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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 18, 2021 11:51:30 GMT
The Lib Dems are still a total irrelevance in Westminster. This is a vote clearly demonstrating the foolishness of the current left wing wokery of the Conservative party leadership and is a disaster in the making. Return to law and order, locking up criminals, enforcing strict immigration and border controls, regaining control of NI from the EU and stop being enthralled by the Greta mob and returning to the decent and expected values of the majority of the British public. And labour and the lib dems will be thankfully confined to the dustbin of history where they belong. Wow That's a very different take on the by election result. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 11:53:27 GMT
I am not quite sure in which thread this belongs - so take it elsewhere if more appropriate - but it is a reaction to C&A. But I was reading the latest article on the veteran Liverpool Lib Dem Group leader, Richard Kemp's blog. richardkemp.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/the-lib-dems-surge-again-and-it-isnt-a-one-off/ And I was wondering what the reaction to it from people here was. In particular those sympathetic to Tories and Labour but others as well. In particular these two paragraphs: --- snip --- "My judgement is that just as the Labour Party is clearly split in two (or more) factions which can be broadly typified as Corbyn v Starmer supporters. There are clearly now two Tory Parties. There appears to be a move back to the sort of ‘one Nation’ Tory Party where educated, compassionate Tories are beginning to revolt against the lip curling sneers of the likes of Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Neither of these splits are represented in the Parliamentary Parties which were, of course, set before the last General Election. I believe that both Parties will have difficulties managing a North South Split, a left right split and a Westminster/ activist split. I think that neither Party will be able to manage these splits because both believe in controlling the Country from the bunkers of Whitehall and Westminster. The only way that we can be a strong and united country is to allow each bit of it to make their own decisions to meet local need and local circumstances." --- snip --- Now of course both Labour and the Tories are warring factions that fight like cats in a sack broad coalitions. But it strikes me that especially if Labour lose B&S, the Corbynistas will be fighting viciously against Starmer which could be bloody. And former remainers who are not allowed to be pro-Europe in Boris's Tory party are getting quite pissed off by him and his buddies/controllers in the CRG/ERG. In light of this I was struck by this comment on Lib Dem Voice by someone who canvassed for the Lib Dems in C&A "Three things won it... 2. The aid cut. Never before (and I’ve canvassed since 1975) have I had doorstep conversations about international affairs. A lot of very decent proper ‘one nation’ Tories are furious about the aid cut. Doesn’t show Britain in a good light." www.libdemvoice.org/chesham-and-amersham-tories-blame-loss-on-a-kitchen-sink-a-dog-and-a-cat-67947.html#comment-555563It does strike me that Starmer and Johnson now face exactly the same problem but of course mirror images of each other. Starmer has to win back the northern traditional social conservative anti-Europe voters while keeping the London/Bristol/Brighton socially liberal pro-Europe voters. And while Johnson kept enough of his southern social liberal soft green "one nation" concerned middle class pro-Europe voters in 2019 - they left yesterday and in the locals and are on the point of leaving generally but he still has to keep his non-traditionally tory, socially conservative, "cut the green crap", "not a penny for aid - charity starts at home" voters. And these groups want to hear very different things and are pissed off if they don't or hear the opposite. And both from Labour and Conservatives they could back the Lib Dems and Greens in big numbers? Now I guess that being a party leader is being all things to all people appealing to different parts of a coalition. But will Starmer and/or Johnson be able to do it? Will either by allowed to do it by revolting factions in their parties? What do people think? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 11:56:49 GMT
The Lib Dems are still a total irrelevance in Westminster. This is a vote clearly demonstrating the foolishness of the current left wing wokery of the Conservative party leadership and is a disaster in the making. Return to law and order, locking up criminals, enforcing strict immigration and border controls, regaining control of NI from the EU and stop being enthralled by the Greta mob and returning to the decent and expected values of the majority of the British public. And labour and the lib dems will be thankfully confined to the dustbin of history where they belong. I'm also taking this result as vindication of my preconceived notions of the world. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 18, 2021 12:04:44 GMT
One is used to the Lib Dems doing well in by-elections over the years but this is very good even by their standards: "Over the years". Other than the unusual circumstances of Brecon & Radnor our first since 2010. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 18, 2021 12:12:57 GMT
Where is Charlton69? Your boys took one hell of a beating. Not "his boys". No, no, no. This week, Matthew, I'm returning to the League of Empire Loyalists!  |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 12:15:38 GMT
But why would you expect either the left of the party, or the hard-right populist, to offer any support to Starmer? From very different places they fundamentally disagree with much of his outlook. It isn't about supporting Starmer is it - its about objective election analysis. Labour get squeezed by the Liberals in by-elections - its been happening since Orpington and The Bishop alluded to examples that occurred in the 90s which clearly didn't reflect on Blair's popularity so it no more does in this case. It may surprise you to discover that I don't share much of Keir Starmer's outlook but this kind of thing is embarrassing Oh, sure. Daft. Mind you he's such a publicity seeker just looking for a bandwagon! |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jun 18, 2021 12:19:33 GMT
Sure Labour are in a mess but this result is no a reflection of that. Remember they got 2% in Newbury in 1993 when they were riding high in the polls
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 18, 2021 12:21:37 GMT
I am not quite sure in which thread this belongs - so take it elsewhere if more appropriate - but it is a reaction to C&A. But I was reading the latest article on the veteran Liverpool Lib Dem Group leader, Richard Kemp's blog. richardkemp.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/the-lib-dems-surge-again-and-it-isnt-a-one-off/ And I was wondering what the reaction to it from people here was. In particular those sympathetic to Tories and Labour but others as well. In particular these two paragraphs: --- snip --- "My judgement is that just as the Labour Party is clearly split in two (or more) factions which can be broadly typified as Corbyn v Starmer supporters. There are clearly now two Tory Parties. There appears to be a move back to the sort of ‘one Nation’ Tory Party where educated, compassionate Tories are beginning to revolt against the lip curling sneers of the likes of Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Neither of these splits are represented in the Parliamentary Parties which were, of course, set before the last General Election. I believe that both Parties will have difficulties managing a North South Split, a left right split and a Westminster/ activist split. I think that neither Party will be able to manage these splits because both believe in controlling the Country from the bunkers of Whitehall and Westminster. The only way that we can be a strong and united country is to allow each bit of it to make their own decisions to meet local need and local circumstances." --- snip --- Now of course both Labour and the Tories are warring factions that fight like cats in a sack broad coalitions. But it strikes me that especially if Labour lose B&S, the Corbynistas will be fighting viciously against Starmer which could be bloody. And former remainers who are not allowed to be pro-Europe in Boris's Tory party are getting quite pissed off by him and his buddies/controllers in the CRG/ERG. In light of this I was struck by this comment on Lib Dem Voice by someone who canvassed for the Lib Dems in C&A "Three things won it... 2. The aid cut. Never before (and I’ve canvassed since 1975) have I had doorstep conversations about international affairs. A lot of very decent proper ‘one nation’ Tories are furious about the aid cut. Doesn’t show Britain in a good light." www.libdemvoice.org/chesham-and-amersham-tories-blame-loss-on-a-kitchen-sink-a-dog-and-a-cat-67947.html#comment-555563It does strike me that Starmer and Johnson now face exactly the same problem but of course mirror images of each other. Starmer has to win back the northern traditional social conservative anti-Europe voters while keeping the London/Bristol/Brighton socially liberal pro-Europe voters. And while Johnson kept enough of his southern social liberal soft green "one nation" concerned middle class pro-Europe voters in 2019 - they left yesterday and in the locals and are on the point of leaving generally but he still has to keep his non-traditionally tory, socially conservative, "cut the green crap", "not a penny for aid - charity starts at home" voters. And these groups want to hear very different things and are pissed off if they don't or hear the opposite. And both from Labour and Conservatives they could back the Lib Dems and Greens in big numbers? Now I guess that being a party leader is being all things to all people appealing to different parts of a coalition. But will Starmer and/or Johnson be able to do it? Will either by allowed to do it by revolting factions in their parties? What do people think? I think it is a really accurate piece. Party leaders are faced with the task of putting together policies that best enable them to win as many votes and seats as possible - in recent times the Tories have been much more successful at doing this than anyone else. With Labour in disarray at the moment Boris can afford to keep his foot on the accelerator in the north & midlands - but must be wary of the LDs and to a lesser extent the Greens elsewhere. And also his developers charter (sorry - planning reforms). A cabinet reshuffle might not be the worst idea. Jenrick & Hancock are odious little terds who’d not get a job running a hot dog stand, in the real world. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 18, 2021 12:23:39 GMT
HS2 and a couple of other things are significant local issues I know but would a bad turn out from Conservative supporters fed up of lockdown be a possible cause here as well after the recent announcements? Absolutely nobody I spoke to in the constituency brought up lockdown. There is a strong strand of opposition to continued lockdown but demographically this isn't the place for that to be a winning issue. Anti lockdowners are very noisy but nowhere near the force they like to think they are. They also skew quite young - so why GB News is doubling down hard on anti lockdownery is a mystery. |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 12:24:10 GMT
Whoever you support, the imagery of this is excellent. Reminded me of Boris's excellent Deadlock - Get Brexit Done JCB photoshoot during the 2019 campaign There's something about walls |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 18, 2021 12:25:56 GMT
This is not normal practice in UK parliamentary elections, no - to the regret of many in the psephological community! No reason why they couldn't, then we could get accurate ward figures! Or even communities within wards! There is actually. There are some very small polling districts in rural areas where the vote could go entirely 100% for a single candidate. Thus negating ballot secrecy. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jun 18, 2021 12:26:09 GMT
Sure Labour are in a mess but this result is no a reflection of that. Remember they got 2% in Newbury in 1993 when they were riding high in the polls That was a symptom of tactical voting in the 1990s - Labour & Lib Dem voters happy to switch to each other in order to defeat Conservatives. The difference is that in 1993 the Conservative government was deeply unpopular across the country, whereas in 2021 it was a single-issue (HS2) result in a single constituency. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2021 12:26:30 GMT
One is used to the Lib Dems doing well in by-elections over the years but this is very good even by their standards: "Over the years". Other than the unusual circumstances of Brecon & Radnor our first since 2010. Richmond Park in 2016? |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 18, 2021 12:30:53 GMT
The Tories need to be wary and not complacent but I still feel if the voters have significant reservations about Labour the Lib Dems will fail to win many Tory seats(see 2015,1992)
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 12:32:07 GMT
No reason why they couldn't, then we could get accurate ward figures! Or even communities within wards! There is actually. There are some very small polling districts in rural areas where the vote could go entirely 100% for a single candidate. Thus negating ballot secrecy. But the Americans don't worry about it, and even celebrate it.. (not that I am advocating a move to the totally chaotic and long drawn out US way of conducting elections) |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 12:32:40 GMT
Unlike Chesham and Amersham, Maidenhead has a history of being a near-marginal. May was thought to be in some trouble in 2001 and 2005. That might be good or bad news for the Lib Dems - it means they are building on some previous work, but it also means the Maidenhead Tories have developed anti-Lib Dem campaigning skills. 2005 is a long time ago now, but the council elections being more closely fought may mean the Tories have better data than in C&A, and they would not be so complacent. However the Lib Dems would be favourites to win now, and that would give them a big advantage. I suspect Theresa has quite a big personal vote too, whatever people here may think of her.. Oh, she has. I have a friend who runs a voluntary organisation in her seat. He's very left wing, but says she's a good local MP and is genuinely keen on the "constituency MP" stuff. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 18, 2021 12:32:43 GMT
"Over the years". Other than the unusual circumstances of Brecon & Radnor our first since 2010. Richmond Park in 2016? "... and the even more unusual circumstances of Richmond Park" |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2021 12:33:03 GMT
Sure Labour are in a mess but this result is no a reflection of that. Remember they got 2% in Newbury in 1993 when they were riding high in the polls That was a symptom of tactical voting in the 1990s - Labour & Lib Dem voters happy to switch to each other in order to defeat Conservatives. The difference is that in 1993 the Conservative government was deeply unpopular across the country, whereas in 2021 it was a single-issue (HS2) result in a single constituency.For a start, Tory spin can't even agree on the "single issue" - according to many this morning it was NIMBYism (which the Tories have never ever indulged in, no sirree) |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 12:34:10 GMT
I am not quite sure in which thread this belongs - so take it elsewhere if more appropriate - but it is a reaction to C&A. But I was reading the latest article on the veteran Liverpool Lib Dem Group leader, Richard Kemp's blog. richardkemp.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/the-lib-dems-surge-again-and-it-isnt-a-one-off/ And I was wondering what the reaction to it from people here was. In particular those sympathetic to Tories and Labour but others as well. In particular these two paragraphs: --- snip --- "My judgement is that just as the Labour Party is clearly split in two (or more) factions which can be broadly typified as Corbyn v Starmer supporters. There are clearly now two Tory Parties. There appears to be a move back to the sort of ‘one Nation’ Tory Party where educated, compassionate Tories are beginning to revolt against the lip curling sneers of the likes of Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Neither of these splits are represented in the Parliamentary Parties which were, of course, set before the last General Election. I believe that both Parties will have difficulties managing a North South Split, a left right split and a Westminster/ activist split. I think that neither Party will be able to manage these splits because both believe in controlling the Country from the bunkers of Whitehall and Westminster. The only way that we can be a strong and united country is to allow each bit of it to make their own decisions to meet local need and local circumstances." --- snip --- Now of course both Labour and the Tories are warring factions that fight like cats in a sack broad coalitions. But it strikes me that especially if Labour lose B&S, the Corbynistas will be fighting viciously against Starmer which could be bloody. And former remainers who are not allowed to be pro-Europe in Boris's Tory party are getting quite pissed off by him and his buddies/controllers in the CRG/ERG. In light of this I was struck by this comment on Lib Dem Voice by someone who canvassed for the Lib Dems in C&A "Three things won it... 2. The aid cut. Never before (and I’ve canvassed since 1975) have I had doorstep conversations about international affairs. A lot of very decent proper ‘one nation’ Tories are furious about the aid cut. Doesn’t show Britain in a good light." www.libdemvoice.org/chesham-and-amersham-tories-blame-loss-on-a-kitchen-sink-a-dog-and-a-cat-67947.html#comment-555563It does strike me that Starmer and Johnson now face exactly the same problem but of course mirror images of each other. Starmer has to win back the northern traditional social conservative anti-Europe voters while keeping the London/Bristol/Brighton socially liberal pro-Europe voters. And while Johnson kept enough of his southern social liberal soft green "one nation" concerned middle class pro-Europe voters in 2019 - they left yesterday and in the locals and are on the point of leaving generally but he still has to keep his non-traditionally tory, socially conservative, "cut the green crap", "not a penny for aid - charity starts at home" voters. And these groups want to hear very different things and are pissed off if they don't or hear the opposite. And both from Labour and Conservatives they could back the Lib Dems and Greens in big numbers? Now I guess that being a party leader is being all things to all people appealing to different parts of a coalition. But will Starmer and/or Johnson be able to do it? Will either by allowed to do it by revolting factions in their parties? What do people think? I think it is a really accurate piece. Party leaders are faced with the task of putting together policies that best enable them to win as many votes and seats as possible - in recent times the Tories have been much more successful at doing this than anyone else. With Labour in disarray at the moment Boris can afford to keep his foot on the accelerator in the north & midlands - but must be wary of the LDs and to a lesser extent the Greens elsewhere. And also his developers charter (sorry - planning reforms). A cabinet reshuffle might not be the worst idea. Jenrick & Hancock are odious little terds who’d not get a job running a hot dog stand, in the real world. He is right, and it underlines my belief that the two party structure is past its sell by. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jun 18, 2021 12:34:30 GMT
No reason why they couldn't, then we could get accurate ward figures! Or even communities within wards! At the verification the political Parties get a good idea of the votes in each box, but this is not published. After that the normal practice seems to be to deliberately mix the boxes up. Not like America where they are reported. Fashion rather than necessity.. Legal fashion as David points out.. ”Normal practice” because it is an explicit legal requirement |
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