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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 18, 2021 6:19:47 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Batley and Spen by election. The candidates as a reminder are: Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) Jayda Fransen (Independent) George Galloway (Workers Party) Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) Susan Laird (Heritage Party) Kim Leadbeater (Labour) Oliver Purser (SDP) Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) Jack Thomson (UKIP) Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) Rules1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 16 candidates, to 1 decimal place.2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%. 3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully. 4. You will be penalised 6.5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction. 5. You will be penalised 6.5 points for predicting the wrong winner. 6. You will be penalised 13 points for wearing George Galloway's hat.**
7. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 1st July 2021. 8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
** This penalty will be rescinded if you are prepared to eat said hat after the by election result has been declared
Have Fun. Alien8Ted
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Jun 21, 2021 16:27:02 GMT
Right lads, I'm just gonna' go for it: | George Galloway | 33% | | Ryan Stephenson | 31% | | Kim Leadbeater | 30% | | Thomas Gordon | 3% | | Howling Laud Hope | 2% | | Corey Robinson | 1% | | Oliver Purser | 0% | | Mike Davies | 0% | | Thérèse Hirst | 0% | | Anne Marie Waters | 0% | | Andrew Smith | 0% | | Paul Bickerdike | 0% | | Susan Laird | 0% | | Jonathan Tilt | 0% | | Jack Thompson | 0% | | Jayda Fransen | 0% |
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 23, 2021 9:49:20 GMT
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) = 0.1%
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) = 0.4%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) = 0.2%
George Galloway (Workers Party) = 9.2%
Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) = 2.2%
Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) = 0.2%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) = 0.2%
Susan Laird (Heritage Party) = 0.0%
Kim Leadbeater (Labour) = 41.9%
Oliver Purser (SDP) = 0.1%
Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) = 1.2%
Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) = 0.2%
Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) = 43.4%
Jack Thomson (UKIP) = 0.3%
Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) = 0.1%
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) = 0.3%
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 23, 2021 10:05:32 GMT
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) = 0.2%
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) = 0.1%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) = 0.1%
George Galloway (Workers Party) = 12.7%
Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) = 4.2%
Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) = 0.5%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) = 0.2%
Susan Laird (Heritage Party) = 0.6%
Kim Leadbeater (Labour) = 35.2%
Oliver Purser (SDP) = 0.4%
Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) = 5.2%
Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) = 0.1%
Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) = 39.4%
Jack Thomson (UKIP) = 0.5%
Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) = 0.2%
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) = 0.4%
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Post by greenhert on Jun 23, 2021 19:44:18 GMT
My prediction:
Ryan Stephenson (Conservative): 43.5%, Kim Leadbeater (Labour): 42.5%, Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) 4%, George Galloway (WPGB) 3%, Tom Gordon (Lib Dem) 2.5%, Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.8%, Mike Davies (AGS) 0.7%, Anne-Marie Waters (For Britain) 0.5%, Jack Thomson (UKIP) 0.5%, Oliver Purser (SDP) 0.4%, Susan Laird (Heritage) 0.4%, Paul Bickerdike (CPA) 0.3%, Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3%, Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) 0.3%, Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.2%, Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) 0.1%. Conservative GAIN from Labour.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2021 11:58:26 GMT
CON 42%
LAB 39%
WPGB 12%
LD 4%
OTH 3%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 26, 2021 12:22:28 GMT
CON 42% LAB 39% WPGB 12% LD 4% OTH 3% @conservativeestimate Oth 3% will get you high penalty points 12 x 6.5. Its worth being more specific if you want to score well in the competition. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849 
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Post by johng on Jun 26, 2021 15:17:47 GMT
My prediction. I'll probably need to adjust the decimals as I manually counted to 100...
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) - 0.2%
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) - 0.1%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) - 0.3%
George Galloway (Workers Party) - 12.3%
Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.9%
Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) - 0.2%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) - 0.2%
Susan Laird (Heritage Party) - 0.1%
Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 38.1%
Oliver Purser (SDP) - 0.3%
Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) - 3.9%
Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) - 0.1%
Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 40.3%
Jack Thomson (UKIP) - 0.6%
Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) - 0.1%
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) - 0.3%
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 26, 2021 15:19:36 GMT
Tough one I have predicted Tory win on main thread!! but Hancock is no help to them but anyway...
Con 42%
Lab 39%
WP 11%
LD 5%
Oth 3%
If so 'Twas Galloway twat done it'
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 26, 2021 15:20:58 GMT
My prediction. I'll probably need to adjust the decimals as I manually counted to 100... Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) - 0.2% Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) - 0.1% Jayda Fransen (Independent) - 0.3% George Galloway (Workers Party) - 12.3% Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.9% Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) - 0.2% Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) - 0.2% Susan Laird (Heritage Party) - 0.1% Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 38.1% Oliver Purser (SDP) - 0.3% Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) - 3.9% Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) - 0.1% Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 40.3% Jack Thomson (UKIP) - 0.6% Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) - 0.1% Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) - 0.3% Fair play that is dedication to a prediction no matter what the result!!! |
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Post by thirdchill on Jun 26, 2021 16:25:50 GMT
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) = 0.1%
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) = 0.4%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) = 0.2%
George Galloway (Workers Party) = 7.1%
Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) = 1.9%
Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) = 0.3%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) = 0.1%
Susan Laird (Heritage Party) = 0.1%
Kim Leadbeater (Labour) = 42.5%
Oliver Purser (SDP) = 0.1%
Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) = 4.2%
Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) = 0.1%
Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) = 42.3% (Going to go for a 'Hancock' Effect).
Jack Thomson (UKIP) = 0.3%
Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) = 0.1%
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) = 0.2%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 26, 2021 16:36:35 GMT
Tough one I have predicted Tory win on main thread!! but Hancock is no help to them but anyway... Con 42% Lab 39% WP 11% LD 5% Oth 3% If so 'Twas Galloway twat done it' Other 3% will get you 6.5x12 penalty points. If you want to do well in the prediction competition, you'll need to predict for all 16 candidates. |
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 26, 2021 17:09:52 GMT
Tough one I have predicted Tory win on main thread!! but Hancock is no help to them but anyway... Con 42% Lab 39% WP 11% LD 5% Oth 3% If so 'Twas Galloway twat done it' Other 3% will get you 6.5x12 penalty points. If you want to do well in the prediction competition, you'll need to predict for all 16 candidates. Send me to the tower!! I am Irish so ye will probably shoot me at dawn!!! |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jun 26, 2021 18:16:25 GMT
Fair play that is dedication to a prediction no matter what the result!!! I predicted a Tory gain in Hartlepool too - though not with the pasting we received.
Without Galloway, I still think we would hold this, but it seems he's taking enough of our vote.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 26, 2021 18:23:31 GMT
seanryanj Other 3% will get you 6.5x12 penalty points. If you want to do well in the prediction competition, you'll need to predict for all 16 candidates. Send me to the tower!! I am Irish so ye will probably shoot me at dawn!!!  |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 29, 2021 6:10:44 GMT
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) 0.1%
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) 0.2%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.1%
George Galloway (Workers Party) 5.8%
Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) 2.9%
Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) 0.2%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3%
Susan Laird (Heritage Party) 0.1%
Kim Leadbeater (Labour) 41.7%
Oliver Purser (SDP) 0.3%
Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) 5.9%
Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) 0.1%
Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) 41.9%
Jack Thomson (UKIP) 0.2%
Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) 0.1%
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) 0.1%
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
Member is Online
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Post by ricmk on Jun 29, 2021 11:18:56 GMT
Tory 43% Labour 34% Galloway 15% Yorkshire 3% Lib Dem 3% Odds and sods 2% (split evenly between them before Defenestrated Fipplebox complains!) |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 29, 2021 11:29:48 GMT
Tory 43% Labour 34% Galloway 15% Yorkshire 3% Lib Dem 3% Odds and sods 2% (split evenly between them before Defenestrated Fipplebox complains!)
Complain, , I just try and prevent people getting penalty points. 
Your Odds and sods (the other 11 parties) will be calculated at 0.18% each as per your instructions, nearest % to 2 decimal places, kind sir.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 30, 2021 10:54:45 GMT
OK, here goes.
Ryan Stephenson 33%
George Galloway 30%
Kim Leadbeater 27%
Thomas Gordon 3%
Corey Robinson 1.6%
Hauling Laud Hope 1%
Jack Thompson 0.7%
Anne Marie Waters 0.6%
Oliver Purser 0.5%
Jayda Fransen 0.5%
Thérèse Hirst 0.5%
Andrew Smith 0.4%
Paul Bickerdike 0.4%
Susan Laird 0.4%
Johnathon Tilt 0.3%
Mike Davies 0.1%
(I needed to get rid of .6%).
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,532
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jun 30, 2021 12:40:33 GMT
My brain found it easier to predict numbers rather than percentages, so I did the numbers first and then translated into percentages
..0.5% Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) 150
..0.7% Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) 210
..0.1% Jayda Fransen (Independent) 30
..6.1% George Galloway (Workers Party) 1900
..3.1% Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) 960
..1.1% Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) 340
..0.4% Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 120
..0.3% Susan Laird (Heritage Party) 80
46.2% Kim Leadbeater (Labour) 14,400
..0.3% Oliver Purser (SDP) 90
..1.4% Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) 450
..0.2% Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) 70
38.8% Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) 12,100
..0.5% Jack Thomson (UKIP) 160
..0.2% Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) 60
..0.1% Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) 40
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