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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 21:02:58 GMT
Lord u would have thought from some of the headlines in lefty media that Norway was going green..looks like the Norwegians aren't heading that way which media? I haven't been following the Norwegian election with the proper attention tbh. The guardian! Is norway going to go green a big article... One thing of interest there was a time a few years ago when people were saying social democracy in Europe is dying...this result and if German one pans out as it is going...is centre rightism dying...although probably in norway people felt time for change |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2021 21:04:28 GMT
As an interesting aside, all 39 seats of the Sàmi parliament are being elected as well. Th Norwegian Sàmi Association are out in front as usual, but the largest gain on current numbers (almost exlcusively early vote) is Nordkallotfolket who are up 5 seats to 8. The two most interesting things about them are a pledge against privatisation of land in Finnmark and that their policies specifically mention the Kven, an ethnic Finnish minority resident in northern Norway. The Progress Party, who favour the parliament's abolition, are currently +1 to 2 seats
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 21:06:10 GMT
With 59.5% counted the small parties are at: Red 4.7% Greens 4.2% Liberals 4.2% Christian Democrats 4.0% With 88% counted it's: Red 4.6% Liberals 4.2% Christian Democrats 4.0% Greens 3.7% Given that the remaining votes will mainly be from the big cities the Greens are probably save, but the Christian Democrats being right at the threshold at this point is a precarious position. |
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 21:09:28 GMT
With 85 percent red looks good over the line..but not completely safe..Liberal likewise..green and cds below...I did say say earlier on that the small ones crossing the line will be interesting!!
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 13, 2021 21:15:28 GMT
The Norwegian Greens' problem is that unlike the Red Party, they are not picking up extra support in rural counties, whereas the Red Party are even in areas largely devoid of their voters (the rural northern counties close to and within the Arctic Circle, for example). Also I think while in public Norwegians will say we worry about the planet...in the privacy of ballot box the attraction of all that oil is too tasteful.. And Socialist Left is really a red-green party so attracts those voters |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 21:18:09 GMT
The fundis in The Party The Christians (that is their actual name..) are at 0.4%, which is just 0.1 point higher than last time, so they aren't the main reason the Christian Democrats (KrF) are in trouble. They were expected to be able to get around 1.0%. So another flop from a micro party.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 13, 2021 21:18:15 GMT
which media? I haven't been following the Norwegian election with the proper attention tbh. The guardian! Is norway going to go green a big article... One thing of interest there was a time a few years ago when people were saying social democracy in Europe is dying...this result and if German one pans out as it is going...is centre rightism dying...although probably in norway people felt time for change I've just read the article. It's fairly circumspect about Green prospects I think, and shows how the fossil fuel debate was actually likely to blunt their prospects a bit. imho. As Mike hints the Red/greens likely to do better for that reason - not fundis. |
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 21:18:21 GMT
The new Labour prime minister is a millionaire, and put pressure on the nobel committee to refuse chinese dissidents the peace prize.. they ignored him.. raising a glass in China no doubt
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 21:19:43 GMT
Also I think while in public Norwegians will say we worry about the planet...in the privacy of ballot box the attraction of all that oil is too tasteful.. And Socialist Left is really a red-green party so attracts those voters Ah a green split...that will really save the world |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 21:41:32 GMT
With 59.5% counted the small parties are at: Red 4.7% Greens 4.2% Liberals 4.2% Christian Democrats 4.0% With 88% counted it's: Red 4.6% Liberals 4.2% Christian Democrats 4.0% Greens 3.7% Given that the remaining votes will mainly be from the big cities the Greens are probably save, but the Christian Democrats being right at the threshold at this point is a precarious position. We're at 93.4% now and the Christian Democrats are stuck at 3.9%. Given what's out I think it's now save to say they won't make it. The Greens are at 3.8% and still have a small chance if they do well from the remaining Oslo votes and uncounted early votes from people who were voting in a different municipality. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 22:01:33 GMT
With 85 percent red looks good over the line..but not completely safe..Liberal likewise..green and cds below...I did say say earlier on that the small ones crossing the line will be interesting!! And you were half right. The Liberals and Red were never in trouble, it's just that their electorate skews urban and the big cities count slower. The Greens underperformed their polls significantly, and that was a genuine surprise. The Christian Democrats polled around the threshold, but it looked most likely they'd make it based on the final county polls. But I think the lack of any real chance of Solberg hanging on hurt them, there was little reason for Conservative votes to lend them their vote if it couldn't save the government. |
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 22:07:10 GMT
With 85 percent red looks good over the line..but not completely safe..Liberal likewise..green and cds below...I did say say earlier on that the small ones crossing the line will be interesting!! You did, but it seemed a bit like a stab in the dark tbh given how the campaign had turned out. The Liberals and Red were never in trouble, it's just that their electorate skews urban and the big cities count slower. The Greens underperformed their polls significantly, and that was a genuine surprise. The Christian Democrats polled around the threshold, but it looked like they'd make it based on the final county votes, but I think the lack of any real chance of Solberg hanging on hurt them, there was little reason for Conservative votes to lend them their vote if it couldn't save the government. Thanks for calling me an amateur!! |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 22:09:26 GMT
The Greens and Christian Democrats (KrF) are both at 3.8% with 97.3% counted. KrF is dropping as one would expect but a bit surprising that the Greens aren't really gaining, I'd have expected them to at least get to 3.9%. Save to say neither party will pass the threshold now.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 13, 2021 22:45:59 GMT
With 98.8% counted, these are essentially the final seat totals of the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election:
Labour: 48 (-1)
Conservative: 36 (-9)
Centre: 28 (+9)
Progress: 21 (-6)
Socialist Left: 13 (+2)
Red: 8 (+7)
Liberal: 8 (+0)
Christian Democrats: 3 (-5; county seats only)
Green: 3 (+2; county seats only)
Patient Focus: 1 (+1; Finnmark county only).
Jonas Gahr Store (Labour/Arbeitpartiet) now effectively confirmed as Norway's next PM; government certain to include Centre and Socialist Left Parties as junior coalition parties.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 22:47:55 GMT
Doesn't look like the seat distribution will change anymore.
Centre-right: 68 (-20)
Conservatives 36 (-9)
Progress 21 (-6)
Liberals 8 (nc)
Christian Democrats 3 (-5)
Centre: 28 (+9)
Centre-left/Left: 72 (+10)
Labour 48 (-1)
Socialist Left 13 (+2)
Red 8 (+7)
Greens 3 (+2)
Others:
Patient focus 1 (+1)
and most importantly: Labour/Centre/Socialist Left: 89 (+10)
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 22:54:22 GMT
With 98.8% counted, these are essentially the final seat totals of the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election: Labour: 48 (-1) Conservative: 36 (-9) Centre: 28 (+9) Progress: 21 (-6) Socialist Left: 13 (+2) Red: 8 (+7) Liberal: 8 (+0) Christian Democrats: 3 (-5; county seats only) Green: 3 (+2; county seats only) Patient Focus: 1 (+1; Finnmark county only). Jonas Gahr Store (Labour/Arbeitpartiet) now effectively confirmed as Norway's next PM; government certain to include Centre and Socialist Left Parties as junior coalition parties. Strong left performance but people not willing to jump completely green!! On government side terrible libs who a while back look doomed are as u are....be interesting to see how things pan out...with oil exploration etc |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 23:00:11 GMT
The only chance of a centre-right government is the Centre Party suddenly switching sides and Norwegian political culture doesn't allow for such dramatic post-election U-turns. Conservatives-Progress-Centre actually have a narrow majority with 85 seats combined, so if the Norwegian political culture was (very..) different Centre could do some horse-trading. |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Sept 13, 2021 23:02:04 GMT
The only chance of a centre-right government is the Centre Party suddenly switching sides and Norwegian political culture doesn't allow for such dramatic post-election U-turns. Conservatives-Progress-Centre actually have a narrow majority with 85 seats combined, so if the Norwegian political culture was (very..) different Centre could do some horse-trading. For those of us with no knowledge of Norwegian politics, why would that not work? |
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 13, 2021 23:11:51 GMT
Conservatives-Progress-Centre actually have a narrow majority with 85 seats combined, so if the Norwegian political culture was (very..) different Centre could do some horse-trading. For those of us with no knowledge of Norwegian politics, why would that not work? Even the rightwingers don't believe it would! We could see some interesting developments on the right especially if the left government goes to anti oil...the Norwegians aren't going to give that up easily... |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 13, 2021 23:13:54 GMT
Red is more overtly marxist with a distinct communist wing. Socialist Left is lerhaps more red green but they would both be well to the left of Labour. My Norwegian friend who works in banking and has a degree in Arabic so talks to oil sheiks frequently, votes Socialist Left! did they split at some point or is one the remnant of a communist party or something like that? Socialist Left started as a Labour splinter ca.1960 but essentially took over the role of a Eurocommunist party in the party system, and I think some of their membership when they and the CP temporally allied in the 70s. (Obviously, their existence and success has also hindered the Greens, who've never been very successful here.) Red has a past deep in Maoist sectarianism and has broken through electorally largely thanks to SV joining government in 2005. |
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