Adam
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Post by Adam on Apr 11, 2021 20:27:21 GMT
Without a certificate of authorisation they would still stand nominated but with no description on the ballot paper. But I suppose that would go against what they were trying to do. Or would it if that was to ridicule elections.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 11, 2021 20:38:16 GMT
I suppose this must be permitted under electoral lsw and will have been made easier by the Covid emergeny requirement that only 2 signatories to the nomination were required. Nothing wrong with them standing one candidate to make their point that elections are a joke or don't make a diference or whatever it is, but surely this is going too far as it amounts to, whether intended or not, sabotaging the election (and much useless work for the counters). One consequence may be that requiring only two to nominate is unlikely to become permanent. There has never been any suggestion that the reduction from 10 to 2 nomination signatures was ever intended to be anything other than temporary, only during the Covid pandemic. |
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Apr 11, 2021 20:54:33 GMT
Because electors nominate, parties do not, parties merely authorise a person to stand under their description. Really... so a certificate of authorisation from the party’s nominating officer doesn’t count? Its a certificate of authorisation. You will note that the nomination paper is signed by two electors, not by the nominating officer. I am a deputy nominating officer and have signed certificates only a couple of weeks back, they do not refer to nominating candidates. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Apr 11, 2021 21:06:49 GMT
Because electors nominate, parties do not, parties merely authorise a person to stand under their description. Really... so a certificate of authorisation from the party’s nominating officer doesn’t count? Correct. You can stand for election without a party authorisation form, you simply are not authorised to have that party's description on your ballot paper, so it does not appear on the ballot paper. |
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Adam
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Post by Adam on Apr 11, 2021 21:36:46 GMT
There has never been any suggestion that the reduction from 10 to 2 nomination signatures was ever intended to be anything other than temporary, only during the Covid pandemic. So next time the Official Monster Loonies want to field 13 candidates in the same ward they’ll have to get 130 different signatures. I can’t see them being bothered to do that. So fortunately this is likely to be a one-off. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 12, 2021 11:11:43 GMT
There has never been any suggestion that the reduction from 10 to 2 nomination signatures was ever intended to be anything other than temporary, only during the Covid pandemic. So next time the Official Monster Loonies want to field 13 candidates in the same ward they’ll have to get 130 different signatures. I can’t see them being bothered to do that. So fortunately this is likely to be a one-off. They did get 90 signatures in 2012 when they had 9 candidates. The ward this time is bigger than that one was, so it's certainly possible. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 12, 2021 14:27:35 GMT
I suppose this must be permitted under electoral lsw and will have been made easier by the Covid emergeny requirement that only 2 signatories to the nomination were required. Nothing wrong with them standing one candidate to make their point that elections are a joke or don't make a diference or whatever it is, but surely this is going too far as it amounts to, whether intended or not, sabotaging the election (and much useless work for the counters). One consequence may be that requiring only two to nominate is unlikely to become permanent. There has never been any suggestion that the reduction from 10 to 2 nomination signatures was ever intended to be anything other than temporary, only during the Covid pandemic. In any case it did not result in any significant increase in the number of candidates nominated, even for smaller parties. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 12, 2021 16:29:44 GMT
There has never been any suggestion that the reduction from 10 to 2 nomination signatures was ever intended to be anything other than temporary, only during the Covid pandemic. In any case it did not result in any significant increase in the number of candidates nominated, even for smaller parties. It did for the London Mayoral election, and arguably there are more candidates than I had expected for the Croydon by-elections. |
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Post by robert1 on Apr 12, 2021 18:37:03 GMT
There has never been any suggestion that the reduction from 10 to 2 nomination signatures was ever intended to be anything other than temporary, only during the Covid pandemic. In any case it did not result in any significant increase in the number of candidates nominated, even for smaller parties. I think I explained elsewhere that I had pressed for the reduction from 10 to 2 signatories with the support of Baroness Hayter (Lab) and Lord Rennard (LD). Baroness Hayter was even generous enough to refer to it as the 'Hayward amendment'.
On welcoming the SI which implemented the change, I said that I hoped this would become permanent (currently the reduction will last till Feb 2022). Lord Kennedy from the Labour front bench indicated his support for this suggestion.
Greenhert is correct. Comparing the percentage of seats contested by Ind/Others in 2016/7 with 2021 there has been no real change.
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Post by greenhert on Apr 12, 2021 19:48:17 GMT
In any case it did not result in any significant increase in the number of candidates nominated, even for smaller parties. It did for the London Mayoral election, and arguably there are more candidates than I had expected for the Croydon by-elections. The 20 candidates for the London Mayoral election still in fact had to collect 66 signatures, 2 from each borough plus the City of London. Given the amount of travel involved this is more effort than most candidates I know would make just to get on the ballot, not to mention the fact that the London Mayoral deposit is steep at £10,000. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 15, 2021 14:05:01 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 23, 2021 14:46:37 GMT
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Post by mrhell on May 4, 2021 12:48:57 GMT
I've only just come across the Loony situation in Kingston. I did enjoy that.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 4, 2021 14:09:22 GMT
This thread seems to have been quiet for a while, so I have been contemplating the five by-elections in Croydon. I have been thinking about these much more than I have been thinking about the other elections happening.
Out of the five wards, the most interesting is probably New Addington North. It has the biggest range of possible likely outcomes. New Addington North has always had Labour councillors, but the Labour lead has been diminishing gradually over the last 20 years or so. Unlike the other Labour wards in Croydon, it is overwhelmingly white working-class and with a relatively very low BAME population. In 2006, there was a big vote for BNP candidates in the local elections, and more recently a big vote for UKIP. We reckon that in the 2019 general election, the votes in New Addington North were Labour 50% Conservative 42%, so there is obviously the potential for hoovering up all the Brexity votes. If this were a normal by-election, standing on its own, with no other elections happening at the same time, then there would be a very low turnout (20% or 25%) and there could be anything from a Labour: Conservative ratio of 3:1 to a narrow result or a Conservative gain. The wild card is a popular young local independent candidate who is very active in the local community; he could potentially get a few hundred votes and I am expecting him to come third. But the third place could be any of the four minor candidates (Independent, BNP, Green, LibDem).
South Norwood ward, and Woodside ward, are both safe Labour wards which should be held easily by Labour, but (hopefully) Labour might be damaged by the issue of the poor housing conditions in a local tower block in South Norwood, which was recently exposed by an ITV news report.
Park Hill & Whitgift ward (which is where I live) is comfortably (but not overwhelmingly) Conservative, with lots of young renters in modest housing, as well as rich old people and businessmen in big houses. It is the sort of Place which might be demographically trending gradually towards Labour in the long run. Labour will not win here, but they will hope to close the gap compared with the local elections in 2018 (Conservative 1110, Labour 618).
Kenley is a very safe Conservative ward in the deep south, and the only question is whether Labour or the Lib Dem will be in a very distant 2nd place.
The big unknown factor is that the by-elections are on the same date as the GLA election, and there will therefore be a much higher turnout than they would normally be in local council by elections. This inevitably means that many hundreds of people in each ward will be voting, who would not normally vote in local elections at all (let alone by elections). This might mean that the results (especially in New Addington North) will be blunted and blurred in terms of the percentages of the votes for the parties.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 4, 2021 14:29:40 GMT
This thread seems to have been quiet for a while, so I have been contemplating the five by-elections in Croydon. I have been thinking about these much more than I have been thinking about the other elections happening. Out of the five wards, the most interesting is probably New Addington North. It has the biggest range of possible likely outcomes. New Addington North has always had Labour councillors, but the Labour lead has been diminishing gradually over the last 20 years or so. Unlike the other Labour wards in Croydon, it is overwhelmingly white working-class and with a relatively very low BAME population. In 2006, there was a big vote for BNP candidates in the local elections, and more recently a big vote for UKIP. We reckon that in the 2019 general election, the votes in New Addington North were Labour 50% Conservative 42%, so there is obviously the potential for hoovering up all the Brexity votes. If this were a normal by-election, standing on its own, with no other elections happening at the same time, then there would be a very low turnout (20% or 25%) and there could be anything from a Labour: Conservative ratio of 3:1 to a narrow result or a Conservative gain. The wild card is a popular young local independent candidate who is very active in the local community; he could potentially get a few hundred votes and I am expecting him to come third. But the third place could be any of the four minor candidates (Independent, BNP, Green, LibDem). That isn't really true anymore is it, actually hasn't been for a long time. Only 61% White British in 2011 - over a third non-White, 22% Black (almost in the top 100 wards nationally) and a very large mixed race population - and that is ten years out of date. I assume that any demographic changes since then have not involved the area becoming less black |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 4, 2021 17:53:25 GMT
This thread seems to have been quiet for a while, so I have been contemplating the five by-elections in Croydon. I have been thinking about these much more than I have been thinking about the other elections happening. Out of the five wards, the most interesting is probably New Addington North. It has the biggest range of possible likely outcomes. New Addington North has always had Labour councillors, but the Labour lead has been diminishing gradually over the last 20 years or so. Unlike the other Labour wards in Croydon, it is overwhelmingly white working-class and with a relatively very low BAME population. In 2006, there was a big vote for BNP candidates in the local elections, and more recently a big vote for UKIP. We reckon that in the 2019 general election, the votes in New Addington North were Labour 50% Conservative 42%, so there is obviously the potential for hoovering up all the Brexity votes. If this were a normal by-election, standing on its own, with no other elections happening at the same time, then there would be a very low turnout (20% or 25%) and there could be anything from a Labour: Conservative ratio of 3:1 to a narrow result or a Conservative gain. The wild card is a popular young local independent candidate who is very active in the local community; he could potentially get a few hundred votes and I am expecting him to come third. But the third place could be any of the four minor candidates (Independent, BNP, Green, LibDem). That isn't really true anymore is it, actually hasn't been for a long time. Only 61% White British in 2011 - over a third non-White, 22% Black (almost in the top 100 wards nationally) and a very large mixed race population - and that is ten years out of date. I assume that any demographic changes since then have not involved the area becoming less black The statistics in my brain or my memory must have been out of date. I was thinking that the white population was more like 80% rather than 60 something %. In any case, it is still a very low percentage of BME people compared with other safe Labour wards in Croydon. |
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Post by evergreenadam on May 4, 2021 18:23:33 GMT
This thread seems to have been quiet for a while, so I have been contemplating the five by-elections in Croydon. I have been thinking about these much more than I have been thinking about the other elections happening. Out of the five wards, the most interesting is probably New Addington North. It has the biggest range of possible likely outcomes. New Addington North has always had Labour councillors, but the Labour lead has been diminishing gradually over the last 20 years or so. Unlike the other Labour wards in Croydon, it is overwhelmingly white working-class and with a relatively very low BAME population. In 2006, there was a big vote for BNP candidates in the local elections, and more recently a big vote for UKIP. We reckon that in the 2019 general election, the votes in New Addington North were Labour 50% Conservative 42%, so there is obviously the potential for hoovering up all the Brexity votes. If this were a normal by-election, standing on its own, with no other elections happening at the same time, then there would be a very low turnout (20% or 25%) and there could be anything from a Labour: Conservative ratio of 3:1 to a narrow result or a Conservative gain. The wild card is a popular young local independent candidate who is very active in the local community; he could potentially get a few hundred votes and I am expecting him to come third. But the third place could be any of the four minor candidates (Independent, BNP, Green, LibDem). South Norwood ward, and Woodside ward, are both safe Labour wards which should be held easily by Labour, but (hopefully) Labour might be damaged by the issue of the poor housing conditions in a local tower block in South Norwood, which was recently exposed by an ITV news report. Park Hill & Whitgift ward (which is where I live) is comfortably (but not overwhelmingly) Conservative, with lots of young renters in modest housing, as well as rich old people and businessmen in big houses. It is the sort of Place which might be demographically trending gradually towards Labour in the long run. Labour will not win here, but they will hope to close the gap compared with the local elections in 2018 (Conservative 1110, Labour 618). Kenley is a very safe Conservative ward in the deep south, and the only question is whether Labour or the Lib Dem will be in a very distant 2nd place. The big unknown factor is that the by-elections are on the same date as the GLA election, and there will therefore be a much higher turnout than they would normally be in local council by elections. This inevitably means that many hundreds of people in each ward will be voting, who would not normally vote in local elections at all (let alone by elections). This might mean that the results (especially in New Addington North) will be blunted and blurred in terms of the percentages of the votes for the parties. I’m not expecting a good turnout, the London Mayoral campaign has been very dull, no window posters or stakeboards here in west London. Postal vote turnout may hold up but polling station turnout may drop. |
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Post by michaelarden on May 4, 2021 22:54:14 GMT
This thread seems to have been quiet for a while, so I have been contemplating the five by-elections in Croydon. I have been thinking about these much more than I have been thinking about the other elections happening. South Norwood ward, and Woodside ward, are both safe Labour wards which should be held easily by Labour, but (hopefully) Labour might be damaged by the issue of the poor housing conditions in a local tower block in South Norwood, which was recently exposed by an ITV news report.
Is it likely to have any impact?
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 5, 2021 19:55:16 GMT
This thread seems to have been quiet for a while, so I have been contemplating the five by-elections in Croydon. I have been thinking about these much more than I have been thinking about the other elections happening. South Norwood ward, and Woodside ward, are both safe Labour wards which should be held easily by Labour, but (hopefully) Labour might be damaged by the issue of the poor housing conditions in a local tower block in South Norwood, which was recently exposed by an ITV news report. Is it likely to have any impact?
To be frank, no. My colleagues have told me that, from their canvassing, ordinary people just aren't aware of the horrendous housing issue - or only minimally so. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2021 22:17:09 GMT
A party called "Taking the Initiative" is standing in S Norwood and has been very prominent locally with posters and leafleting. From its literature I infer that it is led by/targeted at black voters with a small business friendly centre right-ish perspective. No chance of a win ofc but you might expect them to do a bit better than the average also ran candidate.
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