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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 19, 2021 12:57:01 GMT
I was walking round the constituency on polling day and didn't see a single Conservative poster in or outside a house or flat. That may have been a sign they weren't going to do very well. There were a fair number of LD posters. I saw a few in Chesham itself but yes it was on a level not far off the Green and Labour posters/boards and nowhere near the scale of the Lib Dem diamonds. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 19, 2021 14:03:58 GMT
It will be very interesting to see if they raise their head above the parapet on this. Unfortunately, it'll be tied up with the usual 'aah, but we believe local people should make these decisions.' Or it could be that not everyone agrees that the Tory's simplistic approach to planning 'reform' will achieve the goal you describe - rather that it will allow developers to further expand their land-banks and profits, while failing to address the most pressing problems - land-banking and failing to build the types of property that are most needed. I could equally say that Tory lack of support for LVT is demonstrative of their complete lack of interest in solving the housing crisis that afflicts our young people. Just because you think relaxing controls on development is the answer to the lack of affordable housing, it doesn't mean everyone has to agree with you... I would be grateful if you could point out where I have said anything about the proposed planning reform. As it happens I support the principle of LVT, I just question whether it can be implemented successfully. In any event let’s not pretend that your campaigning on planning reform was anything other than a NIMBY dog whistle. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 19, 2021 16:26:40 GMT
I thought you came across well on the local radio That’s very kind of you to say that, thank you. Until this election, the only radio I’d ever done was an interview back when I was a councillor about something I wasn’t really that interested in or knowledgeable about and it was a total car crash - fortunately they decided the sound quality wasn’t good enough to broadcast so I was saved the embarrassment of it going public. This time I was much better prepared! Well, you sounded like a normal person not a politician trying to score points or make mainly political points. As you said it was not very fertile ground for your Party and you did not have big expectations. So you just enjoyed the circus, was my impression. The Green candidate was impressive in her way but extremely messianic! I felt that a conversation with her would very quickly become a catalogue of my lifestyle failings... Whereas a pint with you would be fine! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,904
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2021 16:28:48 GMT
Tbh its not clear why scoring precisely 0.1% worse than Winchester in 1997 (when Labour led the Tories by 30+ points in the polls) has the almost mystical significance that some on both ends of the political spectrum are trying to claim. It doesn't have significance on the political spectrum, but it does have significance on the psephological anorak geeky statistical facts spectrum. Anyway, it wasn't precisely 0.1% worse. It was only 0.0967% worse. And that is absolutely fine, but you also know its not why most people are citing it. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 19, 2021 16:39:24 GMT
It doesn't have significance on the political spectrum, but it does have significance on the psephological anorak geeky statistical facts spectrum. Anyway, it wasn't precisely 0.1% worse. It was only 0.0967% worse. And that is absolutely fine, but you also know its not why most people are citing it. Although yellowperil has illustrated that from the point of view of the right it does make sense tactically to make hay with Labour's 'poor' performance, even if it does appear psephologically illiterate |
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Post by La Fontaine on Jun 19, 2021 17:07:21 GMT
Relaxing controls on development has so far resulted in crap housing which will cost the taxpayer millions to put right in the future. Nah,make that billions. Besides we are now approaching the point where development is slated for sections of the country which is running out of basic supplies - such as water. (Looks at parts of Essex/Suffolk). One issued which is at play in parts of Hertfordshire is chalk stream disappearance due to over extraction - what then the price 0f a developer profit extraction 4 bed detached with two big lawns and a double garage? And I could point to one LD run Borough which is enthusiastically allowing housing to be built in all parts (including on golf courses and the green belt) where it is the Tories who are running on a straight NIMBY ticket... As has been pointed out - there are over 1m planning permissions for building outstanding in this country- local government is doing it's bit but why build now when rising margin expectations are essentially banked? Whereas if you give housing associations and most councils the wherewithal to build affordable homes, they will build them. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,618 
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Post by ricmk on Jun 19, 2021 18:28:06 GMT
A couple of thoughts for the weekend after:
1-Would a Layla Moran-led Lib Dem party have won just as well? I suspect there would have been even more keen young activists, but I wonder if the party would have been seen as less credible in the eyes of the Tory switchers?
2-Would a different Tory candidate have done better? For all his business acumen, it sounds like Peter Fleet was a fish out of water on the campaign trail, although much of that may have been the association having no idea how to run a seriously contested election.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 19, 2021 18:31:12 GMT
1. Moran would be horrendous in Tory held seats. Like Dan Hannan in Brighton, Liverpool or Bristol.
2. Not knowing how to run a serious campaign would be a big issue. They probably lacked data across the seat, and national by election machines tend to be a bit... shit.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jun 19, 2021 19:04:26 GMT
I was very pleased with this result for three reasons. Firstly I was able to make a few quid as anybody who failed to see the value in the Lib Dem odds has no business betting. Secondly I was happy to see this bloody awful government given a kicking. Thirdly it was nice to see the Lib Dems remind everyone that they are the most dishonest bunch of shysters that you could ever be unfortunate enough to meet. Their campaign was a quite simply superb appeal to selfish nimbyism and the maintenance of wealth by the comfortable middle class. Next time any of these sods start talking about affordable housing or opportunities for the young we all know exactly how seriously to take them. Those fine words in the preamble of their constitution that they are so proud of mean nothing. There is no principle that they hold that they would not sell if the number of votes offered was high enough. They have re-established themselves as the ultimate opportunists in British politics. Not a betting person, but agree with points 2 and 3. Most people praising your third point seem to come from elsewhere on the political spectrum. I am happy to reconcile doing so with the fact I've voted for Ms Green before and voted LD as recently as last month (albeit in a meaningless election for a position that shouldn't exist). When we had a Lib Dem MP around here, she often wore a 'green LD' badge and claimed to be in favour of wind farms, but when residents of a village on the edge of the constituency got together to oppose such a development, she jumped on the bandwagon to support their objections. And of course none of that pivot to populist nimbyism stopped her from losing heavily at the following 3 general elections. Even though I still voted for her at the middle one. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 19, 2021 19:38:53 GMT
The percentage of LD MPs who are women has increased from 64% to 67% with the C&A by-election result. www.libdems.org.uk/mpsAnd those named Sarah from 9% to 17% - blatant "Sarahism"! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 19, 2021 20:02:39 GMT
The percentage of LD MPs who are women has increased from 64% to 67% with the C&A by-election result. www.libdems.org.uk/mpsAnd those named Sarah from 9% to 17% - blatant "Sarahism"! We can be thankful for the small mercy that none of them are called Sarah Teather |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 19, 2021 20:03:36 GMT
The percentage of LD MPs who are women has increased from 64% to 67% with the C&A by-election result. www.libdems.org.uk/mpsAnd those named Sarah from 9% to 17% - blatant "Sarahism"! At least we don't suffer from Sarahphobia! |
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Post by samdwebber on Jun 19, 2021 20:13:48 GMT
A couple of thoughts for the weekend after: 1-Would a Layla Moran-led Lib Dem party have won just as well? I suspect there would have been even more keen young activists, but I wonder if the party would have been seen as less credible in the eyes of the Tory switchers? 2-Would a different Tory candidate have done better? For all his business acumen, it sounds like Peter Fleet was a fish out of water on the campaign trail, although much of that may have been the association having no idea how to run a seriously contested election. As soon as I saw the shortlist on ConHome I suspected Nikki Da Costa would get it. Was surprised she didnt and perhaps would have been a far better choice, but perhaps she would have been too closely associated with the PM? I guess whoever the Tory candidate was it was going to be a struggle to defend the seat given the special circumstances. Mr Fleet didnt seem to cut it though and from what I saw the Tory leaflets were poor, their organisation was poor especially on polling day from what I heard and saw, social media was very poor and 'mutual aid' just sounds horrendously dull to me even though that is what all of us offer when we travel to help out a campaign like that. Im sure a lot of Tories are reflecting over the result. Proud to have seen "the kitchen sink, the dog and the cat" getting thrown at such a special part of the country. We always knew we could do it and Im so pleased we were able to prove the doubters wrong, especially those on here who assumed the Tories would walk it as they simply always have in this seat. But as I said might it have been closer with a young, female candidate succeeding Dame Cheryl given the winning Lib Dem candidate; perhaps. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 19, 2021 20:14:02 GMT
1. Moran would be horrendous in Tory held seats. Like Dan Hannan in Brighton, Liverpool or Bristol. 2. Not knowing how to run a serious campaign would be a big issue. They probably lacked data across the seat, and national by election machines tend to be a bit... shit. Presumably not counting the Tory seat she gained in 2017, and held with an increased majority in 2019, reducing the Tory plus UKIP/BXP vote by 12.1% in the process? I don't think it would have made any difference in this by-election, although I prefer Davey as leader. Layla made many visits to the constituency |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,765
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Post by right on Jun 19, 2021 20:29:52 GMT
I would like to clarify that I liked this for the third point primarily (and the first a bit) and don't endorse the second. I'm not against the government getting a kicking per se and would have been delighted if it had been delivered by our friend london(ex)tory or any similar kind of outfit, but I will never back the Lib Dems against the Conservatives, even at the times when I have actively hated the latter (I will always hate the Lib Dems more). Certainly not pleased with the result, but happy with the two by by-products mentioned (firstly and thirdly) Secretly I was hoping for a very narrow Lib Dem win, with a majority less than my vote. Obviously that didn’t happen in the end but it was always a distinct possibility. In those circumstances the govt would have got its utterly deserved kicking, I could have claimed to have had an impact, and the residents of C&A would only be saddled with a Lib Dem MP for a couple of years or so. Given the Tory candidate’s evidently very successful career in business, he was far less impressive as a candidate than he should have been. The only thing notable about him during the campaign was his height, which meant in all the campaign photos I saw on Tory friends’ Facebook feeds he was placed at the back and not immediately obvious as the candidate at all. I wondered how the candidate would do and I've not really heard anything from Tories (grumbling or otherwise). It does seem to be the way that successful businessmen tend to bomb in politics, particularly if they are given a stressful position early in their career. Heseltine is the exception here, and I'm sure there are others that we tend to think of as politicians first - but it is notable just how bad good businessmen seem to be in politics. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,765
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Post by right on Jun 19, 2021 20:31:39 GMT
Do you also get any joy from the fact that it's the worst ever result for Labour in a parliamentary by-election? Tbh its not clear why scoring precisely 0.1% worse than Winchester in 1997 (when Labour led the Tories by 30+ points in the polls) has the almost mystical significance that some on both ends of the political spectrum are trying to claim. Because by-election performance has become really important for the Labour leadership at the moment and it was essentially irrelevant to them in the afterglow of the 97 landslide. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 19, 2021 20:40:39 GMT
A couple of thoughts for the weekend after: 1-Would a Layla Moran-led Lib Dem party have won just as well? I suspect there would have been even more keen young activists, but I wonder if the party would have been seen as less credible in the eyes of the Tory switchers? 2-Would a different Tory candidate have done better? For all his business acumen, it sounds like Peter Fleet was a fish out of water on the campaign trail, although much of that may have been the association having no idea how to run a seriously contested election. 1. An interesting point. I think you might be right on both points. I have to say I think that Davey is a good media performer and delivers his lines very well - although it is rather easy to overstate how much the electorate have heard or seen or formed much opinion about any Lib Dem leader until after their first General Election campaign. I actually think - interestingly all the party leaders have considerable strengths as media performers - I guess you don't become leader if you're not good on the media - and probably for me actually the most personable are the Green co-leaders. 2. I am not sure that the local party of any of the (main) parties runs their party's by-election campaign. I didn't hear any of the candidates in action until after the election but I suspect I shared that with the vast majority of the constituents of C&A. The best candidate of course is a cardboard cut-out and I am not sure that it matters two jots - may be one jot unless you are found out with some dodgy previous social media comments or make a gaffe such as I don't know slagging off the area you want to represent in a blog post during the campaign but that really should be down to the campaign minders. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,765
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Post by right on Jun 19, 2021 20:46:23 GMT
Secretly I was hoping for a very narrow Lib Dem win, with a majority less than my vote. Obviously that didn’t happen in the end but it was always a distinct possibility. In those circumstances the govt would have got its utterly deserved kicking, I could have claimed to have had an impact, and the residents of C&A would only be saddled with a Lib Dem MP for a couple of years or so. Given the Tory candidate’s evidently very successful career in business, he was far less impressive as a candidate than he should have been. The only thing notable about him during the campaign was his height, which meant in all the campaign photos I saw on Tory friends’ Facebook feeds he was placed at the back and not immediately obvious as the candidate at all. Skills which make someone a successful businessman don't necessarily transfer to a by election, though, or indeed, to politics more broadly. Law, education and the third sector seem very well represented. It would be interesting to see what roles MPS who worked in business fulfilled. I've just finished reading AJP Taylor's History of England 1914-45, and as is his wont he has a number of hobby horses and one of these is the number of businessmen who were on the Conservative benches from after the First World War (it seems that the sheer numbers of them were a relative novelty despite Augustus Melmotte). Baldwin and Bonar Law were both reasonably successful businessmen, and I think that Macmillan wouldn't count as he was far less hands on in the family business than Balfour. But there seemed to have been quite some apprenticeship in the background of politics before getting into any pivotal role. David Davis could be seen in that model, although not quite breaking to the top. There does seem to have been quite a lot more front rank politicians (in all four main parties) coming in from various parts of the City - Cable, Salmond, Rees Mogg, Laws, Sunak, Byrne - rather than businesses where you make things. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,765
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Post by right on Jun 19, 2021 20:50:47 GMT
A couple of thoughts for the weekend after: 1-Would a Layla Moran-led Lib Dem party have won just as well? I suspect there would have been even more keen young activists, but I wonder if the party would have been seen as less credible in the eyes of the Tory switchers? 2-Would a different Tory candidate have done better? For all his business acumen, it sounds like Peter Fleet was a fish out of water on the campaign trail, although much of that may have been the association having no idea how to run a seriously contested election. 1. An interesting point. I think you might be right on both points. I have to say I think that Davey is a good media performer and delivers his lines very well - although it is rather easy to overstate how much the electorate have heard or seen or formed much opinion about any Lib Dem leader until after their first General Election campaign. I actually think - interestingly all the party leaders have considerable strengths as media performers - I guess you don't become leader if you're not good on the media - and probably for me actually the most personable are the Green co-leaders. 2. I am not sure that the local party of any of the (main) parties runs their party's by-election campaign. I didn't hear any of the candidates in action until after the election but I suspect I shared that with the vast majority of the constituents of C&A. The best candidate of course is a cardboard cut-out and I am not sure that it matters two jots - may be one jot unless you are found out with some dodgy previous social media comments or make a gaffe such as I don't know slagging off the area you want to represent in a blog post during the campaign but that really should be down to the campaign minders. I remember talking to someone involved in the Kensington by-election campaign in the late 1980s who said that CCO were losing the campaign and gave it over in the last two weeks to the local association who had a number of very well canvassed wards and just ground out a machine politics win. I doubt if we'd have a Constituency Association that could school CCHQ these days. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 19, 2021 20:52:03 GMT
Yes. That doesn't surprise me.
Geoffrey Robinson was in the motor industry and both Heseltine and Robert Maxwell were publishers. All self made men.
Archie Norman was in retail. But was a classic example of someone who didn't really like the world of politics
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