Prediction Competition - September 2021

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Sept 17, 2021 12:41:14 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations to Iain for the week's win in a difficult time and to Robert for maintaing his comfortable lead for the month so far. My third place for the week makes a minor contribution towards a climb back after last week's disaster, but if I had followed my gut instinct in Sheffield I could have made a big stride towards wiping out that sixty point loss from last week. Next week be more courageous! (and fall off a cliff, I know).

I've only dropped 100 points behind you this week, so I had a quite good week in the scheme of things.

[iainbhx]

I wish I'd gone with my original Middlesbrough prediction, but I'm quite pleased otherwise, especially about my Tenbury hunch.

[andrewp]

I wish I’d gone for a more convincing win for the Independent in Tenbury. My gut was that she would win easily, but I hedged my bets a little.

[finsobruce]

Sept 17, 2021 17:31:04 GMT iainbhx said:

I wish I'd gone with my original Middlesbrough prediction, but I'm quite pleased otherwise, especially about my Tenbury hunch.

Nothing like a good Tenbury hunch, especially with excellent company and a house red.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Soham North
Liberal Democrat – 47.1%
Conservative – 46.9%
Labour – 4%
Green – 2%

EAST DEVON DC; Exe Valley
Liberal Democrats – 54.1%
Conservative 42%
Labour – 3.9%

EPSOM & EWELL DC; Cuddington
Residents Association of Cuddington – 59%
Liberal Democrats – 20%
Conservative – 13%
Labour – 8%

HAMMERSMITH & FULHAM LBC; Wormholt & White City
Labour - 67.3%
Conservative – 14.7%
Liberal Democrats – 9.9%
Green – 8.1%

SOUTH LAKELAND DC; Kendal North
Liberal Democrat – 41%
Green - 28%
Conservative – 21%
Labour – 10%

CHARNWOOD BC; Shepshed West
The Conservative Party - 50%
Labour Party – 33%
The Green Party - 12.1%
Liberal Democrats - 4.9%

[johnloony]

I predict:

Charnwood: Con 42 Lab 22 Green 22 LD 14
East Cambs. Soham North: LD 50 Con 30 Green 13 Lab 7
East Devon Exe Valley: LD 60 Con 30 Lab 10
Epsom & Ewell Cuddington: RAC 64 LD 13 Lab 12 Con 11
Hammersmith & Fulham Wormholt & White City: Lab 76 Con 10 LD 8 Green 6
South Lakeland Kendal North: LD 48 Green 28 Lab 14 Con 10

[peterl]

EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Soham North
Liberal Democrat – 50.5%
Conservative – 43.5%
Labour – 3.5%
Green – 2.5%

EAST DEVON DC; Exe Valley
Liberal Democrats – 51.2%
Conservative 44.3%
Labour – 4.5%

EPSOM & EWELL DC; Cuddington
Residents Association of Cuddington – 62.5%
Liberal Democrats – 22.5%
Conservative – 9%
Labour – 6%

HAMMERSMITH & FULHAM LBC; Wormholt & White City
Labour - 65.4%
Conservative – 17.6%
Green – 8.8%
Liberal Democrats – 8.2%

Going to be a little bold with this one.

SOUTH LAKELAND DC; Kendal North
Green - 36%
Liberal Democrat – 32%
Conservative – 24%
Labour – 8%

CHARNWOOD BC; Shepshed West
The Conservative Party - 43%
Labour Party – 36%
The Green Party - 14%
Liberal Democrats - 7%

[Richard Cromwell]

Soham North, East Cambridgeshire

CON	51%
LD	45%
GRN	3%
LAB	2%

Exe Valley, East Devon

CON	57%
LD	42%
LAB	1%

Cuddington, Epsom & Ewell

Residents	64%
LD	16%
CON	13%
LAB	7%

Wormholt & White City, Hammersmith & Fulham

LAB	65%
CON	14%
GRN	13%
LD	8%

Kendal North, South Lakeland

GRN	32%
LD	31%
CON	30%
LAB	7%

Shepshed West, Charnwood

CON	51%
LAB	33%
GRN	12%
LD	4%

[andykernow]

EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Soham North - LD Hold
Liberal Democrat – 42%
Conservative – 36%
Green – 14%
Labour – 8%


EAST DEVON DC; Exe Valley - LD Hold
Liberal Democrats – 53%
Conservative 42%
Labour – 5%

EPSOM & EWELL DC; Cuddington - Residents Hold
Residents Association of Cuddington – 70%%
Liberal Democrats – 13%
Conservative – 9%
Labour – 8%

HAMMERSMITH & FULHAM LBC; Wormholt & White City - Lab Hold
Labour - 67%
Green - 13%
Conservative – 12%
Liberal Democrats – 8%

SOUTH LAKELAND DC; Kendal North - LD Hold
Liberal Democrat - 43%
Green - 36%
Conservative – 11%
Labour – 10%

CHARNWOOD BC; Shepshed West - Con Hold
The Conservative Party - 45%
Labour Party – 33%
The Green Party - 14%
Liberal Democrats - 8%

[Tony Otim]

East Cambs: Con 44.4; LD 40.3; Grn 8.0; Lab 7.3
East Devon: LD 49.6; Con 42.3; Lab 8.1
Epsom & Ewell: Res 65.8; Con 13.4; LD 11.6; Lab 9.2
Hammersmith & Fulham: Lab 68.5; Con 15.2; LD 9.1; Grn 7.2
South Lakeland: LD 39.4; GRn 33.5; Con 18.6; Lab 8.6
Charnwood: Con 47.7; Lab 27.2; Grn 16.5; LD 8.6

[andrewp]

Charnwood, Shepshed West. Con 53, Lab 30, Green 10, LD 7
East Cambridgeshire, Soham North, Con 43, LD 41, Lab 9, Green 7
East Devon, Exe Valley LD 49, Con 45, Lab 6
Epsom and Ewell, Cuddington. Res 66, Con 13, LD 12, Lab 9
Hammersmith and Fulham, Wormholt and White City, Lab 67, Con 15, LD 11, Green 7
South Lakeland, Kendal North. LD 45, Green 25: Con 19, Lab 11

[Deleted]

Shepshed West (Charnwood): Con 48 Lab 40 Grn 7 LD 5
Soham North (E Cambs): LD 44 Con 40 Grn 12 Lab 4
Exe Valley (E Devon): LD 48 C 45 Lab 7
Cuddington (Epsom & Ewell): Res 66 Con 15 LD 15 Lab 4
Wormholt & White City (Hammersmith & Fulham): Lab 70 Con 15 LD 10 Grn 5
Kendal North (South Lakeland): LD 45 Grn 29 Con 17 Lab 8

[greenhert]

Charnwood DC, Shepshed West: Conservative 50, Labour 39, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 5.
East Cambridgeshire DC, Soham North: Liberal Democrats 46, Conservative 42, Green 6, Labour 6.
East Devon DC, Exe Valley: Conservative 47, Liberal Democrats 45, Labour 8. Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats.
Epsom & Ewell BC, Cuddington: Residents Association of Cuddington 67, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 13, Labour 5.
Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Wormholt & White City: Labour 68, Conservative 13, Green 11, Liberal Democrats 8.
South Lakeland DC, Kendal North: Green 42, Liberal Democrats 38, Conservative 16, Labour 4. Green gain from Liberal Democrats.

[Robert Waller]

Soham North (E Cambs): LD 43 Con 42 Grn 7 Lab 8
Exe Valley (E Devon): LD 49 C 47 Lab 4
Cuddington (Epsom & Ewell): Res 65 Con 15 LD 15 Lab 5
Wormholt & White City (Hammersmith & Fulham): Lab 68 Con 15 LD 8 Grn 9
Kendal North (South Lakeland): LD 50 Grn 25 Con 20 Lab 5
Shepshed West (Charnwood): Con 50 Lab 34 Grn 7 LD 9

[Toylyyev]

Charnwood BC, Shepshed West:
Conservative 47, Labour 30, Liberal Democrat 5, Green 18.

East Cambridgeshire DC, Soham North:
Conservative 37, Labour 12, Liberal Democrat 45, Green 6.

East Devon DC, Exe Valley:
Conservative 50, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 45.

Epsom & Ewell DC, Cuddington:
Conservative 8, Labour 8, Liberal Democrat 15, Residents Association of Cuddington 69.

Hammersmith and Fulham LBC, Wormholt and White City:
Conservative 27, Labour 53, Liberal Democrat 8, Green 12.

South Lakeland DC, Kendal North:
Conservative 17, Labour 6.1, Liberal Democrat 38.5, Green 38.4.

[yellowperil]

Charnwood,Shepshed  W: Con 50, Lab 28, LD 7, GP 15. 
East Cambs, Soham N: Con 43, Lab 4, LD 47, GP 6.
East Devon, Exe Valley: Con 49, Lab 11, LD 40.
Epsom& Ewell, Cuddington: Con 11, Lab 6, LD 13, RAC 70.
Hammersmith & Fulham,Wormholt & White City: Con 16, Lab 70, LD 6, GP 8.
South Lakeland, Kendal N: Con 18, Lab 6, LD 40, GP 36. 

[rightleaning]

Soham North (E Cambs): LD 45, C 42, Gn 7, Lab 6
Exe Valley (E Devon): LD 51, C 45, Lab 4
Cuddington (Epsom & Ewell): Res 67, C 16, LD 12, Lab 5
Wormholt & White City (Hammersmith & Fulham): Lab 60, C 21, LD 10, Gn 9
Kendal North (South Lakeland): LD 42, Gn 32, C 20, Lab 6
Shepshed West (Charnwood): C 48, Lab 32, Gn 11, LD 9

[iainbhx]

Charnwood BC, Shepshed West Con 46, Lab 35, LDm 10, Grn 9
East Cambridgeshire DC, Soham North, Con 40, LDm 38, Grn 14, Lab 8
Epsom & Ewell DC, Cuddington: Res 67, LDm 15 Con 10 Lab 8
East Devon DC, Exe Valley: LDm 50, Con 45, Lab 5
Hammersmith and Fulham LBC, Wormholt and White City: Lab 65, Grn 16, Con 12, LDm 7
South Lakeland DC, Kendal North. LDm 37, Green 34: Con 22, Lab 7

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, with agbutler missing. All on time, with Richard Cromwell receiving 1 fault for going over in East Cambridgeshire and European Lefty and Tony Otim receiving 1 and 0.1 respectively for going under and over in South Lakeland.

Shepshed West, Charnwood: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (peterl) to 23% (andrewp).
Soham North, East Cambridgeshire: 10 Liberal Democrat hold, with andrewp, iainbhx, Richard Cromwell and Tony Otim Conservative gain.
Exe Valley, East Devon: 10 Liberal Democrat hold, with greenhert, Richard Cromwell, Toylyyev and Yellow Peril Conservative gain.
Cuddington, Epsom and Ewell: 100% Residents Association of Cuddington hold, with majorities ranging from 39% (formerly known as alien8ted, now the abbreviated DHAA because that's a long name to type out every time!) to 57% (andykernow and Yellow Peril).
Wormholt and White City, Hammersmith and Fulham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 26% (Toylyyev) to 66% (johnloony).
Kendal North, South Lakeland: 11 Liberal Democrat hold, with greenhert, peterl and Richard Cromwell Green gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y7lEYcVQEyVADamIwDt_XCymz_qzcojEHYRKqsJz6tc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to Tony for a really excellent week and to Robert who still manages to stay comfortably ahead for the month even after for him a rather indifferent week.Of course I am still failing to make up the ground lost by my silly typing error 2 weeks ago- without that I could have been in a very close second place rather than languishing back in sixth-Doh!