right
Conservative
Posts: 18,875
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Post by right on Jun 18, 2021 6:32:53 GMT
The Tories have been caught short here in a big way. Not by losing, even by such a big margin, that can happen to sitting (particularly Tory) governments - but what I was hearing was that the Tories were reasonably confident until the last week and then were putting it around that they had a chance of losing. That sort of margin with that sort of turnout doesn't happen in a week - they must have been behind a week ago but they didn't seem to realise it. Similarly to put it about that it's touch and go the day before rather than preparing people for a big defeat - that seems brave even if it you did think that everything was well. Lib Dem victories are hard to model, but the margin of this one frays that particular excuse. Good, and classic, win for the Lib Dems with a candidate who should be able to burrow in deeply. You never know with these things, if there are a couple of causes she can attach herself to and can set up a decent constituency operation this sort of seat can be held like Newbury or Eastleigh. |
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Post by arnieg on Jun 18, 2021 6:34:19 GMT
Just had a quick look at the GB News website.
The by-election is the 17th item.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 18, 2021 6:37:28 GMT
Hopefully there was an element of anger at Boris’s pro lockdown extremism.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 6:39:48 GMT
I had a feeling the Lib Dems might pull this off when I read about bodies being dug up to make way for HS2 - add to that the debacle over planning rules and it was a perfect storm for the Tories
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2021 6:42:06 GMT
The Tories have been caught short here in a big way. Not by losing, even by such a big margin, that can happen to sitting (particularly Tory) governments - but what I was hearing was that the Tories were reasonably confident until the last week and then were putting it around that they had a chance of losing. That sort of margin with that sort of turnout doesn't happen in a week - they must have been behind a week ago but they didn't seem to realise it. Similarly to put it about that it's touch and go the day before rather than preparing people for a big defeat - that seems brave even if it you did think that everything was well. Lib Dem victories are hard to model, but the margin of this one frays that particular excuse. Good, and classic, win for the Lib Dems with a candidate who should be able to burrow in deeply. You never know with these things, if there are a couple of causes she can attach herself to and can set up a decent constituency operation this sort of seat can be held like Newbury or Eastleigh. Those by-elections preceded the 1997 election which was not great for the Conservatives to be fair. The normal pattern in previous parliaments was for these kind of by-election gains to be reversed (eg Ryedale, Ribble Valley). Newbury and Eastleigh both had much more entrenched Lib Dem support and a large local government base (the Lib Dems have one councillor here out of 27). NB even in 1997 Christchurch was regained and that had witnessed a much larger swing in the by-election than here |
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Post by riccimarsh on Jun 18, 2021 6:43:40 GMT
Hopefully there was an element of anger at Boris’s pro lockdown extremism. I wish that were true but if you’re anti-lockdown why would you vote for the “lockdown forever” Lib Dems?? |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 18, 2021 6:46:09 GMT
They are getting a fair bit of push back on their planning policies. There is a logical basis for some reflection. The lockdown has altered demand patterns, Brexit has, probably permanently, reduced demand in some areas, and there’s a lot of new space in town/city centres as retail adjusts. But I sense they are set on their rather clunky approach. We are nowhere near meeting demand, Brexit will only have reduced the increase in demand as we are still seeing high levels of net immigration. People are also living longer and getting divorced or separated and particularly with children this is increasing demand. Certainly, that last part has been true for a long time. But the other elements require further study. At the moment, particularly as local plan work has been effectively paused by lockdown, we have a pretty loose regime for bulk housing developers with a fair amount of opportunistic green field activity. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 18, 2021 6:46:11 GMT
Hopefully there was an element of anger at Boris’s pro lockdown extremism. I wish that were true but if you’re anti-lockdown why would you vote for the “lockdown forever” Lib Dems?? Voters are often strange folk... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 6:46:39 GMT
The degree of tactical voting here was a sight to behold - I wonder if that could work in Labour's favour in next-door Wycombe which has been getting closer and closer in recent elections. I could see the Tories retaking this while losing Wycombe in 2024, subject to boundary changes in the latter. Pete Whitehead is right and the Lib Dem gains in 1997 were largely off the back off local government success like Richmond and Kingston. Based on that, and a willingness of non-Tory voters to coalesce around the nearest opponent, Lewes and South Cambridgeshire appear more likely Lib Dem seats in the long term than here. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 6:49:02 GMT
You never know with these things, if there are a couple of causes she can attach herself to and can set up a decent constituency operation this sort of seat can be held like Newbury or Eastleigh. Those by-elections preceded the 1997 election which was not great for the Conservatives to be fair. The normal pattern in previous parliaments was for these kind of by-election gains to be reversed (eg Ryedale, Ribble Valley). Newbury and Eastleigh both had much more entrenched Lib Dem support and a large local government base (the Lib Dems have one councillor here out of 27). NB even in 1997 Christchurch was regained and that had witnessed a much larger swing in the by-election than here All true, but this is a very good result in the context of how the LibDems are performing in national polls - so it may be a case of what they do locally to consolidate. The odds would still be against them holding it but it shouldn't be discounted. I have been musing about whether the Johnson appeal might have more than a hint of "deference from the plebs" about it. It doesn't appear to be as obvious in this constituency as in Hartlepool. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 6:52:47 GMT
"Just a bit more fun!" a la Peter Snow:
According to my calculations the Lib Dems would have a majority of 4 in Parliament over all other parties and be ahead of second place Tories by 189 seats on the current boundaries if this result was repeated nationwide – with:
Lib Dems 327 seats, Tories 138, Labour 113, SNP 48, PC 3, Other 2, NI parties together: 18
The two “others” are the Speaker’s seat and East Devon where with the Tories going down, the independent wins.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 6:52:47 GMT
Those by-elections preceded the 1997 election which was not great for the Conservatives to be fair. The normal pattern in previous parliaments was for these kind of by-election gains to be reversed (eg Ryedale, Ribble Valley). Newbury and Eastleigh both had much more entrenched Lib Dem support and a large local government base (the Lib Dems have one councillor here out of 27). NB even in 1997 Christchurch was regained and that had witnessed a much larger swing in the by-election than here All true, but this is a very good result in the context of how the LibDems are performing in national polls - so it may be a case of what they do locally to consolidate. The odds would still be against them holding it but it shouldn't be discounted. I have been musing about whether the Johnson appeal might have more than a hint of "deference from the plebs" about it. It doesn't appear to be as obvious in this constituency as in Hartlepool. Or a vote of thanks for Brexit from the people who voted for it en masse? The difference here is people don't like Brexit or the "levelling up" being offered. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 6:54:19 GMT
"Just a bit more fun!" a la Peter Snow: According to my calculations the Lib Dems would have a majority of 4 in Parliament over all other parties and be ahead of second place Tories by 189 seats on the current boundaries if this result was repeated nationwide – with: Lib Dems 327 seats, Tories 138, Labour 113, SNP 48, PC 3, Other 2, NI parties together: 18 The two “others” are the Speaker’s seat and East Devon where with the Tories going down, the independent wins. Reminds me of that poll in 1981 with the Alliance on 50%! This result is just as historic as Crosby but the key difference is this government is still supposedly popular. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 6:55:25 GMT
All true, but this is a very good result in the context of how the LibDems are performing in national polls - so it may be a case of what they do locally to consolidate. The odds would still be against them holding it but it shouldn't be discounted. I have been musing about whether the Johnson appeal might have more than a hint of "deference from the plebs" about it. It doesn't appear to be as obvious in this constituency as in Hartlepool. Or a vote of thanks for Brexit from the people who voted for it en masse? The difference here is people don't like Brexit or the "levelling up" being offered. Well, it wasn't an overwhelmingly Remain seat. And to be frank most here are prosperous enough not to care that much. It's not as if they would ever have been on a list for additional support! It's odd that people would vote to thank a party for something which had already happened. It's not as if that can be any sort of permanent strategy. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 18, 2021 6:59:02 GMT
I didn't campaign but I did donate £50. However, based on what I was reading in the Liberal Democrat section here I put £50 on at 13.5/1. I didn't donate to the campaign, but I made an "indirect" donation in that I have basically emptied my Broke Lads account betting on the Cons. I had a bet on them early on at 1/11 to win and then another last week at 7/4 on them to win by less than 10%. Have a nice meal on me, Shadsy. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 6:59:02 GMT
Or a vote of thanks for Brexit from the people who voted for it en masse? The difference here is people don't like Brexit or the "levelling up" being offered. Well, it wasn't an overwhelmingly Remain seat. And to be frank most here are prosperous enough not to care that much. It's not as if they would ever have been on a list for additional support! It's odd that people would vote to thank a party for something which had already happened. It's not as if that can be any sort of permanent strategy. Not overwhelmingly Remain no but the highest turnout in the EU referendum which can't have hurt the Lib Dems. |
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Post by thirdchill on Jun 18, 2021 7:00:37 GMT
Congrats to Lib Dems, that was a very sizeable win, far bigger than I was expecting.
In reply to one poster about lockdown policy, they did abstain on extending restrictions and have voted in the past against extending emergency powers. Not completely anti-lockdown but the closest out of all main parties to it.
The election almost certainly wasn't about that in the main though.....
Particular congratulations to some of our shrewd betters (one poster getting 14/1 on this a while ago was a fantastic bet), enjoy your winnings.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2021 7:01:25 GMT
Well, it wasn't an overwhelmingly Remain seat. And to be frank most here are prosperous enough not to care that much. It's not as if they would ever have been on a list for additional support! It's odd that people would vote to thank a party for something which had already happened. It's not as if that can be any sort of permanent strategy. Not overwhelmingly Remain no but the highest turnout in the EU referendum which can't have hurt the Lib Dems. But it didn't happen in 2019 where the LibDems did reasonably well, but that's all. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 7:03:40 GMT
Not overwhelmingly Remain no but the highest turnout in the EU referendum which can't have hurt the Lib Dems. But it didn't happen in 2019 where the LibDems did reasonably well, but that's all. Although the Lib Dems went into the 2019 contest starting in 3rd place. That makes this result even more impressive. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 18, 2021 7:05:09 GMT
"Just a bit more fun!" a la Peter Snow: According to my calculations the Lib Dems would have a majority of 4 in Parliament over all other parties and be ahead of second place Tories by 189 seats on the current boundaries if this result was repeated nationwide – with: Lib Dems 327 seats, Tories 138, Labour 113, SNP 48, PC 3, Other 2, NI parties together: 18 The two “others” are the Speaker’s seat and East Devon where with the Tories going down, the independent wins. Surely the Greens still hold Brighton Pavilion on these changes? |
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