Icelandic Parliamentary Election 2021

[nelson]

The government won't be presenting a budget proposal when the Alting convenes on Tuesday (the last day it can legally convene), which is highly unusual. It's also clear that they haven't agreed on energy extraction/export and the highland national park. Everyone still expects the three parties to form a new government, but it's clear they haven't actually agreed on a number of core issues.

The results of the preparatory ballot paper committee will be announced on Tuesday, then the actual ballot paper committee will be elected and the Althing will vote on the validity of the election results. So we'll know by then that they'll do about the mess in the NW.

[nelson]

Nov 18, 2021 18:44:05 GMT nelson said:

The results of the preparatory ballot paper committee will be announced on Tuesday, then the actual ballot paper committee will be elected and the Althing will vote on the validity of the election results. So we'll know by then that they'll do about the mess in the NW.

The members of the preparatory ballot paper committee were all elected to the ballot paper committee. It's chairman, from IP, says a clear majority of the committee recommend to let the results based on the recount in the NW stand since the errors are unlikely to have affected the results, but that he expects several alternative proposals from the minority to be tabled. The Althing will vote on the proposals on Thursday, but it would be a big surprise if they don't follow the majority's recommendation. All members apart from the Pirates' rep have signed the committee's report about its findings. 

The Pirates have said they'll propose a national revote, which seems counterproductive as no one else are likely to support it. 

Will be interesting so see if this will lead to anti-government protests. 

[nelson]

Reportedly the three government parties will support reaffirming the post-recount results, while the opposition parties will support a recount in the NW constituency apart from the Pirates who want a full national recount. No one will support sticking to the original count (which was quite obviously flawed).

So unless some LG MPs vote with the opposition there'll be no recount. 

[nelson]

The Althing approved the results based on the recount in the NW by 42 votes to 5 (the Pirates), with 16 abstentions.

Before that the Pirates' proposal to vote again in the entire country had been rejected by 53 votes to six with four abstentions, and the LG and SDA proposal to vote again in the NW constituency had been rejected by 42 votes to 16 with four of the Pirates abstaining. 

Pirate alternate Indrið Ingi Stefánsson's proposal to base the results in the NW on the initial count got support from four MPs with 55 voting against it and four abstaining. 

More or less as expected but hard to say how big a backlash there'll be against the decision. There's also a complaint to the police in the SW about about possible fraud (based on the presence of uneven sized/non-standard ballot papers). The public's faith in the electoral process is bound to suffer from this mess. 

[nelson]

With the new Althing now being seated the PM's office has confirmed the government agreement and the new government will be announced on Sunday. 

[nelson]

Headlines from the government agreement:

# Focus on climate change, the environment and health care issues and the elderly. 
# Response to technological change. 
# Emphasis on domestic food production. 
# Emphasis on energy exchange. 
# Emphasis on ensuring economic stability for the benefit of households and the economy.
# Public investment in infrastructure to be continued.
# Ensuring the living conditions of working people in a changing world.

...

IP gets 5 ministries, PP four and LG three.

Will­um Þór Þórs­son from PP becomes Minister of Health, LG's deputy leader Svandís Svavars­dótt­ir becomes Minisrer of Food, Fishing and Agriculture (rather surprising that PP didn't demand to get that one). Environment goes to IP and Guðmund­ur Ingi Guðbrands­son (LG) instead becomes Minister of Social Affairs and Labour. 

[nelson]

The new cabinet:

Left Greens: 

Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir
Minister of Social Affairs and the Labour Market Guðmundur Ingi Guðbrandsson 
Minister of Food, Fishing and Agriculture Svandís Svavarsdóttir 


Independence Party

Minister of Finance Bjarni Benediktsson
Minister of Foreign Affairs Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir 
Minister of Environment and Energy Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson (ex-Foreign Minister and leader of the IP right wing)
Minister of Innovation, Research and Universities Áslaug Arna Sigurbjörnsdóttir 
Minister of the Interior Jón Gunnarsson 

Progress Party:

Minister of Health Willum Þór Þórsson 
Minister of Infrastructure Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson (incl. national planning, which gets transferred from Environment)
Minister of Business and Culture Lilja Dögg Alfreðdóttir 
Minister of Schools and Children Ásmundur Einar Daðason 

IP also gets the Speaker position for Birgir Ármannsson, who replaces LG founder and ex-chairman Steingrímur J. Sigfússon.


Very strong IP representation and weak PP representation compared to what was anticipated at the start of the negotiations when they expected to get finance. Once again the South constituency doesn't get an IP minister, which they are very mad at (it's a traditional IP stronghold). 
 

[nelson]

Nov 28, 2021 19:12:21 GMT nelson said:

Very strong IP representation and weak PP representation compared to what was anticipated at the start of the negotiations when they expected to get finance. Once again the South constituency doesn't get an IP minister, which they are very mad at (it's a traditional IP stronghold). 
 

Okay, it's agreed that the lead candidate for the South constituency Guðrún Haftsteinsdóttir will replace 65-year old Jón Gunnarsson as Minister of the Interior within 18 months. A somewhat odd compromise, but I assume he plans to retire mid-term. That will also create gender parity in the government.

I've looked at the governing agreement and it seems like a bad deal for LG. It's debatable whether the climate and oil exploration. It's also clear that the three parties don't agree on energy, constitutional reform and fishing fees.

The main focus areas are climate, health care and technological innovation, which the LG minister won't be in charge of.

- Iceland will reduce it's CO2 and other climate gas emissions with 55% by 2030 compared to 2005, and phase out fossil fuels by 2040.
- No oil exploration in Iceland's territorial waters and economic zone.
- The Highland National Park will only consist of areas already protected (major defeat for LG).
The university hospital Landspítali will be governed by an expert council.
Overview of fishing policy to maximize profit while also making the sector greener. switch from heavy fuels to greener fuels and no exemptions from climate regulation.
A committee will look into whether the big fishing companies (three networks control 60% of the quotas) will have to increase transparency and information level (very vague in view of previous promises after the massive corruption scandals associated with the “fishing giant” Samherji).
An expert committee will look into certain parts of the Constitution and suggest changes. But the government is not obligated to present these proposals in parliament (more kicking the can down the road).
No meda support program like the other Nordic countries have (and PP and LG both support), but the existing “editorial grants” during the Corona pandemic will be evaluated.
Continued privatization of the banks, more private initiatives in health care and elderly care.
Private companies to be in charge of most road and other infrastructure construction, and the projects to be partly paid for by road tolls.
The municipalities get the proceeds from the room tax instead of the state.
Access fees for foreigners to popular tourist destinations.

Al in all this looks more like an IP government in disguise than the previous government agreement, which is surprising given their lower share of seats compared to LG/PP and weak parliamentary position. Looks like the PP right wing won the intern arm-twisting with the left wing, also reflected in Ásmundur Einar Daðason not getting a promotion as expected. Many of the new voters voting PP due to their left leaning campaign will be disappointed.

[nelson]

The lawyer and parliamentary candidate for the Pirates Magnús Davíð Norðdahl has appealed the decision to accept the results of the election in the NW constituency before the European Court of Human Rights. That won't have any influence on the validity of the election, but might be embarrassing for the government all the same.