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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2021 23:16:59 GMT
Conservatives-Progress-Centre actually have a narrow majority with 85 seats combined, so if the Norwegian political culture was (very..) different Centre could do some horse-trading. For those of us with no knowledge of Norwegian politics, why would that not work? I suspect it's a combination of the very different voter bases (urban vs rural) and disagreements over particularly tariff policy with Centre being somewhat more protectionist |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2021 23:36:18 GMT
Conservatives-Progress-Centre actually have a narrow majority with 85 seats combined, so if the Norwegian political culture was (very..) different Centre could do some horse-trading. For those of us with no knowledge of Norwegian politics, why would that not work? Norwegian political culture is too orderly and trust based, you can't do the exact opposite of what you said during the campaign just because you get a better offer. It would cause a major backlash and would not be accepted within the party either. Centre has used the entire term rallying against the government's centralising policies (municipal and regional reforms etc.) and have doubled down on their alliance with Labour. Solberg has also been quite blunt in her dismissal of Centre as reactionary and against reforming the country and safeguarding its economic future, whereas the new Progress leader Sylvi Listhaug has openly said that "the biggest problem in Norwegian politics is that Centre is on the other side". An alliance with Centre would be Progress only realistic way to get tougher immigration policies (and a Progress, Conservative, Centre government would also be less green and tougher on law & order than one dependent on the Liberals and Christian Democrats). But such a government would also require a more ideologically Conservative leader of the Conservatives, Solberg is quite Liberal. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2021 23:45:26 GMT
If anyone's interested, the Sámi parliament election is at 67.8% counted, with about 2/3 of it being early vote. Currently it's | Party | % share | Seats | Change | | Norwegian Sámi Association | 30.6 | 16 | - | | "Nordkalottfolket" | 16.2 | 8 | +5 | | Labour | 15.6 | 7 | -2 | | Centre | 10.9 | 4 | +2 | | Progress | 4.2 | 2 | +1 | | Sámi People's Party | 5.8 | 1 | - | | "Ávjovári Johttisápmelaččaid Listu" | 3.4 | 1 | - | | Høyre | 4.4 | 0 | -1 | "Árja" (transl. "commitment"
| 5.5 | 0 | -1 | Ávjovári Daloniid Listu
| 2.1 | 0 | -1 | | "Samenes Folkebund" | 1.3 | 0 | - |
It's quite hard to find any information in English, and I don't speak either Norwegian or Northern Sámi (or any other Sámi language, but Northern is the most relevant one as it accounts for somewhere around 75% of speakers of all Sámi languages). The current administration is NSA; Johttisápmelaččaid Listu; "Åarjel-Saemiej GÏelh; and an ex-Labour independent. Nordkalottfolket I covered earlier; Árja appear to be a Sámi equivalent of the Centre Party, focussing largely on coastal and rural issues. The Progress Party favour abolition of the parliament. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2021 23:56:41 GMT
If anyone's interested, the Sámi parliament election is at 67.8% counted, with about 2/3 of it being early vote. Currently it's | Party | % share | Seats | Change | | Norwegian Sámi Association | 30.6 | 16 | - | | "Nordkalottfolket" | 16.2 | 8 | +5 | | Labour | 15.6 | 7 | -2 | | Centre | 10.9 | 4 | +2 | | Progress | 4.2 | 2 | +1 | | Sámi People's Party | 5.8 | 1 | - | | "Ávjovári Johttisápmelaččaid Listu" | 3.4 | 1 | - | | Høyre | 4.4 | 0 | -1 | "Árja" (transl. "commitment"
| 5.5 | 0 | -1 | Ávjovári Daloniid Listu
| 2.1 | 0 | -1 | | "Samenes Folkebund" | 1.3 | 0 | - |
It's quite hard to find any information in English, and I don't speak either Norwegian or Northern Sámi (or any other Sámi language, but Northern is the most relevant one as it accounts for somewhere around 75% of speakers of all Sámi languages). The current administration is NSA; Johttisápmelaččaid Listu; "Åarjel-Saemiej GÏelh; and an ex-Labour independent. Nordkalottfolket I covered earlier; Árja appear to be a Sámi equivalent of the Centre Party, focussing largely on coastal and rural issues. The Progress Party favour abolition of the parliament. The parliament's responsibilities include managing the Sámi development fund (grants for Sámi cultural organisations etc.); developing "the Sámi language" (this includes ensuring that services are available and people can be dealt with in a Sámi language in those municipalities where they are official)*; protection of cultural sites; development of teaching aids; electing 50% of the board of the Finnmark estate which owns about 95% of the land in Finnmark. *I'm not sure and am trying to work out whether, in practice, this means just Northern Sámi, or all the Sámi languages. Northern Sámi's 15,000 speakers are about 75% of people who speak a Sámi language, with around 7-10 thousand of them in Norway. Lule Sámi has about 1,500 speakers and Southern Sámi about 500; Pite and Ume Sámi are both moribund with the number of speakers in double figures, and completely extinct in Norway, although a revival programme is underway. It seems that Norway only recognises "Sámi" as a minority language without specifying which form; I don't know, and can't seem to find out if any of the linguistic issues are considered to be major issues by Norwegian Sámi or if this ever gets contentious |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Sept 14, 2021 0:33:15 GMT
For those of us with no knowledge of Norwegian politics, why would that not work? Norwegian political culture is too orderly and trust based, you can't do the exact opposite of what you said during the campaign just because you get a better offer. It would cause a major backlash and would not be accepted within the party either. Centre has used the entire term rallying against the government's centralising policies (municipal and regional reforms etc.) and have doubled down on their alliance with Labour. Solberg has also been quite blunt in her dismissal of Centre as reactionary and against reforming the country and safeguarding its economic future, whereas the new Progress leader Sylvi Listhaug has openly said that "the biggest problem in Norwegian politics is that Centre is one the other side". An alliance with Centre would be Progress only realistic way to get tougher immigration policies (and a Progress, Conservative, Centre government would also be less green and tougher on law & order than one dependent on the Liberals and Christian Democrats). But such a government would also require a more ideologically Conservative leader of the Conservatives, Solberg is quite Liberal. Explains a lot. Thank you |
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 14, 2021 0:51:10 GMT
Norwegian political culture is too orderly and trust based, you can't do the exact opposite of what you said during the campaign just because you get a better offer. It would cause a major backlash and would not be accepted within the party either. Centre has used the entire term rallying against the government's centralising policies (municipal and regional reforms etc.) and have doubled down on their alliance with Labour. Solberg has also been quite blunt in her dismissal of Centre as reactionary and against reforming the country and safeguarding its economic future, whereas the new Progress leader Sylvi Listhaug has openly said that "the biggest problem in Norwegian politics is that Centre is one the other side". An alliance with Centre would be Progress only realistic way to get tougher immigration policies (and a Progress, Conservative, Centre government would also be less green and tougher on law & order than one dependent on the Liberals and Christian Democrats). But such a government would also require a more ideologically Conservative leader of the Conservatives, Solberg is quite Liberal. Explains a lot. Thank you Looks like centre will be interesting..they better deliver.. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2021 6:30:07 GMT
Some trivia:
Turnout was 76.5%, down from 78.2% last time and the lowest since 2009 when it was 76.4%.
A record 47% of the new MPs are women.
Labour got their second worst result since 1912 when they got 24.3% (the worst was 2001 when they lost 22 seats and got 24.3%).
Progress got their worst result since the disastrous 1993 election when they lost 12 of 22 seats and dropped to 6.3% after internal infighting.
The Christian Democrats failed to pass the threshold for the first time since 1936.
Red got seats outside the capital region for the first time.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 14, 2021 12:28:05 GMT
Red got seats outside the capital region for the first time. And one of them wasn't even an equalization (whatever Norway calls them) seat! |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2021 12:47:22 GMT
Red got seats outside the capital region for the first time. And one of them wasn't even an equalization (whatever Norway calls them) seat! Yes, unsurprisingly in Hordaland with the country's 2nd city Bergen. They're called levelling seats (utjevningsmandater). |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2021 15:07:03 GMT
did they split at some point or is one the remnant of a communist party or something like that? Lefty NATO sceptics formed the Socialist People's Party in 1961 over Labour PM Einar Gerhardsen's decision to allow US nukes on Norwegian territory. They deliberately modeled the party on the recently formed Danish party of the same name, which back then was a Euro-Communist party (formed in 1958/59 by the chairman of the Danish Communists Aksel Larsen after he lost a power struggle to the Moscow loyalists). SPP failed to pass the threshold in 1969, and in 1972 they teamed up with the Democratic Socialists formed by EEC opponents within Labour and the trade union movement, the Communist Party of Norway and various independent New Left-y activist types based on their cooperation within the "No" campaign up to the EEC referendum in 1972. In 1975 they decided to merge into a common party with a deadline for dissolving the old parties the following year, a majority of the Communists ended up voting against the merger but their party leader Reidar T. Larsen and a large minority did join the new Socialist Left. So it's the result of two split-offs from Labour's left wing (one anti-NATO and one anti-EEC) with the first one imitating a Danish Euro-Communist party and a merger with the "Euro-Communist" wing of the Communists and various post-68 New Left activists with its ideology gradually being watered down, with the process accelerating following the fall of the Berlin Wall. The end result is a pragmatic party very close to the Danish SPP and the Left Greens in Iceland, apart from SPP now being pro-EU. But otherwise it's basically the same mix of left wing Social Democracy, environmentalism, generic "humanism" and a dash of feminism with no obvious remnants of Marxism. Red with its Maoist roots has much stronger links to the Marxist tradition and is perceived as far more "radical". |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 14, 2021 21:05:26 GMT
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 14, 2021 22:15:47 GMT
"The biggest disappointment of this election came for the Green Party of Norway, who were on tenterhooks to pass the 4% threshold and acquire compensatory seats. However, they only polled 3.8% in the end_(my underscore)" Meanwhile close to 100,000 ballots have been added in between the end of "preliminary counting" and the currently 92.1% completion of "final counting" which leaves them at 3.94%, or 1883 votes short of the threshold. Thats down from over 6000 towards the end of provisional counting.. valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2021 |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2021 22:19:27 GMT
The DeViations from the actual result of each pollsters' last poll (nota bene: some were already conducted weeks/months ago):  |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 14, 2021 22:20:27 GMT
"The biggest disappointment of this election came for the Green Party of Norway, who were on tenterhooks to pass the 4% threshold and acquire compensatory seats. However, they only polled 3.8% in the end_(my underscore)" Meanwhile close to 100,000 ballots have been added in between the end of "preliminary counting" and the currently 92.1% completion of "final counting" which leaves them at 3.94%, or 1883 votes short of the threshold. Thats down from over 6000 towards the end of provisional counting.. valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2021Those extra ballots have not altered the final seat counts though. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2021 22:21:06 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2021 22:58:34 GMT
EDIT:   |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2021 3:17:59 GMT
Lots of UnBeliefabilities: How should the defeat for the coalition be "surprising", when their 4 parties had a lead in the polls over the left parties plus Sp for the last time in October 2018 - 3 years ago?!!! Also Frp stood before leaving the coalition roughly, where they ended on MonDay, and got immediately afterwards (in spring 2020) even a bump. The Liberals fared not "surprisingly well" - they got those 4% as predicted. The ChristDemocrats have their StrongHolds in the South West (not in the "South East"). No idea, what secularization by "the merging of towns" means. "the rise of the Marxist Red Party particularly in industrial towns": Red received uniformly 3-6% and gained everywhere 1-3%, but was once again better in not so industrial Oslo (8%; +3%); where they performed well not only on the proletarian eastern fringe, but also in the centre (students). AkersHus is only the inner part of "Oslo's commuter belt". TheGreens were not "failing to pick up extra votes in rural counties" - they made in the N nearly none and in the S&W low ones, but increased in the SE: Not only in Oslo, but also in the rural areas around AkersHus. Sp and/or SV will perhaps only support a Labour-minority. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 15, 2021 12:59:59 GMT
Also, it looks like we may get a Labour/Centre/Socialist Left majority, which will make government formation easier, although SocLeft and Labour will want a three party government, while Centre doesn't want SocLeft in the government and that'll likely still result in a one-party Labour government as the compromise. But a coalition becomes somewhat more likely if the three parties get a majority. What is the difference between Red and the Socialist Left? An enormous unbridgeable gulf, far wider than that between the far right and the far left. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2021 19:34:14 GMT
Few of those awful LevellingSeats have migrated, thus an improved version: |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 16, 2021 0:46:25 GMT
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