ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,628 
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Post by ricmk on Jun 18, 2021 10:04:26 GMT
Wow. I know a government losing a by-election isn’t uncommon and this is arguably a return to those trends but surprised at the scale of the victory. Did that many Tories convert or has the reduced turnout largely come from their side? Direct switchers. In their thousands - for many reasons rehearsed at length on this thread. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,000
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2021 10:12:06 GMT
not so long ago - Richmond Park. 3.7%. Now the question is, when's the last time they stood but polled under 1.6%? Never in a parliamentary by-election Though its roughly the same as their score in the 1997 Winchester byelection/re-run, when Labour were pushing 60% in some polls. Starmer can be critiqued for a number of things, but not really this. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2021 10:15:24 GMT
Never in a parliamentary by-election Though its roughly the same as their score in the 1997 Winchester byelection/re-run, when Labour were pushing 60% in some polls. Starmer can be critiqued for a number of things, but not really this. Doesn't stop the really shit takes of course from both the Corbynite left and the likes of Martin Daubney. It makes you despair really and I'm hardly a Starmer apologist |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 18, 2021 10:22:14 GMT
I'm not sure that these are tabulated but I'd have a look at councils with out of date local plans (or even where there isn't one) and where housing planning provision hasn't kept track with the 5 year supply requirement. In by-elections planning pressure facilitated by the government is a very useful weapon. If one were to happen here (in Chichester) that would play pretty strongly in normally very blue areas.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 18, 2021 10:22:53 GMT
Never in a parliamentary by-election Though its roughly the same as their score in the 1997 Winchester byelection/re-run, when Labour were pushing 60% in some polls. Starmer can be critiqued for a number of things, but not really this. I agree - Labour were always going to struggle here.
That said, it makes me wonder what happened in the working class (and relatively ethnically diverse) parts of Chesham such as Pond Park. I expected Labour's vote to hold up reasonably well there, since it doesn't seem like the kind of place which would back the Lib Dems heavily, even if voting tactically. But if Labour only got 622 votes across the entire constituency then even there they would have got quite a low share of the vote.
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islington
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Post by islington on Jun 18, 2021 10:24:46 GMT
Cummings taking Hodges apart on Twitter - a beautiful thing to see. I agree this is highly entertaining but we on this site shouldn't get too superior. By our collective wisdom (103 votes to 86) we had Labour winning Hartlepool and we were 76-43 for the Tories to win C&A. We currently (by 73-45) have Labour holding Batley so we've a decent chance of chalking up a flawless record of 0.00% success in calling English byelections. (We got Airdrie right though.) |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 10:25:17 GMT
Though its roughly the same as their score in the 1997 Winchester byelection/re-run, when Labour were pushing 60% in some polls. Starmer can be critiqued for a number of things, but not really this. I agree - Labour were always going to struggle here.
That said, it makes me wonder what happened in the working class (and relatively ethnically diverse) parts of Chesham such as Pond Park. I expected Labour's vote to hold up reasonably well there, since it doesn't seem like the kind of place which would back the Lib Dems heavily, even if voting tactically. But if Labour only got 622 votes across the entire constituency then even there they would have got quite a low share of the vote.
They clearly voted LibDem, tactically. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 18, 2021 10:28:05 GMT
There are some seriously crap hot takes out there at the moment. I will enjoy this for what it is, a morale boosting by election win. There are some serious bombs planted which may, nah will blow up in our faces in the future but that is for the brains of the party to sort out.
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 10:31:36 GMT
The Sputnik vaccine is also perfectly good, probably better than Astrazenica, but Russians don't believe it. Astra has suffered badly from the blood clots story (almost certainly ramped by rival Pharma companies, recently there has been push back with similar scare stories on Pfizer) everywhere in the world except the UK, so you really can't blame the Russians for that. Though the concerns seem overblown to me, ok. If Astra was the only one available, maybe, but Moderna and Pfizer were widely available at no charge at the time that that story was published. There does seem to be an issue of a different and more conspiracy friendly information bubble. Much Russian media pushes all kinds of dubious conspiracy theories about the west but the side effect is that their own citizens then become less trusting as well. Russians are a strange mixture of patriotic and distrustful of the State. This story looks like an excuse for a holiday in San Marino as much as anything, but many Russians (including those in the Baltic States, and indeed in the UK) are pretty cross about the EU dragging feet over approving Sputnik, and therefore make a gesture. It is not as if people in the UK are immune from gesture politics, on all sides of the debate. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 10:33:51 GMT
Though its roughly the same as their score in the 1997 Winchester byelection/re-run, when Labour were pushing 60% in some polls. Starmer can be critiqued for a number of things, but not really this. Doesn't stop the really shit takes of course from both the Corbynite left and the likes of Martin Daubney. It makes you despair really and I'm hardly a Starmer apologist But why would you expect either the left of the party, or the hard-right populist, to offer any support to Starmer? From very different places they fundamentally disagree with much of his outlook. |
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London Lad
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Post by London Lad on Jun 18, 2021 10:35:44 GMT
And in 2017 they were the only main party fighting to set the clock back. The knife edge suburbs are not as angry about Brexit as the university towns. One of the foundational errors of Continuity Remain was to think all other Remain voters were as angry as they were. This is a seat where the Lib Dems won in the euro election. 2017 was not a Brexit election, it was Corbynmania, and that is why Labour came second. 2019 was the Brexit election, and that is why the Lib Dems moved back into second place and without that this would not have been won. There is a core vote of Remainers here and in similar seats which is why the Lib Dems could mobilise so many activists. And a majority who are quite happy with a pro European stance even though that may not control their vote. Lib Dems could have done much better in 2019 if we had not shot ourselves in the foot, but strategically, getting back into second place in many seats was a major advance. This seat will be very hard to hold in 2 or 3 years time imo, even without the boundary changes. This is mainly because there will be no local elections to cement the win, and the Tories on Bucks Council will do everything to frustrate the MP. Longer term though, people are moving out of London to places like this, and it could go Lib Dem again as part of a "yellow wall" (lol) First time I have ever seen such a radical concept expounded - well done sir. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 10:35:58 GMT
Not one to thrash our national broadcaster but where is the BBC coverage barring the excellent local radio reporter? I mean they were all over Hartlepool and have probably sent an entire newsroom to Batley and Spen. And - this is not the most important thing of course, but still - why was Laura K claiming it was an easy Tory hold even after polls closed? Possibly because Laura K is a total know-nout (and Tory sympathiser prone to wishful thinking...) |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 18, 2021 10:36:05 GMT
Not one to thrash our national broadcaster but where is the BBC coverage barring the excellent local radio reporter? I mean they were all over Hartlepool and have probably sent an entire newsroom to Batley and Spen. And - this is not the most important thing of course, but still - why was Laura K claiming it was an easy Tory hold even after polls closed? Utterly bizarre tweets. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2021 10:36:30 GMT
Though its roughly the same as their score in the 1997 Winchester byelection/re-run, when Labour were pushing 60% in some polls. Starmer can be critiqued for a number of things, but not really this. I agree - Labour were always going to struggle here.
That said, it makes me wonder what happened in the working class (and relatively ethnically diverse) parts of Chesham such as Pond Park. I expected Labour's vote to hold up reasonably well there, since it doesn't seem like the kind of place which would back the Lib Dems heavily, even if voting tactically. But if Labour only got 622 votes across the entire constituency then even there they would have got quite a low share of the vote.
To be honest Labour haven't really been that strong even in the grottier parts of Chesham since the 70s and voters there are quite used to voting Lib Dem tactically in local and parliamentary elections. For all the incessant talk about Amersham town council going Lib Dem in May, Chesham town council was Lib Dem controlled for many years up until (I think) 2015. Also bear in mind that the only opposition councillor in this constituency is an Asian Lib Dem from Chesham who clearly got a big personal vote in May and presumably can carry sway amongst voters of a similar demographic |
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islington
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Post by islington on Jun 18, 2021 10:36:36 GMT
Though its roughly the same as their score in the 1997 Winchester byelection/re-run, when Labour were pushing 60% in some polls. Starmer can be critiqued for a number of things, but not really this. I agree - Labour were always going to struggle here.
That said, it makes me wonder what happened in the working class (and relatively ethnically diverse) parts of Chesham such as Pond Park. I expected Labour's vote to hold up reasonably well there, since it doesn't seem like the kind of place which would back the Lib Dems heavily, even if voting tactically. But if Labour only got 622 votes across the entire constituency then even there they would have got quite a low share of the vote.
Well, those 13000 Tory votes must have come from somewhere. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2021 10:40:54 GMT
Doesn't stop the really shit takes of course from both the Corbynite left and the likes of Martin Daubney. It makes you despair really and I'm hardly a Starmer apologist But why would you expect either the left of the party, or the hard-right populist, to offer any support to Starmer? From very different places they fundamentally disagree with much of his outlook. It isn't about supporting Starmer is it - its about objective election analysis. Labour get squeezed by the Liberals in by-elections - its been happening since Orpington and The Bishop alluded to examples that occurred in the 90s which clearly didn't reflect on Blair's popularity so it no more does in this case. It may surprise you to discover that I don't share much of Keir Starmer's outlook but this kind of thing is embarrassing |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 10:42:30 GMT
Though its roughly the same as their score in the 1997 Winchester byelection/re-run, when Labour were pushing 60% in some polls. Starmer can be critiqued for a number of things, but not really this. I agree - Labour were always going to struggle here.
That said, it makes me wonder what happened in the working class (and relatively ethnically diverse) parts of Chesham such as Pond Park. I expected Labour's vote to hold up reasonably well there, since it doesn't seem like the kind of place which would back the Lib Dems heavily, even if voting tactically. But if Labour only got 622 votes across the entire constituency then even there they would have got quite a low share of the vote.
Most party members & party hacks may not like the idea of a 'progressive anti-Tory alliance', but most voters understand how to tactical voting works & from the look of the numbers, a fair few members as well. The fruit loop left - "Keith", "LibDems are reely eevil torieez" "Jeremy would have won this" voted Green if at all. Not a complicated result imho  |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 10:46:03 GMT
I agree - Labour were always going to struggle here.
That said, it makes me wonder what happened in the working class (and relatively ethnically diverse) parts of Chesham such as Pond Park. I expected Labour's vote to hold up reasonably well there, since it doesn't seem like the kind of place which would back the Lib Dems heavily, even if voting tactically. But if Labour only got 622 votes across the entire constituency then even there they would have got quite a low share of the vote.
They clearly voted LibDem, tactically. Yes, because the Lib Dems worked on them very hard and are extremely effective in creating momentum in by-election campaigns. I think Labour were pretty resigned to it and good luck to the candidate who may follow other Labour candidates in C&A into the Commons. I think the Greens were a lot more disappointed, and slightly surprisingly turned into the political wing of Guido Fawkes in the last week. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 18, 2021 10:47:48 GMT
I agree - Labour were always going to struggle here.
That said, it makes me wonder what happened in the working class (and relatively ethnically diverse) parts of Chesham such as Pond Park. I expected Labour's vote to hold up reasonably well there, since it doesn't seem like the kind of place which would back the Lib Dems heavily, even if voting tactically. But if Labour only got 622 votes across the entire constituency then even there they would have got quite a low share of the vote.
To be honest Labour haven't really been that strong even in the grottier parts of Chesham since the 70s and voters there are quite used to voting Lib Dem tactically in local and parliamentary elections. For all the incessant talk about Amersham town council going Lib Dem in May, Chesham town council was Lib Dem controlled for many years up until (I think) 2015. Also bear in mind that the only opposition councillor in this constituency is an Asian Lib Dem from Chesham who clearly got a big personal vote in May and presumably can carry sway amongst voters of a similar demographic For those with BNA access you can read about Labour's sweeping win in Chesham UDC, May 1964:- www.britishnewspaperarchive.co.uk/viewer/BL/0002490/19640508/001/0001 |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,844
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Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 10:49:23 GMT
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