Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Jun 18, 2021 10:50:48 GMT
Will we get ward results from this by-election? Be interesting to know if the Tories carried any of the wards...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 10:51:42 GMT
Will we get ward results from this by-election? Be interesting to know if the Tories carried any of the wards... Why would we? |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2021 10:52:36 GMT
Its entirely possible that a majority of Labour *members* in this seat voted LibDem yesterday (as may also have happened at the Richmond Park byelection in 2016)
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jun 18, 2021 10:54:20 GMT
Will we get ward results from this by-election? Be interesting to know if the Tories carried any of the wards... Why would we? Dunno. Do they not count the boxes individually from the polling station they came from? You're obviously an expert, I'm not |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 18, 2021 10:55:36 GMT
"Imagine a fanatical Tory supporter who refused to live anywhere where there was not Conservative rule at every level: parliamentary, county and district or borough. Such a fictitious person would not have much choice at all in the Britain of the 1990's. Only 1 county authority, Buckinghamshire, remained in Tory overall control after their disaster of May 1993. After May 1994 only 3 of the district councils in the county remained in Conservative hands: South Bucks, Wycombe and Chiltern. Our mythical enthusiast, therefore, would be confined to a tract of land in the Chiltern hills, north west of London. He or she would have an excellent chance of winding up in the Chesham & Amersham constituency" He or she would now be looking for a new house! Is there a reason why they could not have lived in, say, Altrincham? Obviously that would have gone as well with the mayor of Greater Manchester, but would it not have counted in the 90s? |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2021 10:56:26 GMT
Dunno. Do they not count the boxes individually from the polling station they came from?You're obviously an expert, I'm not This is not normal practice in UK parliamentary elections, no - to the regret of many in the psephological community! |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jun 18, 2021 10:58:58 GMT
Dunno. Do they not count the boxes individually from the polling station they came from?You're obviously an expert, I'm not This is not normal practice in UK parliamentary elections, no - to the regret of many in the psephological community! No reason why they couldn't, then we could get accurate ward figures! Or even communities within wards! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 10:59:23 GMT
"Imagine a fanatical Tory supporter who refused to live anywhere where there was not Conservative rule at every level: parliamentary, county and district or borough. Such a fictitious person would not have much choice at all in the Britain of the 1990's. Only 1 county authority, Buckinghamshire, remained in Tory overall control after their disaster of May 1993. After May 1994 only 3 of the district councils in the county remained in Conservative hands: South Bucks, Wycombe and Chiltern. Our mythical enthusiast, therefore, would be confined to a tract of land in the Chiltern hills, north west of London. He or she would have an excellent chance of winding up in the Chesham & Amersham constituency" He or she would now be looking for a new house! Is there a reason why they could not have lived in, say, Altrincham? Obviously that would have gone as well with the mayor of Greater Manchester, but would it not have counted in the 90s? Trafford Council was NOC from 95 to 96 and Labour controlled from 96 to 2003 |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 18, 2021 11:04:56 GMT
Dunno. Do they not count the boxes individually from the polling station they came from? You're obviously an expert, I'm not As others have said, they won’t have counted by box/ward so no formal breakdowns. However the verification will have been done by box, so party activists will have a highly accurate view of where the margins were, even allowing for the absence of location data on postal votes. |
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
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Post by Roger Harmer on Jun 18, 2021 11:06:30 GMT
Its entirely possible that a majority of Labour *members* in this seat voted LibDem yesterday (as may also have happened at the Richmond Park byelection in 2016) I met three Labour members on my Monday canvass of Chesham who volunteered they were going to vote LD before I even got to making the tactical point. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 18, 2021 11:06:34 GMT
Dunno. Do they not count the boxes individually from the polling station they came from?You're obviously an expert, I'm not This is not normal practice in UK parliamentary elections, no - to the regret of many in the psephological community! It's not just not the normal practice, it's illegal. Rule 45 (1A) in the Parliamentary Election Rules says "The returning officer shall not count the votes given on any ballot papers until – (a) in the case of postal ballot papers, they have been mixed with the ballot papers from at least one ballot box, and (b)in the case of ballot papers from a ballot box, they have been mixed with the ballot papers from at least one other ballot box." |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 18, 2021 11:06:35 GMT
Is there a reason why they could not have lived in, say, Altrincham? Obviously that would have gone as well with the mayor of Greater Manchester, but would it not have counted in the 90s? Trafford Council was NOC from 95 to 96 and Labour controlled from 96 to 2003 Yes sorry, I was foolishly only looking at the two years mentioned. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 11:07:46 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 11:14:35 GMT
This is not normal practice in UK parliamentary elections, no - to the regret of many in the psephological community! No reason why they couldn't, then we could get accurate ward figures! Or even communities within wards!
At the verification the political Parties get a good idea of the votes in each box, but this is not published. After that the normal practice seems to be to deliberately mix the boxes up. Not like America where they are reported. Fashion rather than necessity..
Legal fashion as David points out.. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 11:25:44 GMT
The Tories would go into it with a 33% majority so not that much bigger that what they were defending in this seat. Unlike Chesham and Amersham, Maidenhead has a history of being a near-marginal. May was thought to be in some trouble in 2001 and 2005. That might be good or bad news for the Lib Dems - it means they are building on some previous work, but it also means the Maidenhead Tories have developed anti-Lib Dem campaigning skills. 2005 is a long time ago now, but the council elections being more closely fought may mean the Tories have better data than in C&A, and they would not be so complacent. However the Lib Dems would be favourites to win now, and that would give them a big advantage. I suspect Theresa has quite a big personal vote too, whatever people here may think of her.. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 18, 2021 11:35:43 GMT
Whoever you support, the imagery of this is excellent.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 18, 2021 11:35:47 GMT
Those by-elections preceded the 1997 election which was not great for the Conservatives to be fair. The normal pattern in previous parliaments was for these kind of by-election gains to be reversed (eg Ryedale, Ribble Valley). Newbury and Eastleigh both had much more entrenched Lib Dem support and a large local government base (the Lib Dems have one councillor here out of 27). NB even in 1997 Christchurch was regained and that had witnessed a much larger swing in the by-election than here All true, but this is a very good result in the context of how the LibDems are performing in national polls - so it may be a case of what they do locally to consolidate. The odds would still be against them holding it but it shouldn't be discounted. I have been musing about whether the Johnson appeal might have more than a hint of "deference from the plebs" about it. It doesn't appear to be as obvious in this constituency as in Hartlepool. "deference of the plebs" Why does anyone even think this is a factor in any election, its facile elitism at its worst. To me its simple, the current Conservative message as verbalised by Boris Johnson and his government has more appeal to people in what were traditionally Labour areas, compared to areas where they have traditionally been the dominant party. Looking at the national picture, the Conservative political platform seems to me to be correctly positioned to get them reelected for the foreseeable future, which is their aim. If it means a few by election losses, traditional seats lost I doubt the Conservatives will mind if they are still in power. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 11:40:11 GMT
Whoever you support, the imagery of this is excellent. Just a pity that it's also bollocks |
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 260
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Post by kefin on Jun 18, 2021 11:49:18 GMT
The Lib Dems are still a total irrelevance in Westminster.
This is a vote clearly demonstrating the foolishness of the current left wing wokery of the Conservative party leadership and is a disaster in the making. Return to law and order, locking up criminals, enforcing strict immigration and border controls, regaining control of NI from the EU and stop being enthralled by the Greta mob and returning to the decent and expected values of the majority of the British public.
And labour and the lib dems will be thankfully confined to the dustbin of history where they belong.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 18, 2021 11:49:44 GMT
Its entirely possible that a majority of Labour *members* in this seat voted LibDem yesterday (as may also have happened at the Richmond Park byelection in 2016) I met three Labour members on my Monday canvass of Chesham who volunteered they were going to vote LD before I even got to making the tactical point. Were they to admit that in public, they would face expulsion. |
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