right
Conservative
Posts: 18,875
|
Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 7:17:32 GMT
All true, but this is a very good result in the context of how the LibDems are performing in national polls - so it may be a case of what they do locally to consolidate. The odds would still be against them holding it but it shouldn't be discounted. I have been musing about whether the Johnson appeal might have more than a hint of "deference from the plebs" about it. It doesn't appear to be as obvious in this constituency as in Hartlepool. Or a vote of thanks for Brexit from the people who voted for it en masse? The difference here is people don't like Brexit or the "levelling up" being offered. Unlike Richmond, Brexit didn't appear to be mentioned in any of the voluminous literature (albeit my impression is from reading comments on the literature) which talked about Lib Dem local electoral success, planning changes and HS2. Could be missing something. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 7:19:09 GMT
Well that’s that then. Always thought a Lib Dem win was possible based on what I was seeing on the ground, although staggered by the scale of their victory. Hartlepool honeymoon is very clearly over! On a personal level I’m reasonably contented by my result - in a two horse race it was always going to be challenging to make a major breakthrough, and in the end I was only beaten by long-established parties all of whom have MPs already. Worked hard, learned a lot and had some fun along the way. Strongly recommend to anyone on here - if you ever get the chance to stand in a parliamentary by-election, grab it with both hands. A wonderful experience that’s impossible to get from anything else! I thought you came across well on the local radio |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 7:20:00 GMT
Or a vote of thanks for Brexit from the people who voted for it en masse? The difference here is people don't like Brexit or the "levelling up" being offered. Unlike Richmond, Brexit didn't appear to be mentioned in any of the voluminous literature (albeit my impression is from reading comments on the literature) which talked about Lib Dem local electoral success, planning changes and HS2. Could be missing something. Oh yes, much more pressing issues |
|
|
|
Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 7:20:29 GMT
"Just a bit more fun!" a la Peter Snow: According to my calculations the Lib Dems would have a majority of 4 in Parliament over all other parties and be ahead of second place Tories by 189 seats on the current boundaries if this result was repeated nationwide – with: Lib Dems 327 seats, Tories 138, Labour 113, SNP 48, PC 3, Other 2, NI parties together: 18 The two “others” are the Speaker’s seat and East Devon where with the Tories going down, the independent wins. Surely the Greens still hold Brighton Pavilion on these changes? You could forget the Greens? Yes, I believe the numbers I give add up to 649 and there should be 1 green! |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,875
|
Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 7:20:49 GMT
But it didn't happen in 2019 where the LibDems did reasonably well, but that's all. Although the Lib Dems went into the 2019 contest starting in 3rd place. That makes this result even more impressive. And in 2017 they were the only main party fighting to set the clock back. The knife edge suburbs are not as angry about Brexit as the university towns. One of the foundational errors of Continuity Remain was to think all other Remain voters were as angry as they were. |
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 18, 2021 7:30:15 GMT
Just had a quick look at the GB News website. The by-election is the 17th item. Funny that(!) Sorry wring thread. |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Jun 18, 2021 7:30:59 GMT
It is arguable that Brexit has made a difference in places like this, just not at a General Election when a government is chosen. The impression was that, faced with the supposed choice between a Labour government, a Brexit Tory party and a literally incredible Lib Dem offer Remain Tories uncomfortably stuck with the Tories. In a by-election the dynamics are completely different.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 7:33:42 GMT
Congrats to Lib Dems, that was a very sizeable win, far bigger than I was expecting. In reply to one poster about lockdown policy, they did abstain on extending restrictions and have voted in the past against extending emergency powers. Not completely anti-lockdown but the closest out of all main parties to it. The election almost certainly wasn't about that in the main though..... Particular congratulations to some of our shrewd betters (one poster getting 14/1 on this a while ago was a fantastic bet), enjoy your winnings. I was going to point that out. Not the most lockdown Party but I agree not fundamentally against. There is an interesting article on the BBC about Russia where they have had no lockdowns since last summer and people are both very resistant to vaccines and fatalistic about high death rates. Now they are making vaccination compulsory in the service sector as we are doing in care homes |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 7:36:02 GMT
It is arguable that Brexit has made a difference in places like this, just not at a General Election when a government is chosen. The impression was that, faced with the supposed choice between a Labour government, a Brexit Tory party and a literally incredible Lib Dem offer Remain Tories uncomfortably stuck with the Tories. In a by-election the dynamics are completely different. Exactly. No prospect of PM Corbyn if you voted Lib Dem. |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,875
|
Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 7:36:05 GMT
It is arguable that Brexit has made a difference in places like this, just not at a General Election when a government is chosen. The impression was that, faced with the supposed choice between a Labour government, a Brexit Tory party and a literally incredible Lib Dem offer Remain Tories uncomfortably stuck with the Tories. In a by-election the dynamics are completely different. That's a possibility, but I'd need to see the evidence that Brexit was an issue in the literature or a common retort on the doorstep. So far I haven't seen any. Haven't been looking hard for it to be fair, but the pattern with Lib Dem recent wins is that they've tended to go light on Brexit which is smart as a Brexit campaign could have tripped them up in outer suburbs where Get Brexit Done scored surprisingly well. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 7:42:56 GMT
Combined Conservative and Lib Dem vote - 92.2%
|
|
|
|
Post by London Lad on Jun 18, 2021 7:46:36 GMT
Turnout down 24% since the GE - did a lot of disgruntled Tory supporters simply stay away and sit on their hands?
|
|
|
|
Post by Richard Cromwell on Jun 18, 2021 7:54:21 GMT
I'm not happy to have been right. I'm sure, however, as the LDs here have pointed out ... we can spin this as a win for development!
Headline:
CHESHAM AND AMERSHAM SAYS YES TO MORE HOUSING
|
|
|
|
Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 7:57:30 GMT
Channelling my inner Peter Snow - the fun never stops  !!! These are the results on the current boundaries by nation/region: simply +/- the vote share: (using the House of Commons Library's spreadsheet of constituency results | Country/Region | Con | Grn | Lab | LD | Oth | PC | SNP | Total | | East | 23 | | 3 | 32 | | | | 58 | | East Midlands | 20 | | 7 | 19 | | | | 46 | | London | 4 | | 35 | 34 | | | | 73 | | North East | 1 | | 6 | 22 | | | | 29 | | North West | 6 | | 34 | 34 | 1 | | | 75 | | Scotland | | | | 11 | | | 48 | 59 | | South East | 19 | 1 | 6 | 58 | | | | 84 | | South West | 4 | | 6 | 44 | 1 | | | 55 | | Wales | | | 16 | 21 | | 3 | | 40 | | West Midlands | 25 | | 12 | 22 | | | | 59 | | Yorkshire and The Humber | 11 | | 13 | 30 | | | | 54 | | Total | 113 | 1 | 138 | 327 | 2 | 3 | 48 | 632 |
(See I have even remembered the Greens!) --- I think the Library uses the "Standard"/ONS etc. classifications for the regions but for clarity they are as follows: Constituencies in Counties in current English Regions: East Midlands = constituencies within Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, and Nottinghamshire. Eastern = constituencies within Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk, and Suffolk. London = all constituencies within the Greater London Council North East = constituencies within Cleveland, Durham, Northumberland, and Tyne and Wear. North West = constituencies within Cheshire, Cumbria, Greater Manchester, Lancashire, and Merseyside South East = constituencies within Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Kent, Hampshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, and West Sussex. South West = constituencies within Avon, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Somerset, and Wiltshire. West Midlands = constituencies within Hereford and Worcester, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, and West Midlands local authority Yorkshire and the Humber = all constituencies within Humberside, North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, and West Yorkshire |
|
|
|
Post by jimboo2017 on Jun 18, 2021 8:03:08 GMT
I'm not happy to have been right. I'm sure, however, as the LDs here have pointed out ... we can spin this as a win for development! Headline: CHESHAM AND AMERSHAM SAYS YES TO MORE HOUSING but not near them |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2021 8:10:09 GMT
I didn't campaign but I did donate £50. However, based on what I was reading in the Liberal Democrat section here I put £50 on at 13.5/1. I didn't donate to the campaign, but I made an "indirect" donation in that I have basically emptied my Broke Lads account betting on the Cons. I had a bet on them early on at 1/11 to win and then another last week at 7/4 on them to win by less than 10%. Have a nice meal on me, Shadsy. I don't think Shadsy will be dining out on this result! It will be those of us who had the good sense to back the Lib Dems at 17/2 or better.. |
|
|
|
Post by raskolnikov on Jun 18, 2021 8:11:44 GMT
Where is Charlton69? Your boys took one hell of a beating.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2021 8:13:21 GMT
I'm not happy to have been right. I'm sure, however, as the LDs here have pointed out ... we can spin this as a win for development! Headline: CHESHAM AND AMERSHAM SAYS YES TO MORE HOUSING They've voted for this Chalfont Common seems like a good spot to build homes for Syrians.. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 8:24:08 GMT
Although the Lib Dems went into the 2019 contest starting in 3rd place. That makes this result even more impressive. And in 2017 they were the only main party fighting to set the clock back. The knife edge suburbs are not as angry about Brexit as the university towns. One of the foundational errors of Continuity Remain was to think all other Remain voters were as angry as they were. This is a seat where the Lib Dems won in the euro election. 2017 was not a Brexit election, it was Corbynmania, and that is why Labour came second. 2019 was the Brexit election, and that is why the Lib Dems moved back into second place and without that this would not have been won. There is a core vote of Remainers here and in similar seats which is why the Lib Dems could mobilise so many activists. And a majority who are quite happy with a pro European stance even though that may not control their vote. Lib Dems could have done much better in 2019 if we had not shot ourselves in the foot, but strategically, getting back into second place in many seats was a major advance. This seat will be very hard to hold in 2 or 3 years time imo, even without the boundary changes. This is mainly because there will be no local elections to cement the win, and the Tories on Bucks Council will do everything to frustrate the MP. Longer term though, people are moving out of London to places like this, and it could go Lib Dem again as part of a "yellow wall" (lol) |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 8:27:54 GMT
It is arguable that Brexit has made a difference in places like this, just not at a General Election when a government is chosen. The impression was that, faced with the supposed choice between a Labour government, a Brexit Tory party and a literally incredible Lib Dem offer Remain Tories uncomfortably stuck with the Tories. In a by-election the dynamics are completely different. That's a possibility, but I'd need to see the evidence that Brexit was an issue in the literature or a common retort on the doorstep. So far I haven't seen any. Haven't been looking hard for it to be fair, but the pattern with Lib Dem recent wins is that they've tended to go light on Brexit which is smart as a Brexit campaign could have tripped them up in outer suburbs where Get Brexit Done scored surprisingly well. Brexit was not part of the Lib Dem campaign but most people in C&A still think Brexit was a mistake, and so there is goodwill towards pro European Parties that push other buttons like planning |
|
!!! 
