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Post by greenchristian on May 8, 2021 21:48:03 GMT
Kingston council has finally published the proper result: CHESSINGTON SOUTH: Andrew MacKinlay (LD) 1,387 Sue Towner (Conservative) 1,278 Charles Bamford (Labour) 451 Michelle Akintoye (Residents) 378 Adrian Lulham (Green) 139 Undertaking Director Brunskill (OMRLP) 16 Colonel Cramps (OMRLP) 14 Captain Coily (OMRLP) 13 Agent Chinners (OMRLP) 12 Baron Von Achenbach (OMRLP) 8 Duke Diddy Dodd (OMRLP) 8 Italo Savastio (TUSC) 7 Casual Count of Corinthian (OMRLP) 6 Kingstonian Newt (OMRLP) 6 Landlord Rover (OMRLP) 3 Landlady Lucky (OMRLP) 2 Lady Dave Pither (OMRLP) 2 Sam Joshua Squatch (OMRLP) 1 Rev. Robbie The Radical Recyclist (OMRLP) 1 www.kingston.gov.uk/news/article/119/andrew-mackinlay-elected-to-kingston-council-after-chessington-south-by-electionHow many ballots were spoiled by voting for more than the permitted number of candidates? And how many of those were for all of the Loonies? |
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Post by johnloony on May 8, 2021 21:52:47 GMT
London borough by-elections, in political order according to the 2018 results.
Column 1 : Labour lead over Conservative in 2018
Column 2 : Labour lead over Conservative in 2021
-47.8 -43.1 Croydon / Kenley
-43.5 -35.9 Barnet / Edgware
-31.1 -40.5 Bexley / Longlands
-26.8 -16.8 Richmond upon Thames / Hampton Wick
-24.8 -20.5 Croydon / Park Hill & Whitgift
-23.4 -22.2 Kingston upon Thames / Chessington South
-14.3 -09.1 Hackney / Stamford Hill West
-14.1 -07.4 Ealing / Hanger Hill
-11.9 -12.5 Waltham Forest / Hatch Lane
-11.1 -08.7 Ealing / Broadway
-05.5 -07.1 Hillingdon / Charville
01.9 -05.0 Barnet / East Barnet
02.2 11.0 Westminster / Churchill
04.5 -07.5 Enfield / Chase
07.9 16.0 Brent / Brondesbury Park
14.2 16.7 Wandsworth / Bedford
31.4 17.9 Ealing / Hobbayne
32.1 08.9 Greenwich / Kidbrooke with Horsfair
33.5 13.8 Enfield / Southbury
36.2 29.0 Greenwich / Greenwich West
37.8 32.2 Lewisham / Sydenham
38.9 25.9 Islington / St Peter's
39.5 26.1 Greenwich / Shooters Hill
40.2 28.2 Enfield / Jubilee
40.3 30.0 Islington / Bunhill
40.8 09.1 Croydon / New Addington North
42.0 36.2 Lewisham / Bellingham
42.5 35.1 Lewisham / Catford South
44.0 21.4 Croydon / Woodside
44.2 34.5 Bromley / Crystal Palace
44.2 22.9 Hounslow / Cranford
46.1 24.6 Hounslow / Hounslow Heath
47.0 27.8 Merton / St Helier
50.6 43.2 Greenwich / Glyndon
53.2 29.1 Islington / Highbury West
53.8 25.9 Croydon / South Norwood
54.7 50.5 Lewisham / New Cross
56.9 43.0 Hackney / Hoxton East & Shoreditch
57.6 43.4 Islington / Holloway
58.0 41.1 Islington / Midway
59.9 45.5 Redbridge / Loxford
60.4 37.0 Redbridge / Seven Kings
64.8 39.5 Hackney / Woodbury Down
65.8 23.6 Newham / East Ham Central
68.5 56.9 Hackney / Kings Park
69.0 16.6 Barking & Dagenham / Thames
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Post by johnloony on May 8, 2021 21:53:40 GMT
Kingston council has finally published the proper result: CHESSINGTON SOUTH: Andrew MacKinlay (LD) 1,387 Sue Towner (Conservative) 1,278 Charles Bamford (Labour) 451 Michelle Akintoye (Residents) 378 Adrian Lulham (Green) 139 Undertaking Director Brunskill (OMRLP) 16 Colonel Cramps (OMRLP) 14 Captain Coily (OMRLP) 13 Agent Chinners (OMRLP) 12 Baron Von Achenbach (OMRLP) 8 Duke Diddy Dodd (OMRLP) 8 Italo Savastio (TUSC) 7 Casual Count of Corinthian (OMRLP) 6 Kingstonian Newt (OMRLP) 6 Landlord Rover (OMRLP) 3 Landlady Lucky (OMRLP) 2 Lady Dave Pither (OMRLP) 2 Sam Joshua Squatch (OMRLP) 1 Rev. Robbie The Radical Recyclist (OMRLP) 1 www.kingston.gov.uk/news/article/119/andrew-mackinlay-elected-to-kingston-council-after-chessington-south-by-electionHow many ballots were spoiled by voting for more than the permitted number of candidates? And how many of those were for all of the Loonies? 6 and don't know respectively |
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Post by johnloony on May 8, 2021 22:29:01 GMT
By-elections in the London Boroughs, in order of net swing from Conservative to Labour.
The 1st and 2nd columns are as above (2018 and 2021 Lab/Con difference)
The 3rd column is the net swing from Conservative to Labour.
-26.8 -16.8 +05.0 Richmond upon Thames / Hampton Wick
+02.2 +11.0 +04.4 Westminster / Churchill
+07.9 +16.0 +04.1 Brent / Brondesbury Park
-43.5 -35.9 +03.8 Barnet / Edgware
-14.1 -07.4 +03.3 Ealing / Hanger Hill
-14.3 -09.1 +02.6 Hackney / Stamford Hill West
-47.8 -43.1 +02.3 Croydon / Kenley
-24.8 -20.5 +02.2 Croydon / Park Hill & Whitgift
-11.1 -08.7 +01.2 Ealing / Ealing Broadway
+14.2 +16.7 +01.2 Wandsworth / Bedford
-23.4 -22.2 +00.6 Kingston upon Thames / Chessington South
-11.9 -12.5 -00.3 Waltham Forest / Hatch Lane
-05.5 -07.1 -00.8 Hillingdon / Charville
+54.7 +50.5 -02.1 Lewisham / New Cross
+37.8 +32.2 -02.8 Lewisham / Sydenham
+42.0 +36.2 -02.9 Lewisham / Bellingham
+01.9 -05.0 -03.4 Barnet / East Barnet
+36.2 +29.0 -03.6 Greenwich / Greenwich West
+50.6 +43.2 -03.7 Greenwich / Glyndon
+42.5 +35.1 -03.7 Lewisham / Catford South
+44.2 +34.5 -03.8 Bromley / Crystal Palace
-31.1 -40.5 -04.7 Bexley / Longlands
+40.3 +30.0 -05.2 Islington / Bunhill
+68.5 +56.9 -05.8 Hackney / Kings Park
+04.5 -07.5 -06.0 Enfield / Chase
+40.2 +28.2 -06.0 Enfield / Jubilee
+38.9 +25.9 -06.5 Islington / St Peter's
+39.5 +26.1 -06.7 Greenwich / Shooters Hill
+31.4 +17.9 -06.8 Ealing / Hobbayne
+56.9 +43.0 -06.9 Hackney / Hoxton East & Shoreditch
+57.6 +43.4 -07.1 Islington / Holloway
+59.9 +45.5 -07.2 Redbridge / Loxford
+58.0 +41.1 -08.4 Islington / Midway
+44.2 +22.9 -09.6 Hounslow / Cranford
+47.0 +27.8 -09.6 Merton / St Helier
+33.5 +13.8 -09.9 Enfield / Southbury
+46.1 +24.6 -10.8 Hounslow / Hounslow Heath
+44.0 +21.4 -11.3 Croydon / Woodside
+32.1 +08.9 -11.6 Greenwich / Kidbrooke with Horsfair
+60.4 +37.0 -11.7 Redbridge / Seven Kings
+53.2 +29.1 -12.1 Islington / Highbury West
+64.8 +39.5 -12.6 Hackney / Woodbury Down
+53.8 +25.9 -13.9 Croydon / South Norwood
+40.8 +09.1 -15.8 Croydon / New Addington North
+65.8 +23.6 -21.1 Newham / East Ham Central
+69.0 +16.6 -26.2 Barking & Dagenham / Thames
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Post by johnloony on May 8, 2021 22:51:31 GMT
By-elections in the London Boroughs, in order of net swing from Conservative to Labour. The 1st and 2nd columns are as above (2018 and 2021 Lab/Con difference) The 3rd column is the net swing from Conservative to Labour. ... There were 10 by-elections (out of the 46) which had a net swing to Labour, but 8 of those were in Conservative-held seats. |
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Post by johnloony on May 8, 2021 23:29:47 GMT
The results which have not otherwise been listed individually on this thread:
Barking & Dagenham / Thames
Lab 1545
Con 939
Ind 574
TUSC 345
CPA 158
LD 81
Enfield / Jubilee
Lab 2170
Con 1070
Grn 321
LD 171
TTIP 100
TUSC 63
Enfield / Southbury
Lab 1961
Con 1380
Grn 470
LD 246
TUSC 82
We Matter 37
TTIP 36
Greenwich / Glyndon
Lab 2520
Con 689
Grn 546
LD 402
TUSC 87
Greenwich / Greenwich West
Lab 3203
Con 1228
Grn 1135
LD 1121
OMRLP 110
Greenwich / Kidbrooke with Horsfair
Lab 1928
Con 1519
Grn 621
LD 261
Ind 225
Greenwich / Shooters Hill
Lab 2479
Con 1286
Grn 548
LD 262
Hounslow / Cranford
Lab 2129
Con 1191
Ind 355
Grn 284
LD 133
Hounslow / Hounslow Heath
Lab 2179
Con 1150
LD 386
Grn 322
TUSC 154
Lewisham / Bellingham
Lab 2118
Con 738
Grn 336
PBP 303
LD 210
CPA 80
Lewisham / Catford South
Labn 2473
LD 891
Con 761
Grn 590
CPA 114
YPP 52
Lewisham / New Cross
Lab 3038
Grn 862
Con 526
PBP 219
LD 214
TUSC 111
Lewisham / Sydenham
Lab 2634
Con 982
Grn 820
LD 513
PBP 188
Merton / St Helier
Lab 1859
Con 907
Grn 409
LD 241
Newham / East Ham Central
Lab 2297
Con 1288
Grn 283
LD 239
CPA 115
TUSC 91
Waltham Forest / Hatch Lane
Con 2072 50.9%
Lab 1565 38.4%
Grn 266 6.5%
LD 170 4.2%
Wandsworth / Bedford
Lab 2714
Con 1778
Grn 816
LD 310
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Post by johnloony on May 9, 2021 0:18:26 GMT
I think that makes 34 where the Green Party got more votes than the Lib Dems, and 12 where the Lib Dems got more than the Green Party (including about 4 where there was no Green candidate)
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Post by johnloony on May 9, 2021 2:15:19 GMT
That's what I wrote about 7 hours ago  |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 9, 2021 9:43:50 GMT
Based on these and the Mayoral/GLA results the Conservatives should gain control in Havering and Sutton next year. I would also say the Conservatives have a real chance of gaining Croydon and Harrow. Likewise Labour should be finally be winning back Wandsworth. Not sure I see any other likely changes.
Obviously 12 months is a long time in politics so all the usual caveats apply!
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Post by middleenglander on May 10, 2021 14:33:16 GMT
There were 362 vacancies contested in by-elections / "double" elections on 06 May; 46 of these were in 22 of the 32 London Boroughs. Conservatives retained 9 seats and gained 2 from Labour who retained 33 of their seats whilst Liberal Democrats retained 1 and gained 1 from Greens following a somewhat contrived election in 2018. The majority used to calculate the change since 2018 is the top winning share less corresponding share of the runner up party as shown in Andrew Teal's LEAP. | Party | Authority | Ward | 2021 majority | since
2018 | Runner up | | Conservative |
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| | - retained | Barnet | Edgware | 36.0% | - 4.6% | Labour |
| Bexley | Longlands | 40.5% | + 6.8% | Labour |
| Croydon | Kenley | 43.1% | - 2.5% | Labour |
| Croydon | Park Hill & Whitgift | 20.5% | - 2.3% | Labour |
| Ealing | Broadway | 8.7% | - 2.0% | Labour |
| Ealing | Hanger Hill | 7.4% | - 6.0% | Labour |
| Hackney | Stamford Hill West | 9.1% | - 2.7% | Labour |
| Hillingdon | Charville | 7.0% | + 3.8% | Labour |
| Waltham Forest | Hatch Lane | 12.4% | + 0.8% | Labour | | - gained from Labour | Barnet | East Barnet | 5.0% |
| 3.1% swing |
| Enfield | Chase | 7.5% |
| 6.3% swing | | Labour |
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| | - retained | Barking & Dagenham | Thames | 16.6% | - 49.4% | Conservative |
| Brent | Brondesbury Park | 16.0% | + 13.1% | Conservative |
| Bromley | Crystal Palace | 33.6% | - 7.9% | Green |
| Croydon | New Addington | 9.2% | - 30.8% | Conservative |
| Croydon | South Norwood | 24.2% | - 26.1% | Conservative |
| Croydon | Woodside | 21.4% | - 21.5% | Conservative |
| Ealing | Habbayne | 17.9% | - 13.3% | Conservative |
| Enfield | Jubilee | 28.2% | -10.9% | Conservative |
| Enfield | Southbury | 13.9% | - 19.7% | Conservative |
| Greenwich | Glyndon | 43.2% | - 2.2%
| Conservative was Localist |
| Greenwich | Greenwich West | 29.1% | - 6.1% | Liberal Democrat |
| Greenwich | Kidbrook with Horsfair | 9.0% | - 21.4% | Conservative |
| Greenwich | Shooters Hill | 26.1% | - 11.9% | Conservative |
| Hackney | Hoxton East & Shoreditch | 37.7% | - 12.1% | Green |
| Hackney | Kings Park | 47.7% | - 8.1% | Green |
| Hackney | Woodbury Down | 39.3% | - 21.1% | Green |
| Hounslow | Cranford | 22.9% | - 18.4% | Conservative |
| Hounslow | Hounslow Heath | 24.6% | - 19.0% | Conservative |
| Islington | Bunhill | 30.6% | - 8.0% | Conservative |
| Islington | Highbury West | 11.5% | - 24.1% | Green |
| Islington | Holloway | 41.9% | - 10.6% | Green |
| Islington | Mildway | 34.4% | - 15.5% | Green |
| Islington | St Peter's | 23.0% | - 13.6% | Liberal Democrat |
| Lewisham | Bellingham | 36.5% | - 5.6% | Conservative |
| Lewisham | Catford South | 32.4% | - 3.2% | Liberal Democrat was Green |
| Lewisham | New Cross | 43.8% | + 2.3% | Green |
| Lewisham | Sydenham | 32.2% | + 0.2% | Conservative was Green |
| Merton | St Helier | 27.9% | - 18.4% | Conservative |
| Newham | East Ham Central | 23.4% | - 41.1% | Conservative |
| Redbridge | Loxford | 45.5% | - 14.8% | Conservative |
| Redbridge | Severn Kings | 27.0% | - 30.6% | Conservative |
| Wandsworth | Bedford | 16.7% | + 1.2% | Conservative |
| Westminster | Churchill | 11.0% | + 9.0% | Conservative | | Liberal Democrat |
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| | - retained | Kingston upon Thames | Chessington South | 2.9% | - 19.0% | Conservative | | - gained from Green | Richmond upon Thames | Hampton Wick ^ | 26.1% | + 4.9% | Conservative |
^ The underlying 2018 Liberal Democrat majority over Conservatives in Hampton Wick was probably around 21.2%. The Conservative majorities fell in 6 of the 9 seats they retained although the reductions were generally modest. The fall in Labour majorities were generally more pronounced with 12 showing 10% to 20% reductions, 5 in the range 20% to 30% and a further 4 over 40%. However 3 of the Labour seats most at risk of the Conservatives winning, excluding the 2 actually lost, saw the majority increase. |
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Post by evergreenadam on May 10, 2021 18:43:12 GMT
The Kidbrooke with Hornfair result is interesting. Wonder where the Tory vote came from.
New ward boundaries for next May’s election have yet to be finalised.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2021 18:45:27 GMT
The Ferrier estate is (was) in Eltham West no?
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Post by evergreenadam on May 10, 2021 18:50:28 GMT
The Ferrier estate is (was) in Eltham West no? Sorry, you are absolutely right, original post amended. |
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