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Post by yellowperil on Sept 24, 2021 12:19:31 GMT
CHARNWOOD Shepshed West WILLIAMS, Ian (Conservative) 511 ROBERTS, Myriam Rebecca (Labour) 316 HOUNSOME, John (The Green Party) 302 BROOKES-DUNCAN, Katy (Lib Dem) 44 Surprised this one hasn't had some comment, Labour/Greens combined clearly outpolling the Tories in what isn't the most obvious place for that to happen. It does demonstrate all the usual problems for the anti- Tory vote - in this case, Labour still just in second place but momentum with the Greens. Had the LibDem ,for instance , stood down in favour of the Green it might have been enough to put the Greens into second, but who knows, and for any chance of overtaking the Tories using FPTP one of Labour or the Green would have had to stand down, and I can't see either of those happening. Would be interesting in a hypothetical AV vote, though. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 24, 2021 12:27:47 GMT
Of course the Greens will think they have a chance of winning it next time on that result, rather as with Labour after yesterday's Devon contest.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2021 12:28:11 GMT
I met the Labour candidate at a pro-EU event once; she said Shepshed was basically the swing area of Loughborough constituency and whoever won the town usually wins the seat. The Greens clearly have some momentum in Charnwood at the moment, presumably off the back of a combination of a particular local issue and a strong campaign
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 24, 2021 13:46:02 GMT
Hillsborough Stadium isn't actually in the suburb of Hillsborough but in neighbouring Owlerton. Oi! It's in Wadsley Bridge. Owlerton is the other side of Hillsborough Park, almost a mile away. The Wednesday Ground became known as the Owlerton Ground only because the tram there was the Owlerton service, running through Owlerton, along Parkside Road, and returning through Hillsborough along Middlewood Road, verses the Hillsborough service which went the other way. Yes, I have always thought "Wadsley Bridge Athletic" would be a more accurate name for the local football club. Many years ago before the days of Health and Safety me and a bunch of school friends spent a couple of weekends wading around in the River Don at Wadsley Bridge removing assorted rubbish.. Happy Days! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 24, 2021 18:58:24 GMT
Oi! It's in Wadsley Bridge. Owlerton is the other side of Hillsborough Park, almost a mile away. The Wednesday Ground became known as the Owlerton Ground only because the tram there was the Owlerton service, running through Owlerton, along Parkside Road, and returning through Hillsborough along Middlewood Road, verses the Hillsborough service which went the other way. Yes, I have always thought "Wadsley Bridge Athletic" would be a more accurate name for the local football club. Many years ago before the days of Health and Safety me and a bunch of school friends spent a couple of weekends wading around in the River Don at Wadsley Bridge removing assorted rubbish.. Happy Days! Maybe if they'd been formed there that would have been their name. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 24, 2021 19:20:43 GMT
Yes, I have always thought "Wadsley Bridge Athletic" would be a more accurate name for the local football club. Many years ago before the days of Health and Safety me and a bunch of school friends spent a couple of weekends wading around in the River Don at Wadsley Bridge removing assorted rubbish.. Happy Days! Maybe if they'd been formed there that would have been their name. Well, true enough! |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 24, 2021 22:59:06 GMT
I met the Labour candidate at a pro-EU event once; she said Shepshed was basically the swing area of Loughborough constituency and whoever won the town usually wins the seat. The Greens clearly have some momentum in Charnwood at the moment, presumably off the back of a combination of a particular local issue and a strong campaign It is a down-market scruff-arsed area (or was when I knew it) and fairly Labour. If Labour can't win and hold places like this fairly easily it is in serious long-term trouble. |
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 25, 2021 5:38:27 GMT
Surprised this one hasn't had some comment, Labour/Greens combined clearly outpolling the Tories in what isn't the most obvious place for that to happen. It does demonstrate all the usual problems for the anti- Tory vote - in this case, Labour still just in second place but momentum with the Greens. Had the LibDem ,for instance , stood down in favour of the Green it might have been enough to put the Greens into second, but who knows, and for any chance of overtaking the Tories using FPTP one of Labour or the Green would have had to stand down, and I can't see either of those happening. Would be interesting in a hypothetical AV vote, though. A lot of the Green vote will be NOTA. It is as anti-Labour as anti-Conservative - in many cases more so. No Green candidate, then lower turnout. AV vote and it doesn’t transfer. Surely any Liberal should have absorbed long ago that the majority of their pre-coalition vote was either NOTA or tactical. I think many Green Party activists are still suffering from a similar delusion. As soon as they get a sniff of power voters will desert en masse for some other dumping ground for general alienation and dissatisfaction. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 25, 2021 8:00:32 GMT
It does demonstrate all the usual problems for the anti- Tory vote - in this case, Labour still just in second place but momentum with the Greens. Had the LibDem ,for instance , stood down in favour of the Green it might have been enough to put the Greens into second, but who knows, and for any chance of overtaking the Tories using FPTP one of Labour or the Green would have had to stand down, and I can't see either of those happening. Would be interesting in a hypothetical AV vote, though. A lot of the Green vote will be NOTA. It is as anti-Labour as anti-Conservative - in many cases more so. No Green candidate, then lower turnout. AV vote and it doesn’t transfer. Surely any Liberal should have absorbed long ago that the majority of their pre-coalition vote was either NOTA or tactical. I think many Green Party activists are still suffering from a similar delusion. As soon as they get a sniff of power voters will desert en masse for some other dumping ground for general alienation and dissatisfaction. A substantial part of any party's vote is negative. A lot of Labour votes are more anti- Tory than pro-Labour, and an awful lot of Conservatives vote that way because they are scared shit of Labour coming to power if they don't. A FPTP electoral system reinforces that way of thinking but I fear it wouldn't entirely vanish if there was a proportional one. If anyone in the two big Ugly Sisters believe that people vote for them because of their wonderful policies or the quality of the candidates on offer, they are equally deluded. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2021 9:22:10 GMT
Of course the Greens will think they have a chance of winning it next time on that result, rather as with Labour after yesterday's Devon contest. And they both may well be right! |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 25, 2021 14:07:51 GMT
It does demonstrate all the usual problems for the anti- Tory vote - in this case, Labour still just in second place but momentum with the Greens. Had the LibDem ,for instance , stood down in favour of the Green it might have been enough to put the Greens into second, but who knows, and for any chance of overtaking the Tories using FPTP one of Labour or the Green would have had to stand down, and I can't see either of those happening. Would be interesting in a hypothetical AV vote, though. A lot of the Green vote will be NOTA. It is as anti-Labour as anti-Conservative - in many cases more so. No Green candidate, then lower turnout. AV vote and it doesn’t transfer. Surely any Liberal should have absorbed long ago that the majority of their pre-coalition vote was either NOTA or tactical. I think many Green Party activists are still suffering from a similar delusion. As soon as they get a sniff of power voters will desert en masse for some other dumping ground for general alienation and dissatisfaction. Polls regularly showed in that period that over 40% of people would vote Lib Dem "if they thought they could win" and the vote in third place LAB CON marginals was often over 15%, despite being much suppressed by the campaigns of the others. No-one knows what would happen to the vote for the LAB CON cartel if we had PR, but since neither of them can ever manage to command the votes of a majority of British voters they don't have much to crow about |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 25, 2021 14:13:25 GMT
A lot of the Green vote will be NOTA. It is as anti-Labour as anti-Conservative - in many cases more so. No Green candidate, then lower turnout. AV vote and it doesn’t transfer. Surely any Liberal should have absorbed long ago that the majority of their pre-coalition vote was either NOTA or tactical. I think many Green Party activists are still suffering from a similar delusion. As soon as they get a sniff of power voters will desert en masse for some other dumping ground for general alienation and dissatisfaction. Polls regularly showed in that period that over 40% of people would vote Lib Dem "if they thought they could win" and the vote in third place LAB CON marginals was often over 15%, despite being much suppressed by the campaigns of the others. No-one knows what would happen to the vote for the LAB CON cartel if we had PR, but since neither of them can ever manage to command the votes of a majority of British voters they don't have much to crow about Yet somehow the 40% "who would vote Lib Dem if they thought they could win" never materialised when PR elections were introduced for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and the London Assembly. PR for Westminster would be an existential threat to the Lib Dems. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2021 15:02:54 GMT
Polls regularly showed in that period that over 40% of people would vote Lib Dem "if they thought they could win" and the vote in third place LAB CON marginals was often over 15%, despite being much suppressed by the campaigns of the others. No-one knows what would happen to the vote for the LAB CON cartel if we had PR, but since neither of them can ever manage to command the votes of a majority of British voters they don't have much to crow about Yet somehow the 40% "who would vote Lib Dem if they thought they could win" never materialised when PR elections were introduced for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and the London Assembly. PR for Westminster would be an existential threat to the Lib Dems. I'm not sure it would but it would force them to work out what they actually believe in rather than acting as a NOTA dumping ground or a tactical vote for Home Counties lefties |
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 25, 2021 15:55:18 GMT
Polls regularly showed in that period that over 40% of people would vote Lib Dem "if they thought they could win" and the vote in third place LAB CON marginals was often over 15%, despite being much suppressed by the campaigns of the others. No-one knows what would happen to the vote for the LAB CON cartel if we had PR, but since neither of them can ever manage to command the votes of a majority of British voters they don't have much to crow about Yet somehow the 40% "who would vote Lib Dem if they thought they could win" never materialised when PR elections were introduced for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and the London Assembly. PR for Westminster would be an existential threat to the Lib Dems. I think existential threat is a little over the top. The Liberals have a strong core vote. However it’s likely they would be the sixth party in a 6 party system like Germany’s. |
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Post by owainsutton on Sept 25, 2021 17:24:06 GMT
Polls regularly showed in that period that over 40% of people would vote Lib Dem "if they thought they could win" and the vote in third place LAB CON marginals was often over 15%, despite being much suppressed by the campaigns of the others. No-one knows what would happen to the vote for the LAB CON cartel if we had PR, but since neither of them can ever manage to command the votes of a majority of British voters they don't have much to crow about Yet somehow the 40% "who would vote Lib Dem if they thought they could win" never materialised when PR elections were introduced for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and the London Assembly. PR for Westminster would be an existential threat to the Lib Dems. This is why the party policy for Westminster is AV rather than actual PR? And that 40% probably is "would vote for the Lib Dems if they were the only ones that could defeat the incumbent in {constituency}, under FPTP"? |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 25, 2021 17:50:33 GMT
Polls regularly showed in that period that over 40% of people would vote Lib Dem "if they thought they could win" and the vote in third place LAB CON marginals was often over 15%, despite being much suppressed by the campaigns of the others. No-one knows what would happen to the vote for the LAB CON cartel if we had PR, but since neither of them can ever manage to command the votes of a majority of British voters they don't have much to crow about Yet somehow the 40% "who would vote Lib Dem if they thought they could win" never materialised when PR elections were introduced for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and the London Assembly. PR for Westminster would be an existential threat to the Lib Dems. Well, we got good representation in all those until we cocked things up in 2010,allowing for the crowded field with the Nats. In terms of existential threat at Westminster, we would have to be below 2% to be below where we are now in terms of seats. I don't think that would happen |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 25, 2021 17:53:28 GMT
Yet somehow the 40% "who would vote Lib Dem if they thought they could win" never materialised when PR elections were introduced for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and the London Assembly. PR for Westminster would be an existential threat to the Lib Dems. This is why the party policy for Westminster is AV rather than actual PR? And that 40% probably is "would vote for the Lib Dems if they were the only ones that could defeat the incumbent in {constituency}, under FPTP"? Party Policy for Westminster is STV and has never been AV. That was just Clegg's policy for one referendum. |
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Post by owainsutton on Sept 25, 2021 18:24:41 GMT
This is why the party policy for Westminster is AV rather than actual PR? And that 40% probably is "would vote for the Lib Dems if they were the only ones that could defeat the incumbent in {constituency}, under FPTP"? Party Policy for Westminster is STV and has never been AV. That was just Clegg's policy for one referendum. OK, ta. I'd been misguided by local Lib Dems who defend Clegg's choice by saying "he could argue for that because it was because it was in the GE2010 manifesto". Which, now I've checked, is bollocks. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 25, 2021 18:32:35 GMT
Party Policy for Westminster is STV and has never been AV. That was just Clegg's policy for one referendum. OK, ta. I'd been misguided by local Lib Dems who defend Clegg's choice by saying "he could argue for that because it was because it was in the GE2010 manifesto". Which, now I've checked, is bollocks. It was all he managed to get out of the Tories in the coalition agreement. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 25, 2021 18:45:38 GMT
Party Policy for Westminster is STV and has never been AV. That was just Clegg's policy for one referendum. OK, ta. I'd been misguided by local Lib Dems who defend Clegg's choice by saying "he could argue for that because it was because it was in the GE2010 manifesto". Which, now I've checked, is bollocks. It was chosen because that’s what could be agreed with the Tories, and because it was in the Labour manifesto (so it was foolishly assumed they would campaign in favour). |
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