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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 1, 2021 21:39:14 GMT
27 Entries
Predicted Victor
5 Predicting a Labour Victory all with Conservatives 2nd. % lead varying from 0.2% ThirdChill & TonyOtim to 7.4% JohnLoony 1 Predicting a Workers Party victory. RichardCromwell by 2% over the Conservatives. 21 Predicting a Conservative victory. 19 have Labour 2nd, (2 are Joint 2nd) % lead varying from 0.2% Alien8Ted to 23% Michael2019. 4 have Workers Party 2nd (2 are joint 2nd) % lead varying from 2% (David) to 23% Michael 2019.
Predictions Range
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 0.9% SirBenjamin variation 0.9% Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 1.5% AJS variation 1.5% Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 1.0% Dibs & SirBenjamin variation 1.0% George Galloway (Workers Party) 3.0% GreenHert to 33.0% RichardCromwell variation 30.0% Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) 1.8% TonyOtim to 8.0% Dibs variation 6.2% Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 1.2% Andrew111 variation 1.2% Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.1% ThirdChill & Dibs to 2.0% RichardCromwell variation 1.9% Susan Laird (Heritage Party) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 1.6% Andrew111 variation 1.6% Kim Leadbeater (Labour) 21.1% Toylyyev to 46.2% JohnLoony variation 25.1% Oliver Purser (SDP) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 1.0% YellowPeril & SirBenjamin variation 1.0% Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party) 0.2% Dibs to 20.1% Toylyyev variation 19.9% Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 0.4% David variation 0.4% Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) 31.0% Richard Cromwell to 47.0% Michael2017 variation 12.8% Jack Thomson (UKIP) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 2.0% Dibs variation 2.0% Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 0.6% SirBenjamin variation 0.6% Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) 0.0% Richard Cromwell to 1.2% Andrew111 variation 1.2%
Penalties for non-predictions ConservativeEstimate 78 points (12 not predicted) SeanRyanJ 78 points (12 not predicted) Right 71.5 points (11 not predicted) Michael2019 65 points (10 not predicted)
Good luck.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 1, 2021 21:53:34 GMT
Am I too late now? Was waiting till the last minute then something came up at the last minute
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 1, 2021 22:27:05 GMT
Provisional vote Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) 0.1% Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) 1.5% Jayda Fransen (Independent)0.2% George Galloway (Workers Party)14.9% Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat)2% Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat)0.2% Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)0.4% Susan Laird (Heritage Party) 0.1% Kim Leadbeater (Labour)38.5% Oliver Purser (SDP) 0.2% Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party)1% Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) 0.3% Ryan Stephenson (Conservative)39.9% Jack Thomson (UKIP)0.4% Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) 0.1% Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) 0.2%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2021 6:04:58 GMT
Conservative 47% Galloway/WP 24% Labour 24% Lib Dem 2.5% Others between them 2.5% - Yorkshire (slightly over) 1%, Green Socialist (slightly under 1%) I'll have what he's having
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 2, 2021 6:54:24 GMT
Provisional vote Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) 0.1% Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism) 1.5% Jayda Fransen (Independent)0.2% George Galloway (Workers Party)14.9% Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat)2% Thérèse Hirst (English Democrat)0.2% Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)0.4% Susan Laird (Heritage Party) 0.1% Kim Leadbeater (Labour)38.5% Oliver Purser (SDP) 0.2% Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party)1% Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU) 0.3% Ryan Stephenson (Conservative)39.9% Jack Thomson (UKIP)0.4% Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance) 0.1% Anne Marie Waters (For Britain) 0.2%
Over an hour late = 13 penalty points.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 2, 2021 7:01:36 GMT
Conservative 47% Galloway/WP 24% Labour 24% Lib Dem 2.5% Others between them 2.5% - Yorkshire (slightly over) 1%, Green Socialist (slightly under 1%) I'll have what he's having
Would have done it before the declaration.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 2, 2021 7:16:34 GMT
Using the percentages as given in the main Batley and Spen By-Election thread, I can announce that, despite predicting the wrong winner carlton43 is the winner of the Prediction competition for this By-Election due to the consistent overall accuracy of his predictions. A close 2nd Place goes to Sg1 followed by Pete Whitehead who completes the first 3.
RESULT
Carlton43 - 20.2 SG1 - 20.8 PeteWhitehead - 22.2 YellowPeril - 22.6 TonyOtim - 23.3 SirBenjamin - 25.1 RickMK - 25.74 BjornHatten - 26.2 JohnG - 27.4 AJS - 28.2 David - 28.2 AGButler - 32.1 RichardCromwell - 32.2 PeterL - 32.8 JohnLoony - 34.1 RobbieNicoll - 34.4 ThirdChill - 34.6 Andrew111 - 35.8 Dibs - 36.4 BigFatRon - 38.2 Manchesterman - 38.6 Alien8Ted - 42.5 Toylyyev - 42.8 GreenHert - 46 Right - 95.3 Michael2019 - 100 SeanRyanJ - 106.4 ConservativeEstimate - 108.4
Thank you to all who took part.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 2, 2021 9:13:36 GMT
Using the percentages as given in the main Batley and Spen By-Election thread, I can announce that, despite predicting the wrong winner carlton43 is the winner of the Prediction competition for this By-Election due to the consistent overall accuracy of his predictions. A close 2nd Place goes to Sg1 followed by Pete Whitehead who completes the first 3.
RESULT
Carlton43 - 20.2 SG1 - 20.8 PeteWhitehead - 22.2 YellowPeril - 22.6 TonyOtim - 23.3 SirBenjamin - 25.1 RickMK - 25.74 BjornHatten - 26.2 JohnG - 27.4 AJS - 28.2 David - 28.2 AGButler - 32.1 RichardCromwell - 32.2 PeterL - 32.8 JohnLoony - 34.1 RobbieNicoll - 34.4 ThirdChill - 34.6 Andrew111 - 35.8 Dibs - 36.4 BigFatRon - 38.2 Manchesterman - 38.6 Alien8Ted - 42.5 Toylyyev - 42.8 GreenHert - 46 Right - 95.3 Michael2019 - 100 SeanRyanJ - 106.4 ConservativeEstimate - 108.4
Thank you to all who took part.
Thanks for organising it and the prompt declaration of results. Congratulations to carlton43 for his victory.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2021 9:17:32 GMT
How many got the correct winner, and how does this compare to Chesham and Hartlepool?
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 2, 2021 9:23:13 GMT
Using the percentages as given in the main Batley and Spen By-Election thread, I can announce that, despite predicting the wrong winner carlton43 is the winner of the Prediction competition for this By-Election due to the consistent overall accuracy of his predictions. A close 2nd Place goes to Sg1 followed by Pete Whitehead who completes the first 3.
RESULT
Carlton43 - 20.2 SG1 - 20.8 PeteWhitehead - 22.2 YellowPeril - 22.6 TonyOtim - 23.3 SirBenjamin - 25.1 RickMK - 25.74 BjornHatten - 26.2 JohnG - 27.4 AJS - 28.2 David - 28.2 AGButler - 32.1 RichardCromwell - 32.2 PeterL - 32.8 JohnLoony - 34.1 RobbieNicoll - 34.4 ThirdChill - 34.6 Andrew111 - 35.8 Dibs - 36.4 BigFatRon - 38.2 Manchesterman - 38.6 Alien8Ted - 42.5 Toylyyev - 42.8 GreenHert - 46 Right - 95.3 Michael2019 - 100 SeanRyanJ - 106.4 ConservativeEstimate - 108.4
Thank you to all who took part.
Thanks for organising it and the prompt declaration of results. Congratulations to carlton43 for his victory. Thank you Tony. That was generous. And thanks to Defenestrated Fipplebox for the light touch running of it. I am astonished at having forecast the wrong winner and yet winning. I nearly changed back to LAB hold this week because of GG. This left us all floundering in a sea of not really knowing enough and not having any 'ground contact'. Chance is all at such moments.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 2, 2021 9:50:16 GMT
How many got the correct winner, and how does this compare to Chesham and Hartlepool?
Batley and Spen - 28 entries 5 predicted Labour 1 predicted Workers Party 22 predicted Conservative
The 5 who predicted the correct winner were TonyOtim - 5th
SirBenjamin - 6th
AGButler - 12th
JohnLoony - 15th ThirdChill - 17th
Hatlepool - 8 entries 5 predicted Labour 3 predicted Conservative
Chesham - 25 entries 18 predicted Conservative 7 Predicted Liberal Democrat
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 2, 2021 10:12:00 GMT
How many got the correct winner, and how does this compare to Chesham and Hartlepool?
Batley and Spen - 28 entries 5 predicted Labour 1 predicted Workers Party 22 predicted Conservative The 5 who predicted the correct winner were TonyOtim - 5th
SirBenjamin - 6th
AGButler - 12th
JohnLoony - 15th ThirdChill - 17th
Hatlepool - 8 entries 5 predicted Labour 3 predicted Conservative Chesham - 25 entries 18 predicted Conservative 7 Predicted Liberal Democrat
So, do I get to claim the moral victory, regardless of the actual results then?
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 2, 2021 10:20:50 GMT
Batley and Spen - 28 entries 5 predicted Labour 1 predicted Workers Party 22 predicted Conservative The 5 who predicted the correct winner were TonyOtim - 5th
SirBenjamin - 6th
AGButler - 12th
JohnLoony - 15th ThirdChill - 17th
Hatlepool - 8 entries 5 predicted Labour 3 predicted Conservative Chesham - 25 entries 18 predicted Conservative 7 Predicted Liberal Democrat
So, do I get to claim the moral victory, regardless of the actual results then? Why not? Victory to Tony in a difficult set of results that defeated most of us. Congratulations.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 2, 2021 10:21:23 GMT
Batley and Spen - 28 entries 5 predicted Labour 1 predicted Workers Party 22 predicted Conservative The 5 who predicted the correct winner were TonyOtim - 5th
SirBenjamin - 6th
AGButler - 12th
JohnLoony - 15th ThirdChill - 17th
Hatlepool - 8 entries 5 predicted Labour 3 predicted Conservative Chesham - 25 entries 18 predicted Conservative 7 Predicted Liberal Democrat
So, do I get to claim the moral victory, regardless of the actual results then?
Why not, it'll it will be good for your morale.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 2, 2021 10:41:03 GMT
So, do I get to claim the moral victory, regardless of the actual results then?
Why not, it'll it will be good for your morale.
I think I'd have settled for just being pipped to a podium place by Pete Whitehead, given his record on such things. Like many others, if I had gone with my gut and changed my vote back to Labour in the last few hours maybe I could have won. But not if we'd all done it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 2, 2021 11:52:04 GMT
My brain found it easier to predict numbers rather than percentages, so I did the numbers first and then translated into percentages I did this and looking back I was quite close with a lot of them. I had Labour on 13,000, Galloway on 8,000, the Lib Dems on 1,200 - I even had Rejoin EU getting 75. Where I went wrong was in a massively inflated Conservative vote (such that I'm surprised I came third although apart from that candidate, most of my figures were not that far out)
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 2, 2021 12:51:49 GMT
I'm surprised I even came close to winning the comp since I was so far off the mark with the top two candidates
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