|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 12:35:22 GMT
Whoever you support, the imagery of this is excellent. Reminded me of Boris's excellent Deadlock - Get Brexit Done JCB photoshoot during the 2019 campaign There's something about walls Good judgement by Davey to visit the constituency frequently. Means he can "own" the victory. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2021 12:36:40 GMT
Reminded me of Boris's excellent Deadlock - Get Brexit Done JCB photoshoot during the 2019 campaign There's something about walls Good judgement by Davey to visit the constituency frequently. Means he can "own" the victory. Though starting to do so even before Gillan passed away (as revealed by Private Eye) was a bit naughty. |
|
|
|
Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 12:40:23 GMT
One is used to the Lib Dems doing well in by-elections over the years but this is very good even by their standards: "Over the years". Other than the unusual circumstances of Brecon & Radnor our first since 2010. If you mean win/gain there was also Richmond Park - although I appreciate that probably Lib Dems / the world at large thought of it as a Lib Dem held seat - it was technically a gain (and a win)! And there was a 25% swing there. There was also a similar swing to C&A in Witney - although a few percent less and the Lib Dems started further back so it wasn't a win but obv. being closer in C&A also gave greater scope for picking up tactical votes. They also did surprisingly well in the Lewisham East by-election in 2018 with a 19% swing to them from Labour as by-elections against the opposition party are tricky for the Lib Dems. So it is ahead of where they have been but not by a country mile. Perhaps it is surprising that it is of the order of Christchurch and Newbury in 1993 when the Tories were under 30% in the polls. But it may be effectively that we are seeing the Tories essentially on 50% in the North and with Northern type voters and on 30% with Southern and Southern type voters and their poll rating has been holding up among these voters because of a slight "rally round the flag" effect of covid and of them not knowing where to go - obv. where to go can be pointed out to them in a by-election and it's a "free hit" and they may now know where to go outside of C&A.... !!!! |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 12:40:46 GMT
"... and the even more unusual circumstances of Richmond Park"  Don't forget the 17.2% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem in the Peterborough by-election! And slightly more seriously Witney, which we would have won starting from second place, very likely |
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on Jun 18, 2021 12:44:50 GMT
A very strong result for the Lib Dems, far better than anyone would've expected. Whether they can hold it in a general election is another question entirely. Having reorientated towards the North and Midlands there is certainly an opening for the Tories to be challenged in their old heartlands and the Lib Dems are the best placed party to do it (I will believe the Greens winning over lots of soft Tories in general elections with their current Corbyn-lite platform when I see it). However they do have some way to go to fully tailor their messaging to areas like this, certain platitudes coming from the left of the party, 'progressive alliances' and such, are very unhelpful for example.
It is also true that the Lib Dems often succeed in by-elections due to local issues (HS2, NIBYISM etc.) and the desire of the electorate to give the government a 'safe' midterm kicking and thus their record of holding by-election gains from the Tories is poor. So unless the Tories have reached '97 levels of unpopularity by the time the next election rolls around (unlikely) it's more likely than not that this constituency will follow this pattern. The one big plus the Lib Dems do have going for them is that the worse Labour is doing and the further the electorate sees them as being from power the likelier a Lib Dem hold is (due to soft Tories seeing the Lib Dems as 'safe' to vote for), they've got a big problem if Labour suddenly gets its act together and looks to be on the cusp of power...
I don't mean to be a downer on team yellow (a party which I have sometimes voted for) who must have worked bloody hard to get a result as good as this, and I do believe that it is *possible* that the 'Chesham & Amersham by-election' could be the start of something. However, the Lib Dems really need to put in the work both on the ground but (more importantly) in terms of policy and messaging to retain and expand upon gains like this one.
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,812
|
Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 12:45:00 GMT
The Lib Dems are still a total irrelevance in Westminster. This is a vote clearly demonstrating the foolishness of the current left wing wokery of the Conservative party leadership and is a disaster in the making. Return to law and order, locking up criminals, enforcing strict immigration and border controls, regaining control of NI from the EU and stop being enthralled by the Greta mob and returning to the decent and expected values of the majority of the British public. And labour and the lib dems will be thankfully confined to the dustbin of history where they belong. Wow That's a very different take on the by election result. Not really The Lib Dems fought a Nimby campaign, and not a left wing progressive campaign. Sure, there may have been some referendum afterglow and the Tories under Boris are not the election eating machine some on the left feared, but those are reeally the only crumbs the left can take from this, unless there's some messaging I've missed. Even the collapse of the Labour vote, while showing an impressive willingness to switch also shows that Labour are prepared to give their affections to a party far less likely to reciprocate than it was in the Blair years. |
|
ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
|
Post by ColinJ on Jun 18, 2021 12:45:53 GMT
At the verification the political Parties get a good idea of the votes in each box, but this is not published. After that the normal practice seems to be to deliberately mix the boxes up. Not like America where they are reported. Fashion rather than necessity.. Legal fashion as David points out.. ”Normal practice” because it is an explicit legal requirement Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it the fact that the RO in one of the Plymouth constituencies, at the 2017 GE, posess ward-level figures that allowed the realisation that votes from one ward had been omitted from the initially declared result? Or was that ballot paper numbers only? |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 12:47:19 GMT
Good judgement by Davey to visit the constituency frequently. Means he can "own" the victory. Though starting to do so even before Gillan passed away (as revealed by Private Eye) was a bit naughty. I think people get very mealy mouthed about such things. Davey is entitled to campaign for the local elections where he wants, and I am sure he went to quite a few places within easy reach of London. In this case I believe he visited a mosque in Chesham and the Lib Dems gained a seat there.. Of course the impending by-election may have been a factor, but all political Parties start preparations as soon as they can for easily forecast by-elections |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 12:51:07 GMT
"... and the even more unusual circumstances of Richmond Park" Don't forget the 17.2% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem in the Peterborough by-election! And slightly more seriously Witney, which we would have won starting from second place, very likely I'm not sure you would. The Labour vote in Witney is much harder to squeeze and much of the Tory vote is more community politics based which makes it quite resilient, although occasionally prone to an en masse defection |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2021 12:53:55 GMT
Don't forget the 17.2% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem in the Peterborough by-election! And slightly more seriously Witney, which we would have won starting from second place, very likely I'm not sure you would. The Labour vote in Witney is much harder to squeeze and much of the Tory vote is more community politics based which makes it quite resilient, although occasionally prone to an en masse defection I agree on those points, but the LibDems got reasonably close even starting in third place. If they had been 2nd, easy to see Labour being squeezed rather more at least. |
|
Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
Posts: 247
Member is Online
|
Post by Roger Harmer on Jun 18, 2021 13:01:35 GMT
HS2 and a couple of other things are significant local issues I know but would a bad turn out from Conservative supporters fed up of lockdown be a possible cause here as well after the recent announcements? Absolutely nobody I spoke to in the constituency brought up lockdown. There is a strong strand of opposition to continued lockdown but demographically this isn't the place for that to be a winning issue. Anti lockdowners are very noisy but nowhere near the force they like to think they are. They also skew quite young - so why GB News is doubling down hard on anti lockdownery is a mystery. That was my experience too. "We've been taken for granted for too long" or some similar form of words was the most common reason given for moving from the Tories. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384 
|
Post by stb12 on Jun 18, 2021 13:03:23 GMT
2005 is a long time ago now, but the council elections being more closely fought may mean the Tories have better data than in C&A, and they would not be so complacent. However the Lib Dems would be favourites to win now, and that would give them a big advantage. I suspect Theresa has quite a big personal vote too, whatever people here may think of her.. Oh, she has. I have a friend who runs a voluntary organisation in her seat. He's very left wing, but says she's a good local MP and is genuinely keen on the "constituency MP" stuff. Maidenhead could be a long term Lib Dem target but I imagine it’ll be Theresa May’s as long as she keeps wanting to stand. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 13:10:20 GMT
I'm not sure you would. The Labour vote in Witney is much harder to squeeze and much of the Tory vote is more community politics based which makes it quite resilient, although occasionally prone to an en masse defection I agree on those points, but the LibDems got reasonably close even starting in third place. If they had been 2nd, easy to see Labour being squeezed rather more at least. Maybe, but not to anywhere near the 1.6% i was squeezed to here. The Labour vote in Witney is very misunderstood (not necessarily accusing you of this, just a general point). Most people assume it's a largely middle-class academic Labour vote tied to Oxford University, and while there is undoubtedly some of that, most of it is a more typical (or perhaps stereotypical) council or ex-council house and/or traditional industry Labour vote in Witney and Chipping Norton. The LibDems will have found that hard to squeeze for a number of reasons, partly because it's not a block of electorate that's demographically favourable to them, partly because it's very concentrated which I suspect weakens tactical arguments and partly because making it about brexit was not likely to endear a lot of those voters to them |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 13:11:44 GMT
I'm not sure you would. The Labour vote in Witney is much harder to squeeze and much of the Tory vote is more community politics based which makes it quite resilient, although occasionally prone to an en masse defection I agree on those points, but the LibDems got reasonably close even starting in third place. If they had been 2nd, easy to see Labour being squeezed rather more at least. Plus the Tory vote would have gone down more. It is fear of Labour that sustains the Tories in these seats. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 13:14:12 GMT
Oh, she has. I have a friend who runs a voluntary organisation in her seat. He's very left wing, but says she's a good local MP and is genuinely keen on the "constituency MP" stuff. Maidenhead could be a long term Lib Dem target but I imagine it’ll be Theresa May’s as long as she keeps wanting to stand. Apparently she is in the running to be head of NATO, hence the speculation |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 13:17:28 GMT
I agree on those points, but the LibDems got reasonably close even starting in third place. If they had been 2nd, easy to see Labour being squeezed rather more at least. Maybe, but not to anywhere near the 1.6% i was squeezed to here. The Labour vote in Witney is very misunderstood (not necessarily accusing you of this, just a general point). Most people assume it's a largely middle-class academic Labour vote tied to Oxford University, and while there is undoubtedly some of that, most of it is a more typical (or perhaps stereotypical) council or ex-council house and/or traditional industry Labour vote in Witney and Chipping Norton. The LibDems will have found that hard to squeeze for a number of reasons, partly because it's not a block of electorate that's demographically favourable to them, partly because it's very concentrated which I suspect weakens tactical arguments and partly because making it about brexit was not likely to endear a lot of those voters to them I don't know either Witney or C&A, but my impression is that the Labour vote in the latter is concentrated in Chesham, fairly traditional, and with an ethnic minority flavour as well? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 13:22:23 GMT
Maidenhead could be a long term Lib Dem target but I imagine it’ll be Theresa May’s as long as she keeps wanting to stand. Apparently she is in the running to be head of NATO, hence the speculation With the Lib Dem victory in Chesham & Amersham, Maidenhead is now 66th on their target list. |
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on Jun 18, 2021 13:30:29 GMT
No doubt that this is a fantastic result for the Liberal Democrats. It also shows that any formal so-called Progressisve Alliance is just not needed. It kinda has a similar feeling to a by-election from the early 1990s. a Conservative Party which has been in power for many years and a Labour Party seemingly treading water with no real direction. I imagine on a General Election turnout this will prove a tough seat for them to hold, especially as it seems many Conservative voters protested by staying at home. As I have said before, right now there so much more fertile ground for the Lib Dems to put themselves forward as a socially liberal alternative to the Conservative Party than attempting to fish from the same pond as Labour and The Green Party. Interesting point, but what would that actually mean in policy terms, given that Johnson's Tories are hardly small-state sound money advocates? Would you suggest they should have more emphasis on sound money but retain social liberalism and a more constructive approach to Europe? In what way do you see Labour and the Greens as fishing in the same pond? I think what wallington is saying is that the Lib Dems messaging is still very tailored towards urban 'progressives' but this is already a very crowded electoral market with both Labour and the Greens also trying to appeal to these voters. But considering Johnson's Tories are going all in on big spending, 'culture war messaging' to flip/retain traditionally Labour seats in the Midlands and the North, there is a big unfilled gap in the electoral market in the traditionally true-blue heartlands of the posh South. Thus in order to fill it the Lib Dems should go for as you say a strategy that puts 'more emphasis on sound money but retain social liberalism and a more constructive approach to Europe'. I'm in agreement that this strategy would yield the most electoral rewards for the Lib Dems but whether their membership/MPs who tend to be quite 'urban progressive' types allow them to go for it is another matter entirely. |
|
pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,672
|
Post by pl on Jun 18, 2021 13:33:11 GMT
Maidenhead could be a long term Lib Dem target but I imagine it’ll be Theresa May’s as long as she keeps wanting to stand. Apparently she is in the running to be head of NATO, hence the speculation Surely the government should now be firmly saying "no" to any MP ho wants to resign/take another job in middle class London commuter belt seats? |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 13:34:24 GMT
Just talked to my friend in Prestwood. He said it's the first time anyone he voted for has actually been elected! Said that they were the only ones who bothered and that the Tories are usually so sure of victory that they do very little.
|
|
