Chesham and Amersham

[timmullen1]

Jun 18, 2021 3:07:46 GMT @johnyorks said:

Jun 18, 2021 1:37:46 GMT cogload said:

Not one to thrash our national broadcaster but where is the BBC coverage barring the excellent local radio reporter? I mean they were all over Hartlepool and have probably sent an entire newsroom to Batley and Spen.

Haven’t even had a breaking news alert from the BBC app.

Really? I got “result imminent” and “LDs in stunning upset”, and as I said upthread they were at least 15 minutes ahead of the Sky News App in putting the numbers up. Wonder what GB News did?

[minionofmidas]

Labour saved their deposit in Brecon & Radnor, admittedly a seat with more of a Labour history if just as much of a two-horse race today. 1.6% is really impressively bad.

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2021 3:23:22 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jun 18, 2021 3:07:46 GMT @johnyorks said:

Haven’t even had a breaking news alert from the BBC app.

Really? I got “result imminent” and “LDs in stunning upset”, and as I said upthread they were at least 15 minutes ahead of the Sky News App in putting the numbers up. Wonder what GB News did?

No, the last one was on Edwin Poots’ resignation.

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2021 3:23:45 GMT minionofmidas said:

Labour saved their deposit in Brecon & Radnor, admittedly a seat with more of a Labour history if just as much of a two-horse race today. 1.6% is really impressively bad.

It’s slightly more than the Lib Dem’s got in Hartlepool

[timmullen1]

Jun 18, 2021 3:27:40 GMT @johnyorks said:

Jun 18, 2021 3:23:22 GMT timmullen1 said:

Really? I got “result imminent” and “LDs in stunning upset”, and as I said upthread they were at least 15 minutes ahead of the Sky News App in putting the numbers up. Wonder what GB News did?

No, the last one was on Edwin Poots’ resignation.

Strange.

[minionofmidas]

Jun 18, 2021 3:19:55 GMT markgoodair said:

Jun 18, 2021 2:00:50 GMT maxque said:

I feel this is making a loss in B&S more dangerous for Starmer (the LD could take a seat from Conservatives, but Starmer can't even defend a seat against the same people).

When was the last time Labour lost their deposit at a Parliamentary by-election? To come fourth behind the Greens does look poor.

not so long ago - Richmond Park. 3.7%. Now the question is, when's the last time they stood but polled under 1.6%?

[timmullen1]

Jun 18, 2021 3:32:31 GMT minionofmidas said:

Jun 18, 2021 3:19:55 GMT markgoodair said:

When was the last time Labour lost their deposit at a Parliamentary by-election? To come fourth behind the Greens does look poor.

not so long ago - Richmond Park. 3.7%. Now the question is, when's the last time they stood but polled under 1.6%?

Not far off in Newbury, rounded up to 2%.

[Crimson King]

Jun 18, 2021 3:32:15 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jun 18, 2021 3:27:40 GMT @johnyorks said:

No, the last one was on Edwin Poots’ resignation.

Strange.

same here. I think something in my settings stops them between 11 and 8

[Crimson King]

just up with indigestion so drinking a mint tea and enjoying the election night compressed into 5 minutes

[michael2019]

Jun 18, 2021 3:23:45 GMT minionofmidas said:

Labour saved their deposit in Brecon & Radnor, admittedly a seat with more of a Labour history if just as much of a two-horse race today. 1.6% is really impressively bad.

In fact according to Wikipedia it's the worst Labour have ever done in a by-election. There have been two other by-elections where Labour have got 2% or less (1997 Winchester - 1.7%, 1993 Newbury - 2.0%) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Lowest_share_of_the_vote

One is used to the Lib Dems doing well in by-elections over the years but this is very good even by their standards:


The Second highest increase in vote share after Christchurch


1993 Christchurch by-election 38.6 Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats gain

2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election 30.4 Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats gain

2016 Richmond Park by-election 30.3 Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats gain

2003 Brent East by-election 28.5 Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats gain

1991 Ribble Valley by-election 27.1 Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats gain


And third highest swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems


1993 Christchurch by-election 35.4 Conservative Liberal Democrats

1993 Newbury by-election 28.4 Conservative Liberal Democrats

2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election 25.1 Conservative Liberal Democrats

2016 Richmond Park by-election 21.7  Conservative Liberal Democrats

2003 Brent East by-election 28.9 Labour Liberal Democrats

2004 Birmingham Hodge Hill by-election 26.7  Labour Liberal Democrats

1983 Bermondsey by-election 44.2 Labour Liberal

1979 Liverpool Edge Hill by-election 30.2 Labour Liberal

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Well I saw the vote squeeze coming just not the way the votes would fall.

Well done to the Liberal Democrats, all you now have to do is hold on to the seat (or its successor seat) at the next election.

[therealriga]

Drat.
Had 8 quid on the LibDems at 14/1.
Then tried to be cute, covering it with £60 on Conservatives at 1/6, purely for the pyschological factor of keeping my winning streak going. Dumb. A win is a win, but if the odds hadn't narrowed I'd have just left it at the original bet, instead of giving up over half my winnings.

Have Conservatives to win Batley but now having doubts about that.

[Merseymike]

It seemed, from reports, that the LibDems were building some momentum so the actual outcome wasn't quite such a shock.
However, this really is very much classic safe Conservative territory and while the LibDems are the traditional second party here, they've never come close to winning. So this is certainly an excellent result for them. I'll have to contact my friend in Prestwood - I think he's always voted LibDem so will be surprised to have voted for the winner!

[right]

The Tories have been caught short here in a big way.  Not by losing, even by such a big margin, that can happen to sitting (particularly Tory) governments - but what I was hearing was that the Tories were reasonably confident until the last week and then were putting it around that they had a chance of losing.  That sort of margin with that sort of turnout doesn't happen in a week - they must have been behind a week ago but they didn't seem to realise it.  Similarly to put it about that it's touch and go the day before rather than preparing people for a big defeat - that seems brave even if it you did think that everything was well.

Lib Dem victories are hard to model, but the margin of this one frays that particular excuse.

Good, and classic, win for the Lib Dems with a candidate who should be able to burrow in deeply.

[riccimarsh]

Election 2023/2024: Con re-gain/hold. Tbh I would have been tempted to vote against Con cos of the Covid debacle this week… but I don’t know who I’d have switched to, LD aren’t exactly anti-lockdown.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Jun 18, 2021 1:19:06 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jun 18, 2021 1:04:03 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

I think the first paragraph is what you write when you know something is wrong and you just don't want to admit it. Secondly, I am perfectly willing to forgo some middle class seats for working class ones. If we, Tories, can forge a Disraelite alliance between the rural areas and the small town working-class against the communter belt middle class, I'm all for it.

Sorry David, I am going to confine myself to the Yellow Room for a bit to avoid crowing; but no, it isn't that at all.

There is not a single thing about our opposition to planning changes that will stop a single home being built, as has been pointed out relentlessly by Khunanup ; and the attempt to portray this as such is a blatant attempt to blame the electorate for a widespread disaffection with poor Tory performance across the board at local government and parliamentary level in this constituency. Good old potholes were just as big a deal as anything else. You won't learn that from the media coverage by journalists who made virtually no attempt to cover the campaign, and when they did only asked about HS2. You have to actually have been there. There'd have been a lot less chat on here about ramps if more people had (and I note that london(ex)tory , who clearly has, made no such claims)


Furthermore, to a great extent this is a rural constituency. If you think your hold on them is safe, talk to some farmers.

Anyway, enough from me, I'm having a drink

I don't think anybody would mind you celebrating the win publicly. It was a good margin and you haven't had many wins for the past 11 years, never mind such a big one. It would be completely remiss though for my party to not point out that the Liberal Democrats are now a party who support mass migration and freedom of movement with 27 countries, many of which are much poorer than us, all while opportunistically opposing building not only the homes they'd hypothetically need, but the homes younger people like me will need. Chutzpah doesn't even begin to cover it .

[matureleft]

Jun 18, 2021 3:02:30 GMT @johnyorks said:

Congrats to the Lib Dems. An impressive result.
Be interesting to see if if’s a flash in the pan like Ribble Valley & Christchurch or if it’s longer lasting like Newbury.

I do hope govt policy on house building doesn’t change because of this though.

They are getting a fair bit of push back on their planning policies. There is a logical basis for some reflection. The lockdown has altered demand patterns, Brexit has, probably permanently, reduced demand in some areas, and there’s a lot of new space in town/city centres as retail adjusts. But I sense they are set on their rather clunky approach.

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 18, 2021 1:27:56 GMT mrhell said:

I didn't campaign but I did donate £50. However, based on what I was reading in the Liberal Democrat section here I put £50 on at 13.5/1.

I also made a donation. Early on I put £20 on at 17/2, then went elsewhere later and had another £20 at sixteens, so looking forward to collecting on those.

[right]

Jun 18, 2021 6:08:58 GMT matureleft said:

Jun 18, 2021 3:02:30 GMT @johnyorks said:

Congrats to the Lib Dems. An impressive result.
Be interesting to see if if’s a flash in the pan like Ribble Valley & Christchurch or if it’s longer lasting like Newbury.

I do hope govt policy on house building doesn’t change because of this though.

They are getting a fair bit of push back on their planning policies. There is a logical basis for some reflection. The lockdown has altered demand patterns, Brexit has, probably permanently, reduced demand in some areas, and there’s a lot of new space in town/city centres as retail adjusts. But I sense they are set on their rather clunky approach.

We are nowhere near meeting demand, Brexit will only have reduced the increase in demand as we are still seeing high levels of net immigration. People are also living longer and getting divorced or separated and particularly with children this is increasing demand.

[Deleted]

The swing from Conservative to Lib Dem was 25.1% here compared to 19.3% in Witney in 2016.