Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,515
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Post by Merseymike on May 21, 2021 9:03:08 GMT
This is a remarkably stable constituency in a sea of blue and with few current or historical features likely to affect the outcome of any by-election. It was formed in 1974 and has only had two MPs in all that time. The CON hold has been a continuous majoritarian one within a range of 50-63% and the winning margin within the range 19-45%. LAB have usually been a weak third and only made second place once under Corbyn in 2017 at 20.6% (up 7.9%). LD have usually been runner up, never bettering the 31.2% achieved as long ago as both 1974 and 1983; and as low as 9.0% and 4th place in 2015. Green stood 1987 to 2019 missing the one GE of 1997; never bettering 4th place 5.5% of 2019 (and a 5.5% 5th place 2015). UKIP have been a feature between 1997-2017, ranging from an initial 5th place 1.2% (behind the Referendu Party 4th 4.8%) in 1997, to being Runner-Up 13.7% 2015. The CON have weathered the Blair landslide and honeymoon period, Brexit and UKIP, HSR and environment concerns, and all the usual ebbs and flow off political fortune and minor demographics with eqanimity. Why should things change now? 29 Members have so far forgot themselves as to suggest that it will not be held this time by the CON on what I suggest to be a complete absence of any evidence whatsoever other than rank partisanship and blind hope. No other party has any true substantial core vote at all, whereas CON have a base 50% majoritarian historic base over nearly half a century of political vicissitudes. What are the 29 thinking on a prime psephological site? What do they know? Frankly what can possibly be their excuse for this foolishness? I can't see any reason why the Conservative party might lose this at the moment. Or at any moment, though clearly by-election results can feature dramatic swings to the LibDems. But right now the Tories are well ahead in the polls, the LibDems in third, and while they should come second here as they almost always do, is there any indication of a better outcome? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2021 12:56:38 GMT
I think the Lib Dem’s need to be a bit cautious with their outward optimism. Fair enough to campaign as the only party that can realistically threaten the Conservative position here, but they need to make sure they don’t push the expectations of an upset too much otherwise they’ll risk shooting themselves in the foot.
I would expect a Tory majority of maybe 5,000 (due to what I think is inevitable protest over HS2 & lowish turnout).
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Post by andrew111 on May 21, 2021 14:56:03 GMT
This is a remarkably stable constituency in a sea of blue and with few current or historical features likely to affect the outcome of any by-election. It was formed in 1974 and has only had two MPs in all that time. The CON hold has been a continuous majoritarian one within a range of 50-63% and the winning margin within the range 19-45%. LAB have usually been a weak third and only made second place once under Corbyn in 2017 at 20.6% (up 7.9%). LD have usually been runner up, never bettering the 31.2% achieved as long ago as both 1974 and 1983; and as low as 9.0% and 4th place in 2015. Green stood 1987 to 2019 missing the one GE of 1997; never bettering 4th place 5.5% of 2019 (and a 5.5% 5th place 2015). UKIP have been a feature between 1997-2017, ranging from an initial 5th place 1.2% (behind the Referendu Party 4th 4.8%) in 1997, to being Runner-Up 13.7% 2015. The CON have weathered the Blair landslide and honeymoon period, Brexit and UKIP, HSR and environment concerns, and all the usual ebbs and flow off political fortune and minor demographics with eqanimity. Why should things change now? 29 Members have so far forgot themselves as to suggest that it will not be held this time by the CON on what I suggest to be a complete absence of any evidence whatsoever other than rank partisanship and blind hope. No other party has any true substantial core vote at all, whereas CON have a base 50% majoritarian historic base over nearly half a century of political vicissitudes. What are the 29 thinking on a prime psephological site? What do they know? Frankly what can possibly be their excuse for this foolishness? Because history does quite often repeat itself Carlton, in by-elections in safe Tory seats with the Lib Dems second. Do the stats. Bit the REAL question is, will you eat your hat if the Lib Dems do win? |
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Post by andrew111 on May 21, 2021 14:58:21 GMT
I think the Lib Dem’s need to be a bit cautious with their outward optimism. Fair enough to campaign as the only party that can realistically threaten the Conservative position here, but they need to make sure they don’t push the expectations of an upset too much otherwise they’ll risk shooting themselves in the foot. I would expect a Tory majority of maybe 5,000 (due to what I think is inevitable protest over HS2 & lowish turnout). Lib Dems have absolutely nothing to lose here. No one is going to say on the BBC after a Tory victory "how devastated the Lib Dems must be after failing to win this seat when everyone thought they were going to" |
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Post by carlton43 on May 21, 2021 15:02:32 GMT
This is a remarkably stable constituency in a sea of blue and with few current or historical features likely to affect the outcome of any by-election. It was formed in 1974 and has only had two MPs in all that time. The CON hold has been a continuous majoritarian one within a range of 50-63% and the winning margin within the range 19-45%. LAB have usually been a weak third and only made second place once under Corbyn in 2017 at 20.6% (up 7.9%). LD have usually been runner up, never bettering the 31.2% achieved as long ago as both 1974 and 1983; and as low as 9.0% and 4th place in 2015. Green stood 1987 to 2019 missing the one GE of 1997; never bettering 4th place 5.5% of 2019 (and a 5.5% 5th place 2015). UKIP have been a feature between 1997-2017, ranging from an initial 5th place 1.2% (behind the Referendu Party 4th 4.8%) in 1997, to being Runner-Up 13.7% 2015. The CON have weathered the Blair landslide and honeymoon period, Brexit and UKIP, HSR and environment concerns, and all the usual ebbs and flow off political fortune and minor demographics with eqanimity. Why should things change now? 29 Members have so far forgot themselves as to suggest that it will not be held this time by the CON on what I suggest to be a complete absence of any evidence whatsoever other than rank partisanship and blind hope. No other party has any true substantial core vote at all, whereas CON have a base 50% majoritarian historic base over nearly half a century of political vicissitudes. What are the 29 thinking on a prime psephological site? What do they know? Frankly what can possibly be their excuse for this foolishness? Because history does quite often repeat itself Carlton, in by-elections in safe Tory seats with the Lib Dems second. Do the stats. Bit the REAL question is, will you eat your hat if the Lib Dems do win? I have done the stats and published above. I have considered the party positions and the political climate and the opinion polls. This is a firm CON hold and I am not given to either superstition about tempting fates nor to foolish hat eating promises. |
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zoe
Conservative
Posts: 637
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Post by zoe on May 21, 2021 15:05:14 GMT
A surprising lack of attention seeking independents / comedy party candidates. i count five (Labour qualifies in that part of the world). I think that the Labour agent's address is overly optimistic: 1 Parliament ClosePrestwood Buckinghamshire HP16 9DT |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,456
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 21, 2021 15:05:28 GMT
Because history does quite often repeat itself Carlton, in by-elections in safe Tory seats with the Lib Dems second. Do the stats. Bit the REAL question is, will you eat your hat if the Lib Dems do win? I have done the stats and published above. I have considered the party positions and the political climate and the opinion polls. This is a firm CON hold and I am not given to either superstition about tempting fates nor to foolish hat eating promises. You can already start planning to drink 10 pots of Assam tea to celebrate your assertion coming true  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 21, 2021 15:33:09 GMT
Rumours that "interesting" polling for this seat could soon emerge were doing the rounds yesterday. What happened to this? |
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Post by andrew111 on May 21, 2021 15:38:46 GMT
Because history does quite often repeat itself Carlton, in by-elections in safe Tory seats with the Lib Dems second. Do the stats. Bit the REAL question is, will you eat your hat if the Lib Dems do win? I have done the stats and published above. I have considered the party positions and the political climate and the opinion polls. This is a firm CON hold and I am not given to either superstition about tempting fates nor to foolish hat eating promises. Tell me what the % fall in the Tory vote was in the 1988 Epping Forest by election when a triumphant Margaret Thatcher was on 45% in the polls.. Of course that was an easy Tory win because the SDP stood against the SLD. But let's say the Tory vote were to fall by the same amount in C&A, would it be an easy win for the Tories? |
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Post by greenhert on May 21, 2021 15:43:45 GMT
I have done the stats and published above. I have considered the party positions and the political climate and the opinion polls. This is a firm CON hold and I am not given to either superstition about tempting fates nor to foolish hat eating promises. But let's say the Tory vote were to fall by the same amount in C&A, would it be an easy win for the Tories? It was 21.7%. The combined SDP and SLD vote was still not quite as high as the Conservative vote in that by-election, unlike in the Richmond by-election a year later when the Liberal Democrats could have won had the SDP not stood, or the other way around. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 21, 2021 15:54:50 GMT
I have done the stats and published above. I have considered the party positions and the political climate and the opinion polls. This is a firm CON hold and I am not given to either superstition about tempting fates nor to foolish hat eating promises. Tell me what the % fall in the Tory vote was in the 1988 Epping Forest by election when a triumphant Margaret Thatcher was on 45% in the polls.. Of course that was an easy Tory win because the SDP stood against the SLD. But let's say the Tory vote were to fall by the same amount in C&A, would it be an easy win for the Tories? Frankly my dear,l I don't give a damn. Go a play with your bricks in the corner like a good boy and try not to make too much noise whilst we quietly just hold the seat. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 21, 2021 15:58:26 GMT
Rumours that "interesting" polling for this seat could soon emerge were doing the rounds yesterday. What happened to this? They are still working on it?  |
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Post by andrew111 on May 21, 2021 15:59:07 GMT
Tell me what the % fall in the Tory vote was in the 1988 Epping Forest by election when a triumphant Margaret Thatcher was on 45% in the polls.. Of course that was an easy Tory win because the SDP stood against the SLD.But let's say the Tory vote were to fall by the same amount in C&A, would it be an easy win for the Tories? It was 21.7%. The combined SDP and SLD vote was still not quite as high as the Conservative vote in that by-election, unlike in the Richmond by-election a year later when the Liberal Democrats could have won had the SDP not stood, or the other way around. True, but the Tories started on over 60% |
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Post by andrew111 on May 21, 2021 16:00:55 GMT
Tell me what the % fall in the Tory vote was in the 1988 Epping Forest by election when a triumphant Margaret Thatcher was on 45% in the polls.. Of course that was an easy Tory win because the SDP stood against the SLD. But let's say the Tory vote were to fall by the same amount in C&A, would it be an easy win for the Tories? Frankly my dear,l I don't give a damn. Go a play with your bricks in the corner like a good boy and try not to make too much noise whilst we quietly just hold the seat. It is OK Carlton I am playing with some toys next to a pram labelled "Beauchief resident and Empire Loyalist" |
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Post by finsobruce on May 21, 2021 16:01:44 GMT
I think the Lib Dem’s need to be a bit cautious with their outward optimism. Fair enough to campaign as the only party that can realistically threaten the Conservative position here, but they need to make sure they don’t push the expectations of an upset too much otherwise they’ll risk shooting themselves in the foot. I would expect a Tory majority of maybe 5,000 (due to what I think is inevitable protest over HS2 & lowish turnout). Lib Dems have absolutely nothing to lose here. No one is going to say on the BBC after a Tory victory "how devastated the Lib Dems must be after failing to win this seat when everyone thought they were going to" I'm sure they could find somebody who would.  |
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Post by grahammurray on May 21, 2021 16:45:36 GMT
Tell me what the % fall in the Tory vote was in the 1988 Epping Forest by election when a triumphant Margaret Thatcher was on 45% in the polls.. Of course that was an easy Tory win because the SDP stood against the SLD. But let's say the Tory vote were to fall by the same amount in C&A, would it be an easy win for the Tories? Frankly my dear,l I don't give a damn. Go a play with your bricks in the corner like a good boy and try not to make too much noise whilst we quietly just hold the seat. Who is the "we" of which you speak? |
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Post by andrew111 on May 21, 2021 16:48:42 GMT
Frankly my dear,l I don't give a damn. Go a play with your bricks in the corner like a good boy and try not to make too much noise whilst we quietly just hold the seat. Who is the "we" of which you speak? The Tory Refuk coalition |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 21, 2021 17:09:11 GMT
There is no Conservative Refuk coalition. We even have the latter's candidate on this forum and he's very clear on that.
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Post by andrew111 on May 21, 2021 17:24:19 GMT
There is no Conservative Refuk coalition. We even have the latter's candidate on this forum and he's very clear on that. If you say so! Tory Refuk just has a real ring to it! |
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Post by grahammurray on May 21, 2021 17:32:37 GMT
There is no Conservative Refuk coalition. We even have the latter's candidate on this forum and he's very clear on that. If you say so! Tory Refuk just has a real ring to it! Although it is a tautology. |
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