Prediction competition for March 2013

[middleenglander]

Looks like 14 contests:
- 1 on 7th March
- 4 on 14th
- 6 on 21st
- 3 on 28th

5 of the contests are in London Borough last contested in 2010
6 are in District Councils with elections every 4 years and last contested in 2011
3 are where the last election was in 2012
- 1 in a Metropolitan borough
- 1 in a District Council with annual elections
- 1 a Scottish Council.

Conservatives are defending 6 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 after resignations
Labour defend 6, 3 after death and 3 resignations including 1 prior to disqualification
Lib Dems defend 1 following resignation of previous councillor sitting as an Independent
SNP defend 1 following a resignation.

With nominations in for all the seats:
Conservatives are contesting all 14, Labour 12 (not Moray and Fenland) whilst the Lib Dems are contesting 10 (not Moray, Runnymede, Havering and North Dorset, The Stours)
UKIP 6 whilst there are 5 Green as well as 4 BNP, 3 Independents (all in Moray) and 3 Resident Groups (2 in Havering) along with 2 English Democrats
whilst SNP, Lewisham People before Profits, Socialist Party (GB) and TUSC each have 1 candidate.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

[Robert Waller]

Moray

Pete Bloomfield Scottish Conservative and Unionist 17%
John Cowe Independent 14%
Stuart Crowther Scottish National Party 37%
Jeff Hamilton Independent 18%
James MacKessack-Leitch Scottish Green Party 6%
Nick Traynor Independent 8%

[dibs]

SNP 42 CON 15 TRAYNOR INDEP 12 COWE INDEP 12 HAMILTON INDEP12 GREEN 7

[marksenior]

Not a clue this week re the Indies
SNP 34
Con 15
Green 5
Hamilton 20
Cowe 17
Traynor 9

[East Anglian Lefty]

I know James McKessack-Leitch, although I hadn't been aware that was his surname until I saw an article with photos of the candidates. I've had a couple of drunken political arguments with him, and had always assumed he was basically a Tory. Certainly he's not a watermelon.

None of which gives me any particular insight into this election, so I'm just going to guess.

SNP 35
Ind Cowe 19
Con 18
G 11
Ind Traynor 9
Ind Hamilton 8

[greatkingrat]

SNP 43
Con 19
Traynor 14
Cove 12
Grn 7
Hamilton 5

[Arthur Figgis]

SNP 39, C 17, Ind H 16, Ind T 11, Ind C 11, G 6.

[hempie]

SNP 38, C 24, Ind Hamilton 10, Ind Traynor10, Ind Cowe 10, Green 8

[Tony Otim]

Mar 5, 2013 10:29:05 GMT Tony Otim said:

SNP 34.8
Ind T 21.2
Ind C 15.5
Con 13.5
Grn 7.9
Ind H 7.1
(FWIW - enough votes won't transfer that the SNP will hold on).

[Pete Whitehead]

A stab in the dark

Mar 6, 2013 23:59:33 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

SNP   34.4%
Con   16.3%
Ind C 15.8%
Ind H 15.2%
Ind T 14.5%
Grn    3.8%

[Philip Davies]

Mar 7, 2013 1:39:38 GMT Philip Davies said:

Moray - Heldon & Laich ward

Pete BLOOMFIELD (Con) 23.6
John COWE (Ind) 14.7
Stuart CROWTHER (SNP) 36.9
Jeff HAMILTON (Ind) 3.7
James Edward MACKESSACK-LEITCH (Green) 10.0
Nick TRAYNOR (Ind) 11.1

I spent a lot of time look at all the detailed box data, the STV preference data and where the candidates live. I doubt it will have been worth it!

[middleenglander]

11 entries this week for the Moray contest with no additional faults.

Unanimity that the SNP will lead on first preference votes, but then lack of consensus particularly about the Independents.

SNP - average 36.9 - ranging from 32% (Andrew Teale) to 43% (greatkingrat)
Conservative - average 17.3% - ranging from 12% (Andrew Teale) to 24% (hempie)
Green - average 7.2% - ranging from 3.8% (Pete Whitehead) to 11% (East Anglian Lefty)
Independent C - average 13.8% - ranging from 10% (hempie) to 19% (East Anglian Lefty)
Independent H - average 13.0% - ranging from 3.7% (phildav) to 28% (Andrew Teale)
Independent T - average 11.7% - ranging from 8% (Robert Waller) to 21.2% (tonyotim)

The count is not until Friday morning.

[Pete Whitehead]

Do you have Andrew Teale's prediction to hand?

[Tony Otim]

Well, we all f***ed that one up!

[middleenglander]

Mar 8, 2013 10:29:00 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Do you have Andrew Teale's prediction to hand?

SNP 32%, Ind H 28%, Con 12%, Ind C 11%, Ind T 9%, Green 8%

[middleenglander]

Everyone gets 10 additional faults for a wrong winner. Including this it looks like:

East Anglian Lefty 43.7 total faults, tonyotim 45.3, Pete Whitehead 48.2, everyone else bar Andrew Teale in the 50's, Andrew Teale 66.2.

Full result for week later this afternoon.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to EAL on being the least terrible this week

[middleenglander]

With just the Moray, Heldon & Laich by-election this week, we have:

33.7+10=43.7 East Anglian Lefty
35.3+10=45.3 tonyotim
38.2+10=48.2 Pete Whitehead
40.7+10=50.7 greatkingrat
42.0+10=52.0 phildav76

42.9+10=52.9 Dibs
42.9+10=52.9 Mark Senior
48.4+10=58.4 Arthur Figgis
48.4+10=58.4 Robert Waller
49.7+10=59.7 hempie

56.2+10=66.2 Andrew Teale

Objections please by noon Sunday.

4 contests next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 on Thursday.

[andrewteale]

I actually thought Hamilton was the best-placed independent and would come from behind to win. At least I'm not too far behind the field.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 8, 2013 20:19:10 GMT andrewteale said:

I actually thought Hamilton was the best-placed independent and would come from behind to win. At least I'm not too far behind the field.

Well he was a former councillor, but the fact he lost half his vote share and came 8th behind 3 other independants in the ward where he was an incumbent councillor until last May was maybe not too promising a sign