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Post by andrew111 on Jun 20, 2021 20:38:00 GMT
Lewes was Lib Dem from 1997 to 2015. Hardly 'Blue Wall'. What is he smoking? Well, if you are going to go for this trite wall analogy, then the red wall was a thing on the map after the 2017 election, and so is the blue wall. But they are arguing I guess that they are blue seats that might change colour in a general election and on that basis Lewes is more likely that a lot of the others.. |
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Post by where2travel on Jun 20, 2021 20:41:11 GMT
I don't think it's anything much about a "wall" this, that or the other (that just being a lazy media word now). It's just current Conservative seats that are in the south or east of England, that voted Remain, and have an above average proportion of graduates.
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Post by where2travel on Jun 20, 2021 20:44:48 GMT
Lewes was Lib Dem from 1997 to 2015. Hardly 'Blue Wall'. What is he smoking? Stroud at the other end of his "wall" is hardly known for it's longstanding Tory traditions either! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2021 20:45:27 GMT
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 20, 2021 20:49:33 GMT
Lewes was Lib Dem from 1997 to 2015. Hardly 'Blue Wall'. What is he smoking? Difficult to know what definition he is using. Don’t know why few seats in Essex or Kent appear. Presumably due to the lower ‘Remain’ votes in those counties. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 20, 2021 20:57:21 GMT
Dignity in defeat is a fine thing. He sounds like a child explaining away a 6-0 defeat in the local U-11 football cup. "Some of their boys were bigger than us, no way were they under 11; the ref was biased; the pitch was to blame; nobody passed to me; etc etc"The cope in this thread is absolutely glorious. A real chef's kiss to add to the salty comments up thread I'm sure you're right. Though I'd have a better idea if I knew the meaning of a "cope" in this context or what a "chef's kiss" might involve.  |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 20, 2021 21:05:51 GMT
Lewes was Lib Dem from 1997 to 2015. Hardly 'Blue Wall'. What is he smoking? Difficult to know what definition he is using. Don’t know why few seats in Essex or Kent appear. On the map it says the definition is current Conservative seats that voted Remain (thereby ruling out much of Kent and Essex as most voted Leave) and have a higher than the national average number of people with degrees, which probably accounts for the remaining Kent/Essex seats. So, unlike the so-called Red Wall, which is usually based on Labour’s longevity, this goes no further back than 2019. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 20, 2021 21:25:47 GMT
Difficult to know what definition he is using. Don’t know why few seats in Essex or Kent appear. On the map it says the definition is current Conservative seats that voted Remain (thereby ruling out much of Kent and Essex as most voted Leave) and have a higher than the national average number of people with degrees, which probably accounts for the remaining Kent/Essex seats. So, unlike the so-called Red Wall, which is usually based on Labour’s longevity, this goes no further back than 2019. Yes, perhaps accompanied by a definition of the red wall as the opposite, which might include Batley and Spen but not Colne Valley, and not the Labour seats in university cities like Manchester that voted Remain |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 20, 2021 22:27:55 GMT
Dignity in defeat is a fine thing. He sounds like a child explaining away a 6-0 defeat in the local U-11 football cup. "Some of their boys were bigger than us, no way were they under 11; the ref was biased; the pitch was to blame; nobody passed to me; etc etc"I would be pretty surprised if Sarah "promised to cancel HS2". However if she promised to stop the Tory Planning Bill she is likely to be successful. She didn't do anything of the sort, which is presumably why he says "canvassers promised it on the doorstep" (which can't be proved or disproved either way) rather than quoting her or a leaflet. She did say she would have voted against if in the HoC at the time, as of course did Cheryl Gillan. The Green candidate did say she would stop it if elected and stated that anyone who said otherwise wasn't serious about it, apparently attempting to outflank us. Fleet is not only a loser but a liar. It's part of the attempt to claim the election was fought and lost on HS2 and Nimbyism, also made here, which I may be arsed to demolish at some point. (Equally funny is his and the Torygraph's view that the way to stop repeats of C & A is to go hard Thatcherite fiscally. The latter also seems to think that heat pumps may have something to do with it, it appears that Charles Moore is in a meaningful loving but non-sexual relationship with his gas boiler or something.) |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 21, 2021 12:12:28 GMT
Lewes was Lib Dem from 1997 to 2015. Hardly 'Blue Wall'. What is he smoking? Stroud at the other end of his "wall" is hardly known for it's longstanding Tory traditions either! Voted for the Tories at every single GE between 1950 and 1992, mind you  |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 21, 2021 12:16:45 GMT
PE uploaded spreadsheet of the 'Blue Wall':-
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 21, 2021 12:22:46 GMT
And another Twitter thread about the 'Blue Wall':-
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 21, 2021 13:07:26 GMT
PE uploaded spreadsheet of the 'Blue Wall':- I think that is a reasonable listing of seats that could be lost by the Tories if they are perceived as hard Brexit and favouring "unwoke" Brexit voters over "Heseltonians" (to apply a simplistic name in the grand tradition...). But to win the ones vulnerable to Labour, the Labour Party have to avoid pivoting too far away from the Remain stance they took in 2019. And there are seats they hold with similar demographics that could fall. I am pretty sure the Lib Dems will take a stance firmly against the hard Brexit being pursued by the Tories, and probably so will the Greens, so there will be other places for the significant number of left of centre voters for whom Europe is still a defining issue to go. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 21, 2021 13:27:26 GMT
PE uploaded spreadsheet of the 'Blue Wall':- I think that is a reasonable listing of seats that could be lost by the Tories if they are perceived as hard Brexit and favouring "unwoke" Brexit voters over "Heseltonians" (to apply a simplistic name in the grand tradition...). But to win the ones vulnerable to Labour, the Labour Party have to avoid pivoting too far away from the Remain stance they took in 2019. And there are seats they hold with similar demographics that could fall. I am pretty sure the Lib Dems will take a stance firmly against the hard Brexit being pursued by the Tories, and probably so will the Greens, so there will be other places for the significant number of left of centre voters for whom Europe is still a defining issue to go. We'll see how Batley goes although GG does complicate matters. The past 'Brexit' trends could well continue or even accelerate. Of course if the Lib Dems do become a Home Counties party their position on the spectrum would probably shift rightwards. Nigel Marriott has written about the 'Blue Sea'. Map and spreadsheet etc:- marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/hartlepool-batley-and-spen-chesham-and-amersham-by-elections/ |
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Post by hugh01 on Jun 21, 2021 20:28:25 GMT
New MP takes her oath
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 21, 2021 20:29:57 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 21, 2021 21:16:06 GMT
That Welsh version sounds pretty unaccented. Native speaker? EDIT. Wikipedia reveals she was born in Corwen, so her facility in the language is unsurprising. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 21, 2021 21:21:05 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 21, 2021 21:34:49 GMT
I may have put us at cross-purposes. Her accent when taking the oath that wasn't an oath (trademark Boothroyd) in Welsh suggested to me a native speaker, and given the confirmation of her Corwen background that seems unsurprising. I haven't heard much of her speaking in English so don't know if her English is accented. An upbringing in Corwen probably wouldn't give her a caricature accent. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 21, 2021 21:41:41 GMT
I may have put us at cross-purposes. Her accent when taking the oath that wasn't an oath (trademark Boothroyd) in Welsh suggested to me a native speaker, and given the confirmation of her Corwen background that seems unsurprising. I haven't heard much of her speaking in English so don't know if her English is accented. An upbringing in Corwen probably wouldn't give her a caricature accent. Her acceptance speech was, to me, pretty close to RP, with no particular regional accent at all. But I believe she's lived in England for a long time, certainly long enough to have lost any strong accent. |
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