Post by nelson on Sept 16, 2021 10:11:13 GMT
One of the characteristic features of the Norwegian electoral system is that it makes it hard to eliminate the small parties because their vote is so concentrated (Greens, Red and Venstre in the big cities and KrF in the Bible Belt in the SW) that they always get constituency seats.
Red got four constituency seats, and would have held at least three of them if they'd dropped below the threshold. The Liberals (Venstre), the Greens and KrF got three each.
The contiguous Norwegian Bible Belt is located in the SW and includes the western part of Aust-Agder, all of Vest-Agder and the southern part of Rogaland. In addition big parts of rural Hordaland (the county Bergen is located in) is so-called "Bedehus Norge" (litt. prayer house Norway) with lots of meeting houses for Lutheran layman movements and evangelical free churches.
KrF got constituency seat in Vest-Agder, Rogaland and Hordaland, but lost their constituency seat in Aust-Agder, which is a fairly small constituency.
The lack of any realistic chance of Solberg hanging on is most likely killed KrF's chance of passing the threshold (no reason for Høyre voters to give them tactical votes). The fundis in The Christians got 0.4%, which would have saved them, but that was only +0.1% from last time and I think many of the hardline fundis " would just stay home rather than vote for the current KrF if they hadn't got their own micro party.
The Democrats got their best result in "heart of the Bible Belt" Vest-Agder with 2.6% and may also have harmed KrF a bit, far from all of their base are on board with their humanitarian refugee policy, some would prefer "Christians only and not too many of them".
KrF recently decided against moving to the red-green block in order to appeal to young families as their then leader Knut Hareide wanted, and I'm not sure that would have been an electorally succesful strategy anyway. But they're now firmly tied to their declining traditional SoCon base.
KrF's core voters are dying off and once they drop consistently below 3% they won't get tactical votes and will then gradually lose their constituency seats one by one. So they're the most likely of the small parties to disappear imo, but it may take another 20 years before they lose their last constituency seat. Though Socialist Left being so close to a generic European Green party might make it hard to sustain the Greens over time, even if they wanted to they can't really move right because the Liberals has the LibGreen vote.
Green parties have a big enough niche in Finland and Sweden, which both "lack" a moderate left wing party in-between the SocDems and the far left and in the case of Finland also an established SocLib party, but in Norway and Denmark with both green-ish SocLib parties and green-ish moderate left wing parties there isn't much space for them to occupy.
Red got four constituency seats, and would have held at least three of them if they'd dropped below the threshold. The Liberals (Venstre), the Greens and KrF got three each.
The contiguous Norwegian Bible Belt is located in the SW and includes the western part of Aust-Agder, all of Vest-Agder and the southern part of Rogaland. In addition big parts of rural Hordaland (the county Bergen is located in) is so-called "Bedehus Norge" (litt. prayer house Norway) with lots of meeting houses for Lutheran layman movements and evangelical free churches.
KrF got constituency seat in Vest-Agder, Rogaland and Hordaland, but lost their constituency seat in Aust-Agder, which is a fairly small constituency.
The lack of any realistic chance of Solberg hanging on is most likely killed KrF's chance of passing the threshold (no reason for Høyre voters to give them tactical votes). The fundis in The Christians got 0.4%, which would have saved them, but that was only +0.1% from last time and I think many of the hardline fundis " would just stay home rather than vote for the current KrF if they hadn't got their own micro party.
The Democrats got their best result in "heart of the Bible Belt" Vest-Agder with 2.6% and may also have harmed KrF a bit, far from all of their base are on board with their humanitarian refugee policy, some would prefer "Christians only and not too many of them".
KrF recently decided against moving to the red-green block in order to appeal to young families as their then leader Knut Hareide wanted, and I'm not sure that would have been an electorally succesful strategy anyway. But they're now firmly tied to their declining traditional SoCon base.
KrF's core voters are dying off and once they drop consistently below 3% they won't get tactical votes and will then gradually lose their constituency seats one by one. So they're the most likely of the small parties to disappear imo, but it may take another 20 years before they lose their last constituency seat. Though Socialist Left being so close to a generic European Green party might make it hard to sustain the Greens over time, even if they wanted to they can't really move right because the Liberals has the LibGreen vote.
Green parties have a big enough niche in Finland and Sweden, which both "lack" a moderate left wing party in-between the SocDems and the far left and in the case of Finland also an established SocLib party, but in Norway and Denmark with both green-ish SocLib parties and green-ish moderate left wing parties there isn't much space for them to occupy.
