nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 12, 2021 19:05:21 GMT
The results: valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2021The results of the early vote will be published immediately after the polls close at 9pm local time (one hour ahead of the UK), but they'll likely underestimate the Centre and Christian Democrat vote (both parties have a high share of 50+ rural voters and low support in the big cities) and overestimate the Greens, Red and Socialist Left. |
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 8:52:54 GMT
Looks like the left will be back in some shape or form. The getting over the threshold for smaller parties will be interesting.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 9:55:22 GMT
Looks like the left will be back in some shape or form. The getting over the threshold for smaller parties will be interesting. That much is basically a given and has been for a long time, which has made this campaign a bit boring. It's either going to be a one-party Labour government (likely) or a Labour-Centre coalition (unlikely). The only chance of a centre-right government is the Centre Party suddenly switching sides and Norwegian political culture doesn't allow for such dramatic post-election U-turns. Unfortunately the threshold game isn't that interesting either, Red and the Greens are among the winners of the election, the Liberals were saved by climate change becoming a top issue and everything points towards the Christian Democrats making it in on tactical votes. Meanwhile Progress has managed to squeeze their rivals for the right wing populist vote, The Democrats, which at one point polled a tad below 3% and looked like they had momentum. So it looks like all the established small parties will make it and none of the outsiders will, with Patient Focus getting a constituency seat in Finnmark being the most likely. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 16:29:31 GMT
More than 40% of the electorate have voted early and turnout was 78.2% in 2017, so the early votes will almost certainly make up more than half of the total, which should make the first prognosis quite reliable (even if the "young and urban" parties will likely be overrepresented while the "old and rural" parties will be underrepresented, and it'll be used to weigh the exit poll.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 19:03:29 GMT
Seat count in the prognosis:
Labour 47 (-2)
Conservatives 38 (-7)
Centre 26 (+7)
Progress 21 (-6)
Socialist Left 14 (+3)
Red 9 (+8)
Greens 7 (+6)
KrF 7 (-1)
Liberals 3 (-5)
Patient Focus 1 (+1)
Note: Based entirely on the early vote.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 19:04:59 GMT
Seat count in the prognosis: Labour 47 (-2) Conservatives 38 (-7) Centre 26 (+7) Progress 21 (-6) Socialist Left 14 (+3) Red 9 (+8) Greens 7 (+6) KrF 7 (-1) Liberals 3 (-5) Patient focus 1 (+1) So the Christian Democrats are in and the Liberals are below the threshold. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 19:07:37 GMT
The Democrats are at 1.2%, so far below the threshold
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 19:09:26 GMT
TV2's exit poll:
Labour 26.0%
Cons 20.4%
Centre 13.3%
Progress 10.9%
Socialist Left 7.9%
Red 4.7%
Liberals 4.4%
Greens 4.3%
Christian Democrats 3.9%
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 19:14:26 GMT
Looks like both of the small centre-right parties are dangerously close to the threshold, and the two small left parties are closer to it than expected.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 19:20:34 GMT
Also, it looks like we may get a Labour/Centre/Socialist Left majority, which will make government formation easier, although SocLeft and Labour will want a three party government, while Centre doesn't want SocLeft in the government and that'll likely still result in a one-party Labour government as the compromise. But a coalition becomes somewhat more likely if the three parties get a majority.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 19:24:28 GMT
With 59.5% counted the small parties are at:
Red 4.7%
Greens 4.2%
Liberals 4.2%
Christian Democrats 4.0%
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 13, 2021 19:38:13 GMT
Also, it looks like we may get a Labour/Centre/Socialist Left majority, which will make government formation easier, although SocLeft and Labour will want a three party government, while Centre doesn't want SocLeft in the government and that'll likely still result in a one-party Labour government as the compromise. But a coalition becomes somewhat more likely if the three parties get a majority. What is the difference between Red and the Socialist Left? |
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 13, 2021 20:17:55 GMT
Also, it looks like we may get a Labour/Centre/Socialist Left majority, which will make government formation easier, although SocLeft and Labour will want a three party government, while Centre doesn't want SocLeft in the government and that'll likely still result in a one-party Labour government as the compromise. But a coalition becomes somewhat more likely if the three parties get a majority. What is the difference between Red and the Socialist Left? Red is more overtly marxist with a distinct communist wing. Socialist Left is lerhaps more red green but they would both be well to the left of Labour. My Norwegian friend who works in banking and has a degree in Arabic so talks to oil sheiks frequently, votes Socialist Left! |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 13, 2021 20:19:35 GMT
What is the difference between Red and the Socialist Left? Red is more overtly marxist with a distinct communist wing. Socialist Left is lerhaps more red green but they would both be well to the left of Labour. My Norwegian friend who works in banking and has a degree in Arabic so talks to oil sheiks frequently, votes Socialist Left! did they split at some point or is one the remnant of a communist party or something like that? I thought Red were more recent so you'd sort of expect them to be more green leaning. Or not. |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 13, 2021 20:26:55 GMT
With 78.6% counted:
Labour: 26.2%
Conservative: 20.5%
Centre Party: 13.9%
Progress Party: 11.9%
Socialist Left: 7.3%
Red Party: 4.6%
Liberal: 4.1%.
Christian Democrats: 4.0%
Green: 3.8%
All others: 3.9% approx. (total)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2021 20:40:15 GMT
Pasientfokus on course for a seat in Finnmark, but apparently also closest to losing a seat
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 20:43:48 GMT
With 78.6% counted: Labour: 26.2% Conservative: 20.5% Centre Party: 13.9% Progress Party: 11.9% Socialist Left: 7.3% Red Party: 4.6% Liberal: 4.1%. Christian Democrats: 4.0% Green: 3.8% All others: 3.9% approx. (total) Lord u would have thought from some of the headlines in lefty media that Norway was going green..looks like the Norwegians aren't heading that way |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 13, 2021 20:46:38 GMT
The Norwegian Greens' problem is that unlike the Red Party, they are not picking up extra support in rural counties, whereas the Red Party are even in areas largely devoid of their voters (the rural northern counties close to and within the Arctic Circle, for example).
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 20:54:39 GMT
The Norwegian Greens' problem is that unlike the Red Party, they are not picking up extra support in rural counties, whereas the Red Party are even in areas largely devoid of their voters (the rural northern counties close to and within the Arctic Circle, for example). Also I think while in public Norwegians will say we worry about the planet...in the privacy of ballot box the attraction of all that oil is too tasteful.. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 13, 2021 20:55:12 GMT
With 78.6% counted: Labour: 26.2% Conservative: 20.5% Centre Party: 13.9% Progress Party: 11.9% Socialist Left: 7.3% Red Party: 4.6% Liberal: 4.1%. Christian Democrats: 4.0% Green: 3.8% All others: 3.9% approx. (total) Lord u would have thought from some of the headlines in lefty media that Norway was going green..looks like the Norwegians aren't heading that way which media? I haven't been following the Norwegian election with the proper attention tbh. |
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