|
|
Post by andrew111 on May 20, 2021 15:19:49 GMT
Every Tory generation feels they were the True Tories, and are loathed to give up on that belief. Even if the current party is far removed their own personal ideology. David Gauke is another one. Can't quite accept that his ideas were less popular than Boris', and still believes his party was stolen from him. I think he probably remembered how Boris was once a big Remainer campaigning for Turkish entry. It must be hard to keep up if you are actually "conservative" and change your views rather slowly |
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on May 20, 2021 15:24:50 GMT
John Stevens did join the LibDems for a while.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 20, 2021 15:42:18 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on May 20, 2021 15:43:09 GMT
John Stevens did join the LibDems for a while. 2001-10, when he stood as an Independent in Buckingham in the GE |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on May 20, 2021 16:14:39 GMT
The same Adrian Oliver who was a Green Party parliamentary candidate twice? By the way that PDF link does not work. |
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on May 20, 2021 16:28:17 GMT
A surprising lack of attention seeking independents / comedy party candidates. |
|
|
|
Post by carolus on May 20, 2021 16:38:16 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on May 20, 2021 16:47:45 GMT
A surprising lack of attention seeking independents / comedy party candidates. i count five (Labour qualifies in that part of the world). |
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on May 20, 2021 16:47:47 GMT
A surprising lack of attention seeking independents / comedy party candidates. 6 is quite low. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on May 20, 2021 17:02:33 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by carolus on May 20, 2021 17:37:58 GMT
Whilst it was working shortly after you posted it, that one too is now dead! |
|
|
|
Post by michael2019 on May 20, 2021 17:53:47 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on May 20, 2021 18:01:39 GMT
John Stevens stood against John Bercow in 2010, who as the Speaker was unopposed by the major parties, and pushed Nigel Farage into third place.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on May 20, 2021 20:46:17 GMT
I have seen it now. Peter Fleet lives in the constituency, which must have been a significant factor in his selection. It also means the Liberal Democrats cannot play the "he does not live here" card, and nor can they play the Brexit card like they did in 2019 as that has been over and done with. HS2 will probably be the most significant campaign issue of this by-election. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on May 20, 2021 22:07:14 GMT
I have seen it now. Peter Fleet lives in the constituency, which must have been a significant factor in his selection. It also means the Liberal Democrats cannot play the "he does not live here" card, and nor can they play the Brexit card like they did in 2019 as that has been over and done with. HS2 will probably be the most significant campaign issue of this by-election. Green candidate lives in Newbury though. Quite a commute for someone concerned about climate change (although tbf it seems HS2 is much more dangerous to humanity at large) |
|
|
|
Post by samdwebber on May 20, 2021 23:55:43 GMT
Poll incoming or is he just teasing?!
|
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on May 21, 2021 3:18:29 GMT
William Hill have the Tories on 1/33 , Liberal Democrats on 10/1 and Labour on a comical 150/1 behind the Greens on 100/1.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on May 21, 2021 7:19:42 GMT
If we are looking for by-election parallels perhaps Epping Forest is a close analogue in terms of Party popularity?
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 51,037 
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on May 21, 2021 8:13:02 GMT
This is a remarkably stable constituency in a sea of blue and with few current or historical features likely to affect the outcome of any by-election. It was formed in 1974 and has only had two MPs in all that time. The CON hold has been a continuous majoritarian one within a range of 50-63% and the winning margin within the range 19-45%.
LAB have usually been a weak third and only made second place once under Corbyn in 2017 at 20.6% (up 7.9%).
LD have usually been runner up, never bettering the 31.2% achieved as long ago as both 1974 and 1983; and as low as 9.0% and 4th place in 2015.
Green stood 1987 to 2019 missing the one GE of 1997; never bettering 4th place 5.5% of 2019 (and a 5.5% 5th place 2015).
UKIP have been a feature between 1997-2017, ranging from an initial 5th place 1.2% (behind the Referendu Party 4th 4.8%) in 1997, to being Runner-Up 13.7% 2015.
The CON have weathered the Blair landslide and honeymoon period, Brexit and UKIP, HSR and environment concerns, and all the usual ebbs and flow off political fortune and minor demographics with eqanimity. Why should things change now?
29 Members have so far forgot themselves as to suggest that it will not be held this time by the CON on what I suggest to be a complete absence of any evidence whatsoever other than rank partisanship and blind hope. No other party has any true substantial core vote at all, whereas CON have a base 50% majoritarian historic base over nearly half a century of political vicissitudes. What are the 29 thinking on a prime psephological site? What do they know? Frankly what can possibly be their excuse for this foolishness?
|
|
|
|
Post by froome on May 21, 2021 8:14:06 GMT
William Hill have the Tories on 1/33 , Liberal Democrats on 10/1 and Labour on a comical 150/1 behind the Greens on 100/1. They must obviously base their odds on our polls.  |
|
