Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
Member is Online
|
Post by Khunanup on Jun 18, 2021 1:16:43 GMT
I've still got it on Con hold, but I've put a fiver on the Liberal Democrats at 19/4, just in case.đ Though, silver linings and all thatđ. Got 17/2... đ |
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 18, 2021 1:19:06 GMT
David, with all due respect, have you spoken to a single solitary voter in the constituency for their motivation in voting LD? Do you think Montgomerie has? The absolutely overwhelming reason I heard was "we've been taken for granted for decades, you are the first people who have even bothered to talk to us." Sound familiar at all? These are also the precise same voters that you and others on here have spent years dismissing as metropolitan elitists whose views are of no account. Fine. Your bed. Go sleep in it. I think the first paragraph is what you write when you know something is wrong and you just don't want to admit it. Secondly, I am perfectly willing to forgo some middle class seats for working class ones. If we, Tories, can forge a Disraelite alliance between the rural areas and the small town working-class against the communter belt middle class, I'm all for it. Sorry David, I am going to confine myself to the Yellow Room for a bit to avoid crowing; but no, it isn't that at all. There is not a single thing about our opposition to planning changes that will stop a single home being built, as has been pointed out relentlessly by Khunanup; and the attempt to portray this as such is a blatant attempt to blame the electorate for a widespread disaffection with poor Tory performance across the board at local government and parliamentary level in this constituency. Good old potholes were just as big a deal as anything else. You won't learn that from the media coverage by journalists who made virtually no attempt to cover the campaign, and when they did only asked about HS2. You have to actually have been there. There'd have been a lot less chat on here about ramps if more people had (and I note that london(ex)tory, who clearly has, made no such claims) Furthermore, to a great extent this is a rural constituency. If you think your hold on them is safe, talk to some farmers. Anyway, enough from me, I'm having a drink |
|
|
|
Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 1:22:43 GMT
Vote shares: Lib Dem 56.7% Conservative 35.5% Green 3.9% Labour 1.6% Reform UK 1.1% Breakthrough 0.5% Freedom Alliance 0.4% Rejoin EU 0.3% (percentages rounded to nearest 0.1%). So I think I was spot on for Reform UK, Greens and Labour! And within the MOE for Conservatives and (at a stretch!) Lib Dems  ! Worth that constituency poll ! Now if I'd just put money on it at the bookies..... !!!!!!!!! Blue wall smashed! Blue Sea parted! |
|
|
|
Post by mrhell on Jun 18, 2021 1:27:56 GMT
I didn't campaign but I did donate ÂŁ50. However, based on what I was reading in the Liberal Democrat section here I put ÂŁ50 on at 13.5/1.
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
|
Post by cogload on Jun 18, 2021 1:37:46 GMT
Not one to thrash our national broadcaster but where is the BBC coverage barring the excellent local radio reporter? I mean they were all over Hartlepool and have probably sent an entire newsroom to Batley and Spen.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 1:42:24 GMT
Not one to thrash our national broadcaster but where is the BBC coverage barring the excellent local radio reporter? I mean they were all over Hartlepool and have probably sent an entire newsroom to Batley and Spen. They have mentioned it now.. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jun 18, 2021 1:43:52 GMT
Not one to thrash our national broadcaster but where is the BBC coverage barring the excellent local radio reporter? I mean they were all over Hartlepool and have probably sent an entire newsroom to Batley and Spen. Given the lack of coverage on Sky as well - seemingly one fixed camera and no Jon Craig - can we hazard a guess that the press have largely been kept out of the count because of the Covid precautions Bucks county council seemed to be deploying? (And the BBC website got the numbers online about 15 minutes before Sky News FWIW) |
|
|
|
Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 1:44:38 GMT
Small Quake in Bucks. Not Many Dead. Before 02.00 so at least one good aspect. Goodnight sweet Members. Give the Forum a miss for a few days to let the Yellows bask and pretend this has any significance at all.It is bloody irritating though. No of course not! Just a million times increase in Lib Dem credibility with the media. Probably a 4%-5% increase in the polling rating - seen off the Greens that were closing in them. Of course one swallow does not make a summer. So it will probably be like those other insignificant Lib Dem by-election wins - Christchurch, Eastbourne etc. The Dead Parrot rises from the ashes! |
|
|
|
Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 1:52:09 GMT
Happy that the Conservatives took a beating. Just a shame itâs at the expense of the Lib Demâs success. Will that party ever die. It *may* have saved Labour in B&S and Starmer's leadership as it will knock several points off the Tory rating (although in fairness even in the Tories which is only party that's good at regicide they normally get at least two years). I'll leave it for others to argue whether that's good or bad - but personally I think that he's done "OK" - indeed more than OK in difficult circumstances with covid to get anything over. Of course sometimes as probably with the Lib Dems in the 2013 Eastleigh by-election it's better for the party to lose by-elections.... |
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 18, 2021 1:59:24 GMT
Well thatâs that then. Always thought a Lib Dem win was possible based on what I was seeing on the ground, although staggered by the scale of their victory.
Hartlepool honeymoon is very clearly over!
On a personal level Iâm reasonably contented by my result - in a two horse race it was always going to be challenging to make a major breakthrough, and in the end I was only beaten by long-established parties all of whom have MPs already.
Worked hard, learned a lot and had some fun along the way. Strongly recommend to anyone on here - if you ever get the chance to stand in a parliamentary by-election, grab it with both hands. A wonderful experience thatâs impossible to get from anything else!
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Jun 18, 2021 2:00:50 GMT
Happy that the Conservatives took a beating. Just a shame itâs at the expense of the Lib Demâs success. Will that party ever die. It *may* have saved Labour in B&S and Starmer's leadership as it will knock several points off the Tory rating (although in fairness even in the Tories which is only party that's good at regicide they normally get at least two years). I'll leave it for others to argue whether that's good or bad - but personally I think that he's done "OK" - indeed more than OK in difficult circumstances with covid to get anything over. Of course sometimes as probably with the Lib Dems in the 2013 Eastleigh by-election it's better for the party to lose by-elections.... I feel this is making a loss in B&S more dangerous for Starmer (the LD could take a seat from Conservatives, but Starmer can't even defend a seat against the same people). |
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 18, 2021 2:30:02 GMT
Well done to the Lib Dems. For all of your faults, you have given the government a well-earned humilation.
|
|
|
|
Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 2:46:47 GMT
As we don't have Peter Snow - just for fun!
On the New Statesman nominal results for England only. Of the 542 seats (excluding the Speaker's), I calculate the C&A result would mean:
Lib Dems 307 seats (56.7% of seats)
Lab 124 seats (22.9%)
Con 110 seats (20.3%)
Green 1 seat (0.2%)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 3:02:30 GMT
Congrats to the Lib Dems. An impressive result.
Be interesting to see if ifâs a flash in the pan like Ribble Valley & Christchurch or if itâs longer lasting like Newbury.
I do hope govt policy on house building doesnât change because of this though.
|
|
|
|
Post by seanryanj on Jun 18, 2021 3:05:21 GMT
Wow what a result!!!!! I didn't think that it could be done predicted it was a tory hold but thankfully put a few quid on it yesterday so getting myself 120, congrats to the dead parrot!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by seanryanj on Jun 18, 2021 3:07:21 GMT
Remember that reform tweet we dismissed early in the night well they nearly did beat labour
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 3:07:46 GMT
Not one to thrash our national broadcaster but where is the BBC coverage barring the excellent local radio reporter? I mean they were all over Hartlepool and have probably sent an entire newsroom to Batley and Spen. Havenât even had a breaking news alert from the BBC app. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jun 18, 2021 3:13:09 GMT
I got 14/1 some time ago, enough to pay for my week in Torquay if I win, enough to not worry about if I lose. Presumably you win a bet by tolerating Torquay for a week, and that covers the cost of the trip? Next month, Great Yarmouth? I like Torquay, it has lots of childhood memories for me and its easy to get around to other places. |
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Jun 18, 2021 3:13:24 GMT
Small Quake in Bucks. Not Many Dead. Before 02.00 so at least one good aspect. Goodnight sweet Members. Give the Forum a miss for a few days to let the Yellows bask and pretend this has any significance at all. It is bloody irritating though. Double victory for us then |
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Jun 18, 2021 3:19:55 GMT
It *may* have saved Labour in B&S and Starmer's leadership as it will knock several points off the Tory rating (although in fairness even in the Tories which is only party that's good at regicide they normally get at least two years). I'll leave it for others to argue whether that's good or bad - but personally I think that he's done "OK" - indeed more than OK in difficult circumstances with covid to get anything over. Of course sometimes as probably with the Lib Dems in the 2013 Eastleigh by-election it's better for the party to lose by-elections.... I feel this is making a loss in B&S more dangerous for Starmer (the LD could take a seat from Conservatives, but Starmer can't even defend a seat against the same people). When was the last time Labour lost their deposit at a Parliamentary by-election? To come fourth behind the Greens does look poor. |
|
! Worth that constituency poll 
