Prediction Competition - September 2021

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 27 by-elections for 28 seats during September.

- 3 by-elections on 2 September
- 6 on 9 September
- 4 on 16 September
- 6 on 23 September
- 2 including a “double” by-election on 28 September (note: this is a Tuesday)
- 6 on 30 September

16 by-elections, including the “double” by-election are for District Councils last contested in 2019, although two wards had a by-election in May
7 are for a Metropolitan Council previously contested in May
5 are for District Councils last contested in 2019
2 are for Unitary Authorities last contested in 2019
2 are in a London Borough last contested in 2018
1 is in a District Council where the ward was last contested in 2018

Conservatives defend 12 of the by-election seats including both seats in the “double” election, 11 following a resignation, one of which was sitting as an Independent, and 1 a disqualification where the previous councillor was sitting as an Independent Conservative
Labour defend 7 seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor, one of which was sitting in the Middlesbrough Independent Group and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 5 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 4 a resignation, one of which was sitting as an Independent
Independents defend 2 seats, one following the death of the previous councillor and one a resignation
Residents Groups defend 2 seats, one in Epsom and Ewell following the death of the previous councillor and one in the Residents for Wilmslow Group a resignation

With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 28 Conservative candidates, 26 Labour, 24 Liberal Democrats, 21 Greens, 1 North East Party, 1 Residents for Wilmslow Group, 1 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 1 Residents Association of Cuddington and 1 Putting Cumbria First along with 13 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 8 seats
- a total of 127 candidates for 28 seats.

Again, note that the 28th contests take place on a Tuesday. Top vote is used for the “double” election and as always, predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[greenhert]

Calderdale MBC, Park: Labour 65, Conservative 27, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 4.
Calderdale MBC, Ryburn: Conservative 60, Labour 22, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 8. Conservative gain from Independent.
Cheshire East UA, Wilmslow Dean Row: Residents of Wilmslow 55, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 5.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

CALDERDALE MBC; Park
Labour – 62%
Conservative – 30%
Green – 5%
Liberal Democrat – 3%

CALDERDALE MBC; Ryburn
Conservative – 56%
Labour – 26%
Green – 13%
Liberal Democrat -5%

CHESHIRE EAST UA; Wilmslow Dean Row
Residents of Wilmslow – 55%
Conservative – 31%
Green - 8%
Liberal Democrat – 6%

[peterl]

CALDERDALE MBC; Park
Labour – 57%
Conservative – 31%
Green – 7%
Liberal Democrat – 5%

CALDERDALE MBC; Ryburn
Conservative – 52%
Labour – 27%
Green – 15%
Liberal Democrat -6%

CHESHIRE EAST UA; Wilmslow Dean Row
Residents of Wilmslow – 58%
Conservative – 27%
Green - 10%
Liberal Democrat – 5%

[Richard Cromwell]

Park, Calderdale

LAB	57%
CON	24%
GRN	11%
LD	8%

Ryburn, Calderdale

CON	44%
LAB	29%
GRN	15%
LD	12%

Wilmslow Dean Row, Chesire East

CON	40%
Residents	39%
LD	14%
GRN	7%

[Tony Otim]

Calderdale, Park: Lab 61.7; Con 31.0; Grn 3.8; LD 3.5
Calderdale, Ryburn: Con 55.9; Lab 29.9; Grn 8.9; LD 5.3
Cheshire East: Res 53.1; Con 30.5; LD 9.8; Grn 6.6

[agbutler]

Calderdale, Park: Lab 69.3; Con 27.2; Grn 1.8; LD 1.7
Calderdale, Ryburn: Con 45.9; Lab 34.9; Grn 10.9; LD 8.3
Cheshire East: Res 55.1; Con 29.0; LD 9.8; Grn 6.1

[Toylyyev]

Caldersdale MBC, Park:
Conservative 10, Labour 85, Liberal Democrat 2, Green 3.
Ryburn:
Conservative 47.7, Labour 47.8, Liberal Democrat 2, Green 2.5.

Cheshire East UA, Wilmslow Dean Row:
Conservative 32.5, Liberal Democrat 2, Green 2, Residents of Wilmslow 63.5.

[andrewp]

Calderdale. Park. Lab 64, Con 24, LD 6, Green 6
Calderdale, Ryburn, Con 55, Lab 30, Green 10, LD 5
Cheshire East, Wilmslow Dean Row, Res 48, Con 34, LD 11, Green 7

[yellowperil]

Calderdale, Park: Con 26, Lab 64, LD4, GP 6
Calderdale,Ryburn: Con 54, Lab 40,LD 2, GP 4
Cheshire East, Wilmslow Dean Row:Con 31, LD 5, GP 6, Res 58

[Robert Waller]

Calderdale. Park. Lab 78, Con 15, LD 4, Green 3
Calderdale, Ryburn, Con 57, Lab 31, Green 6, LD 6
Cheshire East, Wilmslow Dean Row, Res 54, Con 34, LD 6, Green 6

[rightleaning]

Calderdale. Park. Lab 73, C 16, LD 6, Gn 5
Calderdale, Ryburn, C 45, Lab 39, Gn 9, LD 7
Cheshire East, Wilmslow Dean Row, Res 52, C 31, LD 10, Gn 7

[Deleted]

Park (Calderdale): Lab 67 Con 20 LD 8 Grn 5
Ryburn (Calderdale): Con 50 Lab 35 LD 10 Grn 5
Wilmslow Dean Row (Cheshire E): WRA 55 Con 28 LD 10 Grn 7

[iainbhx]

Bugger I'm away on holiday this week and forgot about this.

Late (10am) but.

Calderdale MBC - Park : Lab 68, Con 22, Grn 6 LDm 4
Calderdale MBC - Ryburn : Con 56, Lab 31, LDm 8, Grn 5
Cheshire East UA - Wilmslow Dean Row : RoW 56, Con 31, LDm 9, Grn 4

[robbienicoll]

13 entrants to open the month, with agbutler returning and andykernow missing. All correct, although iainbhx receives 3 x 10 faults for posting an hour late.

Park, Calderdale: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 26% (peterl) to 75% (Toylyyev).
Ryburn, Calderdale: 12 Conservative gain from Independent, majorities ranging from 6% (Right Leaning) to 38% (greenhert). Toylyyev has a Labour gain with a majority of 0.1%.
Wilmslow Dean Row, Cheshire East: 12 Residents of Wilmslow hold, majorities ranging from 14% (andrewp) to 31% (peterl and Toylyyev). Richard Cromwell has a Conservative gain with a majority of 1%.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rG82I_Iklt2-7NxFL-lGtmmSRIRGbB-8PF622UCSQy0/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[yellowperil]

Dont think Robbie has put it up yet, but on my calculations that would give the week to Robert just ahead of Rightleaning. Congratulations to those if my Maths is right (never a given)

[robbienicoll]

Sept 3, 2021 0:58:13 GMT yellowperil said:

Dont think Robbie has put it up yet, but on my calculations that would give the week to Robert just ahead of Rightleaning. Congratulations to those if my Maths is right (never a given)

Results are now up and you're quite correct - Robert is ahead on 40.4 with Right Leaning on 56.9 and yourself in third on 65.2. Quite a strong week with no horror shows, so we'll see if that keeps up over the month!

[robbienicoll]

OP has been updated with complete candidacy numbers.

[Tony Otim]

Castle: LD 45.4; Lab 27.7; Con 17.1; Grn 6.1; NEP 3.7
Barlow & Holmesfield: Con 70.5; Lab 18.3; LD 11.2
Killamarsh East: Con 52.8; Lab 40.5; LD 6.7
Camperdown: Lab 62.3; Con 28.1; LD 5.5; Grn 4.1
Seales: Con 53.1; Lab 28.4; Wheelton 12.7; Grn 5.8
Cleadon & East Boldon: Lab 42.8; Con 41.8; Grn 15.4

[andykernow]

Missed last week due to work so getting ahead of the game tomorrow : -

Newcastle On Tyne - Castle - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 45%
Labour - 20%
North East Party - 12%
Green - 5%
Conservative - 18%

North East Derbyshire - Barlow - Con Hold

Labour - 30%
Conservative - 53%
Lib Dem - 18%

North East Derbyshire - Killamarsh - Lab gain from Con

Lib Dem - 19%
Labour - 41%
Conservative - 40%

North Tyneside - Camperdown - Lab Hold

Green - 10%
Labour - 61%
Conservative - 23%
Lib Dem - 6%

South Derbyshire - Seales - Con Hold

Green - 10%
Labour - 28%
Conservative - 40%
Independent - 22%

South Tyneside - Cleadon - Lab Gain from Con

Green - 21%
Labour - 51%
Conservative - 28%