but for the purpose of my prediction the LibDem in Firth Park is hiked by 15 percent at the expense of the Labour candidate. I went for 10% in the end but was strongly tempted to go higher, and would probably also want to raise it further now past the deadline. I wasn't sure how much effort the Sheffield LibDems were putting in but they certainly wanted to get the message across that they were, and if they weren't getting results on the ground they wouldn't be that stupid, would they? Well would they? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 16, 2021 12:06:00 GMT
It's a pity nobody went for the Lib Dems in Middlesbrough - it would have been something to have a contest where we'd picked 6 different winners between us.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 16, 2021 13:03:12 GMT
It's a pity nobody went for the Lib Dems in Middlesbrough - it would have been something to have a contest where we'd picked 6 different winners between us. We have nevertheless I think gone for 10 winners over the 4 seats which should get a good spread of wrong winner points somewhere. An awful lot if the LibDems were indeed to win in Middlesbrough, of course. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 16, 2021 16:13:45 GMT
It's a pity nobody went for the Lib Dems in Middlesbrough - it would have been something to have a contest where we'd picked 6 different winners between us. The joy of three Indos. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 16, 2021 18:20:01 GMT
15 complete entries this week, all on time. I also received a prediction through private message for Firth Park only from mattbewilson, which I've included as part of the individual contest but not in the rankings. Tony Otim receives 0.3 faults for going 0.2 and 0.1 under in Middlesbrough and Ealing respectively, andykernow receives 2 for going over in Middlesbrough and mattbewilson receives 1 for predicting that share for a non-existent TUSC candidate in Sheffield (apologies to Matt, would have pointed this out but didn't catch in time). Hobbayne, Ealing: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (andykernow) to 39% (alien8ted). Tenbury, Malvern Hills: 10 Independent (Bruton) gain from Conservative, with alien8ted, andykernow, johnloony and peterl Conservative hold, and agbutler Labour gain. Ladgate, Middlesbrough: 8 Labour hold, with Right Leaning and Toylyyev Conservative gain, European Lefty and Tony Otim Ind (Grainge) gain, greenhert and Richard Cromwell Ind (Platt) gain and andykernow Ind (Hoban) gain. Phew! Firth Park, Sheffield: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 21% (iainbhx) to 45% (agbutler and Richard Cromwell). Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gS1O22hQ5eqfwnxalxlqQuD7-sEEE9X9mQjCBY1RjK4/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 16, 2021 23:51:05 GMT
My method of predikshun this week was initially merely to average the 9 predictions before me, but then I adjusted 2 of the 4 results by a few percent, just because of my gut feeling. Although my actual predictions are way out, the 2 that I changed are both better than they would have been if I had left the original averages unadjusted. So hooray, but only slightly.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 17, 2021 6:08:02 GMT
15 complete entries this week, all on time. I also received a prediction through private message for Firth Park only from mattbewilson, which I've included as part of the individual contest but not in the rankings. Tony Otim receives 0.3 faults for going 0.2 and 0.1 under in Middlesbrough and Ealing respectively, andykernow receives 2 for going over in Middlesbrough and mattbewilson receives 1 for predicting that share for a non-existent TUSC candidate in Sheffield (apologies to Matt, would have pointed this out but didn't catch in time). Hobbayne, Ealing: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (andykernow) to 39% (alien8ted). Tenbury, Malvern Hills: 10 Independent (Bruton) gain from Conservative, with alien8ted, andykernow, johnloony and peterl Conservative hold, and agbutler Labour gain. Ladgate, Middlesbrough: 8 Labour hold, with Right Leaning and Toylyyev Conservative gain, European Lefty and Tony Otim Ind (Grainge) gain, greenhert and Richard Cromwell Ind (Platt) gain and andykernow Ind (Hoban) gain. Phew! Firth Park, Sheffield: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 21% (iainbhx) to 45% (agbutler and Richard Cromwell). Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gS1O22hQ5eqfwnxalxlqQuD7-sEEE9X9mQjCBY1RjK4/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! 's prediction in Sheffield was significantly better than the others I see. Hopefully he will get around to making a contirbution to the St Albans thread (and others) in due course |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 17, 2021 10:03:38 GMT
Ah yes, so it is him. Welcome back  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 17, 2021 12:24:25 GMT
Congratulations to iainbhx for a convincing win in this difficult week! |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 17, 2021 12:41:14 GMT
Congratulations to Iain for the week's win in a difficult time and to Robert for maintaing his comfortable lead for the month so far. My third place for the week makes a minor contribution towards a climb back after last week's disaster, but if I had followed my gut instinct in Sheffield I could have made a big stride towards wiping out that sixty point loss from last week. Next week be more courageous! (and fall off a cliff, I know).
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