Icelandic Parliamentary Election 2021

[nelson]

Sept 27, 2021 12:33:49 GMT nelson said:

Seems that the total number of ballots changed between the initial count and the recount, and if so that's obviously dodgy. 

It's a minor discrepancy, two extra ballots were counted and the total increased from 17,666 to 17,668. The number of blank votes fell from 394 to 382 and the number of invalid votes increased from 24 to 35.  

Change by party:

IP +10
Socialists +7
PP +5
Independent +1
...
Total +23

Reform -9
Centre Party -5
People's Party -3
Pirates -1
SDA -1
LG -1
...
Total -20

It looks like a regular counting error, nothing out of the ordinary so I doubt there'll be a revote. But the changes were a bit bigger than usual for Icelandic recounts - especially the changes in personal votes - and given that the electoral law was undoubtedly broken and the unfortunate domino effect on the levelling seat distribution it can't totally be ruled out. 

[nelson]

There'll be a recount in the South constituency this evening, if LG gains eight votes on Centre they get a constituency seat which will then once again change the allocation of the levelling seats, if they gain seven it's a tie which afaik will be decided by a coin toss, let's hope it doesn't come to that. 

[nelson]

Well, the recount in South led to zero changes, neither in the party vote nor the personal vote.

The head of the Central Electoral Committee in NW says the hall with the ballots was monitored by video cameras and that he knows for a fact that no one "unauthorized" entered, but since members of the committee could themselves have tampered with the ballots that's not going to be the end of the matter, and there'll still be an investigation and the it'll take a while before the Althing's ballot committee decides what to do. 

[nelson]

I wrote earlier that the old Althing would rule on the validity of the election since the new one couldn't be seated before the election was certified, but it turns out it is actually the new Althing that's going to vote on the validity of its own election (the Icelandic Constitution - hastily rewritten in 1944 when the country decided to become a republic and intended as a temporary document to be properly revised later on - is filled with such contradictions, which is one reason many want it reformed).

The procedure is that at the first meeting of the new Althing a ballot committee of nine members is elected. The committee then reviews the complaints and ballot papers that have been disputed and writes an opinion on them and prepares proposals for how to handle the various issues.

That opinion is then presented at a parliamentary session and the MPs then vote on the proposals of the ballot committee. This will obviously give MPs elected on levelling seats a major incentive to vote for a solution to the mess in the NW which saves their own seat, and since party discipline is relatively lax in Iceland things could get quite complex. 

[nelson]

Read an interesting analysis of the likely result of the government negotiations by Icelandic political journalist Þórður Snær Júlíusson. He starts out by pointing out that PP and LG have the upper hand with 21 seats combined against IP's 16 and that PP is now controlled by its left with the former LG MP the coop affiliated Ásmundur Einar Daðason (the current Minister of Social Affairs and Children) as their de facto no. 2. He thinks that IP will have to accept big increases in welfare spending and infrastructure since PP and LG have several credible alternatives among the liberal parties and the People's Party. In return IP will get to oversee the modernisation and upgrading of Icelandic society that’s crucial to their donors in the business community and a well-run government that secures the status quo on fishing, farming and EU relations. Plus they get to govern and fill a lot of seats in the cabinet. As he puts it: "and the Independence Party is allowed to remain in government - governing - which is always its main goal above all else. To tie the knot on this settlement, the number of ministries will be increased and the Independence Party will get most of them."

On the distribution of portfolios he says that PP's priority is getting the Ministry of Finance for party leader Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson and a powerful Ministry of Infrastructure for Ásmundur Einar Daðason, and that they will accept Katrín Jakobsdóttir as PM. Sigurður Ingi doesn't have a big ego and it's not possible for PP to get both Finance and the PM in a coalition government, so that makes sense. It just raises the question where to place IP leader Bjarni Benediktsson as I don’t see how he can oust the current Minister of Foreign Affairs Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson, who is the leader of the party’s right wing. If Bjarni Benediktsson accepts to sit in a government that leans left on important issues he’ll need to placate his own right wing and removing their leader from Foreign Affairs to a less prestigious post doesn't seem feasible in that situation. On the other hand if Bjarni wants to uphold his internal authority within the party he can’t just settle for some impotent title as Deputy PM but would need something substantial. The current Minister of Justice is the Crown Princess of his own moderate wing Áslaug Arna Sigurbjörnsdóttir, who is no doubt his preferred successor and I doubt he’ll demote her. 

On policy Þórður Snær writes that:

"The Independence Party will not get a low flat tax rate, declining government spending or a sharp increase in private companies' involvement in the health or education sectors in return for continued government co-operation. On the other hand they will get their desired emphasis on energy export, the continued digitalisation of public services and some sort of review of the insurance systems for senior citizens and the disabled”.

On the campaign he confirms my impression that this was a more civilized and substantial campaign than the previous ones: “In many ways, the recent election campaign was exemplary. The election was the first since 2007 that can be said to have taken place in a normal way. The parties presented clear policies and often discussed real ideological differences. The emphasis on demolition (of opponents) was minimal and the anonymous slurs (in online campaigns against the Pirates and LG) that were so prominent in 2016 and 2017 were barely visible this time. For that one can be pleased.”

[nelson]

Gallup, unsurprisingly, think they did a good job. I tend to agree. 

From Morgunblaðið: 

"In general, the results of the main opinion polls conducted just before the recent parliamentary elections were fairly close to the election results.

Gallup points this out in an announcement. It says that when the latest survey of the company, which was published on Friday the 24th of September, is compared with the results of the election, it can be seen that the average deviation in the Gallup survey is only 1.2 percentage points.

"When looking only at the parties that ran nationally, the average deviation is slightly higher, or 1.3 percentage points, and 1.4 percentage points if only those parties that received more than 1% support are examined. These must be considered small deviations and Gallup's average deviation is the lowest of the polling companies that published polls before the election," says the announcement.

"In the last days covered by Gallup's final poll, there was a gradual increase in the Progress Party's support, but the poll did not take place in the last 24 hours before the election. This increase in the party's support was reflected in the election results. "

A similar pattern can be seen in some of the other parties, although it is not as clear.

It is also pointed out that Gallup's polls have previously shown that a large proportion of voters decide on election day which party to vote for.

"In recent Gallup polls, between 26-29% of voters have decided on election day. It is therefore clear that there can be changes in people's opinion from the time the last survey is conducted until the election. It can be assumed that more changes will occur in the minds of voters when there are more parties competing and they are closer to each other. "

[nelson]

Turns out the daughter-in-law of the owner of the hotel where the ballots in the NW were counted posted pics on her instagram of piles of ballots lying on the tables in the empty hall after the initial count, which sort of undermines the claim that no "unauthorized persons" had access to the hall.

The National Electoral Commission states that they've "registered that the Central Electoral Committee in the NW constituency hasn't certified that the election has been conducted according to the rules" and notes that it's now up to the Althing to decide whether that should lead to invalidation of the result and a revote. 

Hopefully the Althing's ballot committee will agree on recommending a revote, everything else would be too controversial. 

[nelson]

Update on the government negotiations based on media reports relying on the usual "anonymous sources" within the government parties, but from usually reliable journalists.

There are people within all three parties’ parliamentary groups that would prefer other options. It seems that the IP right wing would prefer replacing LG with People's to get a free hand on energy extraction (geothermal and hydro) and private involvement in the healthcare sector despite People's costly welfare promises, which would also allow them to retain both the Ministry of Finance and Foreign Affairs (with PP getting the PM). And people within both PP and LG that would prefer replacing IP with either People’s/SDA or Reform/SDA.

Bjarni Benediktsson is said to be content with switching from Finance to Foreign Affairs and a apparently prepared the face the ire of his right wing for demoting Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson. PP wants to separate agriculture from fishing and create a new Ministry of Agriculture and Food and merge Housing and some other matters (incl. the electricity network) currently under the Ministry of Industries into the Ministry of Transport and Municipal Affairs to create a Ministry of Infrastructure. The also consider creating a Ministry of Climate to handle the green transformation which would weaken LG's Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources. IP wants Health and are also eyeing the Ministry of Education and Culture if PP deputy leader Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir is promoted to something "bigger". It would be very difficult for LG to give up Health given that them having it acts as a safeguard against administrative measures increasing the involvement of private corporations.

The current distribution is:

LG: Prime Minister, Ministry of Health, Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (3)

IP: Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Industries and Innovation, Ministry of Fisheries and Agriculture (5)

PP: Ministry of Transport and Local Government (to be expanded), Ministry of Social Affairs and Equality, Ministry of Education and Culture (3)

The bolded ones should stay with their current "owners" and the red ones are certain to be transferred.

...

The main issues the parties disagree on are:

IP & PP want increased energy extraction as part of the climate transformation (with PP being less ambitious/more conservationist).
LG and PP want increased welfare spending and more redistribution (though in different ways and to a different extent), while IP want lower taxer and a balanced budget.
LG wants big investments in public housing, which IP object to - they instead want to make it easier for young people to become home owners.
IP and PP want more private sector involvement in healthcare, which LG opposes.
PP wants big reimbursements of costs to foreign movie companies filming in Iceland (a big boost to the rural communities used a locations), which IP considers a waste of money.

There is a limit to how much LG can stretch themselves on energy use given how central an issue nature conservation is for them and the is a limit to how far left IP can move on taxes and spending, and Bjarni Benediktsson could very well face a rebellion from his right wing if he concedes too much. But it’s still considered most likely that an agreement is reached.

[nelson]

Calculator comparing each of the four final polls with the election result: www.ruv.is/frett/2021/10/01/konnun-gallup-var-naest-nidurstodu-kosninganna

[nelson]

Bergþór Ólason from the Centre Party (who was the MP most tainted by the Klaustur scandal) had the highest numbers of strikethroughs with 2.27% of Centre voters in the NW constituency crossing his navn. IP leader Bjarni Benediktsson had the highest number of strikethroughs, but he's running in the big SW constituency, so they make up a much lower percentage. If 25% of a party's voters in a constituency cross out his/her name the candidate is removed from the list. The number of strikethroughs were quite low this year, so fewer candidates that are controversial within their own parties have been nominated. 

...

The Althing will convene on Monday and nominate a ballot committee. Some  opposition politicians (notably from SDA) now want a national revote, saying it would be unfair to have a revote in just one constituency (given the voters in the NW would vote knowing the Socialists didn't make the threshold and that this will influence their vote). But I don't see the governing parties being willing to accept that. The options seem to be a) letting the revote stand b) setting aside the revote as the the ballots had not been sealed and observers from all parties weren't present during the recount and using the first count c) revote in the NW constituency. 

[nelson]

Oct 2, 2021 15:57:02 GMT nelson said:

The Althing will convene on Monday and nominate a ballot committee. Some  opposition politicians (notably from SDA) now want a national revote, saying it would be unfair to have a revote in just one constituency (given the voters in the NW would vote knowing the Socialists didn't make the threshold and that this will influence their vote). But I don't see the governing parties being willing to accept that. The options seem to be a) letting the revote stand b) setting aside the revote as the the ballots had not been sealed and observers from all parties weren't present during the recount and using the first count c) revote in the NW constituency. 

While that was reported earlier, it's now assumed that the Althing won't be reconvened until the time limit for complaints about the election results has expired which the leaders of the parliamentary parties of the governing parties apparently claim is the most correct procedure, and that's four weeks from the official announcement of the results by the National Electoral Commission, which happened Friday. So it's now estimated that the Althing will convene towards the end of the month. If so a potential revote in the NW constituency can't happen until well into November, which seems very late. I assume this means that the governing parties aren't prepared to agree to a revote. 

The public broadcaster RÚV's political editor thinks we'll know by the middle of next week whether the government negotiations will be successful or not, with the divergent views on the Highlands National Park, energy extraction, healthcare and fiscal policy being the main stumbling blocks. 

[nelson]

The parties have now nominated their members of the Preparatory Ballot Committee, all elected on constituency seats so without a direct personal interest in the distribution of the levelling seats. It's expected to meet tomorrow and discuss the situation regarding the NW constituency. It has six representatives from the governing parties and three from the opposition, and IP/PP have a majority on their own. 

IP: Birg­ir Ármanns­son, Diljá Mist Ein­ars­dótt­ir and Vil­hjálm­ur Árna­son
PP:  Lín­eik Anna Sæv­ars­dótt­ir and Haf­dís Hrönn Haf­steins­dótt­ir
LG: Svandís Svavars­dótt­ir

SDA: Þór­unn Svein­bjarn­ar­dótt­ir  
Pirates: Björn Leví Gunn­ars­son 
People's: Inga Sæ­land 

Reform and Centre will each appoint an observer to the committee.

EDIT: It's a preparatory ballot committee which will discuss the complaints and the conduct of the election, and prepare an opinion on whether the election is considered valid and whether the members of parliament can be approved. An actual Ballot Committee will be appointed when parliament convenes for the first time, and will deliver an opinion based on the work of the preparatory ballot committee. But in practice the Ballot Committee follows the advice of the Preparatory Ballot Committee (and its membership is usually fully or nearly identical). 

[nelson]

The Pirate Party has offered to provide confidence and supply for a minority government of PP, LG and SDA, which would then have a 33-30 majority behind it. They are also prepared to include the People's Party in such a deal. 

This would allow the Pirates to back a non-IP government without reneging on their promise to only go into government if there is a vote on a new Constitution based on the Constitutional Council's draft from 2012, which PP (and in reality also LG) can't accept. 

Iceland has no tradition for minority governments and I still see PP, LG, SDA, People's as the most realistic alternative if the government negotiations break down, but there is no doubt that a PP/LG/SDA government would be able to get nearly all of its policies through the Althing and it would of course give both PP and LG more influence and ministries than they'd have in a coalition with IP. 

[rcronald]

Oct 3, 2021 12:39:20 GMT nelson said:

The Pirate Party has offered to provide confidence and supply for a minority government of PP, LG and SDA, which would then have a 33-30 majority behind it. They are also prepared to include the People's Party in such a deal. 

This would allow the Pirates to back a non-IP government without reneging on their promise to only go into government if there is a vote on a new Constitution based on the Constitutional Council's draft from 2012, which PP (and in reality also LG) can't accept. 

Iceland has no tradition for minority governments and I still see PP, LG, SDA, People's as the most realistic alternative if the government negotiations break down, but there is no doubt that a PP/LG/SDA government would be able to get nearly all of its policies through the Althing and it would of course give both PP and LG more influence and ministries than they'd have in a coalition with IP. 

Asking as someone with basically no knowledge in Icelandic politics, why not a IP,PP and CP coalition?

[nelson]

Oct 4, 2021 5:04:26 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 3, 2021 12:39:20 GMT nelson said:

The Pirate Party has offered to provide confidence and supply for a minority government of PP, LG and SDA, which would then have a 33-30 majority behind it. They are also prepared to include the People's Party in such a deal. 

This would allow the Pirates to back a non-IP government without reneging on their promise to only go into government if there is a vote on a new Constitution based on the Constitutional Council's draft from 2012, which PP (and in reality also LG) can't accept. 

Iceland has no tradition for minority governments and I still see PP, LG, SDA, People's as the most realistic alternative if the government negotiations break down, but there is no doubt that a PP/LG/SDA government would be able to get nearly all of its policies through the Althing and it would of course give both PP and LG more influence and ministries than they'd have in a coalition with IP. 

Asking as someone with basically no knowledge in Icelandic politics, why not a IP, PP and CP coalition?

a) Centre is led by the Billy no mates of Icelandic politics, former PM Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, who had to resign after his involvement in the Panama Papers scandal in 2016 and his bizarre handling of it. While always a bit of an oddball in many ways SDG has become increasingly weird (arguably unhinged) in recent years. He's distrusted by both the IP establishment and his former colleagues in PP. 

b) Since Centre broke away from PP the two parties have moved in different directions. Centre claimed to be to the right of IP during the campaign and used the classic IP slogan "Back off!" (anti-government overreach/intrusion) while PP had their most left wing campaign in decades, returning to the "Coop Socialist" part of their tradition (the word used in Icelandic litt. means community-minded, and while lefty it's broader than the usual dictionary translation to "Socialism). Centre by now has morphed into a fairly standard right wing populist party while PP is a centrist party that's slightly left leaning on economics. If you're familiar with Norwegian politics you can reverse the positions of the Centre Party and Progress Party in the two countries: Centre (I) = Progress (N) and Progress (I) = Centre (N). PP have the decisive seats and after a left-leaning campaign claiming that "the future is decided by the Middle" it's not in their interest to govern with two parties to their right and none to their left. 

c) IP/PP/Centre only have 32 seats, and 33 is considered the minimum necessary for a functioning government by the two traditional "power parties" IP and PP. Iceland has fairly lax party discipline and relying on a one seat majority is seen as too unstable.

d) Centre campaigned on giving a third of the shares in publicly owned Íslandsbanki as a "present" to all adult Icelanders and also giving them a substantial annual natural resources dividend from the energy and fishing quota fees. IP wants to privatize the banks by selling them to the business community (their donors) and they want low fees on natural resources, plus "fiscal responsibility". 

[nelson]

On a talkshow former MP Brynjar Níelsson, who is one of the grand old men on the IP right wing, came out strongly against continuing the current government and said that the party's only way into government was a coalition with PP and Reform. The editor of the IP aligned political magazine Þjóðmál and the business editor of Morg­un­blaðið agreed. There is no chance of those three saying this publicly unless it's the consensus view on the IP right. So Bjarni Benediktsson will have to overcome strong internal resistance if he wants to continue the grand coalition, and I'm not sure he has the strength to do that. 

As previously mentioned I don't see Reform being motivated to go into a protectionist government with no concessions on trade/tariffs, subsides, quotas and the EU, especially because PP's left leaning election promises won't allow for significant tax cuts in return. But it's interesting that the IP right seem to have given up on the People's Party as a replacement for LG. 

Brynjar said it's hopeless to implement a green transformation of the economy when LG wants to conserve everything and labelled the conservation orders the Minister of the Environment issued shortly before the election as "abuse of power", he also accused the IP leadership of being weak by not demanding that the Minister of Health Svan­dís Svav­ars­dóttir (LG) resigned during the election campaign due to her "multiple transgressions" (which I assume refers to Covid related measures). 

[nelson]

Birg­ir Þór­ar­ins­son has defected from the Centre Party to IP, stating that the party has not been able to put the Klaustur scandal behind it and that "more has come to light", but most likely just realizing Centre is doomed and trying to salvage his own political career. 

IP now has 17 seats vs. 21 for PP and LG combined, which probably increases the chance of a 13th ministry being created if they end up forming a new coalition (6/4/3 would now be the most proportional distribution). 

Centre will likely still be able to form a parliamentary group since they had the required three seats "immediately following the election", but it's never happened before that a party loses its third seat before the Althing has been seated so there's no precedent. 

[nelson]

Maskína poll of whether voters trust the results of the election showing 23% of respondents don't trust the results.

"Do you trust the results of the newly held parliamentary elections?"

Very much (litt. Very well) 30.0%
Quite a lot (litt. Quite well) 31.3%
Moderately 15.4%
Quite badly 16.4%
Very badly 6.9%

Ironically the voters in the NW have the most trust in the results (least trust in the South, the other constituency that had a recount). Too small subsamples for the parties to be reliable, but they confirm that Pirate and the Socialist voters have the least trust in "the system", while the voters backing the establishment parties trust them the most, only 1.9% of IP voters and 8.3% of PP voters distrust the result. More than 30% of Reform voters distrust the results, which is a surprisingly high number for an upper middle class based IP breakaway party (even if they lost a constituency seat on the NW recount) but given the subsamples are so small it might just be a coincidence.

The least trusting respondents by share of distrust (Quite badly + Very badly):

Socialist voters 57.8%
Pirate voters 57.6%
People with low income 42.7%
Non-voters 42.5%
Young people (18-29) 37.6%
Singles 33.7%
South constituency residents 27.9% (only 17.3% in NW)
Women 24.7%

[nelson]

Oct 9, 2021 9:36:09 GMT nelson said:

Birg­ir Þór­ar­ins­son has defected from the Centre Party to IP, stating that the party has not been able to put the Klaustur scandal behind it and that "more has come to light", but most likely just realizing Centre is doomed and trying to salvage his own political career. 

He says that "influential people" within the Centre Party has systematically undermined him during the election campaign due to a grudge over his criticism of their handling of the Klaustur scandal. He claims switching parties is not a betrayal of his voters because he'll still work for the issues and views he presented during them campaign, but of course the condemnation of his conduct has been massive from nearly all sides. 

His alternate in the South constituency Erna Bjarnadóttir has also defected and says she'll represent IP if she becomes an MP.

[nelson]

The result of the school election (for pupils in elementary school) was even more fragmented than the adults' election. LG became the biggest party, and the Pirates polled far lower than last time (when they topped the poll). The Socialists were above the threshold and the Liberal Democracy party close to it, while the anti-vaxers got above 2%.  

LG 17.6
IP 13.7
Reform 10.7
Pirates 9.5
PP 9.3
SDA 9.3
People's 9.3
Centre 7.8
Socialists 5.8

Liberal Democracy 4.8
Responsible Future 2.1