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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 18, 2021 17:59:49 GMT
”Normal practice” because it is an explicit legal requirement Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it the fact that the RO in one of the Plymouth constituencies, at the 2017 GE, posess ward-level figures that allowed the realisation that votes from one ward had been omitted from the initially declared result? Or was that ballot paper numbers only? There was certainly an incident in Crewe where we were shown the provisional result was shown to us and looked "wrong" - the total vote was c.130 short of what we were expecting. I insisted something was wrong, and that it was almost certainly that a specific polling district (it happened to be AA) was missing. (The turnout in each of our four polling districts were generally c.130, c.150, c.450, c.450 total 1180 plus PVs) Despite the person running our count insisting everything had been counted they were eventually persuaded to check. And found the AA box still with the ballot papers inside. So deducting the final result from the provisional result would have given us the AA split, but only under those particular circumstances. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 18, 2021 18:00:20 GMT
The Lib Dems were probably also helped by fading memories of the Coalition (which of course was pre both Brexit and Covid), and gradually getting their pre-2010 mojo back of being a generic protest party when it needs to be.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,791
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Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 18:35:55 GMT
Sigh. If an MP wants to go off and make lots of money in business, then no, there is nothing the whips can do. However, if they want to be NATO Secretary-General, Director-General of the WTO or something at the UN it requires UK government support or it is not going to happen. If they have a seat which would be at risk, the whips/party leadership can just say no. But the potential of getting an UK person in that position is also something the government considers. Having a close ally lead NATO may well be worth a by-election loss, given the size of the majority. It also could get an effective critic away from Parliament and in to a role where she would be expected to steer away from domestic politics. If she retained her seat during that period, or timed it to coincide with locals then the effects could be managed down. Whatever, it's probably a good time to strengthen the campaigning machine in her seat. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,016
Member is Online
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 18, 2021 21:06:29 GMT
Don't forget the 17.2% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem in the Peterborough by-election! And slightly more seriously Witney, which we would have won starting from second place, very likely I'm not sure you would. The Labour vote in Witney is much harder to squeeze and much of the Tory vote is more community politics based which makes it quite resilient, although occasionally prone to an en masse defection I did that by-election. The biggest barrier to Labour voters switching was that they were second at the prior election. Some even said that if they were convinced we were the challengers they would switch immediately. That's not to say we would have won, but it would have certainly been significantly closer. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 21:11:50 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 21:14:53 GMT
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it the fact that the RO in one of the Plymouth constituencies, at the 2017 GE, posess ward-level figures that allowed the realisation that votes from one ward had been omitted from the initially declared result? Or was that ballot paper numbers only? There was certainly an incident in Crewe where we were shown the provisional result was shown to us and looked "wrong" - the total vote was c.130 short of what we were expecting. I insisted something was wrong, and that it was almost certainly that a specific polling district (it happened to be AA) was missing. (The turnout in each of our four polling districts were generally c.130, c.150, c.450, c.450 total 1180 plus PVs) Despite the person running our count insisting everything had been counted they were eventually persuaded to check. And found the AA box still with the ballot papers inside. So deducting the final result from the provisional result would have given us the AA split, but only under those particular circumstances. But you know that from the verification, and indeed checking the number of ballots in each box (against the number issued, but also to determine turnout), so it is not a case of counting the votes for each Party in each box |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 21:48:26 GMT
A nicely written piece but almost complete BS. It is a proven fact - as Cummings has said - and Nick Tyrone, John Rentoul, the FT Jouno that is eating his hat have amply demonstrated in the past few days that political pundits spout complete and utter fact free BS IMHO. In fact that is their job. Get the physicists in! Seriously! |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 21:51:02 GMT
A nicely written piece but almost complete BS. It is a proven fact - as Cummings has said - and Nick Tyrone, John Rentoul, the FT Jouno that is eating his hat have amply demonstrated in the past few days that political pundits spout complete and utter fact free BS IMHO. In fact that is their job. Get the physicists in! Seriously! OK - I should have checked the bio "Gawain Towler is a commentator, former director of communications for the Brexit Party and is consulting for Reform UK." and I now understand why but of course it applies equally to left, liberal and centre pundits as well. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Jun 18, 2021 22:53:10 GMT
What you have written is essentially correct. Not a fortnight before the election, CCHQ thought this would be a comfortable hold with a bit of a swing to the Lib Dems. Only in that last fortnight did they realise there was a real campaign going on here - but they were still reasonably confident on election day.
However, that article is bo**cks as the Lib Dems would say.
Clearly the local party's campaign gears aren't fully oiled, but that is the same for any party which has held a seat for a significant length of time. On the other hand, the Lib Dem really didn't have a great deal of infrastructure here with no local councillor base to build from which is typical for them.
I think the election had very little really to do with Brexit on a micro scale (macro realignment is arguable, but it's obviously too early to tell).
Obviously a significant chunk was local, but, to me, the key factor was that people in the seat obviously feel that the Johnson Tory party is not their Tory party. In some respects, similar to some people in Hartlepool who no longer see the current Labour party as their Labour party.
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 19, 2021 0:19:31 GMT
What you have written is essentially correct. Not a fortnight before the election, CCHQ thought this would be a comfortable hold with a bit of a swing to the Lib Dems. Only in that last fortnight did they realise there was a real campaign going on here - but they were still reasonably confident on election day.
However, that article is bo**cks as the Lib Dems would say.
Clearly the local party's campaign gears aren't fully oiled, but that is the same for any party which has held a seat for a significant length of time. On the other hand, the Lib Dem really didn't have a great deal of infrastructure here with no local councillor base to build from which is typical for them.
I think the election had very little really to do with Brexit on a micro scale (macro realignment is arguable, but it's obviously too early to tell).
Obviously a significant chunk was local, but, to me, the key factor was that people in the seat obviously feel that the Johnson Tory party is not their Tory party. In some respects, similar to some people in Hartlepool who no longer see the current Labour party as their Labour party.
Brexit put the Lib Dems into second place in 2019. That is the realignment and a significant part of the Tory vote in 2019 only stayed Tory for fear of Corbyn, and because they liked the MP. The election started with the 45% the Tories got in the locals, not the 55% they had in 2019. In the locals the none Tory vote was split 3 ways. The campaign united that and convinced another10% of Tory voters to switch. It was not about Brexit but the Remain voting Tories are not happy with the way Johnson has handled it (and the general air of sleaze in the cabinet) and are prepared to consider alternatives. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 19, 2021 3:44:28 GMT
What you have written is essentially correct. Not a fortnight before the election, CCHQ thought this would be a comfortable hold with a bit of a swing to the Lib Dems. Only in that last fortnight did they realise there was a real campaign going on here - but they were still reasonably confident on election day.
However, that article is bo**cks as the Lib Dems would say.
Clearly the local party's campaign gears aren't fully oiled, but that is the same for any party which has held a seat for a significant length of time. On the other hand, the Lib Dem really didn't have a great deal of infrastructure here with no local councillor base to build from which is typical for them.
I think the election had very little really to do with Brexit on a micro scale (macro realignment is arguable, but it's obviously too early to tell).
Obviously a significant chunk was local, but, to me, the key factor was that people in the seat obviously feel that the Johnson Tory party is not their Tory party. In some respects, similar to some people in Hartlepool who no longer see the current Labour party as their Labour party.
Brexit put the Lib Dems into second place in 2019. That is the realignment that was merely restoration of normal service. Yesyes obviously that hasn't happened everywhere but only in (for want of a better word) Greater Surrey, and obviously it had to happen before the by-election, but you were 2nd here in 10 out of the 13 elections since 1974. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 19, 2021 7:01:31 GMT
I was very pleased with this result for three reasons.
Firstly I was able to make a few quid as anybody who failed to see the value in the Lib Dem odds has no business betting.
Secondly I was happy to see this bloody awful government given a kicking.
Thirdly it was nice to see the Lib Dems remind everyone that they are the most dishonest bunch of shysters that you could ever be unfortunate enough to meet. Their campaign was a quite simply superb appeal to selfish nimbyism and the maintenance of wealth by the comfortable middle class. Next time any of these sods start talking about affordable housing or opportunities for the young we all know exactly how seriously to take them. Those fine words in the preamble of their constitution that they are so proud of mean nothing. There is no principle that they hold that they would not sell if the number of votes offered was high enough. They have re-established themselves as the ultimate opportunists in British politics.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 19, 2021 8:06:37 GMT
One is used to the Lib Dems doing well in by-elections over the years but this is very good even by their standards: "Over the years". Other than the unusual circumstances of Brecon & Radnor our first since 2010. 2006 I think, Dunfermline? |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 19, 2021 9:14:50 GMT
I was very pleased with this result for three reasons. Firstly I was able to make a few quid as anybody who failed to see the value in the Lib Dem odds has no business betting. Secondly I was happy to see this bloody awful government given a kicking. Thirdly it was nice to see the Lib Dems remind everyone that they are the most dishonest bunch of shysters that you could ever be unfortunate enough to meet. Their campaign was a quite simply superb appeal to selfish nimbyism and the maintenance of wealth by the comfortable middle class. Next time any of these sods start talking about affordable housing or opportunities for the young we all know exactly how seriously to take them. Those fine words in the preamble of their constitution that they are so proud of mean nothing. There is no principle that they hold that they would not sell if the number of votes offered was high enough. They have re-established themselves as the ultimate opportunists in British politics. Could you expand on this point since I don't think you've mentioned it before? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 19, 2021 9:26:27 GMT
I was very pleased with this result for three reasons. Firstly I was able to make a few quid as anybody who failed to see the value in the Lib Dem odds has no business betting. Secondly I was happy to see this bloody awful government given a kicking. Thirdly it was nice to see the Lib Dems remind everyone that they are the most dishonest bunch of shysters that you could ever be unfortunate enough to meet. Their campaign was a quite simply superb appeal to selfish nimbyism and the maintenance of wealth by the comfortable middle class. Next time any of these sods start talking about affordable housing or opportunities for the young we all know exactly how seriously to take them. Those fine words in the preamble of their constitution that they are so proud of mean nothing. There is no principle that they hold that they would not sell if the number of votes offered was high enough. They have re-established themselves as the ultimate opportunists in British politics. I would like to clarify that I liked this for the third point primarily (and the first a bit) and don't endorse the second. I'm not against the government getting a kicking per se and would have been delighted if it had been delivered by our friend london(ex)tory or any similar kind of outfit, but I will never back the Lib Dems against the Conservatives, even at the times when I have actively hated the latter (I will always hate the Lib Dems more). Certainly not pleased with the result, but happy with the two by by-products mentioned (firstly and thirdly) |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jun 19, 2021 9:33:03 GMT
I was very pleased with this result for three reasons. Firstly I was able to make a few quid as anybody who failed to see the value in the Lib Dem odds has no business betting. Secondly I was happy to see this bloody awful government given a kicking. Thirdly it was nice to see the Lib Dems remind everyone that they are the most dishonest bunch of shysters that you could ever be unfortunate enough to meet. Their campaign was a quite simply superb appeal to selfish nimbyism and the maintenance of wealth by the comfortable middle class. Next time any of these sods start talking about affordable housing or opportunities for the young we all know exactly how seriously to take them. Those fine words in the preamble of their constitution that they are so proud of mean nothing. There is no principle that they hold that they would not sell if the number of votes offered was high enough. They have re-established themselves as the ultimate opportunists in British politics. You say the sweetest things. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 19, 2021 9:37:54 GMT
I was very pleased with this result for three reasons. Firstly I was able to make a few quid as anybody who failed to see the value in the Lib Dem odds has no business betting. Secondly I was happy to see this bloody awful government given a kicking. Thirdly it was nice to see the Lib Dems remind everyone that they are the most dishonest bunch of shysters that you could ever be unfortunate enough to meet. Their campaign was a quite simply superb appeal to selfish nimbyism and the maintenance of wealth by the comfortable middle class. Next time any of these sods start talking about affordable housing or opportunities for the young we all know exactly how seriously to take them. Those fine words in the preamble of their constitution that they are so proud of mean nothing. There is no principle that they hold that they would not sell if the number of votes offered was high enough. They have re-established themselves as the ultimate opportunists in British politics. I would like to clarify that I liked this for the third point primarily (and the first a bit) and don't endorse the second. I'm not against the government getting a kicking per se and would have been delighted if it had been delivered by our friend london(ex)tory or any similar kind of outfit, but I will never back the Lib Dems against the Conservatives, even at the times when I have actively hated the latter (I will always hate the Lib Dems more). Certainly not pleased with the result, but happy with the two by by-products mentioned (firstly and thirdly) Secretly I was hoping for a very narrow Lib Dem win, with a majority less than my vote. Obviously that didn’t happen in the end but it was always a distinct possibility. In those circumstances the govt would have got its utterly deserved kicking, I could have claimed to have had an impact, and the residents of C&A would only be saddled with a Lib Dem MP for a couple of years or so. Given the Tory candidate’s evidently very successful career in business, he was far less impressive as a candidate than he should have been. The only thing notable about him during the campaign was his height, which meant in all the campaign photos I saw on Tory friends’ Facebook feeds he was placed at the back and not immediately obvious as the candidate at all. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 19, 2021 9:42:12 GMT
Well that’s that then. Always thought a Lib Dem win was possible based on what I was seeing on the ground, although staggered by the scale of their victory. Hartlepool honeymoon is very clearly over! On a personal level I’m reasonably contented by my result - in a two horse race it was always going to be challenging to make a major breakthrough, and in the end I was only beaten by long-established parties all of whom have MPs already. Worked hard, learned a lot and had some fun along the way. Strongly recommend to anyone on here - if you ever get the chance to stand in a parliamentary by-election, grab it with both hands. A wonderful experience that’s impossible to get from anything else! I thought you came across well on the local radio That’s very kind of you to say that, thank you. Until this election, the only radio I’d ever done was an interview back when I was a councillor about something I wasn’t really that interested in or knowledgeable about and it was a total car crash - fortunately they decided the sound quality wasn’t good enough to broadcast so I was saved the embarrassment of it going public. This time I was much better prepared! |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 19, 2021 9:50:36 GMT
I would like to clarify that I liked this for the third point primarily (and the first a bit) and don't endorse the second. I'm not against the government getting a kicking per se and would have been delighted if it had been delivered by our friend london(ex)tory or any similar kind of outfit, but I will never back the Lib Dems against the Conservatives, even at the times when I have actively hated the latter (I will always hate the Lib Dems more). Certainly not pleased with the result, but happy with the two by by-products mentioned (firstly and thirdly) Secretly I was hoping for a very narrow Lib Dem win, with a majority less than my vote. Obviously that didn’t happen in the end but it was always a distinct possibility. In those circumstances the govt would have got its utterly deserved kicking, I could have claimed to have had an impact, and the residents of C&A would only be saddled with a Lib Dem MP for a couple of years or so. Given the Tory candidate’s evidently very successful career in business, he was far less impressive as a candidate than he should have been. The only thing notable about him during the campaign was his height, which meant in all the campaign photos I saw on Tory friends’ Facebook feeds he was placed at the back and not immediately obvious as the candidate at all. A pity that no one polled this seat for breakdown of support. Any hunch who voted for you - old ? young? former Tories? abstainers? Can you rule out that you dented the Lib Dem majority? |
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 19, 2021 9:54:00 GMT
I've been amused by the number of Tory commentators excoriating the Lib Dem candidate for being anti-HS2 given Lib Dem party policy being pro, but praising their candidate and the departed MP as 'principled' in their opposition to HS2 when the Tory govt is not only in favour, but voted it through.
Motes and beams, anyone...?
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