The Revenge of the REMAINERS : It's got to be a thing now?

[Harry Hayfield]

Local Elections 2018: South Cambridgeshire (REMAIN 60.2% LEAVE 39.8%)
Last election: Con 27, Lib Dem 10, Ind 7, Lab 1 (Con majority of 9)
Election 2018: Lib Dem 30, Con 11, Ind 2, Lab 2 (Lib Dem majority of 15)

Local Elections 2019: Vale of the White Horse (REMAIN 56.7% LEAVE 43.3%)
Last election: Con 29, Lib Dem 9 (Con majority of 20)
Election 2019: Lib Dem 31, Con 6, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 24)

Local Elections 2021: St. Albans (REMAIN 62.7% LEAVE 37.3%)
Last election: Lib Dem 25, Con 24, Lab 5, Ind 3, Green 1 (NOC)
Election 2021: Lib Dem 30, Con 23, Ind 2, Lab 2, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 1)

In the London Assembly elections, the Liberal Democrats came within a whisker of winning South West London (average REMAIN vote 57%) and now Chesham and Amersham (REMAIN estimate 55%). The REMAINers who voted Conservative in 2019 are now making their feelings felt, therefore is there now a REMAIN Blue Wall as well as a LEAVE Red Wall?

[froome]

Ever since the parroting of the Red Wall by the media, it has been obvious that there is a comparable Blue Wall in the Home Counties, particularly the western half, which has responded to the referendum result in a similar manner. While the Red Wall has always been a misnomer, as it has only been a loose collection of towns with similar characteristics, the Blue Wall has been a monolithic Conservative wall of seats surrounding much of London and extending into much of the southern half of England.

However, while Remain voting may have been a factor in Chesham and Amersham, it's importance is more as a starting point to disaffection with the governing party, which other issues, such as planning reform, have built on and persuaded voters to change their voting behaviour.

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2021 5:26:46 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Local Elections 2018: South Cambridgeshire (REMAIN 60.2% LEAVE 39.8%)
Last election: Con 27, Lib Dem 10, Ind 7, Lab 1 (Con majority of 9)
Election 2018: Lib Dem 30, Con 11, Ind 2, Lab 2 (Lib Dem majority of 15)

Local Elections 2019: Vale of the White Horse (REMAIN 56.7% LEAVE 43.3%)
Last election: Con 29, Lib Dem 9 (Con majority of 20)
Election 2019: Lib Dem 31, Con 6, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 24)

Local Elections 2021: St. Albans (REMAIN 62.7% LEAVE 37.3%)
Last election: Lib Dem 25, Con 24, Lab 5, Ind 3, Green 1 (NOC)
Election 2021: Lib Dem 30, Con 23, Ind 2, Lab 2, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 1)

In the London Assembly elections, the Liberal Democrats came within a whisker of winning South West London (average REMAIN vote 57%) and now Chesham and Amersham (REMAIN estimate 55%). The REMAINers who voted Conservative in 2019 are now making their feelings felt, therefore is there now a REMAIN Blue Wall as well as a LEAVE Red Wall?

"Blue wall" and "red wall" are still complete nonsense terms 

[wallington]

Jun 18, 2021 7:43:16 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jun 18, 2021 5:26:46 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Local Elections 2018: South Cambridgeshire (REMAIN 60.2% LEAVE 39.8%)
Last election: Con 27, Lib Dem 10, Ind 7, Lab 1 (Con majority of 9)
Election 2018: Lib Dem 30, Con 11, Ind 2, Lab 2 (Lib Dem majority of 15)

Local Elections 2019: Vale of the White Horse (REMAIN 56.7% LEAVE 43.3%)
Last election: Con 29, Lib Dem 9 (Con majority of 20)
Election 2019: Lib Dem 31, Con 6, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 24)

Local Elections 2021: St. Albans (REMAIN 62.7% LEAVE 37.3%)
Last election: Lib Dem 25, Con 24, Lab 5, Ind 3, Green 1 (NOC)
Election 2021: Lib Dem 30, Con 23, Ind 2, Lab 2, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 1)

In the London Assembly elections, the Liberal Democrats came within a whisker of winning South West London (average REMAIN vote 57%) and now Chesham and Amersham (REMAIN estimate 55%). The REMAINers who voted Conservative in 2019 are now making their feelings felt, therefore is there now a REMAIN Blue Wall as well as a LEAVE Red Wall?

"Blue wall" and "red wall" are still complete nonsense terms 

I think one of the biggest annoyances which will come out from the result in Chesham and Amersham is it will give extra fuel to the simplistic "Blue Wall" media narrative.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 18, 2021 5:26:46 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Local Elections 2018: South Cambridgeshire (REMAIN 60.2% LEAVE 39.8%)
Last election: Con 27, Lib Dem 10, Ind 7, Lab 1 (Con majority of 9)
Election 2018: Lib Dem 30, Con 11, Ind 2, Lab 2 (Lib Dem majority of 15)

Local Elections 2019: Vale of the White Horse (REMAIN 56.7% LEAVE 43.3%)
Last election: Con 29, Lib Dem 9 (Con majority of 20)
Election 2019: Lib Dem 31, Con 6, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 24)

Local Elections 2021: St. Albans (REMAIN 62.7% LEAVE 37.3%)
Last election: Lib Dem 25, Con 24, Lab 5, Ind 3, Green 1 (NOC)
Election 2021: Lib Dem 30, Con 23, Ind 2, Lab 2, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 1)

In the London Assembly elections, the Liberal Democrats came within a whisker of winning South West London (average REMAIN vote 57%) and now Chesham and Amersham (REMAIN estimate 55%). The REMAINers who voted Conservative in 2019 are now making their feelings felt, therefore is there now a REMAIN Blue Wall as well as a LEAVE Red Wall?

St Albans elects by thirds

[michael2019]

Jun 18, 2021 7:43:16 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jun 18, 2021 5:26:46 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Local Elections 2018: South Cambridgeshire (REMAIN 60.2% LEAVE 39.8%)
Last election: Con 27, Lib Dem 10, Ind 7, Lab 1 (Con majority of 9)
Election 2018: Lib Dem 30, Con 11, Ind 2, Lab 2 (Lib Dem majority of 15)

Local Elections 2019: Vale of the White Horse (REMAIN 56.7% LEAVE 43.3%)
Last election: Con 29, Lib Dem 9 (Con majority of 20)
Election 2019: Lib Dem 31, Con 6, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 24)

Local Elections 2021: St. Albans (REMAIN 62.7% LEAVE 37.3%)
Last election: Lib Dem 25, Con 24, Lab 5, Ind 3, Green 1 (NOC)
Election 2021: Lib Dem 30, Con 23, Ind 2, Lab 2, Green 1 (Lib Dem majority of 1)

In the London Assembly elections, the Liberal Democrats came within a whisker of winning South West London (average REMAIN vote 57%) and now Chesham and Amersham (REMAIN estimate 55%). The REMAINers who voted Conservative in 2019 are now making their feelings felt, therefore is there now a REMAIN Blue Wall as well as a LEAVE Red Wall?

"Blue wall" and "red wall" are still complete nonsense terms 

I am not sure you are going to be best pleased by this:

[wallington]

Jun 18, 2021 9:37:45 GMT michael2019 said:

Jun 18, 2021 7:43:16 GMT @europeanlefty said:

"Blue wall" and "red wall" are still complete nonsense terms 

I am not sure you are going to be best pleased by this:

Johnson and his Get Brexit Done digger have a lot to answer for.... but jesus, that's just proper cringe.

[michael2019]

Jun 18, 2021 14:48:16 GMT wallington said:

Jun 18, 2021 9:37:45 GMT michael2019 said:

I am not sure you are going to be best pleased by this:

Johnson and his Get Brexit Done digger have a lot to answer for.... but jesus, that's just proper cringe.

LOL!

May be - and it has been pointed out that he should may be have used a bigger hammer - but it is a brilliant image that will lodge in people's minds - and a little more than the merits of STV elections - so may be the Lib Dems are getting their publicity act together at long last! And even small hammers can knock down big walls!

[Pimpernal]

No.

[The Bishop]

Maybe the worst thing about the C&A result is that we are going to hear the term "blue wall" used almost as much - and as witlessly - as "red wall".

[bjornhattan]

Jun 19, 2021 10:30:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Maybe the worst thing about the C&A result is that we are going to hear the term "blue wall" used almost as much - and as witlessly - as "red wall".

I wonder if we'll see its meaning distorted to include an ever growing list of constituencies, just like its red cousin?

For example, will classic marginals like South Swindon be included within their definition of a "wall"? Will it become a term of reference, with asinine media hacks describing seats like Hexham as "a slice of the Blue Wall in the North East"? I think I speak for all of us when I say that I hope not, but you know they'll try.

I hope not.

[The Bishop]

You (we) are almost certainly hoping in vain, however.

[Deleted]

One thing which infuriated me was an article (I think in the Guardian?) that use this new "blue wall" rubbish but explicitly said that "of course not all blue wall seats are alike" as though we can acknowledge that there's a difference between C & A and, say, Witney but of course Hartlepool is identical to Rother Valley in every way

[johnhemming]

It is part of the way that brains work that they look for patterns. When mammals have language they attach labels to this. The fact that the labels do not always precisely define the patterns is in essence inevitable.

[yellowperil]

Jun 19, 2021 17:53:36 GMT Andrew_S said:

Jun 19, 2021 10:30:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Maybe the worst thing about the C&A result is that we are going to hear the term "blue wall" used almost as much - and as witlessly - as "red wall".

What about orange wall?

There are only a few very low orange fences. I think all our orange walls came down in 2015.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 19, 2021 18:13:48 GMT yellowperil said:

Jun 19, 2021 17:53:36 GMT Andrew_S said:

What about orange wall?

There are only a few very low orange fences. I think all our orange walls came down in 2015.

Not low hanging fruit, ripe to be picked?

[trekett]

You're looking at the front line. Think about Sir Clegg and what wizardry he can perform behind the scene at Facebook.

[Chris from Brum]

Aug 15, 2021 20:21:13 GMT trekett said:

You're looking at the front line. Think about Sir Clegg and what wizardry he can perform behind the scene at Facebook.

Clegg owes us quite substantially, but I suspect that this is not within his gift.

[pericles]

This was a useful dataset on seats that are being called 'blue wall' seats-https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_n7iMas7vUMa60QsvcuwnsgU82mc6IRkERM8MGFMkhs/edit#gid=0

The thing that sticks out is there are a lot fewer of these than the old 'red wall' seats, or even the majority of Labour seats that still voted to Leave. So it's really in Labour's interests to try as hard as possible to reduce the education divide and avoid being wedged like it was in 2019. That said, these seats could make the difference in a close election where the Tories also lose some of their closer 2019 gains and traditional marginals.

[Merseymike]

Sept 2, 2021 10:18:43 GMT pericles said:

This was a useful dataset on seats that are being called 'blue wall' seats-https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_n7iMas7vUMa60QsvcuwnsgU82mc6IRkERM8MGFMkhs/edit#gid=0

The thing that sticks out is there are a lot fewer of these than the old 'red wall' seats, or even the majority of Labour seats that still voted to Leave. So it's really in Labour's interests to try as hard as possible to reduce the education divide and avoid being wedged like it was in 2019. That said, these seats could make the difference in a close election where the Tories also lose some of their closer 2019 gains and traditional marginals.

It could easily see a return to hung parliament days. Some sort of LibDem revival in seats only they can win necessary.
As I've said elsewhere I do not see Labour winning a majority again, but a hung Parliament could prove interesting