Norwegian parliamentary election 2021

[nelson]

The Norwegians are going to the polls on 13 September to elect a new Storting. 

The public broadcaster NRK published a so-called "super poll" two days ago based on interviews with 11,400 respondents. While Labour would get their worst result since 2001 if this became the election result, they and their allies are clearly ahead of the centre-right. So with less than a month to go it looks very difficult for Conservative PM Erna Solberg to remain in office. Four small parties are close to the 4% threshold (within the 3-5% range) and as usual their fate will be decisive. Centre have said they are willing to support a one-party Labour government to keep the left wing parties out, and that's probably the most likely result.

The poll with June results in parenthesis.

Red 4.9 (+ 0.7)
Socialist Left 6.9 (-0.9)
Labour 25.5 (+1.4)

Greens 4.3 (+0.6)
Centre 16.2 (-1.5)

Christian Democras 3.1 (-0.5)
Liberals 3.3 (+0.6)

Conservatives 21.1 (-1.9)
Progress 10.9 (+0.7)

[nelson]

Regional polls: www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Maling&filter=riks

[nelson]

New Kantar poll has Centre dropping 2.7 points to 13.7% and the Christian Democrats (KrF) well above the threshold on 5.1%. 

pro-Gahr Støre: 108
Labour 43
Centre 29
Socialist Left 16
Greens 11
Red 9

pro-Solberg: 61
Conservatives 37
Progress 13
Christian Democrats 9
Liberals 2

[nelson]

Interesting poll from Finnmark, the northernmost county and traditionally a Labour stronghold. Red is polling at five times their 2017 result and the Greens twice as high. Both of these traditionally heavily urban parties are going to have a breakthrough in parts of rural and small town Norway where they barely existed a few years ago. Centre is gaining, but not nearly as much as nationally and new healthcare parties are eating into the centre-right vote, both the Conservatives and Liberals have lost roughly half of their support.  

2017 results in parenthesis.

Red 7.2 (1.5)
Socialist Left 7.5 (8.8)
Greens 4.4 (2.1)

Labour 29.4 (32.0)
Centre 18.5 (14.9)

Christian Democrats 2.0 (2.1)
Liberals 2.2 (4.2)
Conservative 7.6 (14.4)

Progress 12.9 (18.0)
Democrats 1.4

Patient Focus 5.9

Others 0.3 (most of it going to the Health Party)

[maxque]

Who is Patient Focus? It sounds like a medical publication.

[nelson]

Aug 19, 2021 23:23:54 GMT maxque said:

Who is Patient Focus? It sounds like a medical publication.

Finnmark is quite large, nearly twice the size of the Highland council area, but only 76.000 live up there, 20.000 of those in Alta municipality in the western end which is growing and will soon have a third of the county's population and also has a proper airport. 

Pasientfokus is a local list that wants a new "three equal hospitals" healthcare structure with a new hospital in Alta (pop. 15.5k) with emergency unit, maternity ward and geriatric ward and a health clinic in Kautokeino in the Sami heartland in the interior. Right now there are emergency units and maternity wards in Kirkeness near the Russian border and Hammerfest on the north coast (pop. 9k, not growing much). They also want more patients to be treated within the region and not sent to the university hospital in Tromsø, and claim it'll be climate friendly to not move so many patients long distances by plane, they also have a lot of horror stories about medical malpractice. The other parties claim the hospital in Hammerfest will have to close without the patients from Alta and the interior and that there is no basis for three hospitals in a county with such a small population. Pasientfokus has no chance of getting one of the five constituency seats, but they'll get 20%+ in Alta. 

Finnmark has five of the 150 constituency seats which is a significant overrepresentation, since it only has about 1.5% of the population. It gets two seats assigned based on population but an additional three due to the so-called "area adjustment", as the biggest county in the nation. Finnmark only has 14.700 inhabitants per seat, while all other constituencies have between 27k and 34k.

No other constituency gain more than one seat by the area adjustment. 5 gain one seat, 5 none, 4 lose one seat and 2 lose two (Oslo and the surrounding Akershus).

Would be fun if Canada used a multi seat constituency model with area adjustment.

[nelson]

New poll from Respons Analyse has Centre crashing to 11% and no majority for Labour/Centre/Socialist Left. Centre no longer attract a sizable number of Conservative voters. 
www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/0GvynB/ny-vg-maaling-fullstendig-kollaps-for-vedum

Net voter movement between the parties with the estimate based on the previous poll in parenthesis.

From the centre-right to the red-green parties (incl. Centre) 131,000 (171,000)


Conservatives to Labour 36,000 (35,000)


Labour to Socialist Left 43,000 (35,000)

Labour to Greens 26,000 (12,000)

Labour to Centre 19,000 (42,000)

Labour to Red 15,000 (22,000)


Progress to Centre 32,000 (40,000)

Conservatives to Centre 12,000 (45,000)

Centre to Socialist Left 8,000

Centre to Red 8,000

[nelson]

The Centre Party tanking is potentially a game changer and might give Erna Solberg a chance to hang on, though the most likely outcome is still that the Labour vote hold up. Regardless, a Labour/Centre/Socialist Left majority seems less and less likely, which will lead to some very complicated government negotiations if Labour and its allies win.

In the last three years the centre-periphery cleavage dominated Norwegian politics with the municipal and regional reforms, centralisation and regulation being seen as attacks on the rural way of life and self-determination and issues of so-called district policy dominating, which caused the rural interests Centre Party to surge.

The Centre Party also dipped their toe in soft right wing populism on integration/immigration and "climate realism" and picked up some working class voters in the cities. They topped a few polls in winter and that led them to launch their leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum as a candidate for Prime Minister (almost always a bad move for a traditionally minor party). Many Norwegians find Vedum likable, but they don't really feel comfortable having a jovial chap nicknamed “the laughing farmer” actually running the country so the move backfired and led to increased media scrutiny and a more critical coverage of Vedum.

What happened at the start of the campaign was that the UN climate report elevated climate policy to the top issue and that the economic effects of the pandemic brought issues of social inequality back to the forefront. The left then had the good fortune that 28-year old salmon farming billionaire and property investor Gustav Witzøe complained in an interview about the wealth tax, which helped kick start the theme.

So the campaign is now firmly on the left's favourite terrain while the Centre Party has spent the last three years trying to portray the party's climate policy as more anti-green than it actually is. As the left rise in the polls the party's promise of keeping Socialist Left out of the government and deny any influence to the former Maoists in Red and the "radical" Greens seem increasingly unrealistic sending former Conservative and Progress voters in "the districts" back to their old parties.

Meanwhile the climate issue has saved the Liberals, which is the most green option on the centre-right and they’re now consistently above the threshold.

While a five party parliament (Socialist Left, Labour, Centre, Conservatives and Progress) and the elimination of all of the small parties looked liked a real possibility before the campaign started, it now seems fairly likely all minor parties will make it which complicates government formation.

What Solberg and the Conservatives are now hoping for is that the rise of the left will scare centrist voters away from Labour, which combined with the Liberals stabilising around 5%, rural voters returning “home” to the centre-right and the Christian Democrats surviving on tactical votes could give her a narrow majority.

Note: If Solberg seems close to making it and the Christian Democrats are polling above 3% they should be almost certain to pass the threshold on tactical votes, if a Labour government seems inevitable Conservative voters won’t bother helping the Christian Democrats.

[nelson]

The right wing populist Democrats are at 2.8% in new Sentio poll and were at 2.4% in the Kantar poll two days ago. The Democrats are basically a Norwegian version of the Danish People's Party (economically centrist/welfare chauvinist, anti-immigration, Islamophobic and pro-Zionist) with a bit more emphasis on SoCon issues and Christian values. They're led by businessman Geir Ugland Jacobsen (64), who was county leader for the Progress Party in Oslo to December last year when he was  expelled for being too radical and trying to undermine party leader Siv Jensen. 

The party will start to be mentioned independently in the polls when they are that close to 3% and get some media attention now which could lead to even more Progress voters defecting to them. Right now the vast majority of the wasted votes are from various small right wing parties such as the The Christians (Christian Right), The Industry and Business Party and The Capitalist Party (Libertarians). It'll be necessary for the mainstream centre-right to squeeze that vote to have a chance. 

The Sentio poll has both of the small centre-right parties just below the threshold and a narrow majority for Labour and the left wing without Centre. 

Left/Centre-left: 85
Labour 23.9 (45)
Socialist Left 8.8 (16)
Greens 7.2 (14)
Red 5.4 (10)

Centre 13.2 (25)

Centre-right: 59
Christian Democrats 3.9 (3)
Liberals 3.8 (2)
Conservatives 19.1 (36)
Progress 9.8 (18)

Democrats 2.8 (0)
Others 2.1 (0)

[Georg Ebner]

[nelson]

Aug 25, 2021 15:42:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Bad numbers for Solberg, leading Gahr Støre 2:1 on preferred PM was her main advantage going into the campaign. 

[nelson]

Now only two points between Labour and the Conservatives, and Centre is seemingly in free fall (but I think they probably have a floor around 10%). The numbers in the tweet are slightly inaccurate, but the two graphs are correct. 

[Deleted]

Aug 26, 2021 10:53:20 GMT nelson said:

Now only one point between Labour and the Conservatives, and Centre is seemingly in free fall (but I think they probably have a floor around 10%). 

Jesus....

[nelson]

Average of the six national polls from this week (from Norstat (2), Sentio, Kantar, Respons and Ipsos) with changes from last week's national polling average.   

Labour 24.92 (+1.69) / 45 (+1)   
Centre 12.27 (-1.53) / 22 (-3)
Socialist Left 8.77 (-0.1) / 16 (nc)

Greens 6.08 (+0.21) / 11 (+1)
Red 5.2 (+0.6) / 9 (+1)

Gahr Støre's preferred government:
Labour/Centre/Socialist Left 45.96 (-0.06) / 83 (-2)

Conservatives 19.93 (-0.7) / 36 (-1)
Progress 10.7 (+0.87) / 19 (+1)

Christian Democrats 3.58 (+0.08) / 3 (nc)
Liberals 4.2 (-0.3) / 8 (nc)

[nelson]

Norwegian broadcaster TV2 has asked Centre's county leaders why they think the party is tanking in the polls and they all point to the switch of issues from district policy and decentralisation to climate policy along with very negative media coverage. 

In their view the campaign has been dominated by unfair attacks on the party's climate policies and condemnation of the party as anti-green from all sides and the media casting them as the "big bad wolf" of the climate discussion (and given the party's position on wolf hunting that must hurt.. ), and that the national media have allowed the Socialist Left and the Greens to set the agenda and casting Vedum as "the fossil (fuel) man". 

They say that they had anticipated a correction to a lower level from the party's best polls, but that the drop is far worse than anyone expected. Besides climate policy several of them mention that it was a mistake to nominate a candidate for PM, that the Conservatives have copied a lot of Centre's policies for rural and peripheral areas ("district policy"), and that since they've taken voters from all parties, all the others have had an interest in attacking them which makes it hard for the party to change the narrative. 

What may save Centre is that the centre-right have to move the discussion to topics that are more favourable for them and almost all of those will be better for Centre, and that the party may be able to motivate some of their 2017 voters who are currently on the fence or don't intend to vote. 

[John Chanin]

Aug 24, 2021 22:09:12 GMT nelson said:

They're led by businessman Geir Ugland Jacobsen (64), who was county leader for the Progress Party in Oslo to December last year when he was  expelled for being too radial and trying to undermine party leader Siv Jensen. 

I like the idea of a “progress” party being radial.  Surely an oxymoron?

[finsobruce]

Aug 29, 2021 8:38:20 GMT John Chanin said:

Aug 24, 2021 22:09:12 GMT nelson said:

They're led by businessman Geir Ugland Jacobsen (64), who was county leader for the Progress Party in Oslo to December last year when he was  expelled for being too radial and trying to undermine party leader Siv Jensen. 

I like the idea of a “progress” party being radial.  Surely an oxymoron?

They have spent a long time going round in circles.

[nelson]

Aug 20, 2021 5:37:01 GMT nelson said:

Aug 19, 2021 23:23:54 GMT maxque said:

Who is Patient Focus? It sounds like a medical publication.

Finnmark is quite large, nearly twice the size of the Highland council area, but only 76.000 live up there, 20.000 of those in Alta municipality in the western end which is growing and will soon have a third of the county's population and also has a proper airport. 

Pasientfokus is a local list that wants a new "three equal hospitals" healthcare structure with a new hospital in Alta (pop. 15.5k) with emergency unit, maternity ward and geriatric ward and a health clinic in Kautokeino in the Sami heartland in the interior. Right now there are emergency units and maternity wards in Kirkeness near the Russian border and Hammerfest on the north coast (pop. 9k, not growing much). They also want more patients to be treated within the region and not sent to the university hospital in Tromsø, and claim it'll be climate friendly to not move so many patients long distances by plane, they also have a lot of horror stories about medical malpractice. The other parties claim the hospital in Hammerfest will have to close without the patients from Alta and the interior and that there is no basis for three hospitals in a county with such a small population. Pasientfokus has no chance of getting one of the five constituency seats, but they'll get 20%+ in Alta. 

Well, the latest county poll from Finnmark published on 1 September actually gave "Others" 18.7% and since that's likely to be 95%+ Pasientfokus votes it would be enough to give them a constituency seat. 

[nelson]

National prognosis based on the newest polls for each county and assuming similar turnout to 2017 with the prognosis from 1 September in parenthesis. This method has usually given the most accurate prediction of the final result and we're now so close to polling day that it's more interesting than national polling imo. Socialist Left above 9% for the first time, the Christian Democrats are above the threshold and it looks like Centre has stabilised. 

Labour 24.0 (24.8)

Conservatives 20.8 (21.1)

Progress 10.5 (10.7)

Socialist Left 9.1 (8.4) 

Centre 13.2 (13.1)

Christian Democrats 4.0 (3.5)

Liberals 4,7 (4,3)

Greens 5,3 (5,2)

Red 4.6 (5.0)

Others 3.8

[nelson]

Election day is tomorrow, but early voting has been high. 

The final county poll based prediction (which includes the average of multiple polls from some counties if they've been conducted within three days of each other).

Labour 24.6 (44)
Conservatives 20.2 (36)
Centre 12.6 (22)
Progress 11.9 (23)
Socialist Left 8.8 (14)

small parties: 

Greens 5.1 (8)
Red 4.8 (8)
Liberals 4.8 (7)
Christian Democrats 4.1 (7)
Others 3.2 (0)

80 seats for Labour/Centre/Socialist Left, five seats short of a majority. Which likely means Norway will get a Labour minority government since Centre won't join a coalition that's dependent on the "far left". Not as disastrous for Centre as in their worst polls, but their vote distribution isn't particularly effective and 22 seats would be a poor result. All the small parties make it in. The Democrats (which make up the majority of "Other") have seemingly been effectively squeezed by Progress and it would be a big surprise if they made it. Patient Focus should still have a chance in Finnmark. 

Will be interesting to see if the prognosis based on the county polls will get closest yet again.