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Post by matureleft on Feb 3, 2021 7:48:31 GMT
Takes place on 25 September.
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Post by matureleft on Feb 3, 2021 9:50:50 GMT
Here's the latest poll. www.gallup.is/frettir/fylgi-vidreisnar-eykst/Independence Party Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn Left-Green Movement Vinstrihreyfingin Progressive Party Framsóknarflokkurinn Social Democratic Alliance Samfylkingin Centre Party Miðflokkurinn Pirate Party Píratar People's Party Flokkur fólksins Reform Party Viðreisn Icelandic Socialist Party Sósíalistaflokkur Ísland |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on May 30, 2021 18:53:26 GMT
Preferred Icelandic PM poll from Maskína. Pretty crazy numbers that show that PM Katrín Jakobsdottir is still in a league of her own in Icelandic politics (the chairman of IP only being supported by 1/8 of voters in surreal given the party's traditional position in Iceland as the all-dominant natural governing party). On LG's recent party conference they decided they want to lead the next government, and the delegates accepted that a continuation of the current protectionist Grand Coalition can continue if the parliamentary party decides it's the best option available (two anti-coalition MPs have defected the SDA and the Pirates respectively in the current term so no internal opposition among the MPs).
Katrín could potentially lead three different coalitions:
a) the current protectionist Grand Coalition with IP and PP (would be hated by the Reykjavík grassroots and could lead to further defections if continued), it's getting harder to legitimize governing with "The Right" as the highland national park and ambitious climate policies are now in place and healthcare reforms are well under way while inequality and poverty have been rising. The People's Party are attacking LG mercilessly on this (growing soup kitchen queues, falling real wages, lack of affordable housing etc.).
b) a left/centre coalition with PP, SDA and the Pirates (replacing IP with SDA/Pirates). A left/centre coalition, that's the most economically leftist among the realistic options and balanced between protectionists (LG, PP) and free marketers (SDA, Pirates).
c) a coalition with the three freemarket/pro-EU parties: Reform, SDA and Pirates. Would be unpopular with "rural" LG, but equally popular with progressive and/or young voters in the Capitol Region.
The party leadership would prefer b) but the question is if it gets a majority and whether the Progress Party will be willing to enter into a coalition with the unruly and in their eyes "radical" Pirates (PP/Pirates is one of the biggest culture clashes in Icelandic politics), but they may if the alternative is a "liberal" government with Reform and the prospect of an EU referendum.
No polls have a centre left/left majority without a centrist party and with the Socialists more or less guaranteed to get a constituency seat in Reykjavík North (includes the Inner City) whether they pass the 5% threshold or not it seems impossible (the Socialists being a pure protest party formed by a conman/grifter (ex-Libertarian/Thatcherite) and filled with cranks and perpetually woke/intersectionalist types, so no chance of them supporting any remotely realistic government).
If both the Socialists and the People's Party get in (and the People's Party could get a constituency seat in the South without passing the threshold) Iceland would be looking at an unprecedented nine party parliament, which may be next to unworkable in a 63 member parliament (the eight in the current one is already a record) and lead to an unwieldy grand coalition and possibly new elections within a year.
Preferred PM:
Katrín Jakobsdóttir (Left Greens) 46.1%
Bjarni Benediktsson (Independence Party) 12.2%
Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir (Reform) 8.5%
Þórhildur Sunna Ævarsdóttir (Pirates) 6.5%
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson (Progress Party) 6.5%
Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (Centre Party) 6.0%
Logi Már Einarsson (Soc Dem Alliance) 5.4%
Inga Sæland (People's Party) 3.3%
The full survey hasn't been publicized so I don't know how the remaining answers are divided between "Other" and "Don't know" and whether respondents that didn't want to answer are excluded or not.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on May 31, 2021 12:47:10 GMT
The seat distribution from the previous Gallup poll (conducted throughout April) shows the difficulties in forming a coherent and functioning government, unless the polls change a lot. It has both the Socialists and the People's Party right at the threshold, with the latter just above it and the former below. The government is supported by 61% of voters, which i significantly more than the 48% that supports one of the three government parties, which is unusual for Iceland a likely reflecting support for he government's handling of the pandemic and especially for the PM (see the post above).
If the Socialists fail to meet the threshold (and they are at exactly 5% in this poll) their two levelling seats would go to the Left Greens and SDA, which would make it a lot likelier that a government without IP could be formed. So right now a vote for the far left is the best guarantee for the Independence Party stayinging in control. It's noticeable that the Pirates would get more constituency seats than the SDA and is one of only three parties that would get seats in all constituencies (the other being IP and LG).
Government alternatives with the Socialists passing the threshold (A) and without (B).
A.
Protectionist grand coalition (LG, IP, PP): 33
Leftists & Liberals (LG, SDA, Pirates, Reform): 30
Left/Centre (LG, SDA, Pirates, Progress): 31
Protectionist centre-right (IP, PP, Centre): 29
B.
Protectionist grand coalition (LG, IP, PP): 34
Leftists & Liberals (LG, SDA, Pirates, Reform): 32
Left/Centre (LG, SDA, Pirates, Progress): 33
Protectionist centre-right (IP, PP, Centre): 29
So if the Socialist pass the threshold they block both the left/centre options and may make a continuation of the current coalition the only realistic option.
The only realistic IP led government would rely on the People's Party passing the threshold and being willing to back the centre-right - it's a "culturally conservative" protest party that's (in some ways very..) left wing on welfare. Most of the IP establishment clearly prefers the current grand coalition to a government reliant on the People's Party. Reform and Progress/Centre (the latter is a split-off from the former) are on opposite ends of the protectionist-free market/"liberal" cleavage and it's not realistic to have both in a government.
...
National seat distribution with levelling seats in parenthesis:
IP 17
LG 9
Pirates 8 (1)
SDA 7 (2)
Progress 7
Reform 6 (3)
Centre 5 (1)
Socialists 3 (2)
People's Party 1
The 54 constituency seats:
Reykjavík South (9):
IP 3
LG 2
SDA 1
Reform 1
Pirates 1
Progress 1
Reykjavík North (9):
IP 2
LG 2
Pirates 2
Reform 1
SDA 1
Socialists 1
Southwest (11):
IP 5
LG 1
SDA 1
Pirates 1
Reform 1
Progress 1
Centre 1
South (9):
IP 3
LG 1
SDA 1
Pirates 1
Progress 1
Centre 1
People's 1
NE (9):
IP 2
LG 2
Progress 2
SDA 1
Pirates 1
Centre 1
NW (7)
IP 2
PP 2
LG 1
Pirates 1
Centre 1
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2021 12:55:18 GMT
The seat distribution from the previous Gallup poll (conducted throughout April) shows the difficulties in forming a coherent and functioning government, unless the polls change a lot. It has both the Socialists and the People's Party right at the threshold, with the latter just above it and the former below. The government is supported by 61% of voters, which i significantly more than the 48% that supports one of the three government parties, which is unusual for Iceland a likely reflecting support for he government's handling of the pandemic and especially for the PM (see the post above). If the Socialists fail to meet the threshold (and they are at exactly 5% in this poll) their two levelling seats would go to the Left Greens and SDA, which would make it a lot likelier that a government without IP could be formed. So right now a vote for the far left is the best guarantee for the Independence Party stayinging in control. It's noticeable that the Pirates would get more constituency seats than the SDA and is one of only three parties that would get seats in all constituencies (the other being IP and LG). Government alternatives with the Socialists passing the threshold (A) and without (B). A. Protectionist grand coalition (LG, IP, PP): 33 Leftists & Liberals (LG, SDA, Pirates, Reform): 30 Left/Centre (LG, SDA, Pirates, Progress): 31 Protectionist centre-right (IP, PP, Centre): 29 B. Protectionist grand coalition (LG, IP, PP): 34 Leftists & Liberals (LG, SDA, Pirates, Reform): 32 Left/Centre (LG, SDA, Pirates, Progress): 33 Protectionist centre-right (IP, PP, Centre): 29 So if the Socialist pass the threshold they block both the left/centre options and may make a continuation of the current coalition the only realistic option. The only realistic IP led government would rely on the People's Party passing the threshold and being willing to back the centre-right - it's a "culturally conservative" protest party that's (in some ways very..) left wing on welfare. Most of the IP establishment clearly prefers the current grand coalition to a government reliant on the People's Party. Reform and Progress/Centre (the latter is a split-off from the former) are on opposite ends of the protectionist-free market/"liberal" cleavage and it's not realistic to have both in a government. ... National seat distribution with levelling seats in parenthesis: IP 17 LG 9 Pirates 8 (1) SDA 7 (2) Progress 7 Reform 6 (3) Centre 5 (1) Socialists 3 (2) People's Party 1 The 54 constituency seats: Reykjavík South (9): IP 3 LG 2 SDA 1 Reform 1 Pirates 1 Progress 1 Reykjavík North (9): IP 2 LG 2 Pirates 2 Reform 1 SDA 1 Socialists 1 Southwest (11): IP 5 LG 1 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Reform 1 Progress 1 Centre 1 South (9): IP 3 LG 1 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Progress 1 Centre 1 People's 1 NE (9): IP 2 LG 2 Progress 2 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Centre 1 NW (7) IP 2 PP 2 LG 1 Pirates 1 Centre 1 Out of interest, what issues are there to be culturally conservative about? Iceland is very secular, living together is the norm, there are no black people and being gay is just not an issue at all. They have one prison and most prisoners go out to work. I recall when we were there , a local told us that there was only one murderer in the prison but he had killed his wife and everyone knew she was a bitch and deserved it, so he would be on parole soon! |
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Post by carlton43 on May 31, 2021 13:42:11 GMT
The seat distribution from the previous Gallup poll (conducted throughout April) shows the difficulties in forming a coherent and functioning government, unless the polls change a lot. It has both the Socialists and the People's Party right at the threshold, with the latter just above it and the former below. The government is supported by 61% of voters, which i significantly more than the 48% that supports one of the three government parties, which is unusual for Iceland a likely reflecting support for he government's handling of the pandemic and especially for the PM (see the post above). If the Socialists fail to meet the threshold (and they are at exactly 5% in this poll) their two levelling seats would go to the Left Greens and SDA, which would make it a lot likelier that a government without IP could be formed. So right now a vote for the far left is the best guarantee for the Independence Party stayinging in control. It's noticeable that the Pirates would get more constituency seats than the SDA and is one of only three parties that would get seats in all constituencies (the other being IP and LG). Government alternatives with the Socialists passing the threshold (A) and without (B). A. Protectionist grand coalition (LG, IP, PP): 33 Leftists & Liberals (LG, SDA, Pirates, Reform): 30 Left/Centre (LG, SDA, Pirates, Progress): 31 Protectionist centre-right (IP, PP, Centre): 29 B. Protectionist grand coalition (LG, IP, PP): 34 Leftists & Liberals (LG, SDA, Pirates, Reform): 32 Left/Centre (LG, SDA, Pirates, Progress): 33 Protectionist centre-right (IP, PP, Centre): 29 So if the Socialist pass the threshold they block both the left/centre options and may make a continuation of the current coalition the only realistic option. The only realistic IP led government would rely on the People's Party passing the threshold and being willing to back the centre-right - it's a "culturally conservative" protest party that's (in some ways very..) left wing on welfare. Most of the IP establishment clearly prefers the current grand coalition to a government reliant on the People's Party. Reform and Progress/Centre (the latter is a split-off from the former) are on opposite ends of the protectionist-free market/"liberal" cleavage and it's not realistic to have both in a government. ... National seat distribution with levelling seats in parenthesis: IP 17 LG 9 Pirates 8 (1) SDA 7 (2) Progress 7 Reform 6 (3) Centre 5 (1) Socialists 3 (2) People's Party 1 The 54 constituency seats: Reykjavík South (9): IP 3 LG 2 SDA 1 Reform 1 Pirates 1 Progress 1 Reykjavík North (9): IP 2 LG 2 Pirates 2 Reform 1 SDA 1 Socialists 1 Southwest (11): IP 5 LG 1 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Reform 1 Progress 1 Centre 1 South (9): IP 3 LG 1 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Progress 1 Centre 1 People's 1 NE (9): IP 2 LG 2 Progress 2 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Centre 1 NW (7) IP 2 PP 2 LG 1 Pirates 1 Centre 1 Out of interest, what issues are there to be culturally conservative about? Iceland is very secular, living together is the norm, there are no black people and being gay is just not an issue at all. They have one prison and most prisoners go out to work. I recall when we were there , a local told us that there was only one murderer in the prison but he had killed his wife and everyone knew she was a bitch and deserved it, so he would be on parole soon! Well ! Well! Mike. "... and everyone knew ..." "... she was a bitch ..." "...and 'deserved' it ..." Wow! Just wow! Prosecuter, judge and jury. Evidence of one informant. You are a fully paid up Populist Mike. Welcome aboard. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on May 31, 2021 13:59:02 GMT
Out of interest, what issues are there to be culturally conservative about? Iceland is very secular, living together is the norm, there are no black people and being gay is just not an issue at all. They have one prison and most prisoners go out to work. I recall when we were there , a local told us that there was only one murderer in the prison but he had killed his wife and everyone knew she was a bitch and deserved it, so he would be on parole soon! In addition to its normal meaning Icelandic also uses "conservative" and "liberal" to denote the protectionist/nationalist vs. free market/"globalist" cleavage, which also includes whether the whole country should be populated, whether "rural lifestyle" should be protected etc. so these issues take on a cultural dimension. Iceland does have a state church, and negative attitudes to Islam is a factor, as is the extent of immigration (a quarter of their workforce are immigrants and the number is growing, incl. in smaller communities in the SW and NE). The People's Party is generally anti-immigration, pro-rural lifestyle, anti-globalization, anti-foreign influence (incl. the hated EU, of course), pro-state church, pro-strict language policies and upholding a homogenous national culture, anti-"woke"/PC and pro-alcohol monopoly. They are fairly low key/dog whistling about the more controversial of these things, but nevertheless basically a party for people who are economically leftist (mainly because they're poor, chronically ill or disabled), but dislike the left/"progressives" as elitist and not sharing their values. ... It's not completely correct there are no black people in Iceland, there are some refugees, adoptees (and their children) and descendants of AA soldiers, not that being anti-Black is much of a factor in Nordic xenophobia/racism. It's all about Islamophobia and opposition to "domineering and aggressive clan cultures". Iceland does start to have the first problems with ethnic Icelanders removing their children from immigrant heavy schools etc. There are more than one prison in Iceland, until recently they only had 1.5 murders a year on average, but it's a bit higher now and some murders and assaults are related to the drug trade - it's no longer just "domestic violence among old drunks gone to far". They also have organized crime incl. branches of international biker gangs and some Asian, Baltic and Polish groups. "Police estimate that 15 organized crime groups operate in Iceland, Morgunblaðið reports. Organized crime activity has been rapidly on the rise in the country in recent years."icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/politics_and_society/2021/02/26/fighting_organized_crime_in_iceland/ |
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2021 14:30:22 GMT
Out of interest, what issues are there to be culturally conservative about? Iceland is very secular, living together is the norm, there are no black people and being gay is just not an issue at all. They have one prison and most prisoners go out to work. I recall when we were there , a local told us that there was only one murderer in the prison but he had killed his wife and everyone knew she was a bitch and deserved it, so he would be on parole soon! Well ! Well! Mike. "... and everyone knew ..." "... she was a bitch ..." "...and 'deserved' it ..." Wow! Just wow! Prosecuter, judge and jury. Evidence of one informant. You are a fully paid up Populist Mike. Welcome aboard. errrrr....I wasn't making any comment on whether I agreed with the statement or not, but Iceland is an intriguing place and I get the impression things happen there which wouldn't elsewhere. Given that the population is so small, the number of political parties is remarkable, and I'm interested to know within what sort of issues the cultural conservatism displays itself. Iceland is certainly culturally 'distinctive' and they have a very strong adherence to being Icelandic and in particular, preserving their language - even though almost everyone there speaks English, and most speak Danish and at least one other language too. |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on May 31, 2021 14:33:17 GMT
The founder and leader of the People's Party, Inga Sæland (61), is a blind lawyer from the North with a grandmotherly "salt of the earth" image who rose to fame as an X factor contestant and her deputy has a background in the main disabled persons' rights organization, and the disabled and chronically ill still form a core constituency, but it has also attracted some people with a right wing populist background (though some have also left for the Centre Party, incl. two of their four MPs), their current party secretary once led the tiny Liberal Party, which was basically an Icelandic version of the Norwegian Progress Party.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771 
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 31, 2021 14:37:41 GMT
It's not completely correct there are no black people in Iceland, there are some refugees, adoptees (and their children) and descendants of AA soldiers, not that being anti-Black is a factor in Nordic xenophobia/racism. It's all about Islamophobia and opposition to "domineering and aggressive clan cultures". Iceland does start to have the first problems with ethnic Icelanders removing their children from immigrant heavy schools etc. ' Carl Carlson is "famously" a black Icelander. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2021 14:43:13 GMT
Out of interest, what issues are there to be culturally conservative about? Iceland is very secular, living together is the norm, there are no black people and being gay is just not an issue at all. They have one prison and most prisoners go out to work. I recall when we were there , a local told us that there was only one murderer in the prison but he had killed his wife and everyone knew she was a bitch and deserved it, so he would be on parole soon! In addition to it's normal meaning Icelandic also uses "conservative" and "liberal" to denote the protectionist/nationalist vs. free market/"globalist" cleavage, which also includes whether the whole country should be populated, whether "rural lifestyle" should be protected etc. so these issues take on a cultural dimension. Iceland does have a state church, and negative attitudes to Islam is a factor, as is the extent of immigration (a quarter of their workforce are immigrants and the number is growing, incl. in smaller communities in the SW and NE). The People's Party is generally anti-immigration, pro-rural lifestyle, anti-globalization, anti-foreign influence (incl. the hated EU, of course), pro-state church, pro-strict language policies and upholding a homogenous national culture, anti-"woke"/PC and (very low key) anti-trans, pro-alcohol monopoly. They are fairly low key/dog whistling about the more controversial of these things, but nevertheless basically a party for people who are economically leftist (mainly because they're poor or disabled), but dislike the left/"progressives" as elitist and not sharing their values. ... It's not completely correct there are no black people in Iceland, there are some refugees, adoptees (and their children) and descendants of AA soldiers, not that being anti-Black is a factor in Nordic xenophobia/racism. It's all about Islamophobia and opposition to "domineering and aggressive clan cultures". Iceland does start to have the first problems with ethnic Icelanders removing their children from immigrant heavy schools etc. There are more than one prison in Iceland, they have 1.5 murders a year on average, and some murders and assaults are related to the drug trade - it's no longer just "domestic violence among old drunks gone to far". They also have organized crime incl. branches of international biker gangs and some Asian, Baltic and Polish groups. "Police estimate that 15 organized crime groups operate in Iceland, Morgunblaðið reports. Organized crime activity has been rapidly on the rise in the country in recent years."icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/politics_and_society/2021/02/26/fighting_organized_crime_in_iceland/Thanks - that's useful. More traditionalist, then, really - I'll have to ask what my Icelander Eurovision fan friends think. Mind you they live just outside Reykjavik and I'm pretty sure would vote LG. Iceland has lots of churches but hardly anyone goes, but then that's the same in all Scandinavian countries. And they marry same sex couples. And their trans rights legislation passed unanimously.... That murder rate is still remarkably low. When I was there it was before the building of the most recent prison, which looks very state-of-the-art - only 120 prisoners including those on remand ain't many compared to the number in the 'big house' in Walton just up the road from here! The Icelandic prison system is much more akin to Norway, though - again, its not exactly lock 'em up and throw away the key. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on May 31, 2021 16:44:17 GMT
In addition to it's normal meaning Icelandic also uses "conservative" and "liberal" to denote the protectionist/nationalist vs. free market/"globalist" cleavage, which also includes whether the whole country should be populated, whether "rural lifestyle" should be protected etc. so these issues take on a cultural dimension. Iceland does have a state church, and negative attitudes to Islam is a factor, as is the extent of immigration (a quarter of their workforce are immigrants and the number is growing, incl. in smaller communities in the SW and NE). The People's Party is generally anti-immigration, pro-rural lifestyle, anti-globalization, anti-foreign influence (incl. the hated EU, of course), pro-state church, pro-strict language policies and upholding a homogenous national culture, anti-"woke"/PC and (very low key) anti-trans, pro-alcohol monopoly. They are fairly low key/dog whistling about the more controversial of these things, but nevertheless basically a party for people who are economically leftist (mainly because they're poor or disabled), but dislike the left/"progressives" as elitist and not sharing their values. ... It's not completely correct there are no black people in Iceland, there are some refugees, adoptees (and their children) and descendants of AA soldiers, not that being anti-Black is a factor in Nordic xenophobia/racism. It's all about Islamophobia and opposition to "domineering and aggressive clan cultures". Iceland does start to have the first problems with ethnic Icelanders removing their children from immigrant heavy schools etc. There are more than one prison in Iceland, they have 1.5 murders a year on average, and some murders and assaults are related to the drug trade - it's no longer just "domestic violence among old drunks gone to far". They also have organized crime incl. branches of international biker gangs and some Asian, Baltic and Polish groups. "Police estimate that 15 organized crime groups operate in Iceland, Morgunblaðið reports. Organized crime activity has been rapidly on the rise in the country in recent years."icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/politics_and_society/2021/02/26/fighting_organized_crime_in_iceland/Thanks - that's useful. More traditionalist, then, really - I'll have to ask what my Icelander Eurovision fan friends think. Mind you they live just outside Reykjavik and I'm pretty sure would vote LG. Iceland has lots of churches but hardly anyone goes, but then that's the same in all Scandinavian countries. And they marry same sex couples. And their trans rights legislation passed unanimously.... That murder rate is still remarkably low. When I was there it was before the building of the most recent prison, which looks very state-of-the-art - only 120 prisoners including those on remand ain't many compared to the number in the 'big house' in Walton just up the road from here! The Icelandic prison system is much more akin to Norway, though - again, its not exactly lock 'em up and throw away the key. Attitudes to things like same-sex marriage and gay rights are social conservatism/liberalism to me. While cultural conservatism and traditionalism are closely related and not really related to moral issues. I'm a bit puzzled as to why you as a sociologist don't seem to distinguish clearly between social conservatism and cultural conservatism, while viewing traditionalism as clearly different to cultural conservatism. Cultural conservatism is basically a matter of protecting/preserving tradition and heritage. Wikipedia defines cultural conservatism as "protection of the cultural heritage of a nation state, or of a culture not defined by state boundaries. Cultural conservatism is sometimes concerned with the preservation of a language (..) and other times with the preservation of an ethnic group's culture" and says that "social conservatism describes conservative moral and social values or stances on socio-cultural issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage in opposition to social liberalism. Cultural conservatism refers more to norms and practices than it does to morals and values." That's more or less the way I used the term in. ... It's not correct no one goes to church in Iceland, even on regular Sundays (and there are plenty on Christmas and Easter). I think your view of these things are skewed if you only visit as a tourist or ask Icelanders that are themselves "progressives". Surveys show a very big generational gap when it comes to religious attitudes and beliefs, one of the biggest in Europe - if not the biggest (at least if you measure a whole country and not a region). I'm not sure why you're focused on the murder rate, but the Icelandic murder rate varies a lot because the numbers are so small, though that's mainly because it's such a small population. Between 2000 and 2016 there were an average of just 1.6 murders a year, but it's been higher in recent years with four homicides in both 2017 and 2020. The murder rate in recent years is higer than Portugal's and Poland's, broadly similar to Ireland and Australia's and only marginally below Germany's. So not extremely low by European standards. Iceland is still a very peaceful country, but it's not immune to international trends and e.g. one of the murders in 2017 was a female Latvian drug courier killed because she had tried to cheat a local drug cartel and in February this year a 33-year old resident Albanian drugdealer was executed by one of his countrymen in a gang related shooting. It may seem like a quaint and quirky place on the surface, but in many ways it's just another modern Western European nation with the same problems and tendencies as everywhere else. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2021 17:20:47 GMT
Because in contemporary terms, cultural and social are very closely linked - hence the idea of the 'culture wars'. Plaid Cymru are culturally conservative using that definition, but that doesn't tell us all that much about them other than their adherence or positive attitude to certain cultural practices. However, that doesn't make them fully-fledged traditionalists.
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Post by johnloony on May 31, 2021 23:48:32 GMT
Out of interest, what issues are there to be culturally conservative about? Iceland is very secular, living together is the norm, there are no black people and being gay is just not an issue at all. They have one prison and most prisoners go out to work. I recall when we were there , a local told us that there was only one murderer in the prison but he had killed his wife and everyone knew she was a bitch and deserved it, so he would be on parole soon! In addition to it's normal meaning Icelandic also uses "conservative" and "liberal" to denote the protectionist/nationalist vs. free market/"globalist" cleavage, which also includes whether the whole country should be populated, whether "rural lifestyle" should be protected etc. so these issues take on a cultural dimension. Iceland does have a state church, and negative attitudes to Islam is a factor, as is the extent of immigration ( a quarter of their workforce are immigrants and the number is growing, incl. in smaller communities in the SW and NE). The People's Party is generally anti-immigration, ... What sort of immigrants? Are they the usual type of European-country cheap workers (Polish, Romanian, Turkish, Indian) or more local (Norwegian, Danish, American)? |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 1, 2021 0:17:07 GMT
In addition to it's normal meaning Icelandic also uses "conservative" and "liberal" to denote the protectionist/nationalist vs. free market/"globalist" cleavage, which also includes whether the whole country should be populated, whether "rural lifestyle" should be protected etc. so these issues take on a cultural dimension. Iceland does have a state church, and negative attitudes to Islam is a factor, as is the extent of immigration ( a quarter of their workforce are immigrants and the number is growing, incl. in smaller communities in the SW and NE). The People's Party is generally anti-immigration, ... What sort of immigrants? Are they the usual type of European-country cheap workers (Polish, Romanian, Turkish, Indian) or more local (Norwegian, Danish, American)?
Poles are the number one nationality with 20,649, followed by the Danes and then Lithuanians. There are 1,159 Brits living there compared to 332 in 1998 (earliest website goes to).
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Jun 2, 2021 17:02:21 GMT
The new Gallup poll for May (it's conducted over a full month) doesn't show big changes, but it would move some marginal seats (incl. the People's Party's constituency seat in the South) and make it easier to form a Left/Centre or Left/Liberal government. Changes from April in parenthesis.
IP 23.5 (-0.3) 16 (-1)
Left Greens 14.7 (+0.4) 10 (+1)
SocDems 12.4 (+0.4) 8 (+1)
Pirates 11.0 (-1.0) 7 (-1)
Reform 10.9 (+1.3) 7 (+1)
PP 10.4 (+0.3) 7 (nc)
Centre 7.2 (-1.0) 5 (nc)
Socialists 5.4 (+0.4) 3 (nc)
People's Party 4.3 (-0.4) 0 (-1)
Others 0.2 (-0.1)
Gallup is significantly more accurate than other pollsters in Iceland, so there's little point in using a polling average to track voter movements and I'll just post the Gallup polls.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Jun 26, 2021 12:56:36 GMT
Both the government's proposal of a Highlands National Park covering 30% of the country (which was already watered down with a lot of concessions to the energy sector and neighbours using the highlands for grazing) and five changes to the Constitution failed to make it out of committee before the dissolution of the Althing (due to Independence Party and Progress Party members voting against the government platform). A significant defeat for the Left Greens and the Minister of Environment, who is the ex-chairman of Iceland's main conservation organisation Landvernd.
LG has already conceded to selling the government's controlling share of Iceland's second largest bank Islandsbanki pre-elections, and have problems with the country's largest fishing company Samherji being involved in various bribery scandals overseas (ranging from Namibia to the Faroe Islands) and trying to pressure journalist into covering this in a less critical way, the current Minister of Fishing from IP (and other IP bigwigs) have close ties to the company (right wing voters are a lot more forgiving of corruption than left wing voters in Iceland, so being in government with politicians that are connected to the scandal is a bigger problem for LG than those politicians being party members is for IP).
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Jul 4, 2021 12:12:10 GMT
New Gallup, with the Socialists above the threshold. SDA down, Pirates up. "Leftists and Liberals" on 47.4, with the Protectionist centre-right + Socialists on 47.3, which means they'd fall one (or possibly two) seats short given IP and PP's advantage in the "rural" constituencies. But the centre-left would have a majority with the Progress Party.
Centre-left: 36.5
Left Greens 14.7
Pirates 12.9
SDA 9.9
Reform: 10.9
Protectionst centre-right: 41.9
Independence 24.1
Progress 10.3
Centre 7.5
Socialists 5.4
People's Party 4.2
58.7% support the government, while only 49.1% would vote for a government party.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 4, 2021 23:59:50 GMT
Out of interest, what issues are there to be culturally conservative about? Iceland is very secular, living together is the norm, there are no black people and being gay is just not an issue at all. They have one prison and most prisoners go out to work. I recall when we were there , a local told us that there was only one murderer in the prison but he had killed his wife and everyone knew she was a bitch and deserved it, so he would be on parole soon! In addition to its normal meaning Icelandic also uses "conservative" and "liberal" to denote the protectionist/nationalist vs. free market/"globalist" cleavage, which also includes whether the whole country should be populated, whether "rural lifestyle" should be protected etc. so these issues take on a cultural dimension. Iceland does have a state church, and negative attitudes to Islam is a factor, as is the extent of immigration (a quarter of their workforce are immigrants and the number is growing, incl. in smaller communities in the SW and NE). The People's Party is generally anti-immigration, pro-rural lifestyle, anti-globalization, anti-foreign influence (incl. the hated EU, of course), pro-state church, pro-strict language policies and upholding a homogenous national culture, anti-"woke"/PC and pro-alcohol monopoly. They are fairly low key/dog whistling about the more controversial of these things, but nevertheless basically a party for people who are economically leftist (mainly because they're poor, chronically ill or disabled), but dislike the left/"progressives" as elitist and not sharing their values. ... It's not completely correct there are no black people in Iceland, there are some refugees, adoptees (and their children) and descendants of AA soldiers, not that being anti-Black is much of a factor in Nordic xenophobia/racism. It's all about Islamophobia and opposition to "domineering and aggressive clan cultures". Iceland does start to have the first problems with ethnic Icelanders removing their children from immigrant heavy schools etc. There are more than one prison in Iceland, until recently they only had 1.5 murders a year on average, but it's a bit higher now and some murders and assaults are related to the drug trade - it's no longer just "domestic violence among old drunks gone to far". They also have organized crime incl. branches of international biker gangs and some Asian, Baltic and Polish groups. "Police estimate that 15 organized crime groups operate in Iceland, Morgunblaðið reports. Organized crime activity has been rapidly on the rise in the country in recent years."icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/politics_and_society/2021/02/26/fighting_organized_crime_in_iceland/So the Icelandic People’s Party is the Icelandic version of the Katter’s Australian Party? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 5, 2021 0:33:21 GMT
The seat distribution from the previous Gallup poll (conducted throughout April) shows the difficulties in forming a coherent and functioning government, unless the polls change a lot. It has both the Socialists and the People's Party right at the threshold, with the latter just above it and the former below. The government is supported by 61% of voters, which i significantly more than the 48% that supports one of the three government parties, which is unusual for Iceland a likely reflecting support for he government's handling of the pandemic and especially for the PM (see the post above). If the Socialists fail to meet the threshold (and they are at exactly 5% in this poll) their two levelling seats would go to the Left Greens and SDA, which would make it a lot likelier that a government without IP could be formed. So right now a vote for the far left is the best guarantee for the Independence Party stayinging in control. It's noticeable that the Pirates would get more constituency seats than the SDA and is one of only three parties that would get seats in all constituencies (the other being IP and LG). Government alternatives with the Socialists passing the threshold (A) and without (B). A. Protectionist grand coalition (LG, IP, PP): 33 Leftists & Liberals (LG, SDA, Pirates, Reform): 30 Left/Centre (LG, SDA, Pirates, Progress): 31 Protectionist centre-right (IP, PP, Centre): 29 B. Protectionist grand coalition (LG, IP, PP): 34 Leftists & Liberals (LG, SDA, Pirates, Reform): 32 Left/Centre (LG, SDA, Pirates, Progress): 33 Protectionist centre-right (IP, PP, Centre): 29 So if the Socialist pass the threshold they block both the left/centre options and may make a continuation of the current coalition the only realistic option. The only realistic IP led government would rely on the People's Party passing the threshold and being willing to back the centre-right - it's a "culturally conservative" protest party that's (in some ways very..) left wing on welfare. Most of the IP establishment clearly prefers the current grand coalition to a government reliant on the People's Party. Reform and Progress/Centre (the latter is a split-off from the former) are on opposite ends of the protectionist-free market/"liberal" cleavage and it's not realistic to have both in a government. ... National seat distribution with levelling seats in parenthesis: IP 17 LG 9 Pirates 8 (1) SDA 7 (2) Progress 7 Reform 6 (3) Centre 5 (1) Socialists 3 (2) People's Party 1 The 54 constituency seats: Reykjavík South (9): IP 3 LG 2 SDA 1 Reform 1 Pirates 1 Progress 1 Reykjavík North (9): IP 2 LG 2 Pirates 2 Reform 1 SDA 1 Socialists 1 Southwest (11): IP 5 LG 1 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Reform 1 Progress 1 Centre 1 South (9): IP 3 LG 1 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Progress 1 Centre 1 People's 1 NE (9): IP 2 LG 2 Progress 2 SDA 1 Pirates 1 Centre 1 NW (7) IP 2 PP 2 LG 1 Pirates 1 Centre 1 Out of interest, what issues are there to be culturally conservative about? Iceland is very secular, living together is the norm, there are no black people and being gay is just not an issue at all. They have one prison and most prisoners go out to work. I recall when we were there , a local told us that there was only one murderer in the prison but he had killed his wife and everyone knew she was a bitch and deserved it, so he would be on parole soon! People are conservative about preserving Icelandic culture and language. Which isn't surprising given they were under Danish control until 1944. |
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