Prediction competition for March 2013

[East Anglian Lefty]

Fenland DC, Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary
Con 39
UKIP 28
LD 27
ED 6

Lewisham LBC, Evelyn
Lab 64
PBF 13
Con 11
LD 9
UKIP 3

Tendring DC, Harwich West
Lab 51
Con 32
CRP 14
LD 3

[marksenior]

My forecasts

Fenland LD 36 Con 31 UKIP 28 Eng Dem 5
Lewisham Lab 60 LD 13 LPBP 12 UKIP 9 Con 6
Tendring Lab 42 LD 25 Con 22 CRP 11

[dibs]

FENLAND - Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary
LIBDEM 40 CON 35 UKIP 20 ENGDEM 5

LEWISHAM - Evelyn
LAB 55 LIBDEM 20 CON 10 RAYMOND 9 UKIP 6

TENDRING - Harwich West
LAB 50 CON 30 LIBDEM 10 HENDERSON 10

[hempie]

Fenland, Parson Drove & Wisbech St Mary: LD 40, Con 37, UKIP 18, Eng Dem 5
Lewisham, Evelyn: Lab 62,LPBP 13, LD 11, Con 9, UKIP 5
Tendring, Harwich West: Lab 44, Con 33, CRP 18, LD 5

[greatkingrat]

FENLAND - LD 46, Con 38, UKIP 12, ED 4
LEWISHAM - Lab 64, LD 12, Con 9, LPBP 8, UKIP 7
TENDRING - Lab 44, Con 34, CRP 15, LD 7

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 27, 2013 23:01:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Lewisham LB - Evelyn

Lab  68.6%
LD     9.5%
Con   8.8%
LPBP 8.6%
UKIP  4.5%


Fenland - Parsons Drove & Wisbech St Mary

Con  40.7%
LD    32.7%
UKIP 22.4%
ED     4.2%


Tendring - Harwich West

Lab  42.3%
Con 37.6%
CRP 14.5%
LD     5.6%

[Philip Davies]

Mar 27, 2013 23:44:02 GMT Philip Davies said:

FENLAND - Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary

David BROKER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 28.9
Maria GOLDSPINK (English Democrats - "Putting England First") 5.3
Mary LANE (Liberal Democrat) 31.6
Alan LAY (UKIP) 34.2


LEWISHAM - Evelyn

Olufunke ABIDOYE (The Labour Party Candidate) 70.0
Simon NUNDY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 10.3
Paul OAKLEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 2.5
Barbara RAYMOND (Lewisham People Before Profit) 11.1
Bill TOWN (Liberal Democrats) 6.1


TENDRING - Harwich West

Simon BANKS (Liberal Democrats) 8.3
John HAWKINS (The Labour Party Candidate) 41.7
Steven HENDERSON (Community Representatives Party) 12.5
Hugh THOMPSON (Conservative Party Candidate) 37.5

[Tony Otim]

Mar 27, 2013 10:39:28 GMT Tony Otim said:

Tendring

Lab 46.7
Con 32.8
CR 10.8
LD 9.7


Lewisham
Lab 61.3
LD 11.2
PBP 10.1
Con 9.8
UKIP 7.6


Fenland
LD 41.2
Con 36.6
UKIP 17.9
ED 4.3

[andrewteale]

EVELYN: Lab 73 LPBP 9 C 8 LD 6 UKIP 4
HARWICH WEST: Lab 47 C 35 CRP 13 LD 5
PARSON DROVE AND WISBECH ST MARY: LD 44 C 34 UKIP 20 EDP 2

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm surprised that only myself and EAL have gone for a Tory hold in Fenland. I'm hopeful his prediction is based on some local knowledge (which he enjoys in Tendring also)

[East Anglian Lefty]

Not really. It was based upon the result in 2011 clearly being a personal vote for the successful LD candidate, whilst the current LD candidate was a couple of hundred votes further back. Also, Steve Tierney was on the ballot for the Tories, and that man has an unenviable record of losing what ought to be safe seats. If UKIP had a local candidate and if the anti-immigration activism in Wisbech was a bit less poisonously loony, I'd have tipped them instead.

I've also got no inside knowledge about the Harwich by-election. It's on the opposite side of Tendring from my parents' house, and I rarely have reason to go there. I'm more interested in Mark's prediction that the Lib Dems will get a quarter of the vote there, because there's no recent tradition of Lib Dem strength in the town

[Pete Whitehead]

I found that intriguing too and noted the same re: the LD candidate in Fenland

[marksenior]

[quote author="East Anglian Lefty" source="/post/65451/thread" timestamp="1364475304"
I've also got no inside knowledge about the Harwich by-election. It's on the opposite side of Tendring from my parents' house, and I rarely have reason to go there. I'm more interested in Mark's prediction that the Lib Dems will get a quarter of the vote there, because there's no recent tradition of Lib Dem strength in the town[/quote]

I am taking note of the ALDC report on the Tendring byelection which says that the Lib Dems are for the first time in this part of Essex fighting the byelection with a full blown campaign . I doubt that this will be enough to win starting from scratch but it should give the LD's a respectable vote share .

[East Anglian Lefty]

Yeah, I saw the report. All due respect to Gary Scott, who's a pretty good district councillor, but I suspect he's fibbing.

[erlend]

Gary does know how to campaign even if his media coverage is seriously dodgier than doc's!

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week with Arthur Figgis again over-sleeping or something.

Fenland: 7 lib Dem gains from Conservative, East Anglian Lefty & Pete Whitehead a Conservative hold whilst PhilDav plumps for a UKIP gain.
Lewisham: 100% Labour hold with 6 having the Lib Dems a long way behind in second and 4 the LPBP in second
Tendring: 100% Labour hold with Mark Senior going for the Lib Dems on 25% in second whilst everyone else has then in 4th or equal 3rd on 3% to 10%

[middleenglander]

The Tendring result has been confirmed although the Labour vote in Lewisham was 978 and not 918 as reported last night. Although the faults are slightly different, the overall result has not changed in the amended figures below.

Fenland DC, Parson Drove & Wisbech St Mary
Pete Whitehead 11.1 faults, East Anglian Lefty 11.3, Mark Senior 26.2+10, Dibs & hempie 27.3+10, tonyotim 28.3+10, PhilDav 30.4+10, Andrew Teale 32.9+10, Robert Waller 33.3+10, greatkingrat 37.3+10

Lewisham LB, Evelyn - amended
hempie & Mark Senior 23.7 faults, tonyotim 25.9, East Anglian Lefty 27.7, greatkingrat 30.1, Dibs 31.4, Pete Whitehead 33.5, PhilDav 35.3, Andrew Teale 36.7, Robert Waller 39.7

Tendring DC, Harwich West:
Mark Senior 28.8 faults, hempie 29.7, greatkingrat 31.7, PhilDav 34.1, tonyotim 34.7, Pete Whitehead 35.5, Dibs 35.7, Andrew Teale & Robert Waller 39.7, East Anglian Lefty 41.7

and for the week:
Pete Whitehead 80.2 faults, East Anglian Lefty 80.8, Mark Senior 88.7, hempie 90.8, tonyotim 99.0, Dibs 104.5, greatkingrat 109.2, PhilDav 109.8, Andrew Teale 119.3, Robert Waller 122.8

and for the month of March

436.7 Pete Whitehead
483.4 East Anglian Lefty
506.6 Mark Senior
522.5 Robert Waller
529.7 tonyotim

548.3 hempie
549.3 greatkingrat
551.3 PhilDav
606.4 Andrew Teale
841.9 Dibs

Objections please by noon Sunday.

New thread for the April contest - if you want one.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Pete again for the week and the month!