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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 9, 2021 23:22:24 GMT
15 entries this week, with andykernow and johnloony returning. Andykernow receives 1 fault for going over in Barlow and Holmesfield. European Lefty made an edit 5 minutes over the deadline, but as I'm not a mod I'm unable to see what was changed. I've provisionally added a 2.5 fault for this as I assume there was an edit made to one contest, but if this was not the case I'm happy to amend (and please be honest!). Sorry to yellowperil as well, this one will be a stinger and through a relatively minor fault, but as precedent goes 30 faults are given for the omission of the Green candidate plus the 30 given to the non-existent LD means that the Green prediction is a 0, therefore faults will be given on that basis. Castle, Newcastle-upon-Tyne: 14 Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (yellowperil) to 25% (andykernow), with Richard Cromwell Labour gain (majority 3%). Barlow and Holmesfield, North East Derbyshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 20% (alien8ted) to 52.2% (Tony Otim). Killamarsh East, North East Derbyshire: 11 Conservative hold, with alien8ted, andykernow, European Lefty and Toylyyev Labour gain. Camperdown, North Tyneside: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 26% (iainbhx) to 46% (Richard Cromwell). Seales, South Derbyshire: 12 Conservative hold, with Toylyyev and yellowperil Independent gain and agbutler Labour gain. Cleadon and East Boldon, South Tyneside: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with alien8ted, andrewp, greenhert, Right Leaning, Robert Waller and yellowperil Conservative hold, and Toylyyev Green gain. Results (with 3 contests called so far) available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tIecnWf3CgJgE5K1mNQX7ujCgb8A0CBEhwuAZsIiX8M/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 10, 2021 6:52:51 GMT
That was an infuriating error on my part. I notice that if I had not made that idiotic mistake in typing up my results from my notebook (which of course had had the Green on 30%.!) I would actually have won in South Tyneside. with about 6 faults rather than 66! That method of working from notebooks and then just typing them in here later as a fairly mechanical exercise has a few disadvantages I am beginning to realise, especially when done at midnight and fighting pain.Thanks again to those who tried to alert me to the error of my ways but I wasn't around to make the correction in time. These issues are likely to get worse for me from now on so I may decide to withdraw altogether- I haven't quite decided yet.  |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 10, 2021 7:00:36 GMT
That was an infuriating error on my part. I notice that if I had not made that idiotic mistake in typing up my results from my notebook (which of course had had the Green on 30%.!) I would actually have won in South Tyneside. with about 6 faults rather than 66! That method of working from notebooks and then just typing them in here later as a fairly mechanical exercise has a few disadvantages I am beginning to realise, especially when done at midnight and fighting pain.Thanks again to those who tried to alert me to the error of my ways but I wasn't around to make the correction in time. These issues are likely to get worse for me from now on so I may decide to withdraw altogether- I haven't quite decided yet. Ach we all make errors, stay with the fun. You'll never get as bad as me at it. π |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 10, 2021 7:59:06 GMT
That was an infuriating error on my part. I notice that if I had not made that idiotic mistake in typing up my results from my notebook (which of course had had the Green on 30%.!) I would actually have won in South Tyneside. with about 6 faults rather than 66! That method of working from notebooks and then just typing them in here later as a fairly mechanical exercise has a few disadvantages I am beginning to realise, especially when done at midnight and fighting pain.Thanks again to those who tried to alert me to the error of my ways but I wasn't around to make the correction in time. These issues are likely to get worse for meΒ from now on so I may decide to withdraw altogether- I haven't quite decided yet. Or you could look at it as your correct prediction being so accurate as a great reason to stay... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2021 8:50:38 GMT
15 entries this week, with andykernow and johnloony returning. Andykernow receives 1 fault for going over in Barlow and Holmesfield. European Lefty made an edit 5 minutes over the deadline, but as I'm not a mod I'm unable to see what was changed. I've provisionally added a 2.5 fault for this as I assume there was an edit made to one contest, but if this was not the case I'm happy to amend (and please be honest!). Sorry to yellowperil as well, this one will be a stinger and through a relatively minor fault, but as precedent goes 30 faults are given for the omission of the Green candidate plus the 30 given to the non-existent LD means that the Green prediction is a 0, therefore faults will be given on that basis. Castle, Newcastle-upon-Tyne: 14 Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (yellowperil) to 25% (andykernow), with Richard Cromwell Labour gain (majority 3%). Barlow and Holmesfield, North East Derbyshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 20% (alien8ted) to 52.2% (Tony Otim). Killamarsh East, North East Derbyshire: 11 Conservative hold, with alien8ted, andykernow, European Lefty and Toylyyev Labour gain. Camperdown, North Tyneside: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 26% (iainbhx) to 46% (Richard Cromwell). Seales, South Derbyshire: 12 Conservative hold, with Toylyyev and yellowperil Independent gain and agbutler Labour gain. Cleadon and East Boldon, South Tyneside: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with alien8ted, andrewp, greenhert, Right Leaning, Robert Waller and yellowperil Conservative hold, and Toylyyev Green gain. Results (with 3 contests called so far) available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tIecnWf3CgJgE5K1mNQX7ujCgb8A0CBEhwuAZsIiX8M/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! The edit was simply because I'd managed to type a line break instead of a space in one of the entries so I edited it for clarity and neatness, but none of the actual entries were changed. I don't know if the mods would be able to confirm that though |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 10, 2021 10:21:58 GMT
15 entries this week, with andykernow and johnloony returning. Andykernow receives 1 fault for going over in Barlow and Holmesfield. European Lefty made an edit 5 minutes over the deadline, but as I'm not a mod I'm unable to see what was changed. I've provisionally added a 2.5 fault for this as I assume there was an edit made to one contest, but if this was not the case I'm happy to amend (and please be honest!). Sorry to yellowperil as well, this one will be a stinger and through a relatively minor fault, but as precedent goes 30 faults are given for the omission of the Green candidate plus the 30 given to the non-existent LD means that the Green prediction is a 0, therefore faults will be given on that basis. Castle, Newcastle-upon-Tyne: 14 Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (yellowperil) to 25% (andykernow), with Richard Cromwell Labour gain (majority 3%). Barlow and Holmesfield, North East Derbyshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 20% (alien8ted) to 52.2% (Tony Otim). Killamarsh East, North East Derbyshire: 11 Conservative hold, with alien8ted, andykernow, European Lefty and Toylyyev Labour gain. Camperdown, North Tyneside: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 26% (iainbhx) to 46% (Richard Cromwell). Seales, South Derbyshire: 12 Conservative hold, with Toylyyev and yellowperil Independent gain and agbutler Labour gain. Cleadon and East Boldon, South Tyneside: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with alien8ted, andrewp, greenhert, Right Leaning, Robert Waller and yellowperil Conservative hold, and Toylyyev Green gain. Results (with 3 contests called so far) available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tIecnWf3CgJgE5K1mNQX7ujCgb8A0CBEhwuAZsIiX8M/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! The edit was simply because I'd managed to type a line break instead of a space in one of the entries so I edited it for clarity and neatness, but none of the actual entries were changed. I don't know if the mods would be able to confirm that though That's fine by me, will remove those just now. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 10, 2021 11:58:23 GMT
Congratulations to Robert Waller for winning the week and extending the lead for the month. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 10, 2021 12:28:53 GMT
Congratulations to Robert Waller for winning the week and extending the lead for the month. Double bubble for Robert this week as Buxton got through their FA Cup replay. 5-1 over Sherwood Colliery. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 10, 2021 12:46:14 GMT
I didn't bother doing any research. I just did the average of the first 7 entries in this week's predictions. I was too lazy to bother adding up all 12 of the predictions before me.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 10, 2021 13:11:22 GMT
That was an infuriating error on my part. I notice that if I had not made that idiotic mistake in typing up my results from my notebook (wh ich of course had had the Green on 30%.!) I would actually have won in South Tyneside. with about 6 faults rather than 66! That method of working from notebooks and then just typing them in here later as a fairly mechanical exercise has a few disadvantages I am beginning to realise, especially when done at midnight and fighting pain.Thanks again to those who tried to alert me to the error of my ways but I wasn't around to make the correction in time. These issues are likely to get worse for me from now on so I may decide to withdraw altogether- I haven't quite decided yet. Or you could look at it as your correct prediction being so accurate as a great reason to stay... Hmm, yes...I note that without that swingeing penalty for that one piece of utter stupidity , I would have been second for the week and second overall for the month -as it is I drop to 11th for the week and 7th for the month. I still of course would not have got near Robert Waller so heartiest congratulations to him. I'm still considering whether to continue or to withdraw, not because of carrying that 60 point handicap for the rest of the month but because it brings home to me just how precarious my present lifestyle is. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 10, 2021 13:14:07 GMT
Congratulations to Robert Waller for winning the week and extending the lead for the month. Double bubble for Robert this week as Buxton got through their FA Cup replay. 5-1 over Sherwood Colliery. That's well remembered, thank you! - though as I did my doctoral research on the Nottinghamshire coalfield there were slightly divided affections ... |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 10, 2021 13:30:11 GMT
Or you could look at it as your correct prediction being so accurate as a great reason to stay... Hmm, yes...I note that without that swingeing penalty for that one piece of utter stupidity , I would have been second for the week and second overall for the month -as it is I drop to 11th for the week and 7th for the month. I still of course would not have got near Robert Waller so heartiest congratulations to him. I'm still considering whether to continue or to withdraw, not because of carrying that 60 point handicap for the rest of the month but because it brings home to me just how precarious my present lifestyle is.
Do what gives you most enjoyment.
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 13, 2021 10:48:41 GMT
As noted in the relevant Local By-Elections thread, there has been a further contest (Shepshed West, Charnwood, Con defence) announced on the 23rd September so is within the 8 day grace period for inclusion in the competition. The OP has been updated to reflect this.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 14, 2021 19:59:41 GMT
Couple of tough ones this week:
Ealing: Lab 52.1; Con 24.3; Grn 13.9; LD 8.7; TUSC 0.9
Malvern Hills: Bruton 33.1; Con 30.0; Lab 21.9; LD 15.0
Middlesbrough: Grainge 26.3; Lab 21.7; Platt 20.6; Con 15.8; Hoban 12.3; LD 3.1
Sheffield: Lab 59.5; Con 17.1; Grn 12.2; LD 7.4; Worrall 3.8
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Post by andykernow on Sept 15, 2021 9:00:39 GMT
Here we go....
Ealing - Hobbayne - Lab Hold
Green - 15%
Conservative - 31%
TUSC - 3%
Lib Dem - 10%
Labour - 41%
Malvern - Tenbury - Con Hold
Independent - 19%
Lib Dem - 23%
Labour - 25%
Conservative - 33%
Middlesborough - Ladgate - Ind H gain from Lab
Ind G - 5%
Lib Dem - 5%
Ind H - 28%
Conservative - 12%
Ind P - 25%
Labour - 27%
Sheffield - Firth
Lib Dem - 3%
Labour - 58%
Green - 12%
Conservative 22%
No Descrip - 5%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 15, 2021 12:27:21 GMT
EALING LBC; Hobbayne
Labour β 49%
Conservative β 27.8%
Green β 15%
Liberal Democrat β 7%
TUSC β 1.2%
MALVERN HILLS DC; Tenbury
Conservative β 57%
Labour β 14.5%
Independent β 14.3%
Liberal Democrat β 14.2%
MIDDLESBROUGH UA; Ladgate
Labour β 49.9%
Conservative β 21%
GRAINGE, Tony (Independent) β 9%
PLATT, Sharon (Independent) β 8%
Liberal Democrat β 7%
HOBAN, Vic (Independent) β 5.1%
SHEFFIELD MBC; Firth Park
Labour β 58%
Conservative - 26%
Green β 9%
Liberal Democrat β 3.6%
No Description -3.4%
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Sept 15, 2021 14:57:36 GMT
Hobbayne, Ealing | LAB | 47% | | GRN | 27% | | CON | 20% | | LD | 5% | | TUSC | 1% |
Tenbury, Malvern Hills Ladgate, Middlesbrough | Sharon Platt | 29% | | LAB | 26% | | CON | 16% | | Tony Grainge | 15% | | Vic Hoban | 9% | | LD | 5% |
Firth Park, Sheffield | LAB | 63% | | CON | 18% | | GRN | 14% | | No Description | 4% | | LD | 1% |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 15, 2021 20:49:18 GMT
Ealing LBC, Hobbayne: Labour 51, Conservative 22, Green 20, Liberal Democrats 6, TUSC 1.
Malvern DC, Tenbury: Independent (Bruton) 44, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 13, Labour 5. Independent gain from Conservative.
Middlesbrough UA, Ladgate: Independent (Platt) 30, Labour 25, Conservative 18, Independent (Grange) 14, Independent (Hoban) 10, Liberal Democrats 3. Independent gain from Labour.
Sheffield MBC, Firth Park: Labour 58, Conservative 20, Green 14, No Description 5, Liberal Democrats 3.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Sept 15, 2021 21:04:33 GMT
EALING LBC; Hobbayne
Labour β 52%
Conservative β 24%
Green β 18%
Liberal Democrat β 5%
TUSC β 1%
MALVERN HILLS DC; Tenbury
Conservative β 55%
Independent β 19%
Labour β 15%
Liberal Democrat β 11%
MIDDLESBROUGH UA; Ladgate
Labour β 42%
Conservative β 24%
GRAINGE, Tony (Independent) β 12%
PLATT, Sharon (Independent) β 10%
Liberal Democrat β 6%
HOBAN, Vic (Independent) β 6%
SHEFFIELD MBC; Firth Park
Labour β 60%
Conservative - 21%
Green β 12%
Liberal Democrat β 4%
No Description -3%
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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2021 21:21:35 GMT
Ealing, Hobbayne. Lab 53, Con 26, Green 11, LD 9, TUSC 1
Malvern Hills, Tenbury. Ind 40. Con 37, Lab 13, LD 10
Middlesbrough, Ladgate. Lab 30, Grainge 27, Con 21, Platt 15, Hoban 5, LD 2
Sheffield, Firth Park. Lab 61, Con 22, Green 9, LD 4, Ind 4
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